Any reason not go big on Overeem?

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  • FlashinLeather
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-04-11
    • 573

    #1
    Any reason not go big on Overeem?
    Fist off i'm a big fan of Overeem so I know it's not a good thing to place a big bet on him. But at a little over -300 it just seems like free money, I see the reem wining this fight 9 times out of 10. He has a good sprawl and with be able to toy with Werdum on his feet. This is looking like a 10 unit bet for me.

    Looking for what you guys think. I'll be sure to not let you guys know what I do and then come back after the fight and make the right call (just kidding....)
  • FlashinLeather
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-04-11
    • 573

    #2
    excuse my engrish in the thread title...
    Comment
    • Kaladarus
      SBR MVP
      • 11-11-09
      • 1876

      #3
      I like this play. Never been a big fan of -300 lines, but I will be making a play on Overeem here. He should have no problems keeping the fight on the feet like you said and out classes Werdum there.
      Comment
      • Ladle
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-21-11
        • 835

        #4
        Originally posted by FlashinLeather
        Fist off i'm a big fan of Overeem so I know it's not a good thing to place a big bet on him. But at a little over -300 it just seems like free money, I see the reem wining this fight 9 times out of 10. He has a good sprawl and with be able to toy with Werdum on his feet. This is looking like a 10 unit bet for me.

        Looking for what you guys think. I'll be sure to not let you guys know what I do and then come back after the fight and make the right call (just kidding....)
        If you're not signed up to Paddy Power, I'd recommend waiting for a prop bet on Overeem by T/KO. Their fight five years ago featured a 10-minute first round comprised of mostly clinching. Contrast what Overeem used to do in the clinch then, to how brutally he smashes guys now. If they clinch like that this time around, Overeem is going to knee Werdum's guts into oblivion.

        Also, keep in mind that Werdum's best takedowns are all from the clinch. That really doesn't bode well for him when you consider how Overeem's game and physique have evolved.
        Comment
        • snake11eyes
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-28-10
          • 618

          #5
          I'm ready to make one of those huge phantom bets as well. I have nothing to lose and everything to gain. But serious I don't see how Werdum wins this either.
          Comment
          • FlashinLeather
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 01-04-11
            • 573

            #6
            and i'm very excited to see the reem throw his knees with the thai clinch, his knees alone changed the rules of K1
            Comment
            • FlashinLeather
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 01-04-11
              • 573

              #7
              What you guys think the prop bet will be for Overeem by TKO/KO -200?
              Comment
              • Kaladarus
                SBR MVP
                • 11-11-09
                • 1876

                #8
                I hope it's a little better than that, but I could easily see it being around -200.
                Comment
                • Ladle
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-21-11
                  • 835

                  #9
                  Originally posted by FlashinLeather
                  What you guys think the prop bet will be for Overeem by TKO/KO -200?
                  Currently sitting at a peachy -120 on Paddy Power (I think it opened at around +120).
                  Comment
                  • Nick The Greek
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-31-09
                    • 189

                    #10
                    I like Overeem, but this will be the first credible HW he's ever fought. He's outmatched on the ground no question and hasn't gone past the 1st round since he turned into the incredible hulk, so his cardio is a huge question mark. All that said, I still favor him to clobber Werdum.
                    Comment
                    • clarkd32
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 09-15-06
                      • 863

                      #11
                      i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.
                      Comment
                      • Ladle
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-21-11
                        • 835

                        #12
                        Originally posted by clarkd32
                        i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.
                        Too much juice for my liking. Rogers can really punch and is more skilled standing and in the clinch than people give him credit for. If he lands just one snappy punch, Barnett's wheels could come off.
                        Comment
                        • Jordan23
                          SBR MVP
                          • 04-26-10
                          • 1227

                          #13
                          Rogers can definitely really put on Barnett if he fights the right fight. Rogers isn't bad in the clinch at all.
                          Comment
                          • FlashinLeather
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-04-11
                            • 573

