UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje (May 09, 2020)

[Thrilla]

[turbozed]

i don't know it is bizarre. Cerrone was blatant even Rogan said it and he loves Tony. In that fight it was only a matter of time Tony would have taken Cerrone out or he would have won an easy three round decision. His fight with Barbosa was close and i thought he was losing to Dos Angos when that poke turned the whole fight around. You watch Tony more than me do you remember other fights like this on his way up the ranks. I still love watching him fight. I thought it was bizarre recently he said he never spars. Than i see him say he sparred for this fight. He better have cause he leaves that chin up way to much and is known to get hit and Gaethje can crack a lot better than the last few guys he fought.

Tony broke Cerrone's nose early in the 2nd round. The late punch contributed to Cowboy's damage, but Cowboy had nothing for Tony at that point in the fight.

Tony was starting to outstrike RDA before the eyepoke already.

The Barboza upkick IMO, wasn't a huge factor in the fight. Barboza obviously doesn't like pressure and it was already starting to overwhelm him and was only going to get worse as time goes by.

Gaethje KO'ing Ferguson is obvious one of the main possibilities of the fight, but people are overestimating it's likelihood since Gaethje has a string of 3 KO's and because we've seen Tony dropped a few times in 15 UFC fights. UFC average KO rate is 26% at lightweight. If you want to get Justin KO above 50%, you'd have to say that he's become such a crazy finisher, that he's 4 times as likely to KO a guy who's never been finished in 15 UFC fights than average. Tony's age will come into play, of course, but the base rates say indicate that it's more likely to get to later rounds where Tony will have the advantage.

At the same time, you can make caveats on Gaethje's last 3 KO's. Barboza was eye poked right before the KO, and Cowboy and Vick have been on a streak of getting kO'd, both looking terrible. There are signs that Gaethje has changed around his game somewhat, but it's hard to say that since we've only seen a few minutes of him in his last few fights. There's also a chance he might be essentially the same guy that eats a lot of shots and slows down halfway through a 3 rounder. If that's the case, then he needs an early KO (he isn't going to be subbing Tony). If that's the case, he might just have a puncher's chance.

[Enfuego]

Tony broke Cerrone's nose early in the 2nd round. The late punch contributed to Cowboy's damage, but Cowboy had nothing for Tony at that point in the fight.

Tony was starting to outstrike RDA before the eyepoke already.

The Barboza upkick IMO, wasn't a huge factor in the fight. Barboza obviously doesn't like pressure and it was already starting to overwhelm him and was only going to get worse as time goes by.

Gaethje KO'ing Ferguson is obvious one of the main possibilities of the fight, but people are overestimating it's likelihood since Gaethje has a string of 3 KO's and because we've seen Tony dropped a few times in 15 UFC fights. UFC average KO rate is 26% at lightweight. If you want to get Justin KO above 50%, you'd have to say that he's become such a crazy finisher, that he's 4 times as likely to KO a guy who's never been finished in 15 UFC fights than average. Tony's age will come into play, of course, but the base rates say indicate that it's more likely to get to later rounds where Tony will have the advantage.

At the same time, you can make caveats on Gaethje's last 3 KO's. Barboza was eye poked right before the KO, and Cowboy and Vick have been on a streak of getting kO'd, both looking terrible. There are signs that Gaethje has changed around his game somewhat, but it's hard to say that since we've only seen a few minutes of him in his last few fights. There's also a chance he might be essentially the same guy that eats a lot of shots and slows down halfway through a 3 rounder. If that's the case, then he needs an early KO (he isn't going to be subbing Tony). If that's the case, he might just have a puncher's chance.

Not to mention Tony's chin is well above average.

[Sanity Check]

Tony broke Cerrone's nose early in the 2nd round.

What confuses the hell out of me is.

Later Cowboy's nose was confirmed as not having been broken.

I think the same can be said of Eddie Alvarez in that one fight where his eye ballooned.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i don't know it is bizarre. Cerrone was blatant even Rogan said it and he loves Tony. In that fight it was only a matter of time Tony would have taken Cerrone out or he would have won an easy three round decision. His fight with Barbosa was close and i thought he was losing to Dos Angos when that poke turned the whole fight around. You watch Tony more than me do you remember other fights like this on his way up the ranks. I still love watching him fight. I thought it was bizarre recently he said he never spars. Than i see him say he sparred for this fight. He better have cause he leaves that chin up way to much and is known to get hit and Gaethje can crack a lot better than the last few guys he fought.

I think you highlighted good examples.

Against Barboza, he lost R1 and was deducted a point for the Illegal Upkick so it was a 10-8 Barboza round.

Against RDA, RDA won R1 before Tony eyepoked him and won R2. I had RDA winning R3 and before Tony took over in R4/R5 to win a 48-47 decision.

