Lots of action this week / weekend boys

[Educ8d Degener8]

Chance to cash in...

Bellator, MFC, KSW and (UFC 113)...

I'm liking:
Imada
Gouveia
Fioravanti


Huerta and Khalidov lines are too pricey for me.

If the line keeps moving, I may become intrigued by a play on Neer as a dog... but have some homework to do there. Not sure if time will permit.

BOL to all.

[JuicedUp]

Can't wait!!!

[RobbReport]

all look good.

[sundin4prez]

like all your plays except the possible neer one..... neer going to be taken down for three rounds and he's going to be able to do much from there...... easy descion for alvarez

[THEGREAT30]

Gl to all, good day

[Educ8d Degener8]

Plays so far:
0.50u Imada
0.25u Imada / Mitrione / Machida vs Shogun won't go 5 round distance

After viewing footage, I still like value in Imada, but perhaps not as much as when I originally saw the line. The only fight I could find for Vanier was his most recent bout with Duarte... Vanier looks like a real solid prospect -- nice wrestling background, trains with Greg Jackson. He showed good head movement and some nice striking vs Duarte; real nice left straight, in addition to a good gas tank. The one thing I was surprised with was that his wrestling didn't seem as advantageous as I presumed it might. It was decent, but really didn't show through until the 3rd round when Duarte gassed. In the early rounds, Duarte even managed a couple of takedowns himself, and had a couple close submission attempts (guillotine and kimura) when Vanier left some openings. In round 3 Vanier's stamina advantage seemed to take over and this is when he gnp'd the crap out of Duarte; however, even during that beating, Duarte again came close to a sub attempt (another guillotine).

With Imada, I don't think he'll gas in the manner Duarte did, and on the feet I don't see a clear advantage with either fighter. Imada has solid striking (both hands and feet) -- nothing that puts fear in his opponents, but solid fundamentally. He should be able to keep Vanier's striking neutralized as such as long as he keeps that left straight in check. So why the heck would I pick Imada at this point??? I'm thinking that if Duarte managed to get Vanier to the mat, that Imada may end up doing the same, and if he does, he can finish him (sub or TKO); and I recognize the likelihood that Vanier will put him on his back at some point, but think Imada's guard will be good enough to neutralize Vanier's gnp, or even pull off a sub. If Vanier plows through Imada's guard or gets him in a tough position against the cage though, that could spell problems for Toby.

Vanier does strike me as a pretty exciting prospect though with his wrestling background and unorthodox striking -- kinda a mini Jon Jones, but not nearly as polished. Yet.

So I'm going with the more experienced savvy veteran here. Hardly a 5 star heavy wager, but a small play. I recognize that Vanier could go into pure beast mode and pull out a W given his raw athleticism...

re: the parlay (pays ~ 5:1)
I like Mitrione for reasons I've highlighted in the Kimbo -120 post.
And simply put, I just don't think Machida and/or Shogun is gonna let this rematch go to the judges.

[Vaughany]

Cote/Belcher to go to decision: 2 units at +200
Stout/Stephens to go to decision: 2 units at +240
Mitrione: 2 units at Evens
Davis & Hague: 1 unit at Evens
Lawler & Salter: 1 unit at +190
Alvarez & Lewis: 0.5 units at +200

And just gonna sit back and enjoy Daley/Koscheck and Rua/Machida

[illmatick]

good writeup, small play on Vanier +139 for me

why do you like Gouveia and Fioravanti so much, I'm tempted to play both dogs in those matchups

has Fioravanti ever shot in for a takedown??

[Educ8d Degener8]

I'm staying away from Luigi... especially given the line moved to -280. Not worth it there, if anything might go a small play on Spratt if were betting, but I'm just making that a NP for me.

Still interested in Gouveia vs Jimmo. Hoping time permits me to review footage...

Bellator 17 Views

Alvarez (-325) vs Neer (+250): This is a NP for me. If I had bookmaker, I would've jumped all over Eddie at damn near EV, but not at -325 where it stands now. He should take it, but Neer is a crafty fighter. No-Play.