                            #14
                            Honestly i'm ready for these guys to be in the UFC so we can see them fight 3 times a year. Would make it much easier to cap these fights. Both Barnett and Rogers are big unknowns to me. At least in the in the reem fight I know that it is a style mismatch for werdum.
                            Comment
                            • NunyaBidness
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 07-26-09
                              • 9345

                              #15
                              Barnett might not risk juicing for this fight after getting busted again. It's a no bet for me.
                              Comment
                              • Varker
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 04-03-10
                                • 283

                                #16
                                Overeem should be able to keep the fight standing and win.
                                Comment
                                • jin2daj
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-01-09
                                  • 816

                                  #17
                                  overeem might get the knockdown and stupidly follow werdum to the mat. thats teh only way i see werdum getting a sub.
                                  Comment
                                  • Vaughany
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 03-07-10
                                    • 45563

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Ladle
                                    Currently sitting at a peachy -120 on Paddy Power (I think it opened at around +120).
                                    Opened at 15/8, then straight after I maxed out with a massive £3.57 it went down to +120!
                                    Comment
                                    • Al0n3'
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 04-21-11
                                      • 57

                                      #19
                                      hate the 5dimes for putting prop ods so late... would go with overeem by ko\tko big!!!
                                      Comment
                                      • cheeese
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-22-11
                                        • 784

                                        #20
                                        I wouldn't sweat Overeem's cardio too much because I thought he would gass horribly during the K-1 Grand Prix and he was fine. It's a different sport but if this one goes 3 rounds he has probably lost anyway.
                                        Comment
                                        • DirtyX
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 06-05-11
                                          • 686

                                          #21
                                          Well considering that he has beat Reem before I would be cautious just based on that. Yes I know he beat him a really long time ago, but Verdum can always upset, and get a lucky sub. That being said, I think Reem is a good bet, even at -300.
                                          Comment
                                          • Ladle
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-21-11
                                            • 835

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by DirtyX
                                            Well considering that he has beat Reem before I would be cautious just based on that. Yes I know he beat him a really long time ago, but Verdum can always upset, and get a lucky sub. That being said, I think Reem is a good bet, even at -300.
                                            Overeem's game has evolved in such a way that this is now a very, very difficult match-up for Werdum.
                                            Comment
                                            • ttrace35
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 09-30-10
                                              • 10828

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by clarkd32
                                              i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.
                                              Go with Barnett by submission. Barnett is a submission wrestler. Miles ahead of rogers on the ground.
                                              Comment
                                              • Squareguy
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-30-10
                                                • 481

                                                #24
                                                How about this one?

                                                -Overeem's record against top ten opponents is 5-8. He hasn't fought a legit top ten since 06-07.

                                                -He has been out of the first round 9 times in 45 fights. Out of those 9 times, he has lost 5 of them.

                                                -Since he has been at heavy weight, he has 4 KO finishes against 4 guys who are all glass jawed or well passed their prime.
                                                1. Todd Duffee went lights out to a love tap from an out of shape grappler in his previous fight.
                                                2. Fujita was 2-4 in his last 6 fights before being thrown to Overeem.
                                                3. Brett Rogers facing a guy his own size with world class striking? Yeah that makes sense. (He shouldn't have fought Fedor either)
                                                4. Lee who? This guy was 1-1 when he had to fight Overeem...not to mention he came in over 300 pounds.

                                                -Werdum has been stopped once in the first round by the future UFC heavy weight champion. Werdum is a smart fighter and is going to try to drag this into deep waters. He is also at an all time high confidence level.
                                                Comment
                                                • NunyaBidness
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 07-26-09
                                                  • 9345

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Squareguy
                                                  How about this one?

                                                  -Overeem's record against top ten opponents is 5-8. He hasn't fought a legit top ten since 06-07.

                                                  -He has been out of the first round 9 times in 45 fights. Out of those 9 times, he has lost 5 of them.

