Give me a winner.. Penn or Fitch???

[daimoshokage]

Wanna pound it.. I'm leaning Penn.. but Fitch is damn good putting guys in the mat.. having a hard time picking a winner here..

[AnthonySoprano]

Tough one...since the fight was announced I haven't felt anything clearly, besides knowing Fitch will definitely take BJ down and BJ will definitely put his hands on Fitch and/or give him a run on the ground...probably making this my draw pick of the night.

[Mr.Kitty]

Fitch by decision

[Vaughany]

Fitch by decision

Ditto!

Bad luck last night Kitty...Forza Matri!

[Mr.Kitty]

Ditto! Bad luck last night Kitty...Forza Matri!

I am still pissed off

[sirchadwick1]

Fitch - UD.
Hedge with BJ inside the distance.

[FlashinLeather]

Has fitch faced any one on BJ's level of BJJ, I feel this could be a fight where BJ might be able to show off his jitz, I would love to see him get taken down by Fitch and as Fitch is trying to grind out a UD BJ slaps on a triangle.

[playa420]

should be a pretty easy win for fitch, bj hasnt looked very good lately and got manhandled by a edgars little ass a couple fights back.

[xelance]

fitch decision, as mentioned already. Love this play.

[Poppa Catfish]

Has fitch faced any one on BJ's level of BJJ, I feel this could be a fight where BJ might be able to show off his jitz, I would love to see him get taken down by Fitch and as Fitch is trying to grind out a UD BJ slaps on a triangle.

Errr what? Do you mean anywhere close to BJ's level or something to that affect. Because Penn is up there on the mountain top of BJJ, there isn't really anybody out there in the welter weight division to face that is at BJ's level. Fitch has a lot of incredible BJJ players in his camp, and his ability to escape submissions is legendary.

but no welter weight can say they have faced a fighter on par BJJ wise with BJ, except of course those who have fought him.

[clarkd32]

didn't penn get taken down by edgar and unable to get back up during the 2nd fight?

i see a boring fight with Fitch winning by decision.

[GunShard]

Everyone just explained why Penn is the underdog on the sportsbooks.

[bogbat]

Errr what? Do you mean anywhere close to BJ's level or something to that affect. Because Penn is up there on the mountain top of BJJ, there isn't really anybody out there in the welter weight division to face that is at BJ's level. Fitch has a lot of incredible BJJ players in his camp, and his ability to escape submissions is legendary. but no welter weight can say they have faced a fighter on par BJJ wise with BJ, except of course those who have fought him.

I don't ever recall BJ getting a sub off his back. The most he will do off his back against Fitch is stall it out with his high guard.

[AnthonySoprano]

I don't ever recall BJ getting a sub off his back.

He came close in the 2nd Hughes fight, if I remember right, haven't seen it in a while though.

[Poppa Catfish]

I don't ever recall BJ getting a sub off his back. The most he will do off his back against Fitch is stall it out with his high guard.

Penn is losing this fight, I'm pretty sure of it. I just didn't understand his comment about Fitch facing somebody of BJ's talent in BJJ.

I don't recall too much of BJ on his back at all,outside of the GSP fight, for that matter. Not that it really matters, just trying to be fair. This looks like a nightmare match up for BJ.

[Poppa Catfish]

He came close in the 2nd Hughes fight, if I remember right, haven't seen it in a while though.

Right you are, as Hughes was saved by the bell, he has also shown pretty amazing sweeps. Not many have put him on his back, Fitch should be able to do just that don't get me wrong, but it still is worth examining since one is not able to sub off his back if one is not on his back very often at all.

[Vaughany]

Fitch having Dave Camarillo in his training camp and corner should be useful, Camarillo knows BJ's BJJ game very well as they were both Ralph Gracie students back in the day.

[Jordan23]

Fitch is going to win. But I want BJ to win.

[GunShard]

Who has the better wrestling, Jon Fitch or Matt Hughes?

[Birdman126]

Fitch by UD. Fitch is the #2 WW in the world. If GSP moves up, Fitch will be the new WW king. And I'm not a Fitch fan.

