Thoughts on a parlay I am considering for UFC 123

[NickBaragona]

• 11/20/2010 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Gerald Harris* -255 vs Maiquel Falcao
• 11/20/2010 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1402 Phil Davis* -525 vs Tim Boetsch
• 11/20/2010 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1502 George Sotiropoulos* -215 vs Joe Lauzon
• 11/20/2010 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1111 Machida wins by 3 round decision* +125 vs Not Machida by 3 round decision

Risking $52.00 To Win $232.10 * FREE PLAY

I am using a Free Play I earned as a deposit bonus, which do u think is the riskiest part of this parlay? I may take out one or two fights.

[Poppa Catfish]

I think the strongest part of the parlay is Sot and Machida winning 3 round decision. You can't be getting much out of the Phil Davis part of the parlay, even if you think its 90% likely he wins his fight I just don't think its worth the risk. I'm on the fence with Gerald Harris.

[NickBaragona]

Ok, if I take those 2 out, its still a decent payout.

• 11/20/2010 10:00 PM UFC Fighting 1502 George Sotiropoulos* -215 vs Joe Lauzon
• 11/20/2010 11:00 PM Props Fighting 1111 Machida wins by 3 round decision* +125 vs Not Machida by 3 round decision

Risking $52.00 To Win $119.42 * FREE PLAY

Adding Phil Davis adds about $33, so it may not be worth risking some fluke or dq loss. Jones fight against Hamill comes to mind.

[brooks85]

I think falcao is going to finish him.

imo if its a $50 fp id would definitely add davis. It would take a fluke dq loss, i like those odds.

[NickBaragona]

Yeah I've never seen Falcao fight, I had to check out FightFinder. Gerald Harris has impressed me everytime I've seen him fight though, and he is riding a 10 fight win streak, with 3 of those wins in the UFC.

[brooks85]

i think harris actually has more tools to win the fight and I believe he can go the full 3. The way falcao fights I doubt he can could go a full 15 but its hard to tell until the guy is really pushed. He did a 15 min round six years but its was six years ago ha.

Harris to me is just a big wildcard. I mean for a guy with 19 fights + 2 TUF fights, he looks like a rookie still to me. I just dont get it. His striking style is very similar to Rashad evans. He gets in his stance and just loves winging and countering with overhands and it doesnt really work well but when it lands it is devastating. Against Miranda, someone who forced him into exchanges, he was getting lit up. Miranda had harris hurt to a point where he was one punch away from being out and i think its safe to assume either one of these guys land it will be night over. Falcaos style is just wild and huge volume and the punches find their mark. So harris has to fight really smart. I think falcao has a distinctive striking advantage because he is not going to let harris stalk him.

[RaiderNation MMA]

machida might knockout rampage!! i wudnt bet on a decision! and i hope u did ur research on the dude harris is fighting, could be a stud

[stefan084]

lauzon wins this i think

[JuicedUp]

I dont think machida/page goes to a DEC but GL to you.

[omalley21]

Machida won't finish rampage. If Machida wins, and he probably will, it will be a decision. I'd even put a small straddle with page by KO. Davis won't lose, Id add him. I wouldn't be surprised if Lauzon beats Sot though.

[jin2daj]

i like harris. hes tough and strong and he's been very impressive in all his fights ive seen. if he loses though, itll be by sub; no way he loses by dec or ko/tko

[ApexCap]

Luazon isn't beating soti, I would take off harris and add aaron simpson. Leave davis.

[Vaughany]

i think harris actually has more tools to win the fight and I believe he can go the full 3. The way falcao fights I doubt he can could go a full 15 but its hard to tell until the guy is really pushed. He did a 15 min round six years but its was six years ago ha.

Harris to me is just a big wildcard. I mean for a guy with 19 fights + 2 TUF fights, he looks like a rookie still to me. I just dont get it. His striking style is very similar to Rashad evans. He gets in his stance and just loves winging and countering with overhands and it doesnt really work well but when it lands it is devastating. Against Miranda, someone who forced him into exchanges, he was getting lit up. Miranda had harris hurt to a point where he was one punch away from being out and i think its safe to assume either one of these guys land it will be night over. Falcaos style is just wild and huge volume and the punches find their mark. So harris has to fight really smart. I think falcao has a distinctive striking advantage because he is not going to let harris stalk him.

Good points Brooks, this will be the first time that Harris has faced an aggressive striker in the UFC, will be interesting to see how he deals with it or if he can deal with it. Just a small play on Falcao winning in first round for me at the moment.

[jacktheknife]

i like harris. hes tough and strong and he's been very impressive in all his fights ive seen. if he loses though, itll be by sub; no way he loses by dec or ko/tko

I don't think you've quite got a handle on the guy he's facing.

[NickBaragona]

I'm removing Harris from the parlay, because of how little I know about his opponent. I am also removing Sotiropolous, because I really don't like betting against Lauzon. What do you think about Tyson Griffins chances against Nick Lentz? I don't see Griffin dropping 2 losses in a row.