Against Cerrone, Tony definitely hit him after the bell (as you correctly pointed out) but he immediately apologized and was already way up in that fight (won both R1/R2).

I think that in general, Tony comes back to win after losing early in lots of fights and while the incidents you pointed out definitely happened, I don't think they were intentional nor the chief reason that he won those fights. To me, the general theme is that Tony gets behind early in a lot of fights because he is so hittable. However, he adjusts to his opponents' skills and no one can keep up with his pace so he usually drowns them in pressure and volume later on. The Kevin Lee, Lando Vannata, and Abel Trujillo fights are good examples of times where Tony turned the fight in the second round without any controversy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not to mention Tony's chin is well above average.

I'm a huge Tony fan but I actually disagree. I measure chin by the amount of Knockdowns that someone sustains as well as the amount of times that they are hurt. I think we've seen Tony hurt and dropped in a lot of fights. What sets him apart is his heart and recovery rate rather than being impossible to hurt in the first place.

[Enfuego]

I'm a huge Tony fan but I actually disagree. I measure chin by the amount of Knockdowns that someone sustains as well as the amount of times that they are hurt. I think we've seen Tony hurt and dropped in a lot of fights. What sets him apart is his heart and recovery rate rather than being impossible to hurt in the first place.

I think him getting knocked down has to do somewhat with the unorthodox style he fights with so although he gets knocked down, he's not hurt but simply off balance.

[Sanity Check]

Nvm. I didn't do this post the justice it deserves.

Abort.

[eligibletackle]

on Cowboy in a fade Pettis move. i guess prior matchup and mutual opponents kind of favor pettis but it's just hard for me to see him winning outside of flash t/ko so i'll go cerrone here above pick em odds

[Enfuego]

I understand betting Cruz from a value perspective but people aren't giving Cejudo the credit he deserves. He's going to KO Cruz.

[JIBBBY]

3 days to go... Still not cancelled yet ... Tick tock!!!

[JIBBBY]

Many Dogs could certainly bark in this card...

[Demonata]

I hope cejudo loses

[Nigi]

I believe is a good fight card to bet on the underdogs.

[Enfuego]

I bet Luke Thomas is sitting in his house angry as penetrate right now this card is taking place.

[JIBBBY]

I can see Dom Cruz point boxing Henry to a decision win..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I can see Dom Cruz point boxing Henry to a decision win..

It would be an all time great achievement for him to come back from another 3.5 year layoff and win the title against an elite fighter with no tune up.

[PaperTrail07]

that's why I feel he will be up for it....if he waited THIS LONG to return in shit form.....is what it is......I also think it would be a HUGE feather in HC's cap......leaning Cruz myself....just cant see HC landing much on the feet.....if anything.....

It would be an all time great achievement for him to come back from another 3.5 year layoff and win the title against an elite fighter with no tune up.

[UncleChael]

You guys don't get it yet.
TONY FERGUSON is a CONTRACT KILLER in that bitch.

[JIBBBY]

You guys don't get it yet.
TONY FERGUSON is a CONTRACT KILLER in that bitch.

Slightly psycho I agree.. Living on the edge of sanity from what I've seen in recent interviews.. Could snap and need brain chill meds soon..

[UncleChael]

Slightly psycho I agree.. Living on the edge of sanity from what I've seen in recent interviews.. Could snap and need brain chill meds soon..

Just make sure to hedge with Tony Ferguson.
18-1in the UFC with 14 finishes. That boy lives dangerously.

[Sanity Check]

I bet Luke Thomas is sitting in his house angry as penetrate right now this card is taking place.

Fuk Luke Thomas.

And all the other fake MMA journalists.

[Enfuego]

Fuk Luke Thomas.

And all the other fake MMA journalists.

He blocked me on Twitter. He's a giant douche.

[Sanity Check]

He blocked me on Twitter. He's a giant douche.

Luke Thomas interviewed Andrew Yang awhile ago.

Andrew Yang lied and talked a lot of bullshit.

Luke Thomas just smiled and lapped it up.

[JIBBBY]

Just make sure to hedge with Tony Ferguson.
18-1in the UFC with 14 finishes. That boy lives dangerously.

I'm on Fergy ITD... Hard to bet against him.. He has been rocked before though by a good punch and doing the dance, hope he doesn't get clipped and really dropped.. If I do hedge and decide to play it EXTREMELY safe with little profit it will be the KO hedge the other way..

1009 Ferguson wins inside distance

-120

1037 Gaethje wins by TKO/KO

+175

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

3 days away

[Thrilla]

[JIBBBY]

I'm on the Pettis by KO prop as well.. Cowboys chin is shot these days, he gets dropped almost in every fight now.. Showtime drops him and maybe in the 1st round..

1533 Pettis wins by TKO/KO

+185

1521 Pettis wins in round 1

+325

[JIBBBY]

Still I'm thinking with no crowd or fans cheering in on these fights it will be like training in the gym and sparring sessions almost for the fighters. Maybe alot of these fights go the distance when other wise you wouldn't think so..

