Upcoming UFC Locks

[RaiderNation MMA]

hey guys, my first post, but lets go

not sure on the lines, but here are some locks i have to win. locks you can bet very confidently on.

Jose aldo vs. josh grispi.

-load the house on aldo, this is the ufc's way of introducing aldo to the mainstream market. make no mistake, josh is a sacrifical lamb. as good as josh looks, he is no where near aldo. trust me.

pat berry vs. joey beltran

if you have the chance to grow and crop a million farms before january, do it, then bet every single farm on pat berry. the line will be ridic but theres no chance in hell beltran wins. berry is a fantastic powerful striker, and beltran is a wild brawler. however beltran couldnt even beat matt mitrione, let alone provide a half ass shot. berry rocked cro cop twice, this will be a swift KO for berry against beltran.

melvin guillard vs. yves edwards

yves edwards is a pioneer of mma, but he is getting old. in some aspects, melvin is the quicker and stonger version of yves. this will be an exciting stand up war, but make no mistake, melvin will send yves to the front of the social secuirty check line. yves has nothing to offer melvin tha melvin isnt already better at.


the spelling and grammar was probably terrible, but i hope u got what i was trying to say. i wanna get into betting it seems easy enough and ive won multiple dvds off ufc.com just for predicting fights correctly. but i wud just like to help contribute to the group. btw, what are sbr points good for??

peace

[JuicedUp]

btw, what are sbr points good for?? peace

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/598617-sbr-points-what-they-how-do-i-get-them.html

Welcome.

[RaiderNation MMA]

thanks!! im gonna blow all my points on pizza!

[Vaughany]

I agree, all three should win but wouldnt necessarily say they're locks! Probly be a lot of chalk as well, Aldo will be -400, Guillard at least -250 and Barry -225 I reckon.

[lasker]

I don't believe in locks but I agree with your analysis, all three should win decisively. BTW Vaughany, Barry -225 would be a steal in my opinion.

[Vaughany]

I don't believe in locks but I agree with your analysis, all three should win decisively. BTW Vaughany, Barry -225 would be a steal in my opinion.

I agree, bit optimistic but if pinnacle are one of the first books to release the line I wouldnt be surprised to see it at -225 to -250, but will no doubt go to -300 to -375 range eventually so its gonna be one of those wer u'll have to catch it as soon as it comes out.

[rocky mattioli]

I agree, all three should win but wouldnt necessarily say they're locks! Probly be a lot of chalk as well, Aldo will be -400, Guillard at least -250 and Barry -225 I reckon.

this...you lose one,the day is basically(at best) a wash....i think grispi is very dangerous...

and you`ll have to hope like hell that barry doesn`t take a shine to beltran before the fight.....lol

[Vaughany]

this...you lose one,the day is basically(at best) a wash....i think grispi is very dangerous...

and you`ll have to hope like hell that barry doesn`t take a shine to beltran before the fight.....lol

ha yeah Barry might be overawed by how cool Beltran's nickname is!

[RaiderNation MMA]

i understand the lines are whats important when making a wager, and that these 3 will be heavy favorites, but the pat berry and melvin fights will be on the same card, perhaps a nice parlay with thoose two would be good business. yup, even locks can lose, but if any of these 3 fighters lost it would be a real shock

[Vaughany]

i understand the lines are whats important when making a wager, and that these 3 will be heavy favorites, but the pat berry and melvin fights will be on the same card, perhaps a nice parlay with thoose two would be good business. yup, even locks can lose, but if any of these 3 fighters lost it would be a real shock

Yep, I was thinking earlier of a Guillard, Barry and Mitrione treble as they are all fighting at Fight for the Troops, should work out at better than +150 or something.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i really like that parlay man, i think i will do that, tim hague hasnt shown much lately and meathaead is slighty under rated. steer clear of ken flo and dunham tho, that is a razor close fight, too close for my comfort

[sideloaded]

Loading up on huge favorites like this is just asking for ruin. You do know BJ penn was like -500 for the first fight with Edgar and lost. Losing one of these "locks" would destroy your bankroll.

[RaiderNation MMA]

very true, but 95% of the time they will pull through. i suppose there is no such thing as a lock in any sport, but consider these, "heavy heavy favorites"

[Vaughany]

i really like that parlay man, i think i will do that, tim hague hasnt shown much lately and meathaead is slighty under rated. steer clear of ken flo and dunham tho, that is a razor close fight, too close for my comfort

I agree, I'll just be betting on Dunham/KenFlo going to decision.

[RaiderNation MMA]

i guess its safe to say, grey and frankie will go to decision too huh? lol

and might as well add gsp and kos

its blanket vs. snuggie

[snake11eyes]

this...you lose one,the day is basically(at best) a wash....i think grispi is very dangerous...