                                                  -Since he has been at heavy weight, he has 4 KO finishes against 4 guys who are all glass jawed or well passed their prime.
                                                  1. Todd Duffee went lights out to a love tap from an out of shape grappler in his previous fight.
                                                  2. Fujita was 2-4 in his last 6 fights before being thrown to Overeem.
                                                  3. Brett Rogers facing a guy his own size with world class striking? Yeah that makes sense. (He shouldn't have fought Fedor either)
                                                  4. Lee who? This guy was 1-1 when he had to fight Overeem...not to mention he came in over 300 pounds.

                                                  -Werdum has been stopped once in the first round by the future UFC heavy weight champion. Werdum is a smart fighter and is going to try to drag this into deep waters. He is also at an all time high confidence level.

                                                  That's all great, but his best work in the past few years has been in K-1. The question is can Werdum get him to the ground.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • phillybadboy
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9383

                                                    #26
                                                    juice is too high anyways
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Squareguy
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-30-10
                                                      • 481

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                                      That's all great, but his best work in the past few years has been in K-1. The question is can Werdum get him to the ground.
                                                      K1 is not MMA. If it goes into round 2, Werdum wins more often than not.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Ladle
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 03-21-11
                                                        • 835

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Squareguy
                                                        K1 is not MMA. If it goes into round 2, Werdum wins more often than not.
                                                        Werdum will probably get a knee put through his stomach before he can drag Overeem to the ground, irrespective of what round it is. All of his best set-ups and takedowns are from the clinch.

                                                        It's simply a bad match-up for him.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sideloaded
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-21-10
                                                          • 7561

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by Ladle
                                                          Werdum will probably get a knee put through his stomach before he can drag Overeem to the ground, irrespective of what round it is. All of his best set-ups and takedowns are from the clinch.

                                                          It's simply a bad match-up for him.
                                                          Yeah just like Mark Hunt, oh wait he took Overoid down with ease.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Ladle
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 03-21-11
                                                            • 835

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by sideloaded
                                                            Yeah just like Mark Hunt, oh wait he took Overoid down with ease.
                                                            Firstly, that was less of a takedown and more of a shove. Compare Overeem's physique then to how it is now. He's not going to get shoved around so easily these days, and certainly not by Werdum.

                                                            Secondly, contrast Overeem's clinch ability then with his awesome clinch ability now. As of today, Overeem's wrestling from the clinch is probably the most serially overlooked single skill any high-level fighter has, up there with Hatsu Hioki's guard passing and Quinton Jackson's submission defense and escapes. But you knew that, right?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • omalley21
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 908

                                                              #31
                                                              Overeem by ko. Reem isn't gonna dive into any triangles. The cardio woes are long gone. How does Werdum win?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Squareguy
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 12-30-10
                                                                • 481

                                                                #32
                                                                Cardio woes are gone? What?

                                                                His Vo2 max is getting lower while his muscle mass is rising. He hasn't seen the second round in 4 years.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FindTheLock
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-27-10
                                                                  • 7194

                                                                  #33
                                                                  It may appear to be an attractive line on werdum, but how on earth will he drag 260 pounds of pure muscle down to the mat? Overeem is going to KHTFO and if werdum tries to lay on his back reem will wait for him to stand up. Constant Kneeing and punching will end this fight sooner or later. I'd be surprised if it went to round 2, but Werdum is going to get messed up eventually.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FlashinLeather
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-04-11
                                                                    • 573

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Squareguy
                                                                    Cardio woes are gone? What?

                                                                    His Vo2 max is getting lower while his muscle mass is rising. He hasn't seen the second round in 4 years.
                                                                    K1 GP he fought 3 fights in one night, the first one going all three rounds... I think he is going to have the cardio to at least fight three rounds.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GoldRush7
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-27-09
                                                                      • 2014

                                                                      #35
                                                                      including him in a parlay, juice way too high to play alone
                                                                      Comment
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