Does anyone bet the draw?

**Ian** · 08-13-10, 09:25 AM

"Straddle" bets are almost always terrible. Because you're making two bets when only one can win, you are essentially laying massive chalk that one of the outcomes will occur. The juice is also higher because you're paying juice on two bets.

The only time these bets even kind of make sense is when one possible outcome has almost no chance of occurring, but even then you're almost always better off just betting on one of the other outcomes rather than making a hedge/straddle.

**Ewoi** · 08-13-10, 11:00 AM

I think its more viable to bet the draw in boxing than in MMA. It is not rare to see draws in boxing because the fight an even amount of rounds (8, 10, or 12 rounds). As oppose to MMA where they fight for an odd number of rounds.

**snake11eyes** · 08-13-10, 11:19 AM

The only circumstance where I would see this being a viable option is like you stated. When you have sizable percentage of your bankroll on a fight split between both guys I think then it would make sense to cover yourself with the draw bet. Then again I never wager more than 20% of my bankroll on any fight.

**KCJMAC** · 08-13-10, 12:00 PM

I'm no mathematician, but it seems like there are some scenarios where this makes sense.

For example, if you like Florian to beat Maynard 70% of the time, and the line is -140 (58%), your edge is about 20%. The vig (if Maynard is +115) is 4.6%. So you decide to bet 14 units on Florian to win 10.

You know Maynard has virtually all of his UFC wins by decision, so you figure that the 30% of the time Florian doesn't win, Maynard wins by decision. Assuming you can get the line Vaughany mentioned in another post (+400 or 20%), your edge is about 50%, and if the vig is 5%, this is also positive expectation so you bet 4 units on Maynard by decision to win 16.

So now you have 18 units at risk, and a significant chance of a decision (when Maynard wins, and when Florian wins but doesn't finish.) Since a draw is +6500 (1.5%), my question is should you ever put .5 units on a draw to win 32.5 units as a hedge?

Bear in mind, 2 out of 60 decisions between UFC 100 and UFC 111 were draws (3.33%), and you expect this fight to go to decision the 70% of the time or more.

Outcomes would look something like this:
Florian win: +10 units minus 4 units of Maynard by decision minus .5 units on draw = +5.5 units
Maynard win by decision: +16 units minus 14 units on Florian minus .5 units on draw = +1.5 units
Draw: +32.5 units minus 14 units on Florian minus 4 units on Maynard = +16.5 units

So if they were to fight a hundred times:
69 times Florian wins 5.5 units for a total of 379.5 units
29 times Maynard wins 1.5 units by decision for a total of 43.5 units
2 times they draw which wins 16.5 units for a total of 33 units
Total: +456 units

If you were to say that Maynard somehow wins and finishes 5% of the time, it would look like this over a hundred fights:
64 times Florian wins 5.5 units for a total of 352 units
29 times Maynard wins 1.5 units by decision for a total of 43.5 units
2 times they draw which wins 16.5 units for a total of 33 units
5 times Maynard wins and finishes losing 18.5 units for a total of -92.5 units
Total: +336 units

In this scenario, you still come out ahead until Maynard wins and finishes 19 times out of hundred, in which case it balances to zero.

I think you could make the case that all three of those bets are positive expectation, but as I said I'm no mathematician.

**snake11eyes** · 08-13-10, 01:35 PM

Well, I'm no mathematician either, but you bring up some valid points. I find it hard to make an argument against anything you said. So then, In this particular situation if placing the bets you mention would be the majority of your bankroll I see no reason why you wouldn't play the draw just as backup.

**ThisGuy** · 08-13-10, 05:54 PM

Or ... place the bet at a book where draws are graded as push - which I assumed was the majority

**Kaladarus** · 08-13-10, 06:42 PM

Originally posted by ThisGuy

Or ... place the bet at a book where draws are graded as push - which I assumed was the majority

Exactly.

Draws don't have much value and most books will refund draws on straight bets. Unfortunately when you start playing props you run the risk of losing money on draws. To cover your bets it would probably be better in that case to bet an even smaller amount on the draw if thats what you want. The only bet you'd have to cover would be Maynard, since Florian is refunded in that case. I think a good thing to look at for draws is the possibility of 10-8 rounds happening. Either a point deduction or complete domination during the round. Not exactly sure about this but off the top of my head I can't think of a situation where either fighters has been in danger of point deduction. Also I don't think either fighter has scored a 10-8 round on a judges score card.

In my opinion the draw on this fight isn't that likely and overall I don't like betting draws. If you think there's a good chance of a draw happening I'd suggest covering the Maynard bet or maybe a little more to profit. Overall I think you're play would be excellent for this match up, but I'd probably play something like 0.1 units on the draw or 0.2 instead of the 0.5 you have suggested.

**Vrakas** · 08-14-10, 09:15 AM

i cant remember the last time a fight came to a draw,perhaps one is about to happen.

**squallsquall** · 08-14-10, 11:50 AM

The bet for draw needs to be profitable on its own, that's the only thing that matters. Your other bets shouldn't be taken into account. "Covering" or "hedging" are almost always losing habits - if your bankroll can't take a possible loss, you've placed a too big bet.

**GoldRush7** · 08-14-10, 12:37 PM

interesting...I don't think I will ever bet it though

**Chairib** · 08-14-10, 01:43 PM

The only time I ever bet on a draw was Wanderlei and Crocop's first fight. The max bet was $500 and the odds were +1300 or so.

**squallsquall** · 08-14-10, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by Chairib

The only time I ever bet on a draw was Wanderlei and Crocop's first fight. The max bet was $500 and the odds were +1300 or so.

+1300 for a draw is absolutely horrible regardless of matchup...

**snake11eyes** · 08-14-10, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by squallsquall

+1300 for a draw is absolutely horrible regardless of matchup...

I dont think I've ever seen a draw that low. If a draw is +1300 it makes no sense to bet it no matter what else you have bet.

**Chairib** · 08-14-10, 08:34 PM

If you guys actually had a clue about that fight and when it happened you'd realize that those odds were great.

**snake11eyes** · 08-14-10, 09:12 PM

Since I don't have a clue about that fight why don't you explain it to me. I'd like to know what would make +1300 for a draw such great value. I see two fighters that are excellent strikers where either could stop the other one at any second.

**Kaladarus** · 08-14-10, 09:50 PM

Both had excellent chins at the time and the fight had special rules. If it went to a decision it would be declared a draw regardless of who was winning the fight. Seems like a solid bet to me.

**squallsquall** · 08-14-10, 09:54 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Since I don't have a clue about that fight why don't you explain it to me. I'd like to know what would make +1300 for a draw such great value. I see two fighters that are excellent strikers where either could stop the other one at any second.

Apparently, the fight was fought with special rules saying the fight would always be ruled a draw if going the distance.

...which of course Chairib could have said in his first post already (or second for that matter), if he really had wanted to add something of value to the thread. But I guess he was too busy listing the max bet and other interesting facts.

**jin2daj** · 08-14-10, 10:22 PM

ive always wanted to bet the draw. the lines always look so attractive at +7000 and up

**mattt616** · 08-14-10, 11:17 PM

Draws in MMA are way too rare and unpredictable to bet on a particular fight.