[RaiderNation MMA]

penn by sub

[RaiderNation MMA]

matt hughes was probably a better wrestler than fitch in his prime

[Mr.Kitty]

BJ Penn actually got Matt Hughes to come down and help him prepare for Fitch.

http://matt-hughes.com/blog1/?p=985

[Vaughany]

BJ Penn actually got Matt Hughes to come down and help him prepare for Fitch.

http://matt-hughes.com/blog1/?p=985

Yeah good plan can only help...but I dont see Hughes helping BJ with the pace that Fitch will set and relentlessness.

[Mr.Kitty]

Yeah good plan can only help...but I dont see Hughes helping BJ with the pace that Fitch will set and relentlessness.

Me neither, I dont think this fight will be much different than any other Jon Fitch fight, hes gonna get that stifling top control and constantly work and be relentless for three rounds. Fitch is actually one of my favorite fighters, hes definitely not spectacular or flashy like Anderson Silva and Bones Jones but hes a workhorse, a true grinder. You can always expect a good performance from him, he's very consistent.

[Vaughany]

Me neither, I dont think this fight will be much different than any other Jon Fitch fight, hes gonna get that stifling top control and constantly work and be relentless for three rounds. Fitch is actually one of my favorite fighters, hes definitely not spectacular or flashy like Anderson Silva and Bones Jones but hes a workhorse, a true grinder. You can always expect a good performance from him, he's very consistent.

Yeah along with Frankie Edgar and Jim Miller he's one of my favourite fighters to bet on! Always know what you're gonna get with them!

[NunyaBidness]

Wanna pound it.. I'm leaning Penn.. but Fitch is damn good putting guys in the mat.. having a hard time picking a winner here..

Why would you "wanna pound" a line that you're having trouble picking a side? I like to "pound" sides that seem really obvious, and ignore lines that don't.

[MMAdisciple]

I still just can't see how Fitch's performances get him the UD here. His opponents don't convince me...Alves was the highest caliber but coming off a 13 month layoff and didn't come in shape. Who else has Fitch beat really? Saunders...dud. Paulo is still green to wrestling all this time after Fitch, no surprise he wasn't ready then. And Pierce got a 3rd round flurry in, who's to say Penn can't in the 1st or 2nd?

Penn wasn't a can on the ground against Frankie last time they fought...1st takedown BJ nearly swept then threatened with an armbar, then controlled Frankie's hips and right arm until he got up. 2nd TD: BJ gets right back up. 3rd: slam, BJ up seconds later. 4th: BJ up 20 seconds later. I know this is WW and size might be an issue for Penn but this is a big step up for the master restrainer, he will have his hands full.

I like the draw prop @ +5500, Fitch in 3rd @ +2545, and Penn inside @ +353...have those worked in to my locked picks for small parlays.

[FlashinLeather]

.I like the draw prop @ +5500, Fitch in 3rd @ +2545, and Penn inside @ +353...have those worked in to my locked picks for small parlays.

Have you ever hit a draw?

[MMAdisciple]

Have you ever hit a draw?

Tried once before this and missed, it's just another way for me to play from hindsight...and because I love picking/hitting props. I weighed Edgar/Maynard 2 for so long and just couldn't come up with a winner because they were so evenly matched - not in style but in terms of skill. I skipped the fight as I would usually do in such a case, but with that eventual result I decided to play a draw every other card or so.

There were 2 in a row for UFC 124 & 125; maybe draws are becoming more prevalent with the "evolving" and/or flat-out confusion of/in judging...they'll always be another possible outcome in the list of possible outcomes, figure the best analysis can get me one, one day.

My first try was Rocha/Ellenberger.

[Birdman126]

fitch by UD

[tat1980]

Fitch is an EASY call here. Fitch is country strong and just mauls his opponents. GSP was asked multiple times who his toughest challenger has been & he says Fitch everytime. Fitch is not going to knock anyone out but he will win a decision 9 out of 10 times against BJ.

[bak_ones]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/946859-ufc-127-predictions.html

[sweethook]

fitch all day

[Poppa Catfish]

matt hughes was probably a better wrestler than fitch in his prime

BJ Penn has amazing balance and is very agile with a great sprawl, that should do wonders against Fitch's amazing double leg shot.

oh wait......