1. #71
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    Magny will not be able to pitter patter his way in like he has against most guys. Larkin will make him pay dearly. Magny was dropped by Gastelum. If/when Larkin connects Magny won't be able to deal with it very well. Magny also switches stances. I douby he will go to the southpaw stance against Larkin. Larkin will chew Magny up with the inside kick and body kick. Play the KO prop for Larkin.
    What about Larkin Scorecards = No Action and Magny decision?

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  2. #72
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    that is mma math at its very worst lol cmon benjamins youre better then this
    almost getting kod by hector lombard is nothing bad at all he has some of the biggest power in the entire ufc , plus he won so....
    the best win any of these guys has in the ufc is magnys win over kelvin gastelum who i think is top 5 at WW , larkins best win in the ufc would probably be over jorge masvidal in a split decision against a natural 55er

    either way not saying magny will starch larkin at all its a very very close fight id lean magny 55/45 at max aka if hes + odds ill take him , but these guys are evenly matched regardless i see a super close fight that goes all 3 , the over could have value possibly here as well
    Excellent points Fire. We should not use MMAmath as a rationale for bets. In fact, I often look for opportunities where MMAmath will give great betting opportunities, i.e. dogs in excellent matchups. One example was Joe Duffy vs. Dustin Poirier. Duffy finished Conor Mcgregor in 2010 via first round sub while "The Notorious" knocked out Poirier in 1 round at FW. Despite only having 2 UFC bouts against very low level competition, Duffy opened up as a moderate favorite and I hit Poirier (+200) for big. Since then, I've watched closely for similar opportunities.

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  3. #73
    CaptChaos145
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    I agree with FIRE. That mma Math was poor Benjamins (no offense.) Watch the Camozzi/Larkin fight at MW. Yes Camozzi is a southpaw but he is a solid stand up fighter with height (Camozzi & Magny are same height.) If/when Larkin hits Magny like he did Camozzi, Magny won't be able to handle it. Camozzi is more durable. Larkin craves the standup. He relishes it especially against a fighter that lacks power. I've warned you all. Bet at your own risk.

  4. #74
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    I agree with FIRE. That mma Math was poor Benjamins (no offense.) Watch the Camozzi/Larkin fight at MW. Yes Camozzi is a southpaw but he is a solid stand up fighter with height (Camozzi & Magny are same height.) If/when Larkin hits Magny like he did Camozzi, Magny won't be able to handle it. Camozzi is more durable. Larkin craves the standup. He relishes it especially against a fighter that lacks power. I've warned you all. Bet at your own risk.
    Doesn't Magny have a decent chin? I don't think he's been KO'ed before but he has definitely been rocked.

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  5. #75
    firekillex
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    All solid points , I agree Hugo I was on porier for that fight to great steal. Mma math never really works in general , styles make fights is the name of the game , that's why magny / Larkin is so good because they're both primary standup fighters with much different techniques / body types . This fight is nearly a toss up aka take the underdog money , my whole point was I hope magny is the dog here but well see when the lines come out , magny is the bigger name so he will prob be the favourite aka no play anyways on straight , i still like this fight to go all 3 rounds regardless , Larkin could Ko anybody but I like Magnys movement to much
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  6. #76
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    that is mma math at its very worst lol cmon benjamins youre better then this
    almost getting kod by hector lombard is nothing bad at all he has some of the biggest power in the entire ufc , plus he won so....
    the best win any of these guys has in the ufc is magnys win over kelvin gastelum who i think is top 5 at WW , larkins best win in the ufc would probably be over jorge masvidal in a split decision against a natural 55er

    either way not saying magny will starch larkin at all its a very very close fight id lean magny 55/45 at max aka if hes + odds ill take him , but these guys are evenly matched regardless i see a super close fight that goes all 3 , the over could have value possibly here as well
    I just gave a quick response, might do a deeper analysis later.

