How deep is your knowledge of MMA?

[bookie]

This survey is for anyone who has ever made an offshore bet on MMA.

A guy has asked me to check into developing an information site for MMA bettors. I'm having arguments with them about how much guys already know, and would really appreciate it if ya'll would take a poll.

I know posters aren't necessarily typical, but I'm interested in how much you break down a fight before making a play. I had to make up questions to fill in 1-5, but basically I just want to know what handicapping means to you.

If anybody is interested in the site PM me and I'd be glad to tell you more.

[MickChunky]

It's kind of a cross between 3 I read a lot and listen to shows and have a pretty clear idea of the fight issues before betting. I listen to the Sherdog network everyday at work, I read mmmajunkie.com and watch kenny and Bas on Fri nights. But 4 "I pretty much know all the fighters histories, styles, and the holes in their games by heart. " is usually true too, I know more than the average joe, I know if a guy is a striker/wrestler/bjj fighter, but I don't look that far into each matchup...especially undercards. I'm a huge fan, but I don't bet that much on MMA. I usually go off of feel, maybe look at the weigh ins, but I fall into the trap of most people and bet with my heart, instead of my head. It's easy to do that with MMA, fall in love with a certain guys style/record and start to believe he can win every fight.

[illmatick]

this is bullshit... Fuk off GUY!!!

[GunShard]

I watch that UFC video bloging show on SpikeTV showing how the fighters train, where they train, how they feel. etc..

I win everytime I watch that.

[bookie]

this is bullshit... Fuk off GUY!!!

littleogre why the hostility? It's not the smartest post ever, but I'm just trying to get some information and some people are interested in talking.

[36mafia]

what separates mma handicapping from any other sport

[NOLA42]

I watch that UFC video bloging show on SpikeTV showing how the fighters train, where they train, how they feel. etc..

I win everytime I watch that.

Are you being sarcastic and making fun of how these videos make each fight/fighter look about 10 times better than they really are? Or are you being serious?

[bookie]

what separates mma handicapping from any other sport

For one thing MMA is a new sport and the information sources, while plentiful, aren't as developed...and "sports bettors" will bet on baseball, football, and basketball, my idea is (which might be wrong so I'm trying to test it) is that MMA bettors tend to be more focused on just their sport.

[playa420]

Before I bet on fights I usually watch 3-5 fights of each guy to get a good feel for their strengths and weakness's. I also follow alot of the mma blogs, and watch shows like inside mma and mma live.

[36mafia]

For one thing MMA is a new sport and the information sources, while plentiful, aren't as developed...and "sports bettors" will bet on baseball, football, and basketball, my idea is (which might be wrong so I'm trying to test it) is that MMA bettors tend to be more focused on just their sport.

i like your assumption on this. all sports have traits that will attract or deter a certain demographic. handicapping the "classic" sports you mentioned (bases, football, bball...etc) rely on statistics, achievement, and numbers. with the exception of stoppages by the fighter, mma or combat sports in general are determined by judges and not a point system.

team sports with achievement/point system VS combat sport with judges
different strokes for different folks i guess

[bookie]

i like your assumption on this. all sports have traits that will attract or deter a certain demographic. handicapping the "classic" sports you mentioned (bases, football, bball...etc) rely on statistics, achievement, and numbers. with the exception of stoppages by the fighter, mma or combat sports in general are determined by judges and not a point system.

team sports with achievement/point system VS combat sport with judges
different strokes for different folks i guess

Yeah...it's that difference that I'm trying to get a handle on...I like watching MMA, but have absolutely no mind for it, so it's really helpful to me to hear from guys what they do before they bet---although guys participating in an MMA subforum may not be representative.

But anyway, thanks to everyone who participated...and I will keep looking at this thread for more responses.

[Gee]

There was a time when I would have fit in the last category. Now fights are a lot harder to pick and I simply just don't have the time to follow it like it once did (when I was at Uni). I followed it pretty intensely during the old Pride and Pride Bushido days... some simply amazing fights and fight cards.

still love it, just don't have the time..

[knownone]

Being a successful MMA handicapper is much more than just knowing the fighters and being organized.
You need to learn MMA as a whole take some MMA classes learn the sport from the inside out; Talk with fighters amateur or pro get to know the scoring systems... Ignore the media, question hype bet on facts not assumptions and most importantly follow a strategy.

[bookie]

Being a successful MMA handicapper is much more than just knowing the fighters and being organized. You need to learn MMA as a whole take some MMA classes learn the sport from the inside out.

I think you're right that MMA bettors tend to know their sport on the level of experience, often having wrestled in high school and still being involved in some version of a combat sport.

What I'm trying to figure out is, given their inside-out kind of knowledge, what kind of site or forum would be interesting to these guys? (I don't pretend I'm one of them, that's why I'm looking to talk to ya'll.)

[westerner]

Being a successful MMA handicapper is much more than just knowing the fighters and being organized.
You need to learn MMA as a whole take some MMA classes learn the sport from the inside out; Talk with fighters amateur or pro get to know the scoring systems... Ignore the media, question hype bet on facts not assumptions and most importantly follow a strategy.

Sooo true, and its not good to see someone win by armbar and then take them on the ground against some guy who's been tapped before on the assumption he has a better ground game. If guys are strong enough they can power out of subs for instance, they dont really need the technique sometimes. Also, there are a lot of guys that maybe have a sick armbar but their gaurd isn't very, or guys that have good takedowns but can't defend. Another example of a thing thats only in MMA is when you see a guy have lots of gas on the ground but burns out when he's gotta exchange for long periods, or a guy who can exchange and stay fresh for a whole fight but gasses after 1 round of mostly clinching. Its cuz of how guys train that their body gets used to keeping this or that breathing rhythm, so if they do lots of striking in camp they will be sharper and have more stamina there.

One of the clearest examples of people betting on assumptions and not fact is the Machida x Shogun rematch. During their camps, Shogun was adding wrinkles to turn the match up even more in his favour, after he already established a succesful strategy. For Machida, he had to work diligently just to figure out a response to Shogun's strategy in the first fight. In sports coaches always taking about "playing our game" or "getting the other team to play our style of game". That fight basically illustrates why those cliches exist, because if you gain advantage you want to run with it and keep the initiative. Shogun ended up adding the wrinkle of punching counter counters to Machida's leg kick counter punches. The same situation, and punch landed in the midst of the 1st fight even, but people still said "Machida will make the necessary adjustments". What adjustments? Quit Karate and take a different stance just for Shogun? Was he gonna learn freestyle wrestling?

[westerner]

I think you're right that MMA bettors tend to know their sport on the level of experience, often having wrestled in high school and still being involved in some version of a combat sport. What I'm trying to figure out is, given their inside-out kind of knowledge, what kind of site or forum would be interesting to these guys? (I don't pretend I'm one of them, that's why I'm looking to talk to ya'll.)

its been about 6+ years and countless hours of my life learning about MMA, watching fights, reading interviews, learning about the schools, about the different styles and their fundamentals, and I took some classes in Judo (a great time, make sure you bring a strong back though!). MMA is a challenging sport to learn about because there aren't many people who are smart about it. Especially back when I got into it, there were NO game plans. Hell, there were a lot of huge mismatches. Even now a lot of fighters still don't watch tape, train specific situations, or even study their opponents at all. This sport isn't established like the stick and ball sports or boxing where there is a lineage of development, its still very much maturing. Just look at a guy like King Mo, he walks into MMA 2 years ago and is the 7th ranked 205 in the world. Thats like a Rugby MVP coming to the NFL and in 1 season makes the all-star reserves.