Huerta (-925) vs Curran (+550): No value in Huerta at -925. Bellator clearly wants a Huerta vs Alvarez fight down the line. Curran ruined the hype around Ricci, and if Huerta gets cute and decides to get reckless, there's a chance (albeit, slim), he'll take a nap on the canvas. Huerta had problems with Hinton's beast strength in the opening round, but shouldn't have that problem with Curran. Expect a Huerta W here. No-Play.

Imada (-120) vs Vanier (-110): see above. Small play on Imada. And certainly no shame in making a play on Vanier, especially if you bought in when he was a dog line. Kid has raw talent for sure.

Konrad (-1235) vs Bennett (+675): I don't even have to explain why this is No-Play. Without having enough fight footage on either guy, one would expect Bellator is "feeding" Bennett to Konrad (highly decorated NCAA wrestler, trains with Lesnar), but there's no way I'm touching those odds. Those odds are for Overeem vs cans... No-Play.

Although I've only got action on one fight, I'm stoked for this event in general. BOL to all.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Well, got the Imada pick right...

And is it me or are Bellator lines waaaay off on heavy favorites (Ricci, Huerta, Konrad)? They tend to reflect the perception / hype of a fighter (training team) more so than actual skill level. Konrad hardly looked like a -1700 fav, and Huerta at -975 c'mon. Of course this happens everyday at the books, but it seems overdone with the Bellator favs...

Alvarez looked solid -- at this point, I foresee him rematching Imada and winning once again.

Konrad has a lot of work to do on his skill set and gas tank. He gassed after one round, and as a result couldn't even gain an advantage with his wrestling in the final two rounds against a 1-0 Charles Bennett. Konrad looked like a sloppy version of his training buddy Chris Tuchscherer. And Chris Tuchscherer looks like a sloppy version of their training buddy Brock Lesnar... ;p So I think we need to derail the Konrad hype train a lil bit for now...

As for the MFC...

I'm pulling back at the moment. No plays currently. Watched some Jimmo and Gouveia footage and quite frankly, I don't have a high confidence in predicting how that fight will play out. So I'm not going for Gouveia at +260. Not a lot of value there, imho. Jimmo is 5-0 in his last 5 against opponents with a combined winning % of 57 percent; meanwhile Gouveia is 2-3 in his last 5 against opponents with a combined winning % of 72 percent and he did face a much higher level caliber of opponents -- Marquardt, Belcher, JMac, Ryan Jensen, Reljic. But it looks like I'm gonna stay away from this one. If Gouveia gets it to the ground, he takes it though...

I'm not a Thales Leites fan, but don't think I have enough confidence in Jesse Taylor to bite on +220. 4 of Taylor's 5 losses are via sub, so if he doesn't KO Leites on the feet, he could be in trouble; and his stand up doesn't impress me enough to think he'll do so.

Will update if I make any plays...

Update: Watched some more tape... I think I was letting my previous disdain for Leites block my thought. After watching more tape, I think he'll get Taylor. And watched some more tape on Jimmo, and I don't think he has a superior edge to Gouveia, so gotta go with Gouveia there; just hope it doesn't go to the hometown judges though... so I'm adding a chalk parlay for 0.5u... just a small play to keep the broadcast interesting.

0.5u Leites / Gouveia

[Educ8d Degener8]

After all was said and done (Bellator 17, MFC 25, UFC 113), ended up +2.6 units.

After a frigid streak there, back on my game after Aldo vs Faber and this past weekend...

I'm eagerly awaiting the opening line for Joe Warren vs Georgi at Bellator 18. Likely will not touch Lombard vs Filho with a 10 foot pole. Filho is too great of a wildcard for me to cap these days.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Strikeforce Heavy Artillery Views

Overeem (-240) vs Rogers (+200): Putting Rogers in a small parlay here with Villasenor. Yeah. I just wrote that. My feel for this fight is in the Heavy Artillery thread... Line is 'about right' imo. Overeem with the better toolset and more ways to finish, but he hasn't fought a legit mma HW in, well, ever. Rogers seems like a motivated fighter. The thing I don't like about betting on Rogers is that I'm counting on a gnp or TKO. I don't expect he'll catch Overeem standing. I really really wish there was a prop for "Fight does not go to decision" with this one, but 5dimes isn't offering it. Rogers in low risk, high reward parlay with Villasenor.