  7. #77
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    I just gave a quick response, might do a deeper analysis later.
    Haha all good bro, I won't dive into it for a bit probably until one week before the fight I hate diving into fights then it gets scrapped a few weeks before learned my lesson on that a few times. Just from the eye test and watching basically all there fights live that's my basic assessment . But ya mma math never works trust me on that one , certain styles and matchups are just better for certain people... plus in mma even the better man can lose on a given night , so much goes into a fight if you Zig where you should've zagged you could get clipped and knocked out, injuries, mind set, how you feel on that night so many factors you just gotta play the percentages if you want to be profitable , example I slightly lean magny but I know if Larkin comes out +130 or more I'm on him , doesn't matter who you like gotta play the odds
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  8. #78
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    Haha all good bro, I won't dive into it for a bit probably until one week before the fight I hate diving into fights then it gets scrapped a few weeks before learned my lesson on that a few times. Just from the eye test and watching basically all there fights live that's my basic assessment . But ya mma math never works trust me on that one , certain styles and matchups are just better for certain people... plus in mma even the better man can lose on a given night , so much goes into a fight if you Zig where you should've zagged you could get clipped and knocked out, injuries, mind set, how you feel on that night so many factors you just gotta play the percentages if you want to be profitable , example I slightly lean magny but I know if Larkin comes out +130 or more I'm on him , doesn't matter who you like gotta play the odds
    This is huge. Profitable capping is all about style match-ups and we're here to win money not just to bet on guys we like.
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  9. #79
    CaptChaos145
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    Magny is going to get starched. Watch their most recent fights. The MW's did not want to stand with The Monsoon.

  10. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    Magny is going to get starched. Watch their most recent fights. The MW's did not want to stand with The Monsoon.
    larkin went 1-4 at MW in the UFC thats nothing special at all, then hes beat 2 unranked WWs and beat a lightweight in a split decision ..... hes fought one top 15 WW and lost ( even though it was a super close fight , you couldve said he won ) i think hes a good fighter but i highly doubt he starches magny , he could for sure win but it would most likely be in a closely contested fight win or lose imo , but guess well see on the 20th, hopefully the line drops soon so can dive into it a bit deeper
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  11. #81
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    I agree with FIRE. That mma Math was poor Benjamins (no offense.) Watch the Camozzi/Larkin fight at MW. Yes Camozzi is a southpaw but he is a solid stand up fighter with height (Camozzi & Magny are same height.) If/when Larkin hits Magny like he did Camozzi, Magny won't be able to handle it. Camozzi is more durable. Larkin craves the standup. He relishes it especially against a fighter that lacks power. I've warned you all. Bet at your own risk.
    Still watching tape for this one. Any idea how Magny has dealt with leg kicks in the past?

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  12. #82
    CaptChaos145
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    Magny has never faced a quick, explosive, dynamic striker like The Monsoon. I don't see how Magny wins.

  13. #83
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    Magny has never faced a quick, explosive, dynamic striker like The Monsoon. I don't see how Magny wins.
    Playing the outside game and then clinch and grapple. He is relentless enough and has the cardio to follow such a gameplan. I would favour Larkin because i think he can avoid and make it a complete muay thai match, and then leg kicks and the power will make it very difficult and then probably wear Magny down a bit. But magny has habit of winning and defying the odds. But Larkin at + money will def feel tempting because Larking pretty much know he will win against any fighter in the div in a standup fight. It will be a test of Larkins fight iq first and foremost but he should win this fight. And magny gets clipped too often.

  14. #84
    CaptChaos145
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    Yeah BJ Ithink Magny will be very hesitant to engage once he gets kicked and punched a few times. Larkin can switch stances, be elusive, and attack like a sniper. He also has good TD defense. Watch his fights against bigger stronger wrestlers/grapplers st MW.

    IF Larkin opened his mouth more he'd have a lot more steam behind him but he's relatively quiet.

    Imp Magny loses to all the guys Larkin lost to in his most recent fights.

