What Fights Are You Guys Most Confident With Going Forward?

[koscheckbaby]

Haven't picked anyone's brains around here for awhile. Kind of been going small on cards and not getting my blood pressure worked up.

I personally feel like GSP, Machida, and Aldo are locks at UFC 129. But it sucks that they are such heavy favorites. Makes the card feel less interesting.

I was kind of hoping Matyushenko is close to even versus Brilz. Just think he's better everywhere. But really, the card doesn't got me excited for odds.

[Ladle]

Claude Patrick will be my big play for UFC 129 if the line is close to even money. He's probably better than Daniel Roberts in every facet of the game, in spite of Roberts' recent improvements at Cesars'.

I personally feel like GSP, Machida, and Aldo are locks at UFC 129. But it sucks that they are such heavy favorites. Makes the card feel less interesting.

I'd say there's definitely more value to be had in betting on Machida and Aldo to win inside the distance, as opposed to betting on them to win outright.

I was kind of hoping Matyushenko is close to even versus Brilz. Just think he's better everywhere. But really, the card doesn't got me excited for odds.

I think Brilz wins that fight. His top control is pretty damn staunch, and as we saw in the Rogerio fight, his great weight distribution makes it difficult for opponents to sweep him. He also has excellent hips and is difficult to hold down on the bottom. They're fairly evenly matched in terms of their offensive wrestling, but I think Brilz is more savvy on the ground, both positionally and submission-wise. I favour him slightly in the stand-up, too.

EDIT: It's also worth nothing that Jason Brilz deserves to be 5-0 in the UFC. He won two rounds against Rogerio, and absolutely styled on Eliot Marshall.

[koscheckbaby]

Isn't Roberts a college wrestling champ that trains BJJ with Cesar Gracie's crew? His submission of Soto last fight out was fairly impressive.

[Ladle]

Isn't Roberts a college wrestling champ that trains BJJ with Cesar Gracie's crew? His submission of Soto last fight out was fairly impressive.

Roberts has always been a decent grappler coming up, and is indeed developing his game with Cesar Gracie, but he's not going to be a title contender. He gassed quite badly against Forrest Petz and his stand-up is extremely rudimentary right now.

As for the Patrick fight, it's important to remember that Roberts got taken down very easily by Soto, who's far from a powerhouse wrestler. With that in mind, I see absolutely no reason why Patrick can't be successful with his swanky clinch takedowns. From there, I'm confident that Patrick is defensively sound enough to avoid falling into the same traps that Guymon and Soto did. I think the most likely outcome is a unanimous decision for Patrick, characterised by superior clinch work and positional dominance. Wouldn't be surprised to see him smash Roberts in the stand-up, though.

[omalley21]

Rogerio deserved the win over Brilz. I watched it a few times. People were just surprised Brilz looked as good as he did.

[Ladle]

Rogerio deserved the win over Brilz. I watched it a few times. People were just surprised Brilz looked as good as he did.

I disagree. I watched the fight a couple of weeks back and scored the first two rounds in favour of Brilz (just as I did on my first viewing).

[sirchadwick1]

Confident? Warren, Pitbull, GSP, Aldo, Ubereem.
Not exactly the best prices... but I think all of them are pretty easy money.

[Ladle]

Confident? Warren, Pitbull, GSP, Aldo, Ubereem.
Not exactly the best prices... but I think all of them are pretty easy money.

Good shout on Alves. I think he stuffs Story's takedowns and wipes the floor with him.

EDIT: Oh wait, you probably meant Freire. Bloody nicknames!

[sirchadwick1]

Good shout on Alves. I think he stuffs Story's takedowns and wipes the floor with him.

Sorry for the confusion there... but I actually meant Patricio Freire... not Thiago lol.
But I do feel that the other Pitbull will win against Story also... just hesitant to bet on it as Story is a tough dude.

[Ladle]

just hesitant to bet on it as Story is a tough dude.

This is true. I think it'll look a lot like Alves/Koscheck.

[Vaughany]

MACHIDA BY TKO/KO and KO of the Night;
CHEICK KONGO over Hype or Die...could be my biggest play of the year if his odds are reasonable!

