Jake Ellenberger vs John Howard is an excellent matchup featuring two young and very talented fighters who both have the potential to make a splash in the welterweight division. Howard is already an impressive 4-0 in the UFC while Ellenberger is 1-1, but both of his fights were against superior competition. He lost what should have been Fight of the Night in a split decision to Carlos Condit despite knocking Condit down and almost turning his lights out on more than one occasion. Condit was deemed a rather large favorite going into that matchup, and Ellenberger emerged the moral victor with his competitive performance.
One thing Ellenberger showed us, beyond any doubt, is that he is one of the hardest hitting welterweights in the division. In his second UFC fight he TKO'd the ever-tough Mike Pyle mere seconds into the 2nd round. Just some quick background on Mike Pyle. Pyle is a fighter who fought Quinton Jackson in his MMA debut (!!) and, in what was only his third fight, became the first and only man to submit Jon Fitch (in fairness to Fitch, it was his MMA debut). In 27 fights, Pyle had only been knocked out once before. Ellenberger absolutely destroyed him.
Ellenberger is favored but he is not a prohibitive favorite, as John Howard has defeated respectable opposition in the UFC and won his last two fights by KO. Howard has good standup and is very dangerous on the ground, and he has an uncanny ability to remain very calm in the midst of a storm (see his most fight against Daniel Roberts, for instance).
In the end, I think this fight is correctly priced. I think Ellenberger is the favorite because of his lethal power and because he is a better wrestler than Howard. He should be able to fight a classic "Chuck Liddell" fight in which he keeps the fight standing and just keeps trading until he lands that one big punch. If he does get taken down, it's doubtful whether Howard will be able to keep him down for long. Ellenberger is a coach at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, the current Division II National Wrestling Champions. His wrestling pedigree, while not stellar, is very solid.
However, Howard is not a fish out of water on the feet, and if he does manage to get the fight to the ground (in top position) I think he'll have a notable edge so long as it stays there. So if the fight is fairly well priced, why bother writing a blog about it? Because there is value in a prop: Ellenberger by KO/TKO @+310 (5dimes).
Let's say Ellenberger wins this matchup about 60% of the time, which I consider a slightly conservative estimate. Of those wins, how many would come by KO/TKO? Hardly any would come by submission -- maybe 10% of them at most. Some would come by decision, but most would come from TKO. Ellenberger already has 14 TKO/KO's to his name. Howard seems to have a good chin but has lost by TKO to unknown Woody Weatherby, so it's not impossible to finish him with strikes. I think it's safe to say that for each time Ellenberger would win this matchup, at least 50% would come via TKO/KO (an even more conservative estimate). So we have around 60% x 50%, for about 30% that Ellenberger would be expected to win this fight by TKO/KO. That's a conservative estimate, so I suspect the actual percentage is higher. The prop only gives him around a 24% chance of winning via TKO/KO. I think that's way too low, so I happily make this bet. It's important to note that we don't expect it to win, we just expect it to have a higher chance of winning than the odds indicate. In the long run, that's all you need to make money. Good luck all!
