Plays for UFC 133

[Wrecked]

Sexyama 2.5 units to win 6.25 units

and a small (probably 1 unit) 4 team parlay:

Gustaff
Rory
Mendes
Hendricks

What are you guys playing?
These are mine so far.

Discuss!

[jin2daj]

i like sexyama as well. the value is there.

[Wrecked]

i like sexyama as well. the value is there.

I wish I could afford to play abit more on him!
I see the value in him as well and I doubt he will disappoint.

[Kaladarus]

Your math is off on the Sexyama play. Neither Vitor or Sexyama have impressed me much. The way the line keeps moving I will probably make a small play on Sexyama. Your parlay looks pretty good also. I can easily see that cashing.

I've made large plays on Rory between -185 and -212 and might add some on a decision prop.
Also played Hallman at +160 for a medium play, but may arb out some. Also may add decision prop.
I may take decision props on Rashad and Mendes closer to the fight if the lines look good.
Still undecided on the Gustafson fight. I like him to win, but missed some early numbers. I think his line may move more in our favor. Also may look to take props on that fight depending on the odds later this week.
Still very interested in odds for the rest of the card.

I take a lot of decision props. It seems crazy, but it's been working out well for me.

I like your plays so far. I think you would be best off making a couple more straight plays though to balance what you got and try to secure some profit. It's a hard card for straight plays because of all the big favorites. Good luck with what you got already.

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

Sexyama 2.5 units to win 3.125 units and a small (probably 1 unit) 4 team parlay: Gustaff Rory Mendes Hendricks What are you guys playing? These are mine so far. Discuss!

Wow you took it up the pooper with those sexyama odds...He's up to +240...you should be getting at least 5.5 units if you're willing to bet 2.5 on the asian can....regardless, it won't matter because he's a can and will lose..on another note, wow this is a terrible card

[Wrecked]

Your math is off on the Sexyama play. Neither Vitor or Sexyama have impressed me much. The way the line keeps moving I will probably make a small play on Sexyama. Your parlay looks pretty good also. I can easily see that cashing.

I've made large plays on Rory between -185 and -212 and might add some on a decision prop.
Also played Hallman at +160 for a medium play, but may arb out some. Also may add decision prop.
I may take decision props on Rashad and Mendes closer to the fight if the lines look good.
Still undecided on the Gustafson fight. I like him to win, but missed some early numbers. I think his line may move more in our favor. Also may look to take props on that fight depending on the odds later this week.
Still very interested in odds for the rest of the card.

I take a lot of decision props. It seems crazy, but it's been working out well for me.

I like your plays so far. I think you would be best off making a couple more straight plays though to balance what you got and try to secure some profit. It's a hard card for straight plays because of all the big favorites. Good luck with what you got already.

I may also make a straight play on Gustaff wins via decision!
What do you think about that? I don't see him finishing Hamill striking and Hamill's takedowns looked sluggish against Rampage.

[The Bet Master]

Gustaffson! Might take a risk on Pyle, not a big fan of Macdonald could see him getting submitted

[Wrecked]

Gustaffson! Might take a risk on Pyle, not a big fan of Macdonald could see him getting submitted

Gustaffson looks decent against Hamill imo.
I am a huge fan of Macdonald after seeing him throw Nate Diaz's dumbass around, god that was the best

[NutsINyoMOUTH]

2.5 units to win 3.1? do u always bend over and get a nice anal creampie like that for the oddsmakers?

[The Bet Master]

Gustaffson looks decent against Hamill imo.
I am a huge fan of Macdonald after seeing him throw Nate Diaz's dumbass around, god that was the best

I mean I like the kid but I don't think he's good enough for the odds he's getting. And yeah that was funny I think it was 3 times he slammed him right?

[bjpenn85]

but youre still able to see that he won two rounds against condit, and beat diaz? You think he will be submitted now, wow, how stupid is that.

[bjpenn85]

Hendricks is a 50 50 fight, sexiyama is in my opinion 65 35 in favour of belfort. Its to much risk. You risk losing it all here. You will have to play more to buffer the shit out of this horrible plays. If this is the way you normally play, you can hang up your betting gloves. TO MUCH RISK DUDE....TO MUUUUUCH RISSSSKKK.

[GunShard]

Akiyama has been a poor performer in the octagon.

[PunisherIND]

Sexyama 2.5 units to win 3.125 units

and a small (probably 1 unit) 4 team parlay:

Gustaff
Rory
Mendes
Hendricks

What are you guys playing?
These are mine so far.

Discuss!

my suggestion on the parlay: (1) change hendricks to hendricks/pierce goes the distance; and (2) add rashad (theres no way tito pulls another miracle out his ass).

GL

[Wrecked]

my suggestion on the parlay: (1) change hendricks to hendricks/pierce goes the distance; and (2) add rashad (theres no way tito pulls another miracle out his ass).

GL

I'm pretty confident in Hendricks straight up, more than I am about it going the distance. I'm not touching the Rashad and Tito fight....

