ilmatick/eccocide/vaughany....thomson/cavalcante?

[rocky mattioli]

and anyone else with an opinion on this one...

very,very interesting fight.....the odds are relatively close...my initial,kneejerk reaction was thomson...but the more i looked,the less confident i became....

any feelings on this one....not necessarily from a betting perspective...just interested in any opinions...

i think it`s a fascinating match-up if everything i`m hearing about cavalcante`s knee being 100 % is true...

he actually asked for this bout...wanted to fight thomson...

thanks in advance...

[sundin4prez]

going with thompson.... i think thompson will be able to replicate his performance against healy, mix it up on the feet, prevent takedowns then use his own wrestling to score points at the end of the round.... i see thompson winning by a close ded

[rocky mattioli]

going with thompson.... i think thompson will be able to replicate his performance against healy, mix it up on the feet, prevent takedowns then use his own wrestling to score points at the end of the round.... i see thompson winning by a close ded

much appreciate the response...i was thinking similarly...i felt that thomson`s struggle with healy was due to the natural size differential...not sure thomson would have won a decision...but healy is very underrated,imo...

i watched cavalcante vs lauzon(which strangely enough doesn`t appear on cavalcante`s fight finder record...unsanctioned bout?)......and he was just too strong for lauzon...

truthfully,all 4 fights on this card are well made....good,competitive fights...excellent matchmaking...

i know some are down on strikeforce,but i prefer having multiple organizations that have the ability to put on solid shows....ufc has a propensity to throw some absolutely lousy cards together...and without some competition,i fear white would give even less of a shit about the fans than he already does...

[sundin4prez]

much appreciate the response...i was thinking similarly...i felt that thomson`s struggle with healy was due to the natural size differential...not sure thomson would have won a decision...but healy is very underrated,imo...

i watched cavalcante vs lauzon(which strangely enough doesn`t appear on cavalcante`s fight finder record...unsanctioned bout?)......and he was just too strong for lauzon...

truthfully,all 4 fights on this card are well made....good,competitive fights...excellent matchmaking...

i know some are down on strikeforce,but i prefer having multiple organizations that have the ability to put on solid shows....ufc has a propensity to throw some absolutely lousy cards together...and without some competition,i fear white would give even less of a shit about the fans than he already does...

true, i LOVE strikforce.... i cant see why people are down on it, its free entertainment..... people will trash the hershel walker, lashley fights but will happily toss there $50 down to watch a 42 year old overweight, steroid user boxer get his ass handed to him by a wrestler....

personally i love me some strikeforce, bellator, king of the cage stuff and most importantly DREAM.

[Vaughany]

I see a Thomson decision win as well and at the current odds available would only bet on that if it was available rather then betting on Thomson to win or GZ to win. Best odds available are -155 at Sportbet for Thomson (which I dont see value in) and +153 at Pinnacle for GZ. If Thomson was at -125 Id consider a bet and if Cavalcante was closer to the +200 range I'd take him. Cavalcante is decent on the ground and feet - he is only fighter to of submitted Rani Yahya (in 40 seconds of first round as well) who is an awesome blackbelt - but then Yahya fights in the bantamweight division now so had an obvious size disadvantage. Thomson is a Camarillo Guerilla BJJ black-belt though so GZ shouldn't have any major advantage on the ground. Should also bear in mind that Thomson broke two ribs in the first round of the Healy fight yet still went on to choke him out in the third round which shows serious heart. As I wont be able to get Thomson by decision anywhere, I wont be placing any bets on this event (saving it for UFC120), and like you said Rocky, all four fights are very competitive and the odds are about right across the board so I dont see any obvious value in betting on any of the fighters in this event; unless Noons goes up to +220 to +240 range then I may have to jump on that!

[rocky mattioli]

thanks for the responses...much appreciated....

good info,vaughany...i admit to being a little surprised seeing the diaz odds go skyward......i have diaz in a par....i think he`ll find a way.....but i`m certainly not willing to lay odds on him......

i did take a shot with coenen moving down in weight(+245)...maybe the weight cut takes a toll....maybe not...but it`s a 5 rounder and i think a bigger,taller coenen with a well rounded sklillset is worth a small shot...

kaufman has great hands and is very physically strong at 135.... but i`m not entirely sure about her power...not impossible that in a drawn out fight that it could end up on the ground late...

i thought coenen showed a nice right hand in spots vs cyborg...but she`s strictly a "one/two" and done boxer...never a third shot...and after the right hand she has her thumb up her ass and doesn`t always move out of range...it`s like a short circuit happens...nobody`s ever taught this experienced fighter how to throw 3 punches together?...

still,given her skillset and toughness,this should be kaufman`s toughest test to date...

looking forward to the card...

[Vaughany]

thanks for the responses...much appreciated....

good info,vaughany...i admit to being a little surprised seeing the diaz odds go skyward......i have diaz in a par....i think he`ll find a way.....but i`m certainly not willing to lay odds on him......

i did take a shot with coenen moving down in weight(+245)...maybe the weight cut takes a toll....maybe not...but it`s a 5 rounder and i think a bigger,taller coenen with a well rounded sklillset is worth a small shot...

kaufman has great hands and is very physically strong at 135.... but i`m not entirely sure about her power...not impossible that in a drawn out fight that it could end up on the ground late...

i thought coenen showed a nice right hand in spots vs cyborg...but she`s strictly a "one/two" and done boxer...never a third shot...and after the right hand she has her thumb up her ass and doesn`t always move out of range...it`s like a short circuit happens...nobody`s ever taught this experienced fighter how to throw 3 punches together?...

still,given her skillset and toughness,this should be kaufman`s toughest test to date...

looking forward to the card...

