[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Yair Rodriguez vs Jeremy Stephens
Carla Esparza vs Alexa Grasso
Askar Askarov vs Brandon Moreno
Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo
Martin Bravo vs Steven Peterson

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Carlos Huachin vs Jose Quinonez
Kyle Nelson vs Marco Polo Reyes
Ariane Carnelossi vs Angela Hill
Tyson Nam vs Sergio Pettis
Paul Graig vs Vinicius Moreira
Bethe Correia vs Sijara Eubanks
Marcos Mariano vs Claudio Puelles

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Yair for this card but not planning to be too big on this card.

[Thrilla]

UFC Fight Night: Rodríguez vs. Stephens (also known as UFC Fight Night 159 or UFC on ESPN+ 17) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that is planned to take place on September 21, 2019 at Mexico City Arena in Mexico City, Mexico.^{[1][2][3][4][5][6]}

While not officially announced by the organization, the promotion was initially targeting a featherweight bout between former title challengers Brian Ortega and Chan Sung Jung to serve as the event headliner.^[7] However, promotion officials elected to go in another direction and a featherweight bout between The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America featherweight winner Yair Rodríguez and Jeremy Stephens has been slated as the main event.^[8]

A women's strawweight bout between Istela Nunes and Angela Hill was scheduled for the event. However, on August 12, 2019, it was reported that Nunes was removed from the card due to a failed drug test.^[9] She was replaced by Ariane Carnelossi.^[10]

Alex Perez was scheduled to face Sergio Pettis at the event. However, Perez pulled out of the bout on August 26 citing an injury,^[11] and he was replaced by Tyson Nam.^[12]

Marion Reneau was scheduled to face Irene Aldana at the event. However, Reneau pulled out of the bout on September 11 for undisclosed reasons.^[13] She was replaced by promotional newcomer Vanessa Melo.^[14]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fi...z_vs._Stephens

[JIBBBY]

Liking Yair for this card but not planning to be too big on this card.

Leaning that way myself, Yair is tough.. What do you think Yair by decision maybe? Stevens is a tough guy and generally pretty hard to finish..

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[UncleChael]

"Who da Fook is that guy?" - Conor McGregor

[Teem]

Back and forth on Yair/Stephens. Stephens always comes out to fight for my money. He wants that KO bonus himself. He's a fckin animal. I trust him more than I do Yair. Has Stephens been gassing in his recent fights? I can't remember.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Leaning that way myself, Yair is tough.. What do you think Yair by decision maybe? Stevens is a tough guy and generally pretty hard to finish..

Yes exactly.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Back and forth on Yair/Stephens. Stephens always comes out to fight for my money. He wants that KO bonus himself. He's a fckin animal. I trust him more than I do Yair. Has Stephens been gassing in his recent fights? I can't remember.

I don't think so but he does have the most decision losses in UFC history.

[HurlSweatPants]

Back and forth on Yair/Stephens. Stephens always comes out to fight for my money. He wants that KO bonus himself. He's a fckin animal. I trust him more than I do Yair. Has Stephens been gassing in his recent fights? I can't remember.

He took Rd. 3 against Zabit and tends to get better as the fight goes on. Aldo finished him early, and he finished both Choo and Emmet in Rd. 2 so he carries power past the 1st.

Not sure though about 5 rounder, this is his first go. Yair went a practical 5 w KZB and went 5 with Caceres. I dont think conditioning is a huge factor for either, but I would give an edge to Yair.

[Hugo de Naranja]

He took Rd. 3 against Zabit and tends to get better as the fight goes on. Aldo finished him early, and he finished both Choo and Emmet in Rd. 2 so he carries power past the 1st.

Not sure though about 5 rounder, this is his first go. Yair went a practical 5 w KZB and went 5 with Caceres. I dont think conditioning is a huge factor for either, but I would give an edge to Yair.

Elevation could be a factor here too. Yair has a lot more experience at elevation with several fights in Mexico and one in Denver.

