Any reason not go big on Overeem?

[FlashinLeather]

Fist off i'm a big fan of Overeem so I know it's not a good thing to place a big bet on him. But at a little over -300 it just seems like free money, I see the reem wining this fight 9 times out of 10. He has a good sprawl and with be able to toy with Werdum on his feet. This is looking like a 10 unit bet for me.

Looking for what you guys think. I'll be sure to not let you guys know what I do and then come back after the fight and make the right call (just kidding....)

[FlashinLeather]

excuse my engrish in the thread title...

[Kaladarus]

I like this play. Never been a big fan of -300 lines, but I will be making a play on Overeem here. He should have no problems keeping the fight on the feet like you said and out classes Werdum there.

[Ladle]

Fist off i'm a big fan of Overeem so I know it's not a good thing to place a big bet on him. But at a little over -300 it just seems like free money, I see the reem wining this fight 9 times out of 10. He has a good sprawl and with be able to toy with Werdum on his feet. This is looking like a 10 unit bet for me.

Looking for what you guys think. I'll be sure to not let you guys know what I do and then come back after the fight and make the right call (just kidding....)

If you're not signed up to Paddy Power, I'd recommend waiting for a prop bet on Overeem by T/KO. Their fight five years ago featured a 10-minute first round comprised of mostly clinching. Contrast what Overeem used to do in the clinch then, to how brutally he smashes guys now. If they clinch like that this time around, Overeem is going to knee Werdum's guts into oblivion.

Also, keep in mind that Werdum's best takedowns are all from the clinch. That really doesn't bode well for him when you consider how Overeem's game and physique have evolved.

[snake11eyes]

I'm ready to make one of those huge phantom bets as well. I have nothing to lose and everything to gain. But serious I don't see how Werdum wins this either.

[FlashinLeather]

and i'm very excited to see the reem throw his knees with the thai clinch, his knees alone changed the rules of K1

[FlashinLeather]

What you guys think the prop bet will be for Overeem by TKO/KO -200?

[Kaladarus]

I hope it's a little better than that, but I could easily see it being around -200.

[Ladle]

What you guys think the prop bet will be for Overeem by TKO/KO -200?

Currently sitting at a peachy -120 on Paddy Power (I think it opened at around +120).

[Nick The Greek]

I like Overeem, but this will be the first credible HW he's ever fought. He's outmatched on the ground no question and hasn't gone past the 1st round since he turned into the incredible hulk, so his cardio is a huge question mark. All that said, I still favor him to clobber Werdum.

[clarkd32]

i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.

[Ladle]

i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.

Too much juice for my liking. Rogers can really punch and is more skilled standing and in the clinch than people give him credit for. If he lands just one snappy punch, Barnett's wheels could come off.

[Jordan23]

Rogers can definitely really put on Barnett if he fights the right fight. Rogers isn't bad in the clinch at all.

[FlashinLeather]

Honestly i'm ready for these guys to be in the UFC so we can see them fight 3 times a year. Would make it much easier to cap these fights. Both Barnett and Rogers are big unknowns to me. At least in the in the reem fight I know that it is a style mismatch for werdum.

[NunyaBidness]

Barnett might not risk juicing for this fight after getting busted again. It's a no bet for me.

[Varker]

Overeem should be able to keep the fight standing and win.

[jin2daj]

overeem might get the knockdown and stupidly follow werdum to the mat. thats teh only way i see werdum getting a sub.

[Vaughany]

Currently sitting at a peachy -120 on Paddy Power (I think it opened at around +120).

Opened at 15/8, then straight after I maxed out with a massive £3.57 it went down to +120!

[Al0n3']

hate the 5dimes for putting prop ods so late... would go with overeem by ko\tko big!!!

[cheeese]

I wouldn't sweat Overeem's cardio too much because I thought he would gass horribly during the K-1 Grand Prix and he was fine. It's a different sport but if this one goes 3 rounds he has probably lost anyway.

[DirtyX]

Well considering that he has beat Reem before I would be cautious just based on that. Yes I know he beat him a really long time ago, but Verdum can always upset, and get a lucky sub. That being said, I think Reem is a good bet, even at -300.

[Ladle]

Well considering that he has beat Reem before I would be cautious just based on that. Yes I know he beat him a really long time ago, but Verdum can always upset, and get a lucky sub. That being said, I think Reem is a good bet, even at -300.

Overeem's game has evolved in such a way that this is now a very, very difficult match-up for Werdum.