    Larkin will starch Magny.

  15. #85
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Is anyone willing to do a detailed breakdown on McGregor/Diaz? Maybe we could have a person or two write a breakdown for each side since it's such a huge fight.

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  16. #86
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Is anyone willing to do a detailed breakdown on McGregor/Diaz? Maybe we could have a person or two write a breakdown for each side since it's such a huge fight.
    Good idea, I'll do one for mcgregor side sometime in the week when I get time to watch some previous fight tape
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  17. #87
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    Good idea, I'll do one for mcgregor side sometime in the week when I get time to watch some previous fight tape
    Great. I don't think will have too much trouble getting someone to write the Diaz side since a lot of SBR cappers seem to be on him.

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  18. #88
    firekillex
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Great. I don't think will have too much trouble getting someone to write the Diaz side since a lot of SBR cappers seem to be on him.
    I honestly think it's a 50/50 fight imo , so my breakdown of Connor will be purely off what I see and how I think he can / would win the matchup . Will get around to it sometime this week for sure cheers Hugo I like your style
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  19. #89
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    I honestly think it's a 50/50 fight imo , so my breakdown of Connor will be purely off what I see and how I think he can / would win the matchup . Will get around to it sometime this week for sure cheers Hugo I like your style
    Thanks again. I appreciate the time and effort.

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  20. #90
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Gotta go with Olivera.. Pettis hasn't shown me much in recent fights to think he can beat Charles Olivera.. Pettis has lost his last 3 fights if I'm not mistaken now...
    Planning to be on Olivera if he is +money. The best hedge might be Pettis KO or Pettis Rd 1 since Olivera has been finished in the first 4 times in his 5 losses.

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  21. #91
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Planning to be on Olivera if he is +money. The best hedge might be Pettis KO or Pettis Rd 1 since Olivera has been finished in the first 4 times in his 5 losses.
    I think betting agianst Pettis is a pretty easy choice after seeing how bad he was against Barboza. Dropping a weight class isn't going to fix his fundamental errors. However, I would be worried about Olivera's health. What the hell happened in his last fight? Something in his throat got torn or something? How you can be sure that wouldn't happen again?

  22. #92
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rich Benjamins View Post
    I think betting agianst Pettis is a pretty easy choice after seeing how bad he was against Barboza. Dropping a weight class isn't going to fix his fundamental errors. However, I would be worried about Olivera's health. What the hell happened in his last fight? Something in his throat got torn or something? How you can be sure that wouldn't happen again?
    Yeah I'll have to look into that more. Freak injuries sometimes happen during fights and most guys seem to bounce back ok, i.e. Carlos Condit.

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  23. #93
    Rich Benjamins
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Yeah I'll have to look into that more. Freak injuries sometimes happen during fights and most guys seem to bounce back ok, i.e. Carlos Condit.
    Yea but Condit tore a ligament in his knee. That's a fairly normal injury in a fight and most contact sports. But something internal in Oliveira's throat being torn seems like something that isn't normal. I don't know, I haven't looked into it too deeply.

  24. #94
    CaptChaos145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Is anyone willing to do a detailed breakdown on McGregor/Diaz? Maybe we could have a person or two write a breakdown for each side since it's such a huge fight.
    The breakdown is simple... Mcgregor needs to clip and stop Nate or Nate will finish him. It's REALLY important to understand how easily Conor broke in that fight. He was doing very well, got stung, and FOLDED. Show me another top level fighter that folded that quick? Conor is not tough. Conor literally has a punchers chance.

    Nate has so much verbal ammunition and he is not using it.

    With that said... I listened to the UFC 202 media call yesterday. Conor is saying there will definitely be a rubber match if he wins. My gut cynical hunch is telling me Conor is just saying that hoping Nate gives in with this fight and loses. Conor is no dummy. IF Conor wins I doubt he gives Nate a 3rd fight. I hope Nate doesn't throw this fight hoping he will get a 3rd big payday.
    Last edited by CaptChaos145; 08-07-16 at 10:16 AM.