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA PRELIM write ups -






125 lbs.: Sergio Pettis vs. Tyson Nam

Sergio Pettis (17-5) fought his way into Flyweight title contention with four consecutive victories, capped off by a decision over Brandon Moreno in “The Phenom’s” first-ever main event. He’s just 1-3 since that victory, though he did become the first man since 2009 to beat Joseph Benavidez in a non-title fight in that one victory.
He’s one inch shorter and nine years younger than Tyson Nam (16-9-1).
Hawaii’s Nam shocked the mixed martial arts (MMA) world back in 2012 with a one-punch knockout of Bellator champ Eduardo Dantas, only to lose his next four bouts. He’s found more success in his current run, which includes a draw with future The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor Yoni Sherbatov and a head kick knockout of former UFC title challenger Ali Bagautinov.
He steps in for the injured Alex Perez on little more than three weeks’ notice.
Pettis is fortunate that Perez had to withdraw. That’s because Nam, though a quality fighter, is nowhere near the stylistic nightmare the wrestling-heavy Perez was. “The Phenom’s” rock-solid striking fundamentals look like an excellent answer for the overly patient Nam, who has a habit of letting the striking stats get lopsided as he waits for a perfect countering opportunity.
Nam does have some real power when he bothers to swing and Pettis’ chin has failed him before, but Pettis is unlikely to give him the clear shots he needs to let his hands go. Expect Pettis to potshot and frustrate Nam, never really hurting him but racking up enough of a volume edge to take home a wide decision.
Prediction: Pettis via unanimous decision
Related
Rodriguez Vs Stephens Headlines UFC Mexico City


205 lbs.: Vinicius Moreira vs. Paul Craig

Vinicius Moreira (9-3) showed his toughness and grappling skill on “Contender Series: Brazil,” where he survived some early trouble to choke out Muay Thai specialist John Allan and earn himself a contract. Said toughness hasn’t quite held up in the Octagon, as “Mamute” suffered a pair of first-round knockout losses to Alonzo Menifield and Eryk Anders.
Neither he nor Paul Craig (11-4) have ever gone the distance, combining for 18 submission wins and two (technical) knockouts.
“Bearjew” followed up his claiming of the BAMMA Light Heavyweight title with a bonus-winning armbar of Henrique da Silva in his Octagon debut. He’s since gone 2-4, though he did pick up two more bonuses via comeback submissions of Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu.
He’ll give up one inch of height to his Brazilian foe.
This should be a loser-goes-home match — Moreira is way too slow and hittable to bring his grappling to bear, while Craig’s striking and wrestling have yet to catch up to his submissions. Both need highly favorable match ups to make any sort of run in the Octagon and I’m not sure even the top-heavy UFC Light Heavyweight division has enough potential victims.
This, however, is a highly favorable match up for “Mamute.” Craig’s striking is … existent, which already gives him the edge on the feet, but his willingness to pull guard and the ease with which he’s taken down bode ill. Moreira’s the far larger man and his top control is scarier than Craig’s bottom game; therefore, he muscles Craig to the mat, wraps up a submission, and sets himself up to get knocked the hell out by his next UFC foe.
Prediction: Moreira via first-round submission
Related
Highlights: Watch luchador Cain Velasquez leap off the top rope at AAA’s Invading NY


135 lbs.: Sijara Eubanks vs. Bethe Correia

Sijara Eubanks (4-3) defied a low ranking on TUF 26 to smash her way through the competition, only to pull out of the Finale because of issues with the weight cut. She went on to beat Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi, missing weight against the latter, then fell once again to Aspen Ladd in her “Fight of the Night”-winning return to 135 pounds.
Both of her pre-UFC professional wins came by ground-and-pound technical knockout.
It’s been four years since Bethe Correia’s (10-4-1) unsuccessful title bid against Ronda Rousey, and the Brazilian has fought just five times in that span. Her last three fights have seen her battle Marion Reneau to a draw, suffer a head kick knockout loss to Holly Holm in her second main event, and tap to an Irene Aldana armbar after ending a nearly two-year hiatus.
“The Pitbull” is one inch taller than Eubanks, but will give up three inches of reach.
Correia has won one (1) fight in the last five years, and that was a robbery against Jessica Eye. She did much better than I expected against Aldana last time out, but at 36 years old, I think we’re past the point of her being a threat in the division ... being a decent brawler isn’t enough in the modern UFC.
“Pitbull” doesn’t have enough power to slow down Eubanks’ pressure and she faces a considerable disparity in wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu, giving her few avenues of victories. Though I can see her possibly outlasting Eubanks if the latter doesn’t pace herself, there’s not enough going her way to bank on that hypothetical. Eubanks walks her down and racks up long stretches of top control for the win.
Prediction: Eubanks via unanimous decision
Related
Korean Zombie to Brian Ortega: ‘You Lie Too Much’