[NickBaragona]

• 11/20/2010 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1402 Phil Davis* -525 vs Tim Boetsch
• 11/20/2010 7:00 PM UFC Fighting 2102 Tyson Griffin* -210 vs Nick Lentz
• 11/20/2010 11:59 PM Props Fighting 1111 Machida wins by 3 round decision* +155 vs Not Machida by 3 round decision

Risking $52.00 To Win $181.03 * FREE PLAY
I haven't placed it yet, waiting to see what people think of Nick Lentz in this fight.

[lasker]

this is a stronger parlay than the first one imo (though I'm one of the few who believes that Machida has a decent chance of finishing Rampage). I'm betting Griffin as well. If he loses, it would actually be Griffin's third loss in a row, not his second, but that shouldn't factor into the capping (except that he has added pressure on him in this fight to avoid getting cut). Lentz is a pretty one-dimensional wrestler, and I don't even think he'll have a wrestling advantage. If he does manage to take Griffin down, Griffin's one of the best scramblers in the division and he'll manage to reverse or get back to his feet. As for striking, Griffin is a lot more diverse and technical with his strikes. He also has lots of experience facing strong wrestlers (Edgar, Guida, Sherk), and he kept it close with them, and all of them have a much better all-round game than Lentz does. Lentz really struggled putting Andre Winner on his back; that doesn't bode well for his chances against Griffin. Griffin wins by decision yet again, only it will be more boring than usual.

[Vaughany]

• 11/20/2010 10:30 PM UFC Fighting 1402 Phil Davis* -525 vs Tim Boetsch
• 11/20/2010 7:00 PM UFC Fighting 2102 Tyson Griffin* -210 vs Nick Lentz
• 11/20/2010 11:59 PM Props Fighting 1111 Machida wins by 3 round decision* +155 vs Not Machida by 3 round decision

Risking $52.00 To Win $181.03 * FREE PLAY
I haven't placed it yet, waiting to see what people think of Nick Lentz in this fight.

Looks good to me I also cant see Griffin lsing for 3rd time in a row, I would think the Gomi loss was a big wake up call for him. Lentz has better wrestling credentials on paper but doesnt have a big enough advantage in that or strength advantage to be able to lay n pray on Griffin for 3 rounds. Griffin should have better striking, BJJ and cardio plus a lot more determination and hunger than previously as this really is must win for him IMO.

[NickBaragona]

Ok thanks, I'm close to locking it in! For those that think Machida may finish Rampage, do u think it will be early or late in the fight? The fight going over 2.5 rounds is -110, not a bad bet imo.

[lasker]

I hope and believe that if Machida finishes Rampage there's a good chance it happens in the last round, but a lot depends on when Rampage gets frustrated and how he reacts. And of course, as a general rule remember that way more fights end in the first round compared with those that end in the third.

[Vaughany]

Ok thanks, I'm close to locking it in! For those that think Machida may finish Rampage, do u think it will be early or late in the fight? The fight going over 2.5 rounds is -110, not a bad bet imo.

Over 2.5 rounds is +114 on pinnacle, which I may have to take if I cant get Machida by dec at reasonable odds.

[snake11eyes]

I love Griffin at -200. No way Lentz can duplicate what he did to Winner in his last fight. The other two fights Im staying away.

[KCJMAC]

Very difficult to predict how Rampage is going to fight after his recent performances, so Machida by dec seems the most likely outcome.

[Varker]

Machida koing rampage is so unlikely. Machida doesn't have the power.

[jin2daj]

I love Griffin at -200. No way Lentz can duplicate what he did to Winner in his last fight. The other two fights Im staying away.

me too. im shocked its not closer to -300.

[Root4Stlrs]

Griffen is on 2 fight losing streak but he is a good bet...

[cky312]

I might consider changing your second parlay to Griffin by decision depending on the line, seeing how Lentz is fairly one-dimensional but is tough to finish.

[lasker]

Unfortunately Griffin by decision is not available at 5dimes, since it's not a main card fight. I guess for European bettors it's possible though, maybe with PaddyPower.

[Vrakas]

to me your 4 pics are very likely to hit.i say go for it.

[cky312]

Unfortunately Griffin by decision is not available at 5dimes, since it's not a main card fight. I guess for European bettors it's possible though, maybe with PaddyPower.

Yes, I wanted to make that prop bet myself but 5dimes is the only site I have under deposit that even has props. Only if it did, I'd likely make a fair size wager myself.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Tough decision. Good luck.

[Vaughany]

Unfortunately Griffin by decision is not available at 5dimes, since it's not a main card fight. I guess for European bettors it's possible though, maybe with PaddyPower.

None of the EU sites offer prop bets on undercard either unfortunatly otherwise I'd of taken Griffin by dec and Hallman by dec.

[Straight Cash]

I like the final parlay you picked, I'm on 2 of them already.

[NickBaragona]

I ended up playing it safe, and bet on machida, davis, and griffin straight up. Still pays out $74. I plan on making a smaller $20 parlay with machida by decision. Wish me luck!

[Vaughany]

I ended up playing it safe, and bet on machida, davis, and griffin straight up. Still pays out $74. I plan on making a smaller $20 parlay with machida by decision. Wish me luck!

I wish u luck sir! And they seem good to me.