Arlovski (-175) vs Silva (+155): No-play for me. I'm a fan of Arlovski, but wouldn't lay it on this line until I see him back in form. If I had to bet this, I'd probably go for Silva at these odds. No-play.

Randleman (+365) vs Gracie (-460): No-play for me. I have zero interest in this fight. Only logical play would be Gracie in a parlay, I suppose. No-play.

Beerbohm (+125) vs Ribeiro (-135): Going with Fancy Pants here. Both fighters stand up is pretty average, so I expect that to be neutralized. I look for Beerbohm to go for takedowns per usual and try to finish via gnp. Ribeiro is pretty slick though, so Fancy Pants will have to defend subs and sweeps from Shaolin. That being said, I see value in Fancy Pants here as I could see him winning via decision (if he goes a boring wrestling strategy), or gnp. I give the sub advantage to Ribeiro, but overall I like the value in Fancy Pants. Small play on Beerbohm.

Jacare (-550) vs Villasenor (+425): I'm a huuuge Jacare fan, but I'm fading simply due to the line. Villasenor is a cagey vet and has a good camp so I expect a closer fight than the line indicates. Yes, Jacare's striking has improved and we know his ground game is sick, but I can't see how -550 is warranted here. There's a shot at Villasenor getting a KO/TKO/decision here worth the bet imho... and I'm {shutter} pairing it with my Rogers bet in a parlay... Villasenor in low risk, high reward parlay with Rogers.

Britt (+125) vs Feijao (-155): Taking Britt here. Again, I just like the value here. This one is not going to the cards imo. So how does it end -- let's rule out subs; although part of me is wondering if Feijao may have been working his sub game for this fight and we might see his first true sub victory... We're gonna see a KO or TKO (I'm thinking TKO). Although I do believe Feijao has a technical striking advantage, I think it's somewhat offset by Britt's size and strength, so I'm playing the value in the Britt line here. Feijao might surprise me with a striking clinic / clinchwork, but I'm rolling with the Juggernaut. Small play on Britt.

Shine Fights III... We're not done folks!!!

I'm tired of typing, so I'll keep these short...

Going with a tiny tiny parlay on Din -700 / Ferreira -195 / Azeredo -610. Purely for shits n giggles. I've seen some smart folks on Patterson, but I'm taking Ferreira here. Just a tiny parlay. I think the line on Azeredo is too high, but I did it anyway... 1/8 unit...

I'm interested in the Hawn vs Estima fight, but not betting it. Hawn likes the takedowns, but if he puts Estima down and jumps into his guard the he's asking to get sub'd.

Strikeforce Heavy Artillery / Shine Fights III wagers... small plays, taking the doggies in SF, just gonna enjoy the action... though I wish there were prop bets for Overeem vs Rogers and Feijao vs Britt

Risking / To Win / Bet
0.50u / 7.25u / Rogers, Villasenor parlay
0.50u / 0.63u / Beerbohm
0.50u / 0.63u / Britt
0.13u / 0.13u / Din Thomas, Ferreira, Azeredo parlay


BOL all.
ED

[Vaughany]

Nice underdog picks....Ive just got a small play on Britt but wudnt be surprised to see Beerbomb and Rogers get wins.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Well, netted a 0.01u gain this past weekend... so I broke even

Wins
+0.38u Mike Kyle (KOTC Friday - see KOTC thread)
+0.63u Beerbohm

Loss
-0.50u Superdog parlay (Rogers, Villasenor)
-0.50u Britt

Cancelled
Shine parlay

Things coulda been worse, as Beerbohm's win was a SD and Mike Kyle looked pretty bad in his win over Tony Lopez. Britt let me down a bit, as he was content getting clinched up against the cage after he pushed the action standing initially; then Feijao got him nice... I still feel the Villasenor play was the right side of that bet with those odds --> a -500 Favorite (Jacare) should finish a fight... I got played by Rogers though. My technical view of the fight was for Overeem, but my gut was thinking Rogers... and I really wish 5dimes were offering prop bets for the two I mentioned (Overeem - Rogers and Britt - Feijao), as both would've cashed had they been available.


