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Cage Warriors 45 Review:
Cage Warriors 45 plays:
6.316 units on Chris Fields at +135 to win 8.527 units;
My biggest degen play of the night...Chris "The Killing" Fields! I've been a fan of this guy since I saw his fight with Tony Moran (Wolfslair fighter) back in 2010. Apart from being a fan of Fields, I also like to fade Mason as I just don't think he is very good. So I wouldn't tail on this as I could easily be over-rating Fields and under-rating Mason here! At last weeks Cage Warriors event I thought that most of the dogs where under-valued and put SBR points on all of them. 4 out of 5 ended up winning so was pretty p*ssed that I didnt have the balls to bet real dollar on them! So all four favourites will probably go and win tonight now that I've bet on three dogs! I also have a risk-free play on Peter Markusson in the boxing that will net me 9 units profit so hopefully have that as back-up in case these go
up!
Fields fights out of SGB in Dublin, the premier camp in Ireland. His main coach is the very well respected John Kavanagh, who happens to be the first ever Irish man to get a black-belt in BJJ. Despite starting out as a striker, Fields has evolved nicely over past 3 years in to a decent grappler as well thanks to working with Kavanagh and Matt Thornton. Kavanagh is one of the most respected coaches in Europe, and has been one of the main coaches along with Thornton involved in developing Gunnar Nelson's ground game (the best grappler in Europe and one of the biggest prospects in MMA). Thornton awarded Gunnar his blue and purple-belts, while he was awarded his brown belt from Kavanagh, and since then gone on to get his black belt from Renzo. Along with Owen Roddy who is another decent prospect in Ireland, he and Fields have developed decent ground games for professional Ireland/UK standards thanks to the work of John Kavanagh and now actually like to take fights to the ground rather than keep them standing.
Fields although not particularly bulky is still quite a big middleweight being 6ft 3 and cuts from 213-215lbs. As mentioned above, he comes from a striking background, but due to having Kavanagh as head coach and mentor, he has naturally become more grappling orientated, and tends to look to take the fight to the ground rather than keep it standing. However, his shot is very average. He'll often look for double legs but do it without any set-up and shoot from too far out without fully committing so is often stuffed easily. If he tries this he may struggle against the experienced Mason, and end up in a bad position, despite Mason being very flat-footed. Fields' takedowns from the clinch are were his strengths lie. He has solid body lock and inside trips which often lead to him ending up in side-mount or mount, or at worse in opponents half-guard. Even when struggling to get the takedowns from the clinch which he probably will early on against Mason, he has great perseverance. The fact that he has a decent height advantage in this one means that if he does get in the clinch with Mason he'll also be able to look for the plum and work knees to the liver and chin of Mason. Fields isnt one to settle for getting a takedown and lying in guard stealing rounds. He'll work ground and pound and look to be aggressive moving to full mount. His specialty is arm-bars, and also has proficient chokes such as d'arce and brabos. A great strength of Fields' is his ability to listen to Kavanagh in his corner and follow his instructions. He credits a lot of his wins due to Kavanagh telling him what to do during fights and altering game-plans.
Mason meanwhile trains at the Tsunami gym, Cambridge with UFC fighter John "The One" Maguire. He also has up and coming prospect Luke Barnatt who is 6’ 6” and a similar body-type to Fields so the combination of Barnatt and Maguire (who is a solid grappler for UK MMA standards) means that he'll be well prepared for what Fields brings. Mason clearly has a big experience advantage over Fields which is probably the main reason why he is favourite in this fight. He's fought the likes of Zaromskis, Hathaway, Paraisy, and most recently Brian Foster. Coincidentally though, he happened to get dominated in all of those fights! He most recent win was against 0-4 Miguel Bernard, who was also 0-2 as an amateur so hell knows why he has been getting fights against likes of Mason and Tim Radcliffe! Losing to likes of Zaromskis and Hathaway is nothing to be ashamed about, I highly doubt Chris Fields would have a chance against them either. But the Paraisy fight for me was very telling of Mason's abilities. In tht fight he looked downright awful! His takedown attempts were slow and predictable, his striking was stiff with no combinations, his footwork was non-existent - just completely flat-footed, and he ended up getting caught by a glancing knee and pretty much giving up in the third round. Both guys seemed to gas out by end of the second round despite the fact that they'd barely done anything in the first or second round! Maybe that was just an off day for Mason, he might come out in this fight looking completely different, but I'll take my chances against an underdog in Fields who is well-rounded, hungry, and gritty. Another thing about Mason is that he doesnt like taking punishment. Aside from the embarrassing finish to the Paraisy fight where it hardly looked like the knee connected, he also tapped to strikes from Hathaway after Hath slammed him Rory Mac style a few times and landed a couple of punches from his back. Finally, one more point to consider is that Fields trains MMA full-time, he spends his life in the gym, while as far as I'm aware Mason still works a full-time job as well as training. Something to consider, as it's difficult for a guy like Mason to evolve when he's only training a couple hours a day, and has to focus on other things while guys like Fields sacrificed a career in banking (also was an auctioneer) where he could of earned a lot more money to fully focus on MMA career.
