Randy Couture VS Lyoto Machida UFC 129 Prediction

**aqaz69** · 04-06-11, 01:51 PM

Always bet couture as an underdog. Always.

**yokes33** · 04-06-11, 06:54 PM

No dragon slayer this time! I gotta go with Machida.

**MMAdisciple** · 04-06-11, 07:16 PM

Randy hasn't won against real competition since Vera and he barely got the D then. Nog (the non-striker) worked Randy on the feet and even dropped him - how long ago was that? No way Randy finishes in the 1st, his only way of winning is a Vera-like decision but 15 minutes is too much time to get hit.

**jin2daj** · 04-06-11, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

Randy hasn't won against real competition since Vera and he barely got the D then. Nog (the non-striker) worked Randy on the feet and even dropped him - how long ago was that? No way Randy finishes in the 1st, his only way of winning is a Vera-like decision but 15 minutes is too much time to get hit.

i think at +260, the chances the randy winning via wallnstall become very relevant. randy is probably not going to win but the +260 has some value on it.

**Chairib** · 04-06-11, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by MMAdisciple

Randy hasn't won against real competition since Vera and he barely got the D then. Nog (the non-striker) worked Randy on the feet and even dropped him - how long ago was that? No way Randy finishes in the 1st, his only way of winning is a Vera-like decision but 15 minutes is too much time to get hit.

Nog the non striker? Both of the Nogueira brothers incorporate boxing into their overall MMA gameplan you dolt. It's why they work with Luiz Carlos Dorea.

**MMAdisciple** · 04-06-11, 07:27 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

Nog the non striker? Both of the Nogueira brothers incorporate boxing into their overall MMA gameplan you dolt. It's why they work with Luiz Carlos Dorea.

I meant primarily.

**LayingThe$Down** · 04-06-11, 08:13 PM

imo Randy is getting stopped then he will announce his retirement. I can't see Randy surviving 15 minutes with Machida.

**clarkd32** · 04-06-11, 08:28 PM

i thought a couple months ago randy didn't know if/when he was going to fight - he was going to be in some movies i think. i'd be on machida in this contest and agree with LTD and that this could be the last fight for Couture.

**Shane** · 04-06-11, 08:48 PM

Randy takes pride in being a strategist and he's lobbied specifically for this fight for quite some time, so he must see something exploitable in Machida's game. He's shocked the world before.

**robotralph** · 04-06-11, 11:38 PM

If randy can use rampages strategy than he has a huge shot, but if he comes in out of shape and uninspired to win then he has no shot.

**jin2daj** · 04-07-11, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by Shane

Randy takes pride in being a strategist and he's lobbied specifically for this fight for quite some time, so he must see something exploitable in Machida's game. He's shocked the world before.

very very good point. but more likely, he just sees a lack of wrestling base in machida and sees his wallnstall matching up stylistically well there. iseem to remember him having called out shogun too

**phillybadboy** · 04-07-11, 12:17 AM

should be very easy for machida, but to win long term bet underdogs

**bogbat** · 04-07-11, 12:19 AM

Yep the only way Couture wins this is by cage hump.

**Vaughany** · 04-07-11, 03:28 AM

I just cant see the COuture dirtyboxing/cage pressure technique working against Machida. It worked agaisnt Vera because Vera has minimal footwork and a casual strategy similar to Mir where he thinks he can just reverse positions no matter where the fight goes...the problem with this is if you dont reverse tht position then in the eyes of the judges it looks like the opponent is applying pressure and showing octagon control which is why Couture somehow got the nod in tht fight. If you look at all of Couture's opponents, none have had the movement that Machida has. IMO 3 of Couture's last 4 fights have been against zombies in Toney, Coleman and Nog....guys with no head movement or footwork in general...guys tailor made for Couture to grab hold of or even catch with a punch (as he did with COleman and Nog). When I see what Nog was able to do against Couture, I just cant help but like Machida chances of finishing Couture. There's no way Couture takes the flurry that Rampage took in tht final round against Machida. Moreover, Machida not only needs a win but needs to make a big statement in order to get back amongst the title contenders in the division..what better than to finish Couture with strikes and potentially retire him.

**LayingThe$Down** · 04-07-11, 11:34 AM

I'm with ya on this one, V. I am not a big prop player, but if the odds are anywhere decent on a Machida stoppage I will jump on it with both feet.

This is one of the best match-ups for Machida in the division imo. Machida should blast Couture outta there. I feel highly confident of this and will be putting my money where my mouth is.

**Pabinator** · 04-07-11, 11:37 AM

Im thinking the same thing, Machida is going to have it easy here

**omalley21** · 04-07-11, 11:38 AM

The only thing that scares me is Couture hand picked Machida. We all know how that usually ends up. He see's a weakness he can exploit. Also where Machidas head is at worries me.. But realistically Randy has no chance. Ive got machida in a few parlays.