[FlashinLeather]

MACHIDA BY TKO/KO and KO of the Night;

What do you see here? Randy has not been KO'ed since 2006 and Machida showed no fight in him until the final round against rampage. I see this fight going the full three rounds I have to think that randy will know he is out matched striking and fight a smart fight to a decision.

[bigjah15]

my parlay for 129. ben henderson- will come back strong after being embarassed at the hands of pettis(off cage flying kick) Randy couture- may be last fight for randy if so will wanna come go out with a win. i see him taking down machida and laying on top of him whole fight/dirty boxing in clinch. anddd... jake shields-gsp never faced anyone with both jits and wrestling as strong backgrounds. gsp will not finish him. only way gsp is winning is by decision. which i dont see jake letting it go to decision. just my opinion. plan on putting $50 to $100 on the parlay. may add aldo for some more value havent decided yet.

[Ladle]

my parlay for 129. ben henderson- will come back strong after being embarassed at the hands of pettis(off cage flying kick) Randy couture- may be last fight for randy if so will wanna come go out with a win. i see him taking down machida and laying on top of him whole fight/dirty boxing in clinch. anddd... jake shields-gsp never faced anyone with both jits and wrestling as strong backgrounds. gsp will not finish him. only way gsp is winning is by decision. which i dont see jake letting it go to decision. just my opinion. plan on putting $50 to $100 on the parlay. may add aldo for some more value havent decided yet.

Don't put that much money on a three fight parlay bro - especially one including two huge underdogs (the odds are the way they are for a reason). If you feel strongly about each of those fights, then bet on them individually. I'm afraid the chance of that parlay being successful is absolutely minute.

[bigjah15]

50 might be where im at with it. think about it tho. when was the last time machida had a dominating performance? and whens the last time randys been dominated? im sure on randy and ben. might switch out jake shields.. will pay close attention to it from now til then. thanks for your input tho. always appreciated

[jacktheknife]

Frank Mir -115. Roy's good at two things and Frank's better at both of them. His best shot is the clinch, where that big center of mass is his best friend.

I have no access to props, but if I did, I'd be interested to know what St-Pierre not by submission is at right now.

[FlashinLeather]

Frank Mir -115. Roy's good at two things and Frank's better at both of them. His best shot is the clinch, where that big center of mass is his best friend.

I have no access to props, but if I did, I'd be interested to know what St-Pierre not by submission is at right now.

His BJJ IS better...

[jin2daj]

i like macdonald over nate diaz. hopefully he'll be a big dog when lines open.

[jacktheknife]

His BJJ IS better...

If you like his BJJ, his boxing will scare you. If his post-karate defensive offense shuts out another fighter, I'll start comparing him to Machida.

[koscheckbaby]

MACHIDA BY TKO/KO and KO of the Night;
CHEICK KONGO over Hype or Die...could be my biggest play of the year if his odds are reasonable!

I agree with that. Kongo is a pussy for some reason that refuses to use his kickboxing and resorts to acting like a wrestler. Against Barry and his shit ground, that's an easy TKO. If Barry impresses, it's a decision win for Kongo.

[urge2kill]

I have no access to props, but if I did, I'd be interested to know what St-Pierre not by submission is at right now.

-2300 at 5Dimes.

[rocky mattioli]

i`m surprised to hear folks picking alves to wipe the floor with story...if story moves to +200,i may take a flyer with the lefty wrestler that has some sub game......

like straus this weekend...

like bader over tito(not a shocker and the odds reflect it)....tito won`t out-wrestle bader and will gas early.......i don`t know where the "tito has great cardio" b.s. started...i guess when he was laying on guys that couldn`t wrestle....

might take a few small dogs like gray maynard....and the more i look,the more i like junior dos santos....after watching couture/lesnar again,i think that dos santos spends his whole camp defending takedowns and beats up lesnar...i think lesnar`s time is up...

also like dunham vs sotiropoulos(won`t have to worry about the speed and athleticism and sheer strength of guillard)....and took a small flyer on hominick on home turf getting large odds vs aldo(i actually think he has a shot)....i`m very impressed with hominick`s stand-up...if he can deal with the kicks,who knows(that`s a big if,though)

