Multi-fighter Parlay Question/Help

[snake11eyes]

One last time I want to know what the majority would do in this situation. I'm sure we have all been here before. I have a open 6 man parlay. I already won the first 4 legs. Warren/Vanier/Schambari/Lewis the payout is 25 to win 1675. The last two plays are Lytle over Serra and Cerrone over Varner. What do you do now if you're me?

[ddream1]

well to me it already sounds like u aren't an all for nothing guy, hedge the 1st mma fight to get your money back and say another $25. if then see were u are for the final leg for a bigger hedge pay day or let whats left ride.

to me always take the easy money and run.

[sundin4prez]

the last 2 plays seem very risky to me.... its time to hedge, ie. bet the opposite sides of those 2 plays to guarentee some profit....

best of luck

[KCJMAC]

If it were me, I like Lytle a lot versus Serra so I would let it ride there. Then you've got Cerrone at +150 with a 40% chance of winning. Close to a toss-up. I'd probably let that ride as well. But it basically comes down to how risk averse you are. I usually only arb out of parlays when I have 5 units or more at risk and/or something has changed in the upcoming fights that I don't like.

Regardless, you are in a great position with only $25 at risk. Well done, Snake.

[spargament]

This is a terrific dilemma to be in (as already mentioned)...Probably should hedge depending on units??

I love Lytle over Serra, and really don't like cerrone...my 2 cents for whatever theyre worth. Varner is gonna be mighty pissed after the fiasco with Shalorus...

[Kaladarus]

The safest way if you want to win no matter what would be to do it one fight at a time. Put a small amound on Serra and if Lytle wins then put a small amount on Varner. Or you can wait after the small play on Serra if Lytle wins and see what you want to do from there.

[playa420]

you should probably hedge man. I really like varner in the rematch, im pretty sure he was dominating pretty good before the illegal knee in the first fight.

[sundin4prez]

its iffy.... if it were me i would hedge like crazy.... i think the cerrone match will be close but i swear that the fights i watch of him he has little to no takedown defense....it would suck to lose on the last 2 legs of the parlay so i would atleast want to guarantee atleast some profit

[snake11eyes]

well to me it already sounds like u aren't an all for nothing guy, hedge the 1st mma fight to get your money back and say another $25. if then see were u are for the final leg for a bigger hedge pay day or let whats left ride.

to me always take the easy money and run.

Yea I'm definitely not all or nothing.

[snake11eyes]

the last 2 plays seem very risky to me.... its time to hedge, ie. bet the opposite sides of those 2 plays to guarentee some profit....

best of luck

Thanks Sundin, I usually hedge I'm just trying to see what the majority does.

[snake11eyes]

If it were me, I like Lytle a lot versus Serra so I would let it ride there. Then you've got Cerrone at +150 with a 40% chance of winning. Close to a toss-up. I'd probably let that ride as well. But it basically comes down to how risk averse you are. I usually only arb out of parlays when I have 5 units or more at risk and/or something has changed in the upcoming fights that I don't like.

Regardless, you are in a great position with only $25 at risk. Well done, Snake.

Thanks KC, I had originally wanted to put Lauzon by sub +1600 in the parlay. God only knows what it would have paid then. When I wasn't allowed to do it I like Cerrone so I stuck him at the end figuring he would drive the price up and I could hedge if it gets that far.

[snake11eyes]

This is a terrific dilemma to be in (as already mentioned)...Probably should hedge depending on units??

I love Lytle over Serra, and really don't like cerrone...my 2 cents for whatever theyre worth. Varner is gonna be mighty pissed after the fiasco with Shalorus...

I really like Lytle a lot I might let it go one more.

[snake11eyes]

The safest way if you want to win no matter what would be to do it one fight at a time. Put a small amound on Serra and if Lytle wins then put a small amount on Varner. Or you can wait after the small play on Serra if Lytle wins and see what you want to do from there.

Kaladarus, this response really shocked me. I thought you would tell me all or nothing for sure.

[Kaladarus]

I'm an all or nothing type of guy myself. I don't make parlays very often and when I do they don't have odds like this one. Usually I'm very confident in every fighter I pick so there's no need for me to hedge. Unless something happens that changes the fight.(rumors of injuries, bad weight cut, etc.) When I initially handicap a fight I have a specific reason for picking who I pick and therefore I don't see a purpose in changing anything. In your case I'm sure you feel similar, (confident in your initial picks) but you're either worried about the money or have lost some confidence in your picks. For a parlay that wins you so much more than your initial investment, it's not that bad to guarantee a small amount of money back. Personally, I would take out the picks you're not as sure about and avoid these situations all together. In this case though, both Serras and Varners prices have improved from when you initially placed your bet. They're probably not good enough to turn a profit arbing, but at least they've improved.