**JoshB** · 04-07-11, 02:47 PM

I've Machida in parlays as well

**jin2daj** · 04-07-11, 03:05 PM

this one is just no play for me. hard to count randy out and i feel like machida's odds dont ahve much value. maybe in a couple just for fun parlays though.

**Kaladarus** · 04-07-11, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by jin2daj

this one is just no play for me. hard to count randy out and i feel like machida's odds dont ahve much value. maybe in a couple just for fun parlays though.

^This.

I also believe the current odds are accurate.

**Shane** · 04-07-11, 10:27 PM

Yeah, as of now I don't think I'll be putting any money on this one.

**LLXC** · 04-07-11, 11:26 PM

Machida but too expensive.

**jliggett12** · 04-08-11, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by robotralph

If randy can use rampages strategy than he has a huge shot, but if he comes in out of shape and uninspired to win then he has no shot.

when have you ever seen randy not come out in shape and ready to fight. the man fights nobody but the best fighters. i agree with your first statement, if he can get him against the cage and hold him there it goes randy's way. randy is much stronger than machida. if machida doesnt put him out there's a very good chance he loses. and ill take randy at +260 all day.

**Pabinator** · 04-08-11, 02:14 PM

I also think Machida thinks he is going to have this one easy

**sekula1107** · 04-28-11, 04:01 PM

Has anyone seen his last fights? Toney, Coleman, Vera... I don't even want to bother discussing Toney, Coles is a ******* dinosaur, Vera is pretty lame actually... They are all slow movers, two of them really old and randy aint gettin younger either... And he cant dirty box with someone if he cant catch him... Machida had different preparation, he is highly motivated after two tough losses in a row after being undefeated for some years... I know randy tends to surprise but Machida won't and can't allow that... Machida is clearly the pick here..
As for the main event, my instinct has been shields the whole time and don't get me wrong I'm a GSP supporter but I think his reign will end after a submission...

**Ladle** · 04-28-11, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by jin2daj

i think at +260, the chances the randy winning via wallnstall become very relevant. randy is probably not going to win but the +260 has some value on it.

Poor bet. Couture by decision is the only play worth making if you intend on wagering on him.

Even if Randy does get his hands on Machida, it's not like there's some huge disparity in clinch ability. Lyoto has had so much success against physically larger guys at 205 because of his clinch skills. Not only is he surprisingly strong from that position, he's also incredibly fluid. I'm not saying he'll have an advantage, but don't expect Couture to start rag-dolling him.

**iifold** · 04-28-11, 04:37 PM

my sources say the old guy loses..

**Vaughany** · 04-28-11, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

Poor bet. Couture by decision is the only play worth making if you intend on wagering on him.

Even if Randy does get his hands on Machida, it's not like there's some huge disparity in clinch ability. Lyoto has had so much success against physically larger guys at 205 because of his clinch skills. Not only is he surprisingly strong from that position, he's also incredibly fluid. I'm not saying he'll have an advantage, but don't expect Couture to start rag-dolling him.

I second tht!

**jspectyper** · 04-28-11, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by LLXC

Machida but too expensive.

True, I feel machida gets it done but -350 against a master tactician like randy is too steep. Feel comfortable tossing him in a few lil parlays.

**bogbat** · 04-29-11, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by Chairib

Nog the non striker? Both of the Nogueira brothers incorporate boxing into their overall MMA gameplan you dolt. It's why they work with Luiz Carlos Dorea.

Well you have to admit that little Nog's striking is significantly better than his twin brother's, especially at this stage of the game where the damage Big Nog has taken throughout his career is really starting to show. I think that is the point he was trying to make.

**Vrakas** · 04-29-11, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by bogbat

Well you have to admit that little Nog's striking is significantly better than his twin brother's, especially at this stage of the game where the damage Big Nog has taken throughout his career is really starting to show. I think that is the point he was trying to make.

True but Big Nog was also at the top of his game in that fight, best form he's been in in a long time. Something about fighting couture seems to really motive people, not that Machida needs any more motivation at this point.

**RaiderNation MMA** · 04-29-11, 03:19 AM

i think lyoto will be great on saturday!

**goblinburner** · 04-29-11, 03:46 AM

i like machida in this one but im not betting the house on this fight im to scared of it being a boring grinding the cage type of fight if machida can stay in the center of the ring he will win easy he starts backing up he will have a long day coming for him. like the video says if he gets pushed back i would not be suprised if couture comes out with a win in his last fight the value is on courture but not a big beat either way for me. i rather put my money on sheilds since i think he can control the inside game

**jin2daj** · 04-29-11, 04:22 AM

i hope machida can keep his distance. if randy wins and retires, thats one less contender in the lhw division (because it would show machida to be a little overhyped).

and id love to see machida vs jones. would be a fun matchup stylistically.