155 lbs.: Claudio Puelles vs. Marcos Mariano

Claudio Puelles (8-2), representing Team Chuck Liddell, won three bouts on TUF: “Latin America 3” before falling to Martin Bravo at the Finale. He entered his subsequent bout with Felipe Silva as a sizeable underdog, only to score an improbably comeback kneebar to earn “Performance of the Night.”
This will be his first fight in 16 months because of injury.
Marcos Mariano (6-5) — who opened his professional career 2-3 — won four of his next five before joining UFC in February. He debuted against the all-action Lando Vannata in Melbourne, tapping to a kimura late in the first round.
He stands three inches taller than Puelles and will have a four-inch reach advantage.
It really speaks to how much UFC loves Lando Vannata that they signed a guy for the express purpose of losing to the “Groovy” one. Mariano’s height is literally the only notable thing about him; otherwise, he’s an okay striker with no ground game to speak of.
Puelles is no world-beater himself, but he’s a very capable grappler with considerably more experience against competent opposition. Once he lands his first takedown, it’s only a matter of time. He sends Mariano back to the Brazilian circuit with a quick rear-naked choke.
Prediction: Puelles via first-round submission


135 lbs.: Jose Quinonez vs. Carlos Huachin

The runner-up on the inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” series, Jose Quinonez (7-3) rebounded from his debut loss to win four in a row and set up a clash with fellow prospect Nathaniel Wood last March. The step-up proved too much for “El Teco,” who tapped to a rear-naked choke midway through the second round.
This will be the first time since 2014 that he has competed twice in a calendar year.
Carlos Huachin (10-4-1) — riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak — answered the call when Raoni Barcelos lost his UFC 237 opponent in May. “El Perro Malo” started strong on the feet, but ultimately succumbed to the Brazilian’s ground-and-pound.
He has scored nine first-round finishes as a professional, eight of them via knockout.
It’s hard to get a bead on where exactly Quinonez stands in the Bantamweight division. That’s because as nice as a four-fight win streak looks on paper, none of the men he beat wound up with winning records in the Octagon. He looked badly outclassed against Wood, who’s essentially the only quality opponent we have to measure him against since “El Teco’s” loss to Alejandro Perez at TUF Finale.
Huachin is a serious threat on the feet who’s burdened with substandard takedown defense. Even with the aforementioned concerns I have about Quinonez, that wrestling deficiency is too juicy a target for me to pick against him. Regular top control carries him to a unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Quinonez via unanimous decision
Related
Rodriguez Vs Stephens Headlines UFC Mexico City


145 lbs.: Polo Reyes vs. Kyle Nelson

The 4-1 UFC start Polo Reyes (8-6) start saw him score three post-fight bonuses thanks to two first-round knockouts and a 2016 “Fight of the Year” candidate against Dong Hyun Ma. He has since suffered consecutive (technical) knockout losses to Damir Hadzovic and Drew Dober, prompting a drop to Featherweight for this bout.
All but two of his professional wins have come by form of knockout.
Kyle Nelson (12-3) stepped up in weight to challenge Diego Ferreira in his late-notice Octagon debut, wherein he managed to sting the Lightweight contender before suffering a (technical) knockout loss in the second. “The Monster” returned to 145 pounds against Matt Sayles, tapping to an arm triangle after spending a while attached to “Robo’s” back.
He’ll have one inch of height and three inches of reach on his foe.
I feel like a lot of fighters see dropping in weight as a panacea for whatever ails them. Reyes’ problem wasn’t being too small, it was his shoddy defense against both takedowns and strikes. Nelson’s fight with Sayles suggests he can exploit at least one of those, as he found considerable grappling success before running out of steam.
If he can do that to Sayles, he can do it to Reyes.
“El Toro’s” heinous punching power makes him a threat to anyone, and he could very well leverage his size advantage into some early sprawls. After watching him struggle with Hadzovic’s grappling, which has consistently failed the Bosnian in the Octagon, I can’t have faith in it. Nelson survives an early scare to take the back and either choke (or pound out) the Mexican slugger.
Prediction: Nelson via second-round submission
Related
Highlights: Watch luchador Cain Velasquez leap off the top rope at AAA’s Invading NY


115 lbs.: Angela Hill vs. Ariane Carnelossi

Angela Hill (9-7) went from unsuccessful TUF alum to Invicta champion after leaving the UFC in 2014, claiming and once defending the promotion’s Strawweight belt. She has gone 3-5 in her second Octagon run, most recently dropping a decision to the surging Xiaonan Yan at UFC 238.
“Overkill” stands an inch taller than Carnelossi at 5’3.”
Ariane Carnelossi (12-1) has not tasted defeat since her professional debut against future UFC competitor Amanda Ribas, finding success in multiple Brazilian promotions. She won a one-night tournament last November, then knocked out fellow once-beaten Ketlen Souza last May for her third finish in five fights.
“Sorriso” has knocked out eight professional opponents and submitted one other.
Carnelossi is powerful and entertaining, but she’s the sort of foe Hill really should be able to beat. “Overkill” is the better striking technician and ostensibly won’t have to worry about takedowns; plus, unlike the Yan and Cortney Casey fights, Hill won’t be facing height and reach disadvantages. Outside of Carnelossi’s power, Hill figures to hold the edge most everywhere.
That said, she’s underperformed in the past, and Carnelossi is dogged enough to potentially take a decision through volume and aggression. Without a physical disparity to work through, though, Hill figures to exploit Carnelossi’s limited footwork and take a decision behind her jab and movement.
Prediction: Hill via unanimous decision



Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 124-76-1

[bjpenn85]

Im okay with all of these, i think Eubanks potentially are worse than we believe and that this may end up being a split.