Bellator 19 and Strikeforce Challengers upcoming this week... a few early leans but waiting for the lines.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Betting 0.25u to win 1.06u Ryan Thomas (+425) vs. Ben Askren, Bellator 19.

Couldn't pass up the value there.

[jin2daj]

i like ryan thomas too, though i think the odds of him winning are still slim

[Educ8d Degener8]

i like ryan thomas too, though i think the odds of him winning are still slim

I agree, but the current odds suggest an 86% probability of victory for Askren, and I feel that's off here. He didn't dominate Thomas in the little preview we saw of them earlier -- Askren will clearly want to get this to the mat and work for a sub or a LnP decision, but Thomas could pull a sub from his back as he almost did in the first meeting, or notch a KO if he can keep it standing (granted, keeping it standing will be the problem there); doubt he'd be able to reverse position to gain a TKO GnP victory though.

Simply going with a value play here -- tiny bet on a well traveled vet.

BOL all.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Parlay -- Hornbuckle / Wiuff Risking 0.50u to win 0.26u

[Educ8d Degener8]

What the heck... another massive 0.01u gain... well, i'll take breaking even for now. Kinda disappointed with Thomas' performance vs Askren. Askren still has work to due -- still feel I played the right side of this bet. A -550 fav (as Askren was) should wipe the floor with his opponent based on the odds... Will be interesting to see what the line is set at for Hornbuckle vs Askren.

On a good streak since Aldo-Faber, and altering my strategy a bit after taking hits at UFC 112 and Strikeforce Nashville.

Wins
+0.26u Hornbuckle / Wiuff

Losses
-0.25u Ryan Thomas

[vassman86]

Good luck!

[Sledge187]

Sexy time.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Flying a little blind here, as I had to travel out of town on a moment's notice for personal reasons... no time to review video...

But making 3 tiny plays on Bellator 20.

While Schlemenko is pretty fun to watch, he gets pretty wild out there, so if Hess avoids getting a vicious strike, he should grind out the victory via TKO or sub. Nothing wrong with playing Shlemenko if you like his puncher's chance given the odds. I'll play this one both ways. Slighted more risk with Hess, but a fun play with Shlemenko.

I'm gonna roll with Schambari as a dog. This is where I wish I had more time for footage review, but I remember being impressed with Schambari and he's been motivated to redeem his only loss to Baker. Baker is no joke standing, but I'm going with the dog here. Schambari via sub.

Gotta roll with Eddie Sanchez versus a guy fighting on late notice who isn't even a true HW.

And I'll take Rosa versus Villegas who is coming off a near 3 year layoff...

Risk / Bet
0.50u / Hess, Sanchez
0.13u / Schambari, Shlemenko (pays ~ 15:1)
0.13u / Hess, Sanchez, Rosa, Schambari

[Educ8d Degener8]

Well Bellator knocked me down 0.76u... a Schambari victory would've been nice, but hey submission guys get sub'd by strikers all the time ;p

So now on to a few UFC 114 and Dream plays

I'm gonna go with Rashad in the main event. Even though my gut has a feeling Rampage is gonna knock Rashad's head off (and I DO want to see Rampage vs Shogun), the fundamentals here make me lean to Rashad given the odds.

Now I know a lot of peeps on this board are on a Hathaway play, but I'm gonna have to go the other way fellas. I like Hathaway as he's got a good gas tank and will have a nice reach advantage in this one, but in watching his footage he seems a bit methodical (ie, slow). He does seem pretty well rounded -- his stand up is ok, and I liked the fact that he did go for some subs at times. But I just think Diego will be his toughest test to date. I know it's old footage - but Diego gave Fitch a good fight even in the grappling department... and I do think Hathaway will get Sanchez on his back at some point(s) in this one, but I like Diego's activity from his back (guard control, subs, sharp elbows (see Guida fight)) enough to believe he'll be able to minimize any damage from Hathaway. And if he can keep Hathaway's takedowns at bay, Diego should have the advantage standing. I can see why you guys like the potential in Hathaway, but I'm going the other way.

