1200$ On Pettis?

**corcoran65** · 05-31-11, 07:52 PM

dont go all i on pettis.... its too risky. guida is very aggresive and can steal rounds with takedowns. judges like pettis look in the diego fight.

**snake11eyes** · 05-31-11, 07:55 PM

I think you mean guida.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 08:00 PM

Guida is not going to take that man down, if he does, Pettis will spend an approximate 5 seconds, before he gets back up, causing no points, due to no damage done on the ground. Guida is gonna get hit by a sweet kick to the chops, and take a tumble, and catch a sweet sub, or tko.

If you see the fight any other way, you are mistaken, and should watch a few Pettis fights.

**Poppa Catfish** · 05-31-11, 08:08 PM

pity post

**bogbat** · 05-31-11, 08:14 PM

Personally I think Pettis will win but I have underestimated Guida more than once and lost money betting against him several times.

You do realize that Guida has never been KO/TKO'd before right? Not to say that it can't happen but he's proven durable enough in that regard to think he'd be more likely to lose via submission (after being hurt on the feet) or decision.

Anyway, go ahead and bet $1200 on Pettis. If you're so confident he will win why even create a thread asking for opinions?

**Chairib** · 05-31-11, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

Personally I think Pettis will win but I have underestimated Guida more than once and lost money betting against him several times.

You do realize that Guida has never been KO/TKO'd before right? Not to say that it can't happen but he's proven durable enough in that regard to think he'd be more likely to lose via submission (after being hurt on the feet) or decision.

Anyway, go ahead and bet $1200 on Pettis. If you're so confident he will win why even create a thread asking for opinions?

You need to keep your bitch ass mouth shut.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

Personally I think Pettis will win but I have underestimated Guida more than once and lost money betting against him several times.

You do realize that Guida has never been KO/TKO'd before right? Not to say that it can't happen but he's proven durable enough in that regard to think he'd be more likely to lose via submission (after being hurt on the feet) or decision.

Anyway, go ahead and bet $1200 on Pettis. If you're so confident he will win why even create a thread asking for opinions?

I was wondering if going so big on my first bet would be a good idea or not.

I was also asking if anyone else is going big on Pettis.

Originally posted by Chairib

You need to keep your bitch ass mouth shut.

lol what?!

**RaiderNation MMA** · 05-31-11, 08:55 PM

ohhh yeah!!!

**FightFightFight** · 05-31-11, 08:57 PM

Theres no sure things. Roller took him down, and Hendo took him down. Im heavy on Pettis, but if its your first bet, learn "bankroll management" before doing something silly. Unless youre rich, then go ahead.

**Nick The Greek** · 05-31-11, 08:58 PM

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by Nick The Greek

Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Yeah okay dad.

It's so tempting because Guida is a bum...

**bogbat** · 05-31-11, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

lol what?!

Ignore him mate. 95% of his posts are negative nonsense.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

Ignore him mate. 95% of his posts are negative nonsense.

haha alright.

**koscheckbaby** · 05-31-11, 10:02 PM

I kind of fear Guida winning via hugging and control. I mean, he just has to do that enough to sway the wrestling biased judges. I wouldn't want you to lose your money over bullshit like that. But when I think about it, Guida really should not beat Pettis. Pettis has an enormous standup edge and an ever-evolving ground game to cause Guida issues. I wouldn't fault you for making the bet, but I'd be nervous just based on Guida's style.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I kind of fear Guida winning via hugging and control. I mean, he just has to do that enough to sway the wrestling biased judges. I wouldn't want you to lose your money over bullshit like that. But when I think about it, Guida really should not beat Pettis. Pettis has an enormous standup edge and an ever-evolving ground game to cause Guida issues. I wouldn't fault you for making the bet, but I'd be nervous just based on Guida's style.

I fear that this is the chance I should take, and if I don't take it, I'll be kicking myself because of it. Than I'll look for another opportunity to take this kind of chance, and choose incorrectly...

Guida has never faced a good kick boxer, Pettis is going to be looking to set things up. Pettis has awesome sweeps, a great triangle, and evolving submissions from the ground. I think that Pettis is in great condition also. Everyone is saying "Oh guida is explosive"... And? Pettis has amazing conditioning, he has just came out of a five-round fight, and was fighting as if it was the first round in the fifth.