[ttrace35]

i like Barnett at -310 better than Overeem. just think Barnett is in a completely different class than Rogers.

Go with Barnett by submission. Barnett is a submission wrestler. Miles ahead of rogers on the ground.

[Squareguy]

How about this one?

-Overeem's record against top ten opponents is 5-8. He hasn't fought a legit top ten since 06-07.

-He has been out of the first round 9 times in 45 fights. Out of those 9 times, he has lost 5 of them.

-Since he has been at heavy weight, he has 4 KO finishes against 4 guys who are all glass jawed or well passed their prime.
1. Todd Duffee went lights out to a love tap from an out of shape grappler in his previous fight.
2. Fujita was 2-4 in his last 6 fights before being thrown to Overeem.
3. Brett Rogers facing a guy his own size with world class striking? Yeah that makes sense. (He shouldn't have fought Fedor either)
4. Lee who? This guy was 1-1 when he had to fight Overeem...not to mention he came in over 300 pounds.

-Werdum has been stopped once in the first round by the future UFC heavy weight champion. Werdum is a smart fighter and is going to try to drag this into deep waters. He is also at an all time high confidence level.

[NunyaBidness]

How about this one?

-Overeem's record against top ten opponents is 5-8. He hasn't fought a legit top ten since 06-07.

-He has been out of the first round 9 times in 45 fights. Out of those 9 times, he has lost 5 of them.

-Since he has been at heavy weight, he has 4 KO finishes against 4 guys who are all glass jawed or well passed their prime.
1. Todd Duffee went lights out to a love tap from an out of shape grappler in his previous fight.
2. Fujita was 2-4 in his last 6 fights before being thrown to Overeem.
3. Brett Rogers facing a guy his own size with world class striking? Yeah that makes sense. (He shouldn't have fought Fedor either)
4. Lee who? This guy was 1-1 when he had to fight Overeem...not to mention he came in over 300 pounds.

-Werdum has been stopped once in the first round by the future UFC heavy weight champion. Werdum is a smart fighter and is going to try to drag this into deep waters. He is also at an all time high confidence level.

That's all great, but his best work in the past few years has been in K-1. The question is can Werdum get him to the ground.

[phillybadboy]

juice is too high anyways

[Squareguy]

That's all great, but his best work in the past few years has been in K-1. The question is can Werdum get him to the ground.

K1 is not MMA. If it goes into round 2, Werdum wins more often than not.

[Ladle]

K1 is not MMA. If it goes into round 2, Werdum wins more often than not.

Werdum will probably get a knee put through his stomach before he can drag Overeem to the ground, irrespective of what round it is. All of his best set-ups and takedowns are from the clinch.

It's simply a bad match-up for him.

[sideloaded]

Werdum will probably get a knee put through his stomach before he can drag Overeem to the ground, irrespective of what round it is. All of his best set-ups and takedowns are from the clinch.

It's simply a bad match-up for him.

Yeah just like Mark Hunt, oh wait he took Overoid down with ease.

[Ladle]

Yeah just like Mark Hunt, oh wait he took Overoid down with ease.

Firstly, that was less of a takedown and more of a shove. Compare Overeem's physique then to how it is now. He's not going to get shoved around so easily these days, and certainly not by Werdum.

Secondly, contrast Overeem's clinch ability then with his awesome clinch ability now. As of today, Overeem's wrestling from the clinch is probably the most serially overlooked single skill any high-level fighter has, up there with Hatsu Hioki's guard passing and Quinton Jackson's submission defense and escapes. But you knew that, right?

[omalley21]

Overeem by ko. Reem isn't gonna dive into any triangles. The cardio woes are long gone. How does Werdum win?

[Squareguy]

Cardio woes are gone? What?

His Vo2 max is getting lower while his muscle mass is rising. He hasn't seen the second round in 4 years.

[FindTheLock]

It may appear to be an attractive line on werdum, but how on earth will he drag 260 pounds of pure muscle down to the mat? Overeem is going to KHTFO and if werdum tries to lay on his back reem will wait for him to stand up. Constant Kneeing and punching will end this fight sooner or later. I'd be surprised if it went to round 2, but Werdum is going to get messed up eventually.

[FlashinLeather]

Cardio woes are gone? What?

His Vo2 max is getting lower while his muscle mass is rising. He hasn't seen the second round in 4 years.

K1 GP he fought 3 fights in one night, the first one going all three rounds... I think he is going to have the cardio to at least fight three rounds.

[GoldRush7]

including him in a parlay, juice way too high to play alone