Also making a small play on Melvin Guillard. His ground game looked mighty improved in the Torres fight, and it seems they are spoon feeding him an opponent here. Lowe's previous opponents have some horrible records, and I mean horrible. I did manage to find some footage on Lowe and he did shoot a few times, but he doesn't appear to be a great wrestler, just a good athlete taking it to inferior opponents. Guillard should end this one striking.

For the Duffee vs Russow fight, I think there are a couple of ways to play it -- Duffee inside distance, Fight does not go distance, or even a Russow dog play. This fight is gonna end with a Duffee KO/TKO or a Russow sub. I think Duffee's line is a little inflated, but I like the kid. He looked good in his Assuerio Silva fight, avoiding subs from top control which will be required if he gets Russow down, and eventually pounded Silva's face out with some vicious GnP. Russow's only hope is a takedown and sub. His takedowns looked good in past fights but the guys he took down, well, they didn't seem the caliber of Duffee. I expect Duffee to work the clinch up against the cage to work a takedown and finish with GnP. Russow is a live dog though. So I'm playing the prop that the fight doesn't go to decision in parlays.

Risk / Bet
1.00u / Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision, Lesnar vs Carwin does not go to decision
0.50u / Rashad
0.50u / Diego Sanchez
0.50u / Melvin Guillard
0.50u / Kazushi Sakuraba (I'll roll with the Gracie Killer here)
0.50u / Minotoro, Nick Diaz, Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 114 and Dream 14 result in net loss of 0.01u ... The Minotoro fight kept me floating at zero... and I have high confidence in the pending parlay

Wins
0.50u wins 0.49u Rashad
0.50u wins 0.14u Melvin Guillard
0.50u wins 0.35u Minotoro, Nick Diaz, Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision

Losses
0.50u / Diego Sanchez (should've trusted my boys here)
0.50u / Kazushi Sakuraba (damnit)

Pending
1.00u to win 0.36u Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision, Lesnar vs Carwin does not go to decision

[Educ8d Degener8]

Bellator XXI

Risk / To Win / Bet

1.00u / 0.91u / Imada

[Eccocide]

On it as well. Gl tonight.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Well, after getting jobbed by that Imada decision at Bellator, IT'S TIME {said in Bruce Buffer voice} for UFC 115...

Looks like a good card of even matches -- I mean, I can't remember a card with as narrow odds as this...

In the main event, I hate to follow popular opinion, but I see Franklin edging out a UD here. I think he could end it via TKO/KO (watch out for knees Chuck), but I expect a "safe" strategy from him, even though he implied he was gonna bring the fight on the Countdown show... Expecting to be the recipient of a multitude of leg kicks, I'm actually expecting Liddell to attempt takedowns in this one. The thing is -- Matt Hamill tried the same strategy and was only successful on one TD attempt against Franklin. I can't imagine Liddell having more explosive takedowns than a young Hamill at this point in his career. But if Liddell manages to get Franklin in a compromised situation on the floor for GnP or a sub {gasp, shock, awe}, then more power to him, and the big right is always looming... So I'm making a small play on Franklin. Few reasons why: I'm kinda rooting for Liddell upset (via sub just to f*ck with peoples' heads), Liddell coming off a 14 month layoff, Franklin coming off hernia surgery in January.

In the co-main, I'll keep it simple... I'm going with the young lion here. Cro Cop has looked flat as sh*t lately, and Barry's striking is explosive. The thing with Barry is that he doesn't have any wins against any real impressive opponents. He has had impressive fights, yes, but he hasn't exactly been tested by a top notch guy, or even mid tier some might argue. So for that reason, I can see how someone might be on Cro Cop's side here, as Barry doesn't have the size to cage grind him, and Cro Cop has been through the fire a few times. But I'm just going with my eyes here, and siding with Barry.

For the Kampmann vs Thiago fight, I'm laying off except for a Kampmann bit in a parlay. I'm actually a big Thiago fan, but see some value in the Kampmann line where I had to make a play.

Taking Rothwell as well vs Yvel. Have it in some parlays, although I'm second guessing myself a bit on that leg of the parlay. Thinking of hedging with a play on Yvel...