(tried not to mention all big faves)

[phillybadboy]

my parlay for 129. ben henderson- will come back strong after being embarassed at the hands of pettis(off cage flying kick) Randy couture- may be last fight for randy if so will wanna come go out with a win. i see him taking down machida and laying on top of him whole fight/dirty boxing in clinch. anddd... jake shields-gsp never faced anyone with both jits and wrestling as strong backgrounds. gsp will not finish him. only way gsp is winning is by decision. which i dont see jake letting it go to decision. just my opinion. plan on putting $50 to $100 on the parlay. may add aldo for some more value havent decided yet.

like it

[jacktheknife]

-2300 at 5Dimes.

That sounds like NOT GSP by submission, as opposed to GSP not by submission. Easy mistake.

[jacktheknife]

my parlay for 129. ben henderson- will come back strong after being embarassed at the hands of pettis(off cage flying kick) Randy couture- may be last fight for randy if so will wanna come go out with a win. i see him taking down machida and laying on top of him whole fight/dirty boxing in clinch. anddd... jake shields-gsp never faced anyone with both jits and wrestling as strong backgrounds. gsp will not finish him. only way gsp is winning is by decision. which i dont see jake letting it go to decision. just my opinion. plan on putting $50 to $100 on the parlay. may add aldo for some more value havent decided yet.

That sounds like absolutely the worst bet I've ever heard. How long have you been capping MMA, sir? 'Cause you've got me worried you're gonna end up broke.

[Kaladarus]

That sounds like NOT GSP by submission, as opposed to GSP not by submission. Easy mistake.

Would be a good prop, but I don't think this option is out anywhere.

[Kaladarus]

i like macdonald over nate diaz. hopefully he'll be a big dog when lines open.

I like Macdonald also. He's got a great ground game and his wrestling should be enough to take Diaz down for 3 rounds.

[jacktheknife]

Would be a good prop, but I don't think this option is out anywhere.

Allow me to introduce you to Vaughany. You'll come to wish that his books would sucked into a black hole, along with the rest of fair Britannia.

[urge2kill]

Allow me to introduce you to Vaughany. You'll come to wish that his books would sucked into a black hole, along with the rest of fair Britannia.

I'm pretty sure even the great V can't get a GSP not by sub prop.

[jacktheknife]

I'm pretty sure even the great V can't get a GSP not by sub prop.

Sighhhhhhhhhhh, you'd think so, wouldn't you?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p34.html

Adding:

5 units on Machida by TKO/KO or Decision at -150 to win 3.333 units.

Is this right? I mean not a typo. I'm reading this as Machida Wins/Not By SUB -150. Where did you find that? Ridiculous odds on that.

Yep reading it correctly Hoff! Paddy offering that type of bet for GSP fight and Machida fight.

[bigjah15]

That sounds like absolutely the worst bet I've ever heard. How long have you been capping MMA, sir? 'Cause you've got me worried you're gonna end up broke.

and thats your opinion. im trying to make a quick buck. and this thread ask for fights and i gave my choices. im having fun with it. 50 is not alot to me. i do not do this long term. i work too much .bol on your plays

[urge2kill]

Sighhhhhhhhhhh, you'd think so, wouldn't you?

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/522565-vaughanys-mma-picks-p34.html

Good job you for finding your answer all by yourself.

[jacktheknife]

and thats your opinion. im trying to make a quick buck. and this thread ask for fights and i gave my choices. im having fun with it. 50 is not alot to me. i do not do this long term. i work too much .bol on your plays

I'm not sure whether the quick bucks or having fun on april 30 is the bigger priority, but I suggest that with that parley you'll have significantly less of both. I do hope you at least bet them individually.

[jacktheknife]

Good job you for finding your answer all by yourself.

You're not thinking I meant you specifically, are you?

[Vaughany]

That sounds like NOT GSP by submission, as opposed to GSP not by submission. Easy mistake.

GSP by KO or decision is -400 on Paddy. Think I'd rather take GSP by decision hedged with GSP KO of the Night or something.