[The Bet Master]

but youre still able to see that he won two rounds against condit, and beat diaz? You think he will be submitted now, wow, how stupid is that.

How is that stupid? Pyle isn't condit or Diaz.

[Kaladarus]

Hendricks is a 50 50 fight, sexiyama is in my opinion 65 35 in favour of belfort. Its to much risk. You risk losing it all here. You will have to play more to buffer the shit out of this horrible plays. If this is the way you normally play, you can hang up your betting gloves. TO MUCH RISK DUDE....TO MUUUUUCH RISSSSKKK.

Actually at your numbers of 65/35 Sexyama is still a +EV play at his current price of +261. Wrecked could easily have handicapped this slightly better than the 65/35 also.

I do agree though that you should make a few more straight up plays that are less risk than your underdog play and 4 fight parlay.

[bjpenn85]

I havent said that, i said that pyle by submission against rory macdonald is stupid. Put money on pyle submission you will soon find out, einstein.

[Kaladarus]

Macdonald has won grappling competitions against open age groups at 15 years old. It's hard to find information on his grappling and jiujitsu, but it's there. I think his sub defense and even sub offense are both under rated.

[Wrecked]

Macdonald has won grappling competitions against open age groups at 15 years old. It's hard to find information on his grappling and jiujitsu, but it's there. I think his sub defense and even sub offense are both under rated.

His grappling is outstanding man. I also believe his sub defense and offense are under-rated.

[bjpenn85]

Sometimes i wonder if some people on this forum do actually bet or spend real money. horrible horrible breakdown to believe pyle will sub macdonald. as time goes by i realize that there are a much bigger quantity of idiots than i expected when i first came. this whole fedor fight ended to early movement can go to hell.

[Wrecked]

Sometimes i wonder if some people on this forum do actually bet or spend real money. horrible horrible breakdown to believe pyle will sub macdonald. as time goes by i realize that there are a much bigger quantity of idiots than i expected when i first came. this whole fedor fight ended to early movement can go to hell.

I think the "fedor fight ended to early movement" is proof that people spend real money! Some people that were butthurt on the Fedor loss were obviously impelled to make a thread and vent about it on sbr

[Vaughany]

Pyle was unable to finish Hathaway with a sub even when he had him in a crucifix so can understand why some might argue that it's unrealistic tht he'll sub MacDonald who is a better version of Hathaway. Would take +1000 at least for me to even consider it. And SOTN would be a smarter move, not many likely submission finishes on this card.

[Wrecked]

Pyle was unable to finish Hathaway with a sub even when he had him in a crucifix so can understand why some might argue that it's unrealistic tht he'll sub MacDonald who is a better version of Hathaway. Would take +1000 at least for me to even consider it. And SOTN would be a smarter move, not many likely submission finishes on this card.

Oooo, good point, sounds like a good hedge.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Right now, I'm digging value in doggies:

Pyle -- love me some Rory Mac, but that line seems off...

Hamill -- Yeah, Gustaffson is a hella prospect, but the fact that Te Huna took him down doesn't bode well... I know he's training with Mr. Wonderful, etc; and actually hope he develops into a serious contender to Bones, but right now, I see value in a Hamill play (perhaps Hamill by decision)...

Ortiz

Yahya

(Yahya is more of a system play I started developing that I need to re-visit)

[snufflyjoe]

there is a few plays I like on this card
Belfort/Akiyama goes the distance yes@ 2.5 Belfort is coming off a brutal ko loss to silva I imagine a more careful Belfort in this fight, Belfort has the abillity to knock any MW out but I see Belfort keep it standing and try to win rounds, with Akiyama he has shown to have a solid chin and seems to go all out to recreate Griffin vs Bonnar in every fight I don't see Akiyama finishing Belfort but he could get a dodgy split decision.

I also like Gustaffson, Macdonald, and am interested in the line for Nam Phan and I may even put a small bet on Yaha @ 4.5 or I may see if my site gives any prop bets for the fight

[PunisherIND]

Right now, I'm digging value in doggies:

Pyle -- love me some Rory Mac, but that line seems off...

Hamill -- Yeah, Gustaffson is a hella prospect, but the fact that Te Huna took him down doesn't bode well... I know he's training with Mr. Wonderful, etc; and actually hope he develops into a serious contender to Bones, but right now, I see value in a Hamill play (perhaps Hamill by decision)...

Ortiz

Yahya

(Yahya is more of a system play I started developing that I need to re-visit)

i have a "formula" that i've developed as well. and based on the formula, i have wagers on pyle, hamill and ortiz (i dont particularly like any of them to win, but i see value in all of them). yahya isn't there yet, but i might have to make a play if he gets to +600 (or i may just do a submission prop).

but i have to say, my formula hasn't been doing well this year. i usually end up betting on dogs, which was great in 2010, but it seems the favorites are performing better in 2011. i have to revisit my formula to account for this trend.

[bjpenn85]

obviously, why even spend energy comment that. I really hope your akiyama pick goes home, but i must admit, i will love to see you fail as well. Because it is one hell of a risky and not understandable bet.