VERY TRICKY to cap these fights with empty arenas and no fan support live.. You just don't know how that will impact the fighters?????

[Thor4140]

Tony broke Cerrone's nose early in the 2nd round. The late punch contributed to Cowboy's damage, but Cowboy had nothing for Tony at that point in the fight.

Tony was starting to outstrike RDA before the eyepoke already.

The Barboza upkick IMO, wasn't a huge factor in the fight. Barboza obviously doesn't like pressure and it was already starting to overwhelm him and was only going to get worse as time goes by.

Gaethje KO'ing Ferguson is obvious one of the main possibilities of the fight, but people are overestimating it's likelihood since Gaethje has a string of 3 KO's and because we've seen Tony dropped a few times in 15 UFC fights. UFC average KO rate is 26% at lightweight. If you want to get Justin KO above 50%, you'd have to say that he's become such a crazy finisher, that he's 4 times as likely to KO a guy who's never been finished in 15 UFC fights than average. Tony's age will come into play, of course, but the base rates say indicate that it's more likely to get to later rounds where Tony will have the advantage.

At the same time, you can make caveats on Gaethje's last 3 KO's. Barboza was eye poked right before the KO, and Cowboy and Vick have been on a streak of getting kO'd, both looking terrible. There are signs that Gaethje has changed around his game somewhat, but it's hard to say that since we've only seen a few minutes of him in his last few fights. There's also a chance he might be essentially the same guy that eats a lot of shots and slows down halfway through a 3 rounder. If that's the case, then he needs an early KO (he isn't going to be subbing Tony). If that's the case, he might just have a puncher's chance.

i agree with almost everything you said except the RDA comment. Tony was losing that fight and the poke change the whole thing around. My fear of betting Gaethje is him being that guy once again, who takes a lot of shots. The way tony throws those elbows he doesn't want to be on the receiving end of one of those. Has he shored up those holes or where the knockouts guys who are on the tail end of their careers. I am going to be totally honest here. There is no statement win from Tony when i look at his wins the last five years. There is no Conor, no Kahib, no Dustin, or even Nate. It is a bunch of guys who have been solid their whole careers but not great fighters. Kevin Lee more hype than fight. Barbosa is a nice win but Barbosa is kinda shot, RDA well i have said my feelings in that fight, Pettis is pretty washed up, Cerrone same thing. I never saw the Josh Tompson fight but i would be curious to see how that fight looked.

[Hugo de Naranja]

You guys don't get it yet.
TONY FERGUSON is a CONTRACT KILLER in that bitch.

Unc knows what's up

[Hugo de Naranja]

@Thor That version of Barboza was prime, not shot like the version Gaethje beat.

Check out the Thomson fight. Great example of Tony's cutting elbows, or "blades" as he likes to call them.

[turbozed]

i agree with almost everything you said except the RDA comment. Tony was losing that fight and the poke change the whole thing around. My fear of betting Gaethje is him being that guy once again, who takes a lot of shots. The way tony throws those elbows he doesn't want to be on the receiving end of one of those. Has he shored up those holes or where the knockouts guys who are on the tail end of their careers. I am going to be totally honest here. There is no statement win from Tony when i look at his wins the last five years. There is no Conor, no Kahib, no Dustin, or even Nate. It is a bunch of guys who have been solid their whole careers but not great fighters. Kevin Lee more hype than fight. Barbosa is a nice win but Barbosa is kinda shot, RDA well i have said my feelings in that fight, Pettis is pretty washed up, Cerrone same thing. I never saw the Josh Tompson fight but i would be curious to see how that fight looked.

At the time Tony fought those guys, they weren't in their primes but they weren't shot. Cowboy was on a 3 fight win streak just having beat Hernandez and Iaquinta. Pettis was still competitive beating guys like Wonderboy, Chiesa, Miller and Chucky Olives but losing to greats like Poirier and Holloway. Lee was on a 5-fight win streak and people were saying (erroneously) at the time he would be competitive with Khabib. Barboza was still legit in 2015 as evidenced by his win streak after losing to Tony. You could argue that Tony contributed to a few of those guys looking more shot by how much damage he put on them. I think the take that Tony wins weren't impressive wins is heavily influenced by hindsight bias.

That being said, Gaethje might be a completely new fighter after his eye surgery. He's a legit live dog, but if he wins it won't be because Tony was overrated IMO.

[Unwritten Law]

I like these two warriors in El Cucuy and Gaethje...wished they weren't matched up like this. I think UFC feeding them to protect Conor and Khabib.....El Cucuy is a live dog against Khabib and I think he matches well.....same for Gaethje, I think he would outstrike Conor and give him serious trouble....now they are fighting each other and one has to go down this Saturday.

[Demonata]

I like uriah hall to beat souza