  25. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    The breakdown is simple... Mcgregor needs to clip and stop Nate or Nate will finish him. It's REALLY important to understand how easily Conor broke in that fight. He was doing very well, got stung, and FOLDED. Show me another top level fighter that folded that quick? Conor is not tough. Conor literally has a punchers chance.

    Nate has so much verbal ammunition and he is not using it.

    With that said... I listened to the UFC 202 media call yesterday. Conor is saying there will definitely be a rubber match if he wins. My gut cynical hunch is telling me Conor is just saying that hoping Nate gives in with this fight and loses. Conor is no dummy. IF Conor wins I doubt he gives Nate a 3rd fight. I hope Nate doesn't throw this fight hoping he will get a 3rd big payday.
    He actually could throw the fight. He got lucky anyway for being picked by the PPV king for his biggest fight purses ever. A trilogy could make him retire for good.

  26. #96
    Ty$
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    The breakdown is simple... Mcgregor needs to clip and stop Nate or Nate will finish him. It's REALLY important to understand how easily Conor broke in that fight. He was doing very well, got stung, and FOLDED. Show me another top level fighter that folded that quick? Conor is not tough. Conor literally has a punchers chance.

    Nate has so much verbal ammunition and he is not using it.

    With that said... I listened to the UFC 202 media call yesterday. Conor is saying there will definitely be a rubber match if he wins. My gut cynical hunch is telling me Conor is just saying that hoping Nate gives in with this fight and loses. Conor is no dummy. IF Conor wins I doubt he gives Nate a 3rd fight. I hope Nate doesn't throw this fight hoping he will get a 3rd big payday.
    Yes finally someone gets it. HEART. WILL TO WIN. Conor got broke down like a cheap shotgun. I think both Diaz bros have too much respect to throw a fight. IMO. I know $ talks.

  27. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ty$ View Post
    Yes finally someone gets it. HEART. WILL TO WIN. Conor got broke down like a cheap shotgun. I think both Diaz bros have too much respect to throw a fight. IMO. I know $ talks.
    That's what I'm hoping Ty but I'm a little nervous. I know it may sound crazy to a lot of people but it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I hope I'm totally off base.

    With that said Diaz all day. Too many people are believing the stuff that comes out if Conir's mouth.
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  28. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Planning to be on Olivera if he is +money. The best hedge might be Pettis KO or Pettis Rd 1 since Olivera has been finished in the first 4 times in his 5 losses.
    Not to nitpick, but one of those first round finishes was the strange injury against Max Holloway. The one to Cub was after he looked bad after missing weight also.

    For this fight, my first inclination is actually Pettis by decision. I don't think he has actually looked terrible lately (they've been terrible matchups for him), but he definitely has looked hesitant. I'm waiting to see the odds, but agree there may be value on Oliveira if he's a big enough dog.

  29. #99
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptChaos145 View Post
    That's what I'm hoping Ty but I'm a little nervous. I know it may sound crazy to a lot of people but it's not out of the realm of possibilities. I hope I'm totally off base.

    With that said Diaz all day. Too many people are believing the stuff that comes out if Conir's mouth.
    Here's an interesting breakdown by Firas Zahabi. He has a ton of knowledge about the sport and has some good insights despite often not making the correct prediction. You guys might want to give it a look/listen.

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  30. #100
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Here's an interesting breakdown by Firas Zahabi. He has a ton of knowledge about the sport and has some good insights despite often not making the correct prediction. You guys might want to give it a look/listen.
    Listened to this for a couple of days ago and man this guys give you some perspectives:

    - Claiming mcregors mentality is of a bully, therefor people like him and brock lesnar for instance folds under pressure when they themselves get bullied, isnt that a fantastic reflection?
    - Mcregors defensive skills on the mat resembles a guy that havent been put in difficult positions on the ground
    - Also claiming mcregor doesnt have bad cardio at all, only folded under pressure due to getting surprised, which was exactly what mcregor stated in interviews post fight.
    - He also favours Diaz, but said diaz cant get tagged like in round one, from round 2 and out its all diaz.
    - Last breakdown which was mark hunt vs lesnar said it was a 70% chance brock winning, i canceled my bet right away and cashed on lesnar. Isnt that sweet?


