Alves vs Fitch????

GoldRush7 · 08-04-10, 12:08 AM

I think fitch will take it... He will probably implement the same style he used last time and just gnp it out

GunShard · 08-04-10, 02:21 AM

Fitch should be able to win.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 07:34 AM

A lot of questions with Alves coming off the knee injury and brain surgery. Alves has great striking and excellent takedown defense and has recent wins over great wrestlers in Koscheck and Hughes. GSP was able to take him down at will, however, but he does that to everyone. If Alves is in shape and can stay on his feet, he can take this fight. But that's a lot of ifs.

If Fitch is able to withstand Alves' standup long enough to take this fight in to deep waters (and his chin is GRANITE so he should be able to), then he will eventually take Alves down and grind the decision win out.

When both fighters are completely fresh and have 100% of their cardio, I think Alves owns the advantage because he will be able to keep it standing more often than not. The question is Alves's conditioning. Anyone with any inside info on that out there?

lasker · 08-04-10, 08:38 AM

Good breakdown. I've bet Fitch @-105 (5dimes) for the reasons Shagdogy gave; I think he'll be successful with enough of his takedowns, his chin is as tough as anyone's, and he has a deep undying will to win that is never broken. Alves' will can be broken, I think, if he gets taken down and controlled, and if his conditioning is not up to par. I think it will be a war, but the mentally tougher fighter usually prevails in these sorts of fights and I think that's where Fitch excels. It's also hard to back Alves in his first fight after having brain surgery.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 08:59 AM

I put one unit on Fitch @ Even (BetUS). Very close fight, but there are more questions surrounding Alves. Fitch is rock solid, you know exactly what you're going to get, you just don't know for sure if it's gonna be enough. At even, I feel pretty good with this pick.

lasker · 08-04-10, 10:23 AM

You've never had any problems with BetUS? Their "C" rating on SBR worries me a bit.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 10:49 AM

No problems depositing the cash and placing wagers. Everything's always showed up correctly on my account. I have not withdrawn from them yet, but I hear it's a little bit annoying but that's to be expected in the U.S. anyway. My main complaint with them is that they offer absolutely NOTHING in terms of prop bets for MMA. Lesnar/Carwin was the first and only card I've seen have props and they weren't great anyway. They also tend to have good lines for favorites, which in MMA is not the best. I like dogs better.

cooldavid3169 · 08-04-10, 11:27 AM

This fight is the going to be top 3 fights all year Alves by devastating knock out end of round 2 or early round 3. Fitch doesn't the skill set of GSP so he isn't going to be able to control Avles the whole fight.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 11:46 AM

I agree, Fitch doesn't have the same set of skills as GSP... but he does have one really good skill and that's his wrestling/clinch game. Combine that with an incredible chin and he will always have a chance. If he's unable to get Alves to the ground, it will be a long night for him, IF Alves has the cardio and strength to go 3 rounds coming off everything he's been through the last year.

Vaughany · 08-04-10, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

A lot of questions with Alves coming off the knee injury and brain surgery. Alves has great striking and excellent takedown defense and has recent wins over great wrestlers in Koscheck and Hughes. GSP was able to take him down at will, however, but he does that to everyone. If Alves is in shape and can stay on his feet, he can take this fight. But that's a lot of ifs.

If Fitch is able to withstand Alves' standup long enough to take this fight in to deep waters (and his chin is GRANITE so he should be able to), then he will eventually take Alves down and grind the decision win out.

When both fighters are completely fresh and have 100% of their cardio, I think Alves owns the advantage because he will be able to keep it standing more often than not. The question is Alves's conditioning. Anyone with any inside info on that out there?

Only thing I can add is with regard to the conditioning aspect... Fitch is incredibly anal about what he eats...dude is a health freak whilst Alves likes to party! Not sayin that this means Alves' conditioning will suck because it clearly doesnt, but in terms of preparation you know Fitch is always going to be fully prepared having covered all angles.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 04:51 PM

I agree. Fitch is a much more known entity. You don't have to guess with him. Alves has more questions behind him. That, and the even line for Fitch made me go with Fitch. I just wish BetUS had props because I woulda taken Fitch by decision. I think he's had a few of those before... haha.