[lasker]

Personally, I like your chances to win the last two legs of the parlay. Maybe hedge one at a time to guarantee a small profit if things don't go your way, but I would just keep the bulk of it with the parlay as it is. Whatever happens, great picks.

[Vaughany]

I cant see Cerrone beating Varner...Varner dominated the last fight - especially in the first three rounds and this will be a three round fight, expecting 29-28 across the board in favour of Varner.

[NOLA42]

this is such a good problem you have lol

[snake11eyes]

I cant see Cerrone beating Varner...Varner dominated the last fight - especially in the first three rounds and this will be a three round fight, expecting 29-28 across the board in favour of Varner.

I know you like Varner, but what are you saying to do. Let it ride with Lytle and then hedge the last play.

[Vaughany]

I know you like Varner, but what are you saying to do. Let it ride with Lytle and then hedge the last play.

Well Im quite a conservative better anyway so I wouldn't let either of them ride if I was in this situation, especially seeing as Lytle and Serra is a toss-up in my opinion. Too be honest Im a bit bias as Serra is one of my favourite fighters, although I do think Lytle has a slight edge but I wouldn't let it ride. At the end of the day, I work on the 'worst-case scenario' basis of what would I be most pissed off about - would I be more pissed if I hedged the plays, and Serra won and Cerrone won, or Serra won and Varner ended up winning, but I only ended up winning $200 to $600; or would I be more pissed if I hedged the plays and Lytle and Cerrone win but dont win the full $1000+ because of hedging....Id always take the first option! Personally Id look at a Serra by decision prop bet as it will be at least +350 and I dont see him winning any other way. Then take Varner at -175.

[ufcmma36]

The safest way if you want to win no matter what would be to do it one fight at a time. Put a small amound on Serra and if Lytle wins then put a small amount on Varner. Or you can wait after the small play on Serra if Lytle wins and see what you want to do from there.

The safest way if you want to win no matter what would be to do it one fight at a time. Put a small amound on Serra and if Lytle wins then put a small amount on Varner. Or you can wait after the small play on Serra if Lytle wins and see what you want to do from there.

Perfect!

[cooldavid3169]

One last time I want to know what the majority would do in this situation. I'm sure we have all been here before. I have a open 6 man parlay. I already won the first 4 legs. Warren/Vanier/Schambari/Lewis the payout is 25 to win 1675. The last two plays are Lytle over Serra and Cerrone over Varner. What do you do now if you're me?

Remember what happened last time Lytle fought Serra. That fight was almost as bad as Shamrock vs Severn.

[trixtrix]

I'm sure we have all been here before.

<------ never been here before

[brooks85]

ive been here more times than I can count. I would let it ride even though I don't like the last two matchups. If you can take serra by decision and then vanier by decision id do that.

Is this parlay at 5dimes by any chance?

[snake11eyes]

Personally Id look at a Serra by decision prop bet as it will be at least +350 and I dont see him winning any other way. Then take Varner at -175.

Yea I might take a look at Serra by decision to give me more value. The only thing that's not good about this is Serra subs him I lose the parlay and more.

[snake11eyes]

Is this parlay at 5dimes by any chance?

No Sportbet. Why did you guess 5dimes.

[Vaughany]

Yea I might take a look at Serra by decision to give me more value. The only thing that's not good about this is Serra subs him I lose the parlay and more.

Id be massively shocked if Serra subbed Lytle, out of the 17 losses that Lytle has on his record, none of them were by submission, only one by TKO/KO (Thiago Alves) and all the rest were decision losses (15). Add to that the fact that Serra's BJJ doesnt adapt well to MMA because he is so small and not explosive meaning he cant latch on triangles - he only has one win by submission in his UFC career against Kelly Dullanty way back in 2002. Furthermore, Id be surprised if this fight even goes to the ground, I think it will be a stand-up fight and either be an absolute war or the complete opposite with a lot of hugging and jostling for position against the cage. Im going to be making a big play on this going to decision if I can get it at Evens or better.

[brooks85]

i was going to say if it was at 5d, do a backup parlay with serra by decision and varner by decison because if they win, that is how it will happen.

[Vaughany]

i was going to say if it was at 5d, do a backup parlay with serra by decision and varner by decison because if they win, that is how it will happen.