    Im though a little bit afraid we undervalue mcregors striking, we must not forget how easily he outpointed holloway on the feet + winning solidly over diaz in 7.5 minutes. If he doesnt fold, what happens then? Zahabi never touched upon these two crucial points, and im starting to feel a tad bit nervous about my diaz bet because of that. I do think though, when youre beating cerrone and basically most standing that you should be favoured against most guys, but mcregor cant disrupt diaz striking by constantly kicking diaz legs, not necessarily with leg kicks but with spinning kicks, side kicks etc. Can mcregor stop diaz flow from the start and then make diaz boxing not work as effective? So if he doesnt tire out, which he didnt in the max holloway fight...yes, what the fakk does happen then? Mcregor also appears very motivated, and motivation kills. He trains specific for diaz, bringing in guys, but can that really account for diaz boxing skills and natural endurance + experience? Or are we all deceived by mcregors marketability? This fight has so many unanswered questions im not sure betting on this matchup really is a good idea.

    I appreciate feedback on these points.
    Last edited by bjpenn85; 08-08-16 at 06:33 PM.

  31. #101
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    Listened to this for a couple of days ago and man this guys give you some perspectives:

    - Claiming mcregors mentality is of a bully, therefor people like him and brock lesnar for instance folds under pressure when they themselves get bullied, isnt that a fantastic reflection?
    - Mcregors defensive skills on the mat resembles a guy that havent been put in difficult positions on the ground
    - Also claiming mcregor doesnt have bad cardio at all, only folded under pressure due to getting surprised, which was exactly what mcregor stated in interviews post fight.
    - He also favours Diaz, but said diaz cant get tagged like in round one, from round 2 and out its all diaz.
    - Last breakdown which was mark hunt vs lesnar said it was a 70% chance brock winning, i canceled my bet right away and cashed on lesnar. Isnt that sweet?


    Im though a little bit afraid we undervalue mcregors striking, we must not forget how easily he outpointed holloway on the feet + winning solidly over diaz in 7.5 minutes. If he doesnt fold, what happens then? Zahabi never touched upon these two crucial points, and im starting to feel a tad bit nervous about my diaz bet because of that. I do think though, when youre beating cerrone and basically most standing that you should be favoured against most guys, but mcregor cant disrupt diaz striking by constantly kicking diaz legs, not necessarily with leg kicks but with spinning kicks, side kicks etc. Can mcregor stop diaz flow from the start and then make diaz boxing not work as effective? So if he doesnt tire out, which he didnt in the max holloway fight...yes, what the fakk does happen then? Mcregor also appears very motivated, and motivation kills. He trains specific for diaz, bringing in guys, but can that really account for diaz boxing skills and natural endurance + experience?

    I appreciate feedback on these points.
    Zahabi also picked Edgar confidently over Aldo and that obviously didn't turn out well. What I value about him is that he offers well-thought out perspectives coming from an expert background. McGregor is definitely live here so I'm not betting the house on Diaz. As far as rematches go, I think there's almost always value betting the guy in who won the first fight if he's the underdog in an immediate rematch.

    The way I see it, McGregor has to fight pretty differently than ever before if he wants to win this fight. His M.O. has always been to go out throwing bombs early and drop his opponent in the first or second round. I think this fight he will try to start more cautiously, but eventually get into that same rut of headhunting and trying to KO Diaz with one shot. McGregor does have an underestimated top game and decent wrestling so it wouldn't shock me to see him try to take Diaz down. Diaz' active guard off his back will lead him to constantly threaten submissions.
    Points Awarded:

    Ty$ gave Hugo de Naranja 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  32. #102
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Zahabi also picked Edgar confidently over Aldo and that obviously didn't turn out well. What I value about him is that he offers well-thought out perspectives coming from an expert background. McGregor is definitely live here so I'm not betting the house on Diaz. As far as rematches go, I think there's almost always value betting the guy in who won the first fight if he's the underdog in an immediate rematch.

