Takanori Gomi was initially set to face Joe Stevenson, and in my opinion he now faces an even tougher challenge. The Japanese star was once regarded by many as the #1 lightweight in the world, but he has lost much of his mystical aura from the Pride days. He is 2-3 in his last fight fights, and in his last fight -- his much anticipated UFC debut -- he was on the wrong end of a one-sided beatdown and eventual submission against Kenny Florian. While there is no shame in losing to Florian, I believe it was a sign that Gomi will find the competition in the UFC considerably tougher than most of his competition in Pride. Gomi has not evolved as a fighter since his heyday, and I expect his troubles to continue here against Griffin, who is a very difficult opponent for anyone.
Both fighters are coming off of a loss. However, not all fighters respond to losses in the same way. Prior to his most recent loss, Griffin had only lost twice. Both times he rebounded with a victory and Fight of the Night bonus in his very next fight. Griffin is known for being a hard-worker in the gym and his losses only motivate him.
Gomi lost five fights prior to his most recent loss to Florian. His first loss was to Hansen was followed by a horrendous demolotion at the hands of BJ Penn (again, no shame in losing to Penn, but the fight was expected to be very close). His next loss was a huge upset against Marcus Aurelio, followed by an uninspiring and unimpressive victory against virtually unknown David Baron, a fighter Pride "fed" to Gomi in an effort to rebuild his status. He was later upset by unknown Sergey Golyaev at Sengoku 6 and then lost his very next fight by submission to Kitoaka, despite being the heavy favorite. Gomi does not seem to bounce back well from losses; they seem to depress him rather than motivate him.
This trend is interesting, but the main reason that Griffin is favored is, of course, because he is the better fighter. His standup is more technical and diverse. His boxing is much crisper than Gomi's, as Gomi throws wide, looping punches that rely on power more than technique. He has some of the best leg-kicks in the lightweight division; this is something Gomi has not had to deal with very much in the past (he has never before faced an opponent as good at leg-kicks as Griffin) and it will likely prove difficult for him to deal with. He has excellent submission defense, which is something Gomi lacks -- four out of Gomi's six losses have come by submission (five out of seven if you include the Nick Diaz fight). Neither fighter has ever been knocked out. Griffin, who has had 10 fights and 27 rounds in the UFC, has never been knocked down or even rocked in any of them. His chin is rock-solid, which will help negate Gomi's feared punching power.
While I am confident that Griffin will win this fight and think that there is still a bit of value taking him at -290, I think there is much more value on a prop bet: Griffin to win by decision at +108. Gomi cannot win by three round decision. Wrestling is usually the most important factor when looking at who is likely to win decisions. Gomi will be at a significant wrestling disadvantage, and Griffin excels at winning decisions against such opponents. The only people who have defeated Griffin were all superior wrestlers: Edgar (now the UFC champion), Sherk, and rising star Evan Dunham. That is not the case here.
Gomi has excellent ground and pound but will not be able to use it against a fighter who has never been knocked down in the UFC and who can also stuff all of Gomi's takedown attempts. Griffin has good ground and pound and should be able to complete at least a few of his takedowns against Gomi, whose takedown defense is nothing to write home about. Couple this with Griffin's more diverse and more technical striking, and it is almost impossible for me to envision Gomi winning a decision (the odds of him not winning a decision are -810, compared to -148 for Griffin). Griffin excels at winning decisions. It's what he does. Five out of his seven UFC victories were won by decision. Here he faces an opponent whom he outclasses in all areas (except punching power) but who has only been stopped by submission. Griffin has good jiu-jitsu but it's better defensive jiu-jitsu; offensively, he's not close to the level of an Aurelio or a Florian or a Diaz, all fighters who have managed to submit Gomi.
There's another very interesting trend that I have noticed over the years. After a top (or near-top) contender loses in the UFC, they often come back to win by decision. At least, it happens more often than the average number of decisions would indicate. This is especially true for wrestlers. With Tyson Griffin specifically, this happened after both of his previous losses. It happened with Frankie Edgar after his only loss. Sean Sherk is coming off of a loss to Edgar right now, but after his previous two losses he came back to win by decision both times. I could go on and on, but you get the idea. The point is that the contender is both afraid of a second loss and, at the same time, eager to ensure a win as safely as possible. In this case, both fighters here are hard to finish, both are coming off of a loss and in need of a one, and one outclasses the other in almost every area besides finishing ability.
I believe that for every time Griffin would win this matchup, at least half would go to decision; realistically, I think it would be closer to three out of four. If I am right about this, then it follows that the Griffin by decision @ +108 prop has far more value than Griffin straight up @-290. If you'd feel safer with Griffin straight-up, I think that bet has an excellent chance and there's still some value in the current line. But, for the reasons above, the Griffin by decision prop looks much more lucrative. Good luck!
Easy to call after the fight is over