Yep, no way Varner TKO/KOs or Subs Cerrone. Gutted that Paddypower only do props for UFC main events and not WEC as I'd be all over Varner by decision.

[Vrakas]

i think that serra will win his fight.

[snake11eyes]

i was going to say if it was at 5d, do a backup parlay with serra by decision and varner by decison because if they win, that is how it will happen.

Oh ok. I have a 5dimes account as well, but Sportbet has every betting option that 5dimes does. Not a bad idea backup with another parlay I never thought of that.

[lasker]

Congrats

[Educ8d Degener8]

Niiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiice!

Congrats Snake!

[snake11eyes]

Congrats

Thank You, I just was busting Vaughany for costing me 450 on Varner. I let Lytle ride so minus the 450 I still profited +1200. Check this parlay out I forgot I made it as I don't go on Bodog that much.


6 Team Parlay #184454066 (Placed by Web)
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 9th, 2010 - Bellator Fighting Championships 28 - New Orleans, Louisiana
Lightweights
Both must fight for action.
(102) Carey Vanier +150 Thu@8:00p
Competitor101) Rich "No Love" Clementi
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 11th, 2010 - Shark Fights 13 - Amarillo Civic Center, Amarillo, Texas
Middleweights
Both must fight for action.
(120) Danillo "Indio" Villefort +350 Sat@10:05p
Competitor119) "Smokin'" Joe Villasenor
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 25th, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 119 - Conseco Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana
Both must fight for action.
(187) Chris "Lights Out" Lytle -145 Sat@10:10p
Competitor186) Matt "The Terror" Serra
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 25th, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 119 - Conseco Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana
Both must fight for action.
(184) Ryan "Darth" Bader -165 Sat@10:40p
Competitor185) Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 30th, 2010 - WEC 51 -1st Bank Center, Broomfield, Colorado, United States
Both must fight for action.
(317) Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +160 Thu@11:00p
Competitor316) Jamie "C-4" Varner
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
October 23rd, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 121 - Honda Center, Anaheim, California
UFC Heavyweight Championship
All wagers are valid if bout take place by 1-31-2011
(218) Brock Lesnar -170 Oct 23/10@11:00p
Competitor219) Cain Velasquez
Risk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 2501.34

[Vaughany]

Thank You, I just was busting Vaughany for costing me 450 on Varner. I let Lytle ride so minus the 450 I still profited +1200. Check this parlay out I forgot I made it as I don't go on Bodog that much.


6 Team Parlay #184454066 (Placed by Web)
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 9th, 2010 - Bellator Fighting Championships 28 - New Orleans, Louisiana
Lightweights
Both must fight for action.
(102) Carey Vanier +150 Thu@8:00p
Competitor101) Rich "No Love" Clementi
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 11th, 2010 - Shark Fights 13 - Amarillo Civic Center, Amarillo, Texas
Middleweights
Both must fight for action.
(120) Danillo "Indio" Villefort +350 Sat@10:05p
Competitor119) "Smokin'" Joe Villasenor
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 25th, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 119 - Conseco Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana
Both must fight for action.
(187) Chris "Lights Out" Lytle -145 Sat@10:10p
Competitor186) Matt "The Terror" Serra
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 25th, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 119 - Conseco Field House in Indianapolis, Indiana
Both must fight for action.
(184) Ryan "Darth" Bader -165 Sat@10:40p
Competitor185) Antonio Rogerio "Minotoro" Nogueira
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
September 30th, 2010 - WEC 51 -1st Bank Center, Broomfield, Colorado, United States
Both must fight for action.
(317) Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone +160 Thu@11:00p
Competitor316) Jamie "C-4" Varner
Mixed Martial Arts (Game) Moneyline
October 23rd, 2010 - Ultimate Fighting Championships 121 - Honda Center, Anaheim, California
UFC Heavyweight Championship
All wagers are valid if bout take place by 1-31-2011
(218) Brock Lesnar -170 Oct 23/10@11:00p
Competitor219) Cain Velasquez
Risk US$ 20.00 to win US$ 2501.34

To be honest, ur better off listening to likes of Ill and Ecco with regard to who would win a fight...I've made most of my money off prop bets and straddles - mostly on whether fights go to decision or a particular fighter wins by decision which I seem to have more success with! I did add tho that I thought the only way Varner would win is by decision and still maintain that! I'm probly actually down a couple of units on just straight single bets but up by about 10 units overall thanks to props!