Kaladarus · 08-04-10, 05:33 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Only thing I can add is with regard to the conditioning aspect... Fitch is incredibly anal about what he eats...dude is a health freak whilst Alves likes to party! Not sayin that this means Alves' conditioning will suck because it clearly doesnt, but in terms of preparation you know Fitch is always going to be fully prepared having covered all angles.

Agree with this. Another thing to look at is Alves' big weight cut, he was gassed in there last fight when Fitch finished him. Even though it was a long time ago, Fitch pushes a really good fast pace. Also Fitch is very durable. He's better all around. Alves has a punchers chance, but no one has finished Fitch in like 7 years and a decision will probably favor Fitch's wrestling.

Shagdogy · 08-04-10, 05:40 PM

Not to mention the only time Fitch was KO'd was by a knee to the face. He took probably the hardest right hand I've ever seen GSP throw right to the chin, mouth guard goes flying and all, and he still wasn't finished. Unless Alves lands a flush knee directly to the jaw, Fitch will remain conscious enough to fight for 3 rounds and will have plenty of time to grind like only Fitch grinds. As a fan, I'd have to root for Alves. But my money's on Fitch.

Educ8d Degener8 · 08-04-10, 05:57 PM

I'm still leaning Fitch -- I think there's value there (stamina, chin, no health issues, no weight cut).

Buuuuut, keep in mind Alves, although taken down mercilessly by Georges WAS able to get up from GSP's top position to get things standing again. So he will likely be able to do so against Fitch. Just throwing that out there. But yeah, I'm still leaning Fitch

Handjuice · 08-04-10, 08:26 PM

Fitchzzzzzz by decision. Alves has been too inactive imo.

wake14 · 08-04-10, 11:02 PM

Love alves!!!

RollPlayer · 08-05-10, 12:29 AM

I think this is very much a toss up. Alves should win on the feet, Fitch on the ground. I don't know if Fitch can get him there consistently though to eek out a decision. But with a fighter coming off of two surgeries and a year layoff after being dominated I'll take the other guy. Fitch by decision

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by Shagdogy

I agree. Fitch is a much more known entity. You don't have to guess with him. Alves has more questions behind him. That, and the even line for Fitch made me go with Fitch. I just wish BetUS had props because I woulda taken Fitch by decision. I think he's had a few of those before... haha.

ha yee just a few! Apparently Alves missed the open-workouts...alarm bells ringing immediately about weight cutting issues!

vassman86 · 08-05-10, 03:34 AM

Fitch should take this one... Alves will have ring rust!

sundin4prez · 08-05-10, 10:15 AM

loving this fitch, him having wrestling, alves having ring rust and latly he is having a hard time dealing with his weight (dident go ufc sparing session because of it and in interviews fitch isent fight him at anything other then 170)

going big on this one

brooks85 · 08-05-10, 01:00 PM

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 01:30 PM

Loving the usual Alves spiel in the promos (which definitely doesn't make any sense!)... "I want the greatest Jon Fish that ever lived, becos im gonna knock the f**k out out of the greatest Jon Fish that ever lived!!!"

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 02:12 PM

COMPUSTRIKES STATS:
Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves
Fitch-Alves Comparison | Fitch 8-Fight Avg. | Alves 7-Fight Avg. | Fitch-Alves I Stats

Alves 16-6, (8-3 in UFC), a 6-5 favorite over Fitch 22-3 (12-1 in UFC) in a rematch. Fitch dominated their first fight four year ago, knocking out Alves in round two, the only ko loss of Alves’ career.

In that first fight, after a shaky start, Fitch took Alves down three times, and landed 75 ground strikes before scoring the ko with an up kick. Alves landed five strikes all fight.

Which Alves, who hasn’t fought in over a year, will show up vs. Fitch? The Alves who was taken down eleven times by Georges St. Pierre in a one-sided loss, or the Alves that stuffed all five takedown attempts by Josh Koscheck and landed 46 leg strikes enroute to a decision win.