3.158 units on Brents at +275 to win 8.685 units;
Lloret looked in good shape and obviously has a big advantage in BJJ. But Brents is experienced and powerful, and tough to finish. He may be able to keep this standing long enough to hurt Lloret. At +275 he's worth a stab as I think he should be closer to +200.
1.263 units on Wheeler at +200 to win 2.526 units.
Wheeler is another prospect I like a lot as he has solid grappling and aggressive striking, and is very tough. He recently got his purple-belt in BJJ and is very comfortable off his back so may be able to cause Reese some trouble of his back. Reese is a high-level NCAA wrestler so undoubtedly Wheeler will end up on his back at some point. Wheeler is adept at transitioning from different positions and will look for kneebars, heel-hooks, armbars and triangles straight away - he isnt the type to just let his opponent sit in his guard or get lay n prayed. He should also have a slight size advantage, especially in terms of height which I hope he'll use to his advantage standing in the clinch by using his knees which he has used to good effect in previous fights such as the Enty rematch. Reese being a ATT fighter and high level wrestler should be able to beat Wheeler who is still very raw and has holes in his game defensively, however I think Wheeler is worth a stab at +200, seeing as Reese is stepping in on short notice and fighting abroad and in differetn time zone for first time. This is particularly significant as he slowed down and tired considerably mid-way during the Bobby Greene fight, so doesnt bode well when you're stepping in on short notice and in a different time zone, unusual surroundings etc agaisnt a guy with an aggressive game, who is very durable and has reasonable cardio.
Risk: 10.737 units
Return: 26.686 units
Profit: +15.949 units
Great night, two biggest plays hit, 2 out of 3 dogs.
Record review:
Since Bellator 26 (August 26th 2010):
Bellator 26: +0.45 units
UFC 118: +6.11 units
MFC Retribution: -1.6 units
UFC Fight Night 22: +5.55 units
UFC 119: +1.5 units
WEC 51: +1.07 units
Cage Warriors 38: +11 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Noons 2: +2.417 units
UFC 120: -0.589 units
UFC 121: +9.011 units
WEC 52: -1.274 units
UFC 122: +17.355 units
Strikeforce Challengers 12: +0.865 units
UFC 123: +1.609 units
TUF 12 Finale: +9.556 units
K1 Grand Prix 2010 Review: +1.1 units
UFC 124: +5.135 units
WEC 53: +0.059 units
Sengoku Soul of Fight & Dream Dynamite: +1.354 units
UFC 125: +3.095 units
UFC Fight for the Troops 2: +3.961 units
UFC 126: +24.577 units
Strikeforce: Fedor vs Silva: +0.941 units
MFC 28 Supremacy: +8.594 units
BAMMA 5: +0.84 units
UFC 127: +10.945 units
UFC Live on Versus 3: +11.622 units
Strikeforce Columbus: -1.4 units
UFC 128: +22.131 units
Bellator 38: +4.875 units
UFC Fight Night 24: +44.283 units
Bellator 40: +2.325 units
Strikeforce Diaz vs Daley: -5.527 units
Bellator 41: -0.7 units
UFC 129: +77.484 units
(Not including risk-free arbs on record from UFC 130 onwards):
UFC 130: +45.077 units
TUF 13 Finale: -16.766 units
UFC 131: +17.688 units
Strikeforce: Overeem vs Werdum: +11.474 units
UFC Versus 4: +25.288 units
UFC 132: +1.783 units
Cage Warriors 43: +1.308 units
Strikeforce: Henderson vs Fedor: +3.274 units
UFC 133: -12.302 units
UFC Versus 5: -5.073 units
UFC 134 : -10.214 units
UFC Battle on the Bayou: +20.466 units
Titan Fighting Championships 19: -1.863 units
UFC 135: +53.938 units
UFC Versus 6: +4.021 units
UFC 136: -33.134 units
Bellator 55: -5.731 units
UFC 137: +4.337 units (+10.151 units inc’ arb)
UFC 138: +57.692 units
UFC on FOX: +5.087 units (+121.575 units inc' arbs)
UFC 139: +15.24 units (+28.647 units inc' arbs)
UFC 140: -15.065 units
UFC 141: +70.166 units (+78.399 units inc' arbs)
Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine: +0.664 units
UFC 142: +19.627 units (+44.333 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FX 1: +19.764 units (+24.264 units inc' arb)
UFC on FOX 2: +36.222 units (+38.571 units inc' arbs)