On a psychological point, Pettis, in his mind, loosing is not an option. He didn't even get his belt, and now he has to fight a contender just to be able to fight for it? There is no way in hell he is loosing against Guida. Pettis has the emotional, psychological, and physical edge over Guida. Not to mention he out classes Guida in every aspect, in my opinion.

**koscheckbaby** · 05-31-11, 10:16 PM

Go for it. Last time I remember Guida fighting a good striker with a capable ground game, Kenny Florian messed him up pretty bad. I'm sure Guida has improved since then, but he's basically built a winning streak on good stylistic opponents. Gomi hasn't been good in years, save for the Griffin KO.

**Wrecked** · 05-31-11, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

Go for it. Last time I remember Guida fighting a good striker with a capable ground game, Kenny Florian messed him up pretty bad. I'm sure Guida has improved since then, but he's basically built a winning streak on good stylistic opponents. Gomi hasn't been good in years, save for the Griffin KO.

Haha it's all of my money I've received back from Financial Aid, so it's a big risk!

I'll have to think about it a little more.

**v1y** · 05-31-11, 11:15 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

Pettis has awesome sweeps, a great triangle, and evolving submissions from the ground.

On a psychological point, Pettis, in his mind, loosing is not an option. He didn't even get his belt, and now he has to fight a contender just to be able to fight for it? There is no way in hell he is loosing against Guida. Pettis has the emotional, psychological, and physical edge over Guida. Not to mention he out classes Guida in every aspect, in my opinion.

1: If pettis gets put on his back, he's not sweeping or submitting Guida. Not happening.

2: Can't you reason this the other way and think that Pettis might come in overconfident, and Guida might be extra motivated because of the stakes?

**NunyaBidness** · 06-01-11, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by Wrecked

I'm thinking on going all in on Pettis...
It would be my first bet, and I don't see any way that Pettis would loose...

Anyone else going big on Pettis on Saturday?

Betting on fighters you have a man-crush on is usually a bad decision.

Saying that Guida has no chance when he is absolutely the mold of a fighter who can win decisions by punching the air.

If you're playing this game right you should FREQUENTLY be rooting for one fighter while your wallet is rooting for another. And lots of times you'll be rooting for the fight to SLOW DOWN, Less Action, just lay on top of him, don't sub him. . .

**Hannibal** · 06-01-11, 01:12 AM

Good bet. Pettis is better everywhere. It's pretty hard to make pettis look bad. The judges decision doesn't worry me enough to say otherwise.

I'm placing a large bet on him too. I don't know about all in... but if you consistently bet large amounts on solid picks like pettis @-140 you will be a winner

**GunShard** · 06-01-11, 02:32 AM

Money Management is an important key.

Let's say your entire bankroll is $1000.

I say bet from 5% to 25% per fight.

If you decide to bet 25%, then bet $250 on Pettis to defeat Guida.
Bet $250 on Silva to defeat Okami in August.
$250 on another fight and $250 on another fight.
Which is the entire $1000 spread out.

I say spread your bets through out different UFC events that you believe are good spots to bet on.

I personally would not bet all of my money on one UFC event unless all the best spots to bet are in that event.

**bogbat** · 06-01-11, 03:40 AM

I agree that you should manage your money better but at the same time there are exceptions for me from time to time. Once a while a line sticks out like a turd in a punch bowl and I feel so confident in it I bet a lot larger than I normally do. The last time that was for me was Cain Velasquez vs Big Nog. I got Cain as a slight dog and I was so confident he would win I couldn't help but pound it.

That said, I don't gamble like a percentage of my life savings like most, I put aside an amount I'm comfortable losing and if I lose my gambling fund I make myself have a break for a while. Keeps me from gambling my life away.

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-11, 05:45 AM

I think the most important fact here is that guida may get a takedown or lock up pettis to the fence but not for so long that the judges will score the round in favor of guida. Pettis is very dynamic, he takes the middle of the cage, he is showboating when he lateral flexes his head from side to side, in a cocky way, presses the action. He basically leaves a very good impressions after a round. I dont think guida can steal to rounds from pettis. I just dont see it. Pettis is crazy athletic and fast as well, much quicker than guida, which makes it even more difficult to time the takedowns. In the gomi fight, he had to look like a clown to try to cover up his true intentions, that was to take gomi to the ground. That will simply not work against pettis. Lissen as dana white always say, pettis can hang with guida on the ground, and def. on the feet. Pettis @1.70, its a robbery in my opinon. A ******* robbery.