In seven of his fights tracked by CompuStrike, Alves landed an average of 18 leg strikes per fight- that’s 35% of his offensive output. Alves dropped Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan with knees to the head.

Takedown attempts are dirty words around Alves, who did not attempt one in those seven fights, while opponents hit on 18 of 35 (51%). Not the case for Fitch, who was successful on 22 of 35 takedown attempts (63%) in eight of his fights tracked by CompuStrike. Those takedowns led to an average of 86 ground strikes landed per fight among his 119 total strikes landed. That’s 72% of his offense from the ground. He outlanded Saunders (W 3), Thiago (W 3), Gono (W 3) Wilson (W 3), Sanchez (W 3) and Alves (KO 2) 740-142 in total strikes and enjoyed a 21-3 edge in dominant positions. Opponents were credited with 20 submisison attempts, none were successful however.

bogbat · 08-05-10, 02:19 PM

Fitch wins by 3 round decision
+175

Educ8d Degener8 · 08-05-10, 02:59 PM

I've put a unit on Fitch @ +103, and included Fitch by decision (+175) in a parlay as well.

GL all.

Mr.Kitty · 08-05-10, 03:07 PM

The whole world seems to be on Fitch which makes me nervous since I also like Fitch

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

The whole world seems to be on Fitch which makes me nervous since I also like Fitch

Worries me 2...getting dejavu with Tyson Griffin from the other night!

Educ8d Degener8 · 08-05-10, 03:37 PM

Big difference is that Tyson Griffin was pretty heavy chalk against Gomi, whereas this fight is a pick 'em.

Vaughany · 08-05-10, 03:38 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

Big difference is that Tyson Griffin was pretty heavy chalk against Gomi, whereas this fight is a pick 'em.

ha very true! I have 5 times more at risk for Fitch tho!

Vrakas · 08-05-10, 05:15 PM

fight goes the distance most likely.

wake14 · 08-05-10, 06:13 PM

love alves.. sherdog too..

marcoloco · 08-05-10, 08:35 PM

loving alves for this fight

wake14 · 08-05-10, 10:37 PM

love alves and i love hazelett.

phillybadboy · 08-06-10, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

COMPUSTRIKES STATS: Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves Fitch-Alves Comparison | Fitch 8-Fight Avg. | Alves 7-Fight Avg. | Fitch-Alves I Stats Alves 16-6, (8-3 in UFC), a 6-5 favorite over Fitch 22-3 (12-1 in UFC) in a rematch. Fitch dominated their first fight four year ago, knocking out Alves in round two, the only ko loss of Alves’ career. In that first fight, after a shaky start, Fitch took Alves down three times, and landed 75 ground strikes before scoring the ko with an up kick. Alves landed five strikes all fight. Which Alves, who hasn’t fought in over a year, will show up vs. Fitch? The Alves who was taken down eleven times by Georges St. Pierre in a one-sided loss, or the Alves that stuffed all five takedown attempts by Josh Koscheck and landed 46 leg strikes enroute to a decision win. In seven of his fights tracked by CompuStrike, Alves landed an average of 18 leg strikes per fight- that’s 35% of his offensive output. Alves dropped Matt Hughes and Karo Parisyan with knees to the head. Takedown attempts are dirty words around Alves, who did not attempt one in those seven fights, while opponents hit on 18 of 35 (51%). Not the case for Fitch, who was successful on 22 of 35 takedown attempts (63%) in eight of his fights tracked by CompuStrike. Those takedowns led to an average of 86 ground strikes landed per fight among his 119 total strikes landed. That’s 72% of his offense from the ground. He outlanded Saunders (W 3), Thiago (W 3), Gono (W 3) Wilson (W 3), Sanchez (W 3) and Alves (KO 2) 740-142 in total strikes and enjoyed a 21-3 edge in dominant positions. Opponents were credited with 20 submisison attempts, none were successful however.

Vaughny thanks for this, great detective work, very helful for me