Ahhh yes it is that time again. Time to make some bank at the sake of someone getting their face turned into something that resembles a lunchmeat vagina (see pornstars). Let’s home the good karma continues and I can build on the good results from UFC 100. I like this card but it was hard to find much value in the underdogs.
BJ Penn vs Ken Florian:
Let’s start by saying that I will refuse to refer to Florian has “Ken-Flo” from this point forward. Seriously, he couldn’t google nicknames on the internet to find something a little more creative and less, how should I put this, flaming? But I digress….I tried long and hard to try to justify putting some money down on Florian on this fight and I just couldn’t find a reason to do it. BJ is stronger in pretty much every aspect, other than Florian having pointier elbows. If I had to guess I’m going to assume Kenny is going to try and keep this fight standing, picking his shots and trying to use his muay thai to keep Penn at bay while scoring points. Unfortunately, Penn is no slouch on the feet and I believe he has the faster and more powerful hands of the two. As well, If Penn wants, I don’t see any reason why he can’t take this fight to the ground. Florian’s wrestling is average at best while BJ has great takedowns when he wants to use them. I also think BJ is going to be going for blood in this fight coming off that embarrassing beatdown he suffered at the hands of my fellow Canadian GSP. He is supposedly going to be in the best shape of his life from working with Marv Marinovich, but in all honesty Penn’s cardio hasn’t been all that bad when he fights at Lightweight. Its when he gets fat and lazy at 170 where he struggles. Ultimately I see BJ landing some big shots in the standup that drop Florian to the ground. BJ will then work some ground and pound until he can secure either mount for a TKO or take the back for a RNC. Chalk another win at lightweight up for the Hawaiian.
My Pick: BJ Penn (-235) 2.5 units to win 1.1 units
Kurt Pellegrino vs Josh Neer
I’ve always liked Batman, whether it was the cheesy old movies or the new Chistian Bale with the annoying voice versions. I guess that translates to MMA as well. Kurt is always one of those guys who’s going to put on a show no matter what, and for the most part he’s been successful in his UFC career. His only 2 losses in the UFC came to Nate Diaz and Joe Stevenson – no sloutches that’s for sure. I was really impressed with his poise in his win against Tavares, especially when it looked like he was gunna get tapped once again. This is a big test for him against a large and well rounded fighter in Josh Neer. Neer has been on quite a run himself. He’s beaten the likes of Danzig, Din Thomas, the previously mentioned Stevenson. He also was more competitive against Nate Diaz than was Pellegrino, losing a close split decision. He’s got great stand up, decent wrestling and underrated submissions. If you look at his record, 11 of his 25 wins have come by submission, although some of those were due to some serious ground and pound striking. So based on this you would assume I’m taking Neer. Well, I should be, but I just see a lot of value in this line for Pellegrino. Although I do believe he should be a dog, I just wasn’t expecting the line to be this high. I think if Pellegrino can get this fight to the ground and use his superior grappling to frustrate Neer, he may be able to work towards a submission or decision. There’s obviously the chance that Pellegrino’s ego gets the better of him and he decides to stand and trade. If that’s the case my money will be disappearing like Affliction – a blink of a eye.
My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino (+180) 0.75 units to win 1.35 units
Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida vs Kendall Grove
Ill keep the name theme going and say that the name Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida is quite bad ass. Now to the fight. I know a lot of ppl will disagree with me here but I’m just not that impressed with what I’ve seen from Almeida as of late. I realize hes coming off an extremely long layoff but he just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that he had before his abrupt early retirement. Yes he’s a wizard on the ground, but I have a feeling this fight might not make it there. Grove is a towering man with great muay thai. Yes his chin is like porcelain but when’s the last time you’ve seen Big Dog knock a brotha out? Ricardo’s standup is weak and his takedowns are nothing to brag about. He will have a great shot to win if he can pull guard and trip Grove up, but I’m betting on the fact that Grove will be able to use his gorilla like reach to keep Almeida away. And if Almeida gets in close, Ill hope Grove can use his excellent clinch game to level Ricardo’s giant melon. To note, Almeida has already mentioned that he will most likely be dropping to 170 following this fight, so to me that’s just some extra incentive to think this fight isn’t a game changer for him. Ill take my chances with a decent size dog.
My Pick: Kendall Grove (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units.
Aaron Riley vs Shane Nelson
So this is the