**thesox0311** · 06-01-11, 06:23 AM

when did Guida become a bum? News to me...

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-11, 06:44 AM

bum or carpenter. The fact is, he is not on pettis level. thesox0311, you get it!

**Wrecked** · 06-01-11, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

I think the most important fact here is that guida may get a takedown or lock up pettis to the fence but not for so long that the judges will score the round in favor of guida. Pettis is very dynamic, he takes the middle of the cage, he is showboating when he lateral flexes his head from side to side, in a cocky way, presses the action. He basically leaves a very good impressions after a round. I dont think guida can steal to rounds from pettis. I just dont see it. Pettis is crazy athletic and fast as well, much quicker than guida, which makes it even more difficult to time the takedowns. In the gomi fight, he had to look like a clown to try to cover up his true intentions, that was to take gomi to the ground. That will simply not work against pettis. Lissen as dana white always say, pettis can hang with guida on the ground, and def. on the feet. Pettis @1.70, its a robbery in my opinon. A ******* robbery.

Totally agree.

Originally posted by bogbat

I agree that you should manage your money better but at the same time there are exceptions for me from time to time. Once a while a line sticks out like a turd in a punch bowl and I feel so confident in it I bet a lot larger than I normally do. The last time that was for me was Cain Velasquez vs Big Nog. I got Cain as a slight dog and I was so confident he would win I couldn't help but pound it.

That said, I don't gamble like a percentage of my life savings like most, I put aside an amount I'm comfortable losing and if I lose my gambling fund I make myself have a break for a while. Keeps me from gambling my life away.

I just wanted to do this fight. With these odds it's so ridiculous that Pettis has the slight edge over Guida. I'm guessing it's because its Pettis' debut in the ufc?

I don't know. I know I should go for it, but it's my first bet, and I'm nervous because it's all of my money!

**BIGDAY** · 06-01-11, 07:51 AM

I'm not going big. I like Pettis to win, but not larger than a unit or two for me. Guida is a very busy fighter and if the fight goes to a decision, you might be crossing your fingers.

Good luck!

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-11, 08:03 AM

if you consistently bet on the fighter that have the edge standing and on the ground you will win very very often. Kampmann will have to be the exception in his fight against Diego. He is better than sanchez both standing and on the ground but he lacks aggression, and the have a type style that the judges currently do not appreciate. This doubt your fighting within is something that is important to have. It shows that you are rationale and understand the risks. You should contemplate and go back and forth before coming to conclusion, but Pettis should win more often than not he is better. Just think about what an amazing gameplan and how well guida must fight to win here? is it very likely? It may not be the perfect bet, since guida is a good fighter after all. But Pettis should basically win this fight. The jeremy stephans match may be a safer play, but you will then have to parlay stephans with another bet to get any profit. Maybe R.deuran and Scott joergensen. Both franscico and Downes are thrown to the wolfs. Poor bastards.

**Vaughany** · 06-01-11, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

The jeremy stephans match may be a safer play, but you will then have to parlay stephans with another bet to get any profit. Maybe R.deuran and Scott joergensen. Both franscico and Downes are thrown to the wolfs. Poor bastards.

Shame that Lil Heathen isn't on main card now, probably won't be able to get props for tht one.

**Cuse0323** · 06-01-11, 08:18 AM

I like it, go for it.

**bjpenn85** · 06-01-11, 08:22 AM

Argh. Stehphans will likely TKO him. If you stand and trade with Melvin for three rounds, you're legit. He was just not fast enough, but is there really anyone that actually can match that homeboys speed at 155? Paddypower maybe, but I am tied Bondage style over there.

**Vaughany** · 06-01-11, 08:32 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Argh. Stehphans will likely TKO him. If you stand and trade with Melvin for three rounds, you're legit. He was just not fast enough, but is there really anyone that actually can match that homeboys speed at 155? Paddypower maybe, but I am tied Bondage style over there.

ha Yeah, a massive £1.49 on Stephens by KO! Maybe KOTN will be only option

**jin2daj** · 06-01-11, 08:35 AM

i think its a good idea. im on pettis too. guida is soo predictable and i have no idea why anybody likes him. get fkn haircut. sure he's energetic but it gets old real fast when he's really just shaking his hair around and pretending to look busy.

**JoshB** · 06-01-11, 08:57 AM