[frankieunits2685]

Should be an ok card! On a side note: I just bought and received my tickets for 244 at the Garden. 👍👍

[Demonata]

This card is impossible

[Demonata]

Only one i like is stephens. He's been training hard. I don't trust yair at all.

[HurlSweatPants]

Only one i like is stephens. He's been training hard. I don't trust yair at all.

So you trust Stephens b/c he's been training hard? And how are you aware of this, are you in his camp?

I would assume that both have been training hard...they are professionals in the top percentile of their sport.

[HurlSweatPants]

Im okay with all of these, i think Eubanks potentially are worse than we believe and that this may end up being a split.

Totally disagree here, think this is a one sided domination by Eubanks on the ground. But it is in Mexico, we shall see what shenanigans the judges pull this card.

[Teem]

https://www.mmamania.com/2019/9/19/2...exico-city-ufc

Damn, Stephens went all out for this one. Went to Mexico early, dropped 30k, Training with TFerg too. Alright I'm on Stephens ha.

[Demonata]

So you trust Stephens b/c he's been training hard? And how are you aware of this, are you in his camp?

I would assume that both have been training hard...they are professionals in the top percentile of their sport.

I trust stephens for more reasons than that you dumbass. Do you really think I could be in his camp?You are a genius.

[Demonata]

https://www.mmamania.com/2019/9/19/2...exico-city-ufc

Damn, Stephens went all out for this one. Went to Mexico early, dropped 30k, Training with TFerg too. Alright I'm on Stephens ha.

Yeah hurlsweatpants is an idiot and doesn't do research on what people say.

[bjpenn85]

Totally disagree here, think this is a one sided domination by Eubanks on the ground. But it is in Mexico, we shall see what shenanigans the judges pull this card.

Yeah i thought so also...pre tape i was about to go big on here, if the price was ok. Then i start watched tape and she looked waaaay worse than i could remember. Does that mean she would not run over beth? No. But it doest for me show that her lowest of low, isnt good. And that make me scared. Lets say she does not show up, she still win probably, but it may be a sweat.

[Thrilla]

Your hourly reminder: Henry Cejudo won a gold medal in the olympics!

[Enfuego]

How could anyone trust putting their hard earned money on Angela freaking Hill?

[PaperTrail07]

have to agree lol....

How could anyone trust putting their hard earned money on Angela freaking Hill?

[JIBBBY]

How could anyone trust putting their hard earned money on Angela freaking Hill?

Win or Loss she's a decision machine.. Her boxing is ok. She tries and is almost impossible to finish..

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Angela-Hill-148517

[Demonata]

Go suk a dik

[Thrilla]

Go suk a dik

Say this to my face when I'm shoving sharp objects in your body. Matter of time anyway

[Teem]

savage

[Teem]

I'm on Quinonez and Stephens. Parlayed Pettis with Quinonez. Not sure who else to play. Nelson, maybe since Reyes struggles like hell with TDD? Thoughts on Reyes/Nelson?

[PaperTrail07]

Card is difficult for me....is it just me ? LOL...

[Teem]

I feel really good about laying money down on Stephens. Everything I've read so far about him training with that psycho Ferguson 6 hours a day and Ferguson saying he was impressed by Stephens cardio leads me to believe he's gonna push Yair at a high pace. Stephens is gonna push forward 5 rounds. Stephens will show up tomorrow and fight for my money and I'll be happy win or lose. I trust him to fight his ass off.

[Baraldsson]

I feel really good about laying money down on Stephens. Everything I've read so far about him training with that psycho Ferguson 6 hours a day and Ferguson saying he was impressed by Stephens cardio leads me to believe he's gonna push Yair at a high pace. Stephens is gonna push forward 5 rounds. Stephens will show up tomorrow and fight for my money and I'll be happy win or lose. I trust him to fight his ass off.

If you can impress Ferguson with your cardio you must be doing something right. Cardio could prove crucial in this one.

[Baraldsson]

Card is difficult for me....is it just me ? LOL...

Definitely not just you. I've been struggling to get a solid read on most of these fights.

[PaperTrail07]

Crazy....thinking Reyes....Bravo....and Yair about as far as I can lean lol..

Definitely not just you. I've been struggling to get a solid read on most of these fights.