Junior Dos Santos ( -165 --- 10u to win 6.06u)
will hedge with Carwin via (T)KO upon release
This is a large play for me because JDS has been on a roll and making me cash for a while now... Gotta keep going with him until he crashes... same w/ Anderson. I know Carwin could possibly wrestle him down to a decision, but I feel that's unlikely unless his gas tank has tripled within the last year. Carwin has a few question marks surrounding him, also including his new diet/shedding fat and muscle, and how it will impact his power. JDS has the better technique and is faster with his punches and I love his odds of catching Carwin with a big uppercut. But just to be safe I'm hedging this one with Carwin via (T)KO or I may go with Carwin KOTN if its a good line.
Maia ( +105 --- 5u to win 5.25u)
Maia is a beast. His standup continues to improve and when he's on the ground it's like rolling around with a boaconstrictor who won't let you go. I still don't believe Munoz has the better standup and his takedown setup is extremely telegraphed and sloppy in the octagon. And honestly I think Munoz will choose to stand w/ Maia as long as possible, considering his credentials. I expected Maia to open up at -200 so this was an easy call. If Munoz makes the mistake to grapple and tie up with Demian, he's eventually going to tap.
Weidman ( -200 --- 5u to win 2.5u)
I know we still have a lot to learn on Weidman, but the few fights I've seen of him he's looked very composed and his wrestling is very effective in MMA. Bongfeldt is legit, but he hasn't fought a wrestler the calibur of Weidman yet. I don't really feel this is much of a step up for Chris from Sakara and this match was set up to build him up so I couldn't resist the play.
Stout ( -115 --- 3u to win 2.61u)
This is a close fight and it may be hard for many to call, including myself. The main reason I threw down here is b/c I saw Sam at -115 upon opening at bodog and he was -140 at 5dimes and well, I really went w/ my gut. Stout is younger and has fought the tougher competition lately. Yves may have the edge in experience, but I wasn't all that impressed in his last fight against Cody considering his talent level. This will probably be another split decision win for Stout that will have some of us biting our lips as Buffer makes the call and possibly chugging our beers after the call. Either way, I like Stouts chances at this price. Or just bet straight up on this fight to go to a decision.
EDIT: Just added the following parlay (2u to win 1.83u)
I will be adding another play or two as the prop lines are released at 5dimes. Best of luck to all of you guys this weekend!
will hedge with Carwin via (T)KO upon release
This is a large play for me because JDS has been on a roll and making me cash for a while now... Gotta keep going with him until he crashes... same w/ Anderson. I know Carwin could possibly wrestle him down to a decision, but I feel that's unlikely unless his gas tank has tripled within the last year. Carwin has a few question marks surrounding him, also including his new diet/shedding fat and muscle, and how it will impact his power. JDS has the better technique and is faster with his punches and I love his odds of catching Carwin with a big uppercut. But just to be safe I'm hedging this one with Carwin via (T)KO or I may go with Carwin KOTN if its a good line.
Maia ( +105 --- 5u to win 5.25u)
Maia is a beast. His standup continues to improve and when he's on the ground it's like rolling around with a boaconstrictor who won't let you go. I still don't believe Munoz has the better standup and his takedown setup is extremely telegraphed and sloppy in the octagon. And honestly I think Munoz will choose to stand w/ Maia as long as possible, considering his credentials. I expected Maia to open up at -200 so this was an easy call. If Munoz makes the mistake to grapple and tie up with Demian, he's eventually going to tap.
Weidman ( -200 --- 5u to win 2.5u)
I know we still have a lot to learn on Weidman, but the few fights I've seen of him he's looked very composed and his wrestling is very effective in MMA. Bongfeldt is legit, but he hasn't fought a wrestler the calibur of Weidman yet. I don't really feel this is much of a step up for Chris from Sakara and this match was set up to build him up so I couldn't resist the play.
Stout ( -115 --- 3u to win 2.61u)
This is a close fight and it may be hard for many to call, including myself. The main reason I threw down here is b/c I saw Sam at -115 upon opening at bodog and he was -140 at 5dimes and well, I really went w/ my gut. Stout is younger and has fought the tougher competition lately. Yves may have the edge in experience, but I wasn't all that impressed in his last fight against Cody considering his talent level. This will probably be another split decision win for Stout that will have some of us biting our lips as Buffer makes the call and possibly chugging our beers after the call. Either way, I like Stouts chances at this price. Or just bet straight up on this fight to go to a decision.
EDIT: Just added the following parlay (2u to win 1.83u)
- 6/11/2011 10:00 PM Props Fighting 1004 Fight won't go 3 round distance* -460 vs Carwin/Santos goes 3 round distance
- 6/11/2011 6:00 PM Props Fighting 1503 Edwards/Stout goes 3 round distance* -175 vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
I will be adding another play or two as the prop lines are released at 5dimes. Best of luck to all of you guys this weekend!