I agree betting on heavy chalk and it will be very hard to profit at the end of the day. I've been saying to watch out for the fluke since the fight was announced. If you can get Grispi at +300 I see lots of value in this line. There are probably only two or three guys at featherweight that can give Aldo trouble Grispi being one of them.

[terpkeg]

All three should win and there is nothing wrong with playing favs as long as you find value still. Hard to say any of these are good plays withoug seeing the lines though. Yeah Pat Barry -250 against Beltran is a great play imo, but Barry -650, not so much. Barry still seems to be undervalued and you may see under -300, but he got steamed pretty hard against Cro Cop and I woud think linemakers would consider this. Plus, I wonder how the injuries have healed and how they have or are going to effect training, if at all.

No way Aldo is below -400 imo.

Guillard may be the best play of the bunch if Edwards name value holds the line down. However, he went off as an underdog to John Gundersen last time out, so I would hit this line early.

BOL on your plays

[chris pervine]

thats some good tips.

[shady610]

I need locks with underdog odds

[Conan]

Hughes is going to smack BJ and i beleve the line is +124 not much but its something

[jacktheknife]

very true, but 95% of the time they will pull through. i suppose there is no such thing as a lock in any sport, but consider these, "heavy heavy favorites"

In fact, the win rate of favorites this year is more like 65%. And that very much includes "heavy favorites". Real genius locks like Ross Pearson, John Hathaway, Marius Zaromskis, Dan Henderson and, in fact, Pat Barry before he marked out on Cro Cop.

The rates are high enough to get you in the long run. Leaning on the heavies is no way to bet.

[Vaughany]

Hughes is going to smack BJ and i beleve the line is +124 not much but its something

+151 on pinnacle and +140 on sports book, definite value in that IMO.

[Vaughany]

In fact, the win rate of favorites this year is more like 65%. And that very much includes "heavy favorites". Real genius locks like Ross Pearson, John Hathaway, Marius Zaromskis, Dan Henderson and, in fact, Pat Barry before he marked out on Cro Cop.

The rates are high enough to get you in the long run. Leaning on the heavies is no way to bet.

Can add King Mo, Fedor, Kauffman, BJ, Tyson Griffin, even P.Thiago against Kampmann. Going with the dogs the majority of the time is definitely the way to go.

[RaiderNation MMA]

great tips yall

only underdog lock i can give u is sean mcorkle, i cant stress enough how easy he will beat struve.

while a straight bet on either one of these will return chump change, i guess u could consider them a free parlay play

whats BOL mean

[jacktheknife]

+151 on pinnacle and +140 on sports book, definite value in that IMO.

Ain't got much on the record, but I'm up about 12u in my whole "career" and the biggest payday I've had yet was Hughes over Almeida. That should lend some weight to when I say don't go hard on this one. People are sleeping on Matt hard (I like how they grind on "uninspiring performances of late" while they completely pave over the fact that he got butted during the Serra fight) but BJ's not one of these Team Renzo guys.

[Vaughany]

Ain't got much on the record, but I'm up about 12u in my whole "career" and the biggest payday I've had yet was Hughes over Almeida. That should lend some weight to when I say don't go hard on this one. People are sleeping on Matt hard (I like how they grind on "uninspiring performances of late" while they completely pave over the fact that he got butted during the Serra fight) but BJ's not one of these Team Renzo guys.

I agree, I'm just going to have a small play on the fight going to decision. But if I had to pick one to win with the odds as they are I'd go with Hughes at +151.

[MadTiger]

whats BOL mean

Best of Luck

(for those without the locks!)

[Vrakas]

hughes aldo machida nate simpson sotiropoulos worth a small parlay.

[BobbyXxX]

The heavy chalk on favorites turns south real fast when they dont come through..parlays are the devil..but theyre still my favorite way to tap into the heavy favorites

[RaiderNation MMA]

word bobby.

oo best of luck icic

do ppl actually parlay over multiple cards??

[jin2daj]

i like your "locks", will probably dump sbr points on em as i dont like playing favorites with real money

[RaiderNation MMA]

but if u only bet on dogs, i assume u lose alot?? but when u win u win big?

[snake11eyes]

do ppl actually parlay over multiple cards??

Anytime I make a parlay with 4 or more fighters its always over multiple cards. Its very difficult to find 5 or 6 guys on any one card that you think will win.

[RaiderNation MMA]

ahh icc

doesnt that get annoying tho having to tie up money that long?

ufc cards are generally a month apart

[snake11eyes]

ahh icc

doesnt that get annoying tho having to tie up money that long?

ufc cards are generally a month apart

Not really because when you make a 5 or 6 fighter parlay a $10 or $20 bet usually will return thousands if you have a couple dogs in it. Sometimes I even forget I made the parlay. When I log in for the next card I look at open bets and see it in there.