Condit vs MacDonald -- Not touching this one as far as a winner goes. But looking forward to it as I expect a war, so am making a play for it to be FOTN.

No plays at this time for the prelims -- I considered a small play on Dunham as this might be his coming out party if he can handle Griffin; Dunham's size / reach / ground control might pose problems for Griffin, but Tyson is a gamer, so I'm still on the fence.

Only undercard play is actually my largest bet. Taking Mario Miranda over Loiseau. Reiterating what I mentioned in another thread, I'm looking for him to keep this one on the mat and grind out a UD. Might get an opportunity to win via sub or GnP, but Loiseau is really tough guy to finish. The risk here is that Miranda decides to go after a FOTN bonus and engages in a stand up war with Loiseau, in which case, he could get KTFO'd...

Still debating on plays with Yvel and Dunham, and may lay more on Barry and Franklin, but as of now, this is what I have:

UFC 115
Risk / To Win / Bet
1.00u / 0.41u / Mario Miranda
0.50u / 0.45u / Rich Franklin
0.50u / 0.33u / Patrick Barry
0.50u / 1.95u / Franklin, Barry, Rothwell
0.25u / 1.00u / Condit vs MacDonald FOTN
0.25u / 9.78u / Franklin by decision, Barry, Rothwell, Kampmann

Pending
1.00u to win 0.36u Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision, Lesnar vs Carwin does not go to decision

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 115 nets +0.61u... Barry let me down and prevented a better gain unfortunately, but I'll take it.

Wins
0.41u / Mario Miranda
0.45u / Rich Franklin
1.00u / Condit vs MacDonald FOTN

Losses
0.50u / Patrick Barry
0.50u / Franklin, Barry, Rothwell
0.25u / Franklin by decision, Barry, Rothwell, Kampmann

Pending
1.00u to win 0.36u Duffee vs Russow does not go to decision, Lesnar vs Carwin does not go to decision

[Educ8d Degener8]

Strikeforce L.A.

Shot-in-the-Dark Pi$$ Away Parlay:

Risking 0.13u to win 7.78u -- Babalu, Santos, Kennedy, Heun.

Here's my technical analysis: The gambling gods owe me one ;p If Heun can run the first leg here, anything can happen as the other 3 fights are damn near pick 'ems imo -- I love Zaromskis but see no value in him at -260. Or this play could end up 0/4.

[JuicedUp]

GL

[Educ8d Degener8]

3 for 4... Damnit, wish Heun could've sunk in a sub in that first round. Ah well, I continue to be unimpressed with Noons...

Although this event did give me a new strategy I'm gonna investigate...


Gonna keep an eye out for the Sengoku lines...

[Educ8d Degener8]

TUF / SRC plays

1.00u Aaron Simpson
0.50u Aaron Simpson / Marlon Sandro

[Educ8d Degener8]

UFC 116 plays as of now... few more in the works...

1.00u Daniel Roberts (-170)
1.00u George Sotiropoulos (-195)
0.13u Lesnar wins by submission (+950) --> I have this funny vision of an arm triangle from mount...
1.00u Duffee vs Russow does not go 3 round distance / Lesnar vs Carwin does not go 3 round distance



I'm waffling back and forth on Lesnar -- I fell into the camp that thinks if he's healthy, that line is a steal... but reviewing some tape last night has taken a bit of my buzz off...

Need to review their first meeting but I tend to like Bonnar as a dog at the moment; and possibly, Tuchsherer.

Planning to stay away from Reljic vs Grove, Leben vs Sexyama, and Brown vs Lytle. Only consideration might be Brown by decision prop, and a tiny play on Sexyama maybe.

[Eccocide]

Like what you got there. I will most likely be making a play on Roberts, in some sort of parlay. I also lean Lesnar and am just waiting for the line to bottom out. I'm thinking it may swing more towards Lesnar after the weigh-ins tonight so If I'm going to play him its got to be before then.

I was planning on betting Sotiropolous until the lines came out. I had capped the price to be -145 to -160, anything above that was too steep for me. GL this weekend!

[Chairib]

Brown vs Lytle is going to be interesting