I have a really hard time seeing Roller being competitive in this match to the point of even lasting to decision. But I haven't seen a ton of his fights. He looked really overmatched by Thiago Tavares prior to the comeback KO and Pettis was outwrestling him. Roller has wrestling credentials, but I think Guillard has proven lately he doesn't struggle with wrestlers. Dunham and Waylon Lowe got merked. Couldn't keep him down and had to work extremely hard to even get it down.
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Guillard should TKO Roller, but I'm parlaying him in a few plays instead straight up to win.
He's still somewhat of an enigma, but has really impressed as of late with his speed an power so I think the (T)KO bet is probably safe. Depends on which Guillard shows up though. Roller can be tough, but this is a big step up for him imo.
Here are my Guillard parlays pending... obviously extremely thankful that Kongo somehow came through.
82095848-16/14/11 11:57am$100.00$158.50
Pending3 Team Parlay
Win6/26/11 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Cheick Kongo -180* vs Pat Barry
Pending7/2/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Ryan Bader -470* vs Tito Ortiz
Pending7/2/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Melvin Guillard -270* vs Shane Roller
82093585-16/14/11 10:18am$20.00$22.63
Pending2 Team Parlay
Win6/26/11 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Cheick Kongo -180* vs Pat Barry
Pending7/2/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Melvin Guillard -270* vs Shane RollerComment -
I think Bader my TKO is the best play next week.
It's at +300 and it's ridiculously an easy play imo.Comment -
I'm also on bader tko at +366 as I think he can pull it off. He doesn't have to go out cold and tito can be overwhelmed.Comment -
Cruz
Though... my one concern here is that Cruz has been a decision machine as of late (5 of 6 wins since 2009 by dec), and if this goes to the cards, might get some funky judging going on due to Faber's notoriety...Comment -
I understand the value of the bet, but Tito deserves credit. The guy is tough as balls to finish. That second Chuck Liddell fight, he took a beating and wasn't really finished. That stoppage was pretty lame. Machida landed a brutal knee to the liver and Tito still survived. I don't THINK "The Master" gets the TKOComment -
I'm ignoring Tito's paper history for this one. I know he's always been tough to finish, but I believe he is largely outclassed in this fight at this point in his career. Bader is bigger than Rashad and I think he'll have a chip on his shoulder after being embarrassed by Bones, who is obviously a beast. This is a tune up fight for Bader to get back on track and a sayonara fight for Ortiz (where's the motivation?). I think Tito gets outstruck easily and then outwrestled when he tries to take it down out of frustration. Tito may be able to hold his own with his tdd at first, but I think eventually Bader catches him and takes it down for the gnp stoppage. Tito should have retired a few years ago....
Either way, if Bader wins this I cash in. The TKO would just be a lot sweeter!Comment -
Alright, you sold me. I don't think much of the Master Bader, but I'll add him with Guillard in parlays.Comment -
Im very confident in bader and guillard. I like cruz too but im also nervous bout the judges.Comment -
Guillard has never really impressed me that much...to me he is along the lines of Gael Monfils in tennis, a ton of athleticism and talent but motivation and mental toughness are always in question. Bader seems as close to a lock as there is on the card. I love Cruz and think he just outclasses Faber these days, leaps and bounds better than years back when they first fought. Don't underestimate the revenge factor for Cruz either.Comment -
Understood. But when I think of the Master, I think of Eric friggin Schafer giving him fits and Keith Jardine being a few minutes away from a decision victory. He's NEVER impressed me. He's so muscular and stiff out there. He looked like dog shit against Rogerio when I fully expected him to TKO him following Nog's Brilz disaster. When has Bader ever really been impressive.
Let's look at his UFC run since winning TUF
Decisioning Carmelo Marrero. Big shit. Marrero was a wrestler. Easy matchup. He didn't finish
Decisioning Eric Schafer 29-28. That's shit. Schafer comfortably outstruck him for awhile and Bader was winded.
Knocking out Keith Jardine in the 3rd round. Jardine was taking over that fight prior to the KO.
Basically stalling out a decision against Rogerio. A lot of people feel Rogerio won.
Getting destroyed by Jones.
I'm sorry. I'm sure Tito will lose, since he's declining by the day. But I don't think The Master Bader is really that good at all.Comment -
word. ryan bader is not a lock. I rather prefer guillard. Proven player with KO power and can pick up points over three rounds.Comment -
I think Guillard by T/KO would be a good bet at around even money or better. Roller gets tagged in every single fight.Comment -
if youre not restricted at paddy you get guillard @ 2.5 KOComment -
Bader is going to come out swinging away.
Tito is going to get his ass dropped, Bader is a vicious striker when he's in the pocket. In the Jon Jones fight he couldn't do shit because of the reach advantage of Jon Jones.