UFC 143: +78.321 units (+80.938 units inc' arbs)
UFC on FUEL 1: +12.958 units (+26.034 units inc' Dirty Bird Means arb)
Cage Warriors 45: +15.949 units
Total profit (excluding arbs): +698.919 unitsComment -
“On the King Mo situation, hearing from those close to him he’s in a bad situation. He got injured in the Larkin fight, had to get another ACL. There were complications and he ended up with a very bad staph infection that was life threatening, and nearly required amputation. Mo had to have 5 surgeries in 12 days before staph was gone. Currently he’s taking an iv directly into his heart every day for six weeks. Making the situation even worse, this was a recurrence of same injury within 18 months, so Zuffa/SF insurance won’t cover the ACL surgery or the subsequent follow-ups for the staph. Mo is/will have to come out of pocket on medical bills that may well reach into six figures.”Comment -
Malpractice suit?
Best of luck to Mo.Comment -
Kongo just shot up to -400 on sportbetComment -
-400 on Dimes as well. Hop on Hunt.Comment -
Kongo straight in parlays, Kongo by Decision, Kongo in Rd 3, Hunt by KO are the plays worth playingComment -
While Hunt has trained in Florida with American Top Team in the past, he prepared for this fight in his birthplace: Auckland, New Zealand. It's not as glamorous a fight camp, but he believes it's for the best. And he looks as fit as ever.
"The training over here is pretty crazy. I've got some good training back at home (in Australia) but it's hard to find partners around because everyone has to work and not many people fight full time. I know Jamie (Te Huna) has a lot of guys his weight he's training with and that's pretty good for him," said Hunt. "For me, everywhere else is too far to go. Miami is pretty far to go to acclimatize and then reacclimatize to Australian time because there's just not enough time. So I think it was a good move, but we'll see what happens in the fight."Comment -
I fully feel Hunt gets the KO in Japan. Other than the fact that he is a much more durable striker and packs a punch...it is just a gut feeling.Comment -
Fighter knocks himself out...
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is this for real????Comment -
yeee....it's BallinBladesComment -
lolComment -
How does Cantwell beat Fukuda? I don't see it happening. Playing Fukuda moderateComment -
You dont know what the odds are yet tho...what happens if Fukuda is -300 or something? Will u play him at any odds?
I think Fukuda takes a decision...Cantwell is very tough as he took some big shots against Massenzio and Diabate. I do think he is a better striker and grappler than he has shown in his last couple of fights, but then I dont think he offers more than Nick Ring offered, except maybe a slightly more refined submission game. I guess Cantwell could also argue that it was his fight fight at MW against Massenzio and that that effected maybeComment -
That video seems legit.Comment -
Cantwell seems to have more power than Ring. What price was Ring-Fukuda line?
Fukuda has made me good money.Comment -
Rashad fought with 3 broken ribs against Davis apparently...
“Going into that fight I wanted to make sure I negated Phil’s wrestling ability. He has a high level of wrestling and I thought I could out wrestle him so that’s what I was trying to do. That whole camp was a tough camp for me; about a week before the fight I broke three ribs sparring. I broke three ribs so I was like you know what I’m just gonna go out there and see what happens.”Comment -
Hey V do you know what Bookmaker's mma limits are?Comment -
First Chandella's hairy minge, now Arianny's manly ass...how will Gabe cope with this?!...
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Arianny vaughany Has a good ringComment -
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Any thoughts on Duane Ludwig Vs. Dan Hardy ?Comment
So basically play everything but Hunt by DEC. Got it. But what if Hunt taps Kongo out or judo throws him down against the cage and beats him against it?