    The way I see it, McGregor has to fight pretty differently than ever before if he wants to win this fight. His M.O. has always been to go out throwing bombs early and drop his opponent in the first or second round. I think this fight he will try to start more cautiously, but eventually get into that same rut of headhunting and trying to KO Diaz with one shot. McGregor does have an underestimated top game and decent wrestling so it wouldn't shock me to see him try to take Diaz down. Diaz' active guard off his back will lead him to constantly threaten submissions.
    True. At the same time he can steal rounds with wrestling and go max holloway on diaz ass. Not likely though, it is as you say, a bit difficult to change youre fighting style against diaz in a 5 round fight. But the adjusments are not all that. Just not head hunt as much and go for takedowns and disengage at the end of the rounds when taking diaz down. Its at least something to consider. Again Michael johnson, Cerrone, they werent close stading up for three rounds.they didnt just loose, they lost by a unanimous dec.

  33. #103
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    True. At the same time he can steal rounds with wrestling and go max holloway on diaz ass. Not likely though, it is as you say, a bit difficult to change youre fighting style against diaz in a 5 round fight. But the adjusments are not all that. Just not head hunt as much and go for takedowns and disengage at the end of the rounds when taking diaz down. Its at least something to consider. Again Michael johnson, Cerrone, they werent close stading up for three rounds.they didnt just loose, they lost by a unanimous dec.
    I favor Diaz in a 5-round standup battle against pretty much anyone in the UFC. His cardio, chin, and punching volume are peerless. McGregor could steal rounds with wrestling I guess but I think Diaz has a good chance at outstriking him if it goes the distance.

    A few bets to consider:
    Fight Starts Round 2 (-225)
    Over 2.5 Rounds (+105)
    Fight Goes Distance (+310)
    Diaz Unanimous Decision (+1400)

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  34. #104
    bjpenn85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I favor Diaz in a 5-round standup battle against pretty much anyone in the UFC. His cardio, chin, and punching volume are peerless. McGregor could steal rounds with wrestling I guess but I think Diaz has a good chance at outstriking him if it goes the distance.

    A few bets to consider:
    Fight Starts Round 2 (-225)
    Over 2.5 Rounds (+105)
    Fight Goes Distance (+310)
    Diaz Unanimous Decision (+1400)
    And diaz non existent checking of leg kicks, in a five round fight those leg kicks can rally pay off. He just cant check those. If mcregor fight smart thing can start to open up later. If i fought diaz i would target those legs all day and then put the pressure on in round 3. Easier to score points standing, easier to get diaz down. And it is possible to frustrate diaz, hes not invincible and without flaws. I just have a hard time see mcregor mix in a carlos condit/ ben henderson type of gameplan and then actually fulfilling this game plan without any screw ups.

  35. #105
    Hugo de Naranja
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjpenn85 View Post
    And diaz non existent checking of leg kicks, in a five round fight those leg kicks can rally pay off. He just cant check those. If mcregor fight smart thing can start to open up later. If i fought diaz i would target those legs all day and then put the pressure on in round 3. Easier to score points standing, easier to get diaz down. And it is possible to frustrate diaz, hes not invincible and without flaws. I just have a hard time see mcregor mix in a carlos condit/ ben henderson type of gameplan and then actually fulfilling this game plan without any screw ups.
    Agreed. If leg kicks had been a major part of McGregor's game up to now, I would be more wary. To this point, less than 10% of his strikes are targeted to opponents' legs. Of course that could change in this fight but I think that's pretty unlikely.

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