Yee I have considered a play on Coenen. She is +256 on Pinnacle now so I may have to put a small play on her at that value. Will probly wait till just before the fight in case it gets even better tho. I think Kaufman's only clear advantage is size but as you say Coenan is coming down a division so the strength advantage might not be so great.

[Eccocide]

I dont time right now but I will give my thoughts on the fight later on tonight or early tomorrow if I can. The quick answer is I believe Thomson is the right side, and I just placed a play on him. He's at -136 at Pinny which I believe is great value. Im not too worried about fading the line movement as I believe their a lot of JZ backers out there who expect him to return to the form he had 3 years ago, but from the tape I've watched I just dont see it. Gotta run!

[Vaughany]

As Ecco said above, Thomson is -136 on Pinny now which I agree is decent value, especially seeing as -155 were the best odds available when I wrote my initial response yesterday, and all the other bookies still have him at -150 to -200 range, so I've decided to put a unit on him at the -136 on pinnacle.

[Eccocide]

Just some of my thoughts on the matchup and why I took Thomson. If you watch JZ's last 2 fights, you will notice that since his surgeries, his speed and movement just arent the same as they used to be. He used to be able to bounce in and out of the pocket extremely quickly, surprising his opponents and overwhelming them with his power. He just doesnt look to be the same fighter anymore. He's only had 2 fights in the last 2 years. Kawajiri was able to outstrike him on the feet, take him down repeatedly and control him on the ground. He struggled standing in his last fight against Kikuno and while Kikuno is a respected striker, I believe Thomson has more to offer on the feet. I also think Thomsons wrestling is pretty underrated and even though Im not sure he can stuff every takedown attempt from JZ, Im pretty confident he can get it back to the feet pretty quickly. Another factor that I like in this fight is the experience in the cage. Thomson is used to the cage and his training regimen stays pretty much the same. JZ who has had pretty much all of his fights in Japan in a ring has to adapt to a new environment and learn the nuances of the cage very quickly, all while fighting a top-tiered guy. Overall, I expect Thomson to use his versatility on the feet, mix in some kicks, use the angles of the cage and dictate the pace. I think it will be a close fight, but I think Thomson will be the fresher and more active fighter come the last half of the fight and that will make the difference. This is an extremely important fight for him if he wants the trilogy with Melendez to happen anytime soon.

[lasker]

Just some of my thoughts on the matchup and why I took Thomson. If you watch JZ's last 2 fights, you will notice that since his surgeries, his speed and movement just arent the same as they used to be. He used to be able to bounce in and out of the pocket extremely quickly, surprising his opponents and overwhelming them with his power. He just doesnt look to be the same fighter anymore. He's only had 2 fights in the last 2 years. Kawajiri was able to outstrike him on the feet, take him down repeatedly and control him on the ground. He struggled standing in his last fight against Kikuno and while Kikuno is a respected striker, I believe Thomson has more to offer on the feet. I also think Thomsons wrestling is pretty underrated and even though Im not sure he can stuff every takedown attempt from JZ, Im pretty confident he can get it back to the feet pretty quickly. Another factor that I like in this fight is the experience in the cage. Thomson is used to the cage and his training regimen stays pretty much the same. JZ who has had pretty much all of his fights in Japan in a ring has to adapt to a new environment and learn the nuances of the cage very quickly, all while fighting a top-tiered guy. Overall, I expect Thomson to use his versatility on the feet, mix in some kicks, use the angles of the cage and dictate the pace. I think it will be a close fight, but I think Thomson will be the fresher and more active fighter come the last half of the fight and that will make the difference. This is an extremely important fight for him if he wants the trilogy with Melendez to happen anytime soon.

Excellent analysis

[flickavic]

WOW great job breakin down the fight guys. ive gone with Thompson and after reading your thoughts Imhappy I have.

[rocky mattioli]

Just some of my thoughts on the matchup and why I took Thomson. If you watch JZ's last 2 fights, you will notice that since his surgeries, his speed and movement just arent the same as they used to be. He used to be able to bounce in and out of the pocket extremely quickly, surprising his opponents and overwhelming them with his power. He just doesnt look to be the same fighter anymore. He's only had 2 fights in the last 2 years. Kawajiri was able to outstrike him on the feet, take him down repeatedly and control him on the ground. He struggled standing in his last fight against Kikuno and while Kikuno is a respected striker, I believe Thomson has more to offer on the feet. I also think Thomsons wrestling is pretty underrated and even though Im not sure he can stuff every takedown attempt from JZ, Im pretty confident he can get it back to the feet pretty quickly. Another factor that I like in this fight is the experience in the cage. Thomson is used to the cage and his training regimen stays pretty much the same. JZ who has had pretty much all of his fights in Japan in a ring has to adapt to a new environment and learn the nuances of the cage very quickly, all while fighting a top-tiered guy. Overall, I expect Thomson to use his versatility on the feet, mix in some kicks, use the angles of the cage and dictate the pace. I think it will be a close fight, but I think Thomson will be the fresher and more active fighter come the last half of the fight and that will make the difference. This is an extremely important fight for him if he wants the trilogy with Melendez to happen anytime soon.

well done....everyone that responded had something of substance to add to the conversation...

thanks,guys....