Bader is going to stand and bang with Tito and he's going to grab a TKO victory.Comment -
If Roller doesn't get it to the ground. Then he's done.Comment -
im liking the bader guillard parlay too. i have no idea how tito can win and while roller has a shot at winning i think the odds lie with melvinComment -
Roller is tough, besides his 1st fight he has two losses. Ben Henderson which was an early stoppage IMO, and a loss with 9 secinds left in the 3rd round against Pettis (great fight). Otherwise he finished Tavares/Varner/Castillo/Njokuani. Not saying Melvin won't win but it is a harder match than many thinkComment -
I just think Evan Dunham was a tougher opponent than Roller. Dunham beat Sherk in most people's opinions.Comment -
Guillard is a lock and Bader is not IMO. I think Tito has a decent chance here. I took Tito Dec .2u to win 2.02uComment -
Im really liking Guillard by KO here...def. gonna playComment -
Thiago Tavares bettors had to have been pissed that match. Roller was freaking overmatched in all facets of the game during the bout.Comment -
Stephens has better movement and striking...and a much bigger right hand. And he wasn't able to touch melvin.
Better wrestlers in lowe, dunham, torres, tibau couldn't take him down effectively.
Dunham and torres have better submissions, but it still wasn't enough.
Unless guillard has some major mental lapse, he can't lose. This is something we have witnessed in the past. But nowadays he looks calm, composed, and patient.Comment -
lolComment -
I took Guillard by tko/ko .65u to win 1u. This has a lot of value, I don't see Roller survivingComment -
Yeah Guillard ITD is at +150 at bodog... so I had to throw down more on that.Comment -
I think guillard will win a decision.Comment -
After reviewing more tape on Roller -- specifically, his fight with Pettis, I've softened my stance on my harshness towards him as I was letting the freshness of his unimpressive performance vs Tavares cloud my judgment a bit...
After watching the Pettis fight, I'll say this -- Roller, although certainly not flashy by any means, is a guy that comes out and can drag out a W. I DO still think his stand-up is god awful and that Guillard will dominant that action when it takes place there, but I think Roller is gonna do everything in his power to work this to the mat. Now Roller doesn't have the most impressive takedowns I've ever seen by a mile, but he does get guys down, sometimes through his sheer ugly,relentless determination.
A thing to consider in his matchups vs Pettis and Tavares is that he didn't really push his wrestling in those matches as much as some may have expected -- but you have to keep in mind both Pettis and Tavares are well versed submission artists, so Roller seemed a little tentative with the TDs -- He's clearly no bjj escape whiz evidenced by his Sonnen-esque willingness to jump into several Pettis triangle attempts during their bout, including that one that tap'd him out with ~12 or so seconds remaining in the freaking fight. BUUUUT, in this fight with Guillard, he won't have to worry about getting sub'd by Melvin, specifically from the bottom... so I'm looking for Roller to work tirelessly for those takedowns.
So it then becomes a matter of his ability to succeed in getting those TDs and achieving dominant top control... and this is where it gets tricky because in order to get those TDs, he'll have to withstand an eminent shalacking from Guillard's stand-up, as Roller has demonstrated a willingness to use his face as a heavy bag at times. NOW, we all know Guillard can certainly be taken down (see Torres / Tibau fights), however he has demo'd a pretty impressive ability to scramble back to his feet with his Chairib's trademarked explosiveness, although vs a wrestler with serious top control (and perhaps some determined LnP), he may not be as successful... and of course, Guillard has shown he can KO a guy coming in for a takedown as well.
So my opinion has shifted a bit here... at the given odds, I don't like Guillard -270, as its a bit too pricey given my anticipation of how this fight plays out. If I were to make a straight up play, I'd roll with Roller given I see some value in his +245... from a ML perspective.
But I'm actually straddling some props here:
Roller by decision +561... just a pure value play here with the wrestler vs striker angle. It is certainly within the realm of possibility that Roller could sub Guillard as Roller's bread and butter subs (guillotines / rnc's) are Guillard's favorite ways to get sub'd, but Guillard has shown an increased fighter IQ since moving to Jackson's camp, and I'm counting on him surviving on the ground when it gets there.
Guillard by KO/TKO +135... if you're looking at a Guillard prop, don't bother with "inside the distance" at +100, get the extra juice of KO/TKO because Guillard will not be submitting Roller save for a 'submission due to strikes'
I don't necessarily care for the (lack of) value in a Guillard ML play because I don't see a Guillard decision win here... if he wins, I believe it's inside the distance, and furthermore via KO/TKO. I feel Guillard's method to victory is either by putting Roller's lights out easily standing, or he is successful enough in his scrambles to get it back standing before he inevitably KO's him... I just don't see Guillard outpointing his way to a decision (against a guy like Roller).
The only thing preventing me from loading up on big Roller dog play is his propensity for getting hit in the face, and Melvin Guillard is not a guy you want to fight when you have such a talent...
GL allComment -
Nice breakdown, Edu. I'm totally with you on this fight. Guillard should definitely be favoured on the basis that Roller is ridiculously hittable, but -270? In spite of his defensive deficiencies, Roller brings exactly the kind of game which has given Guillard huge problems in the past. The dude can really wrestle and he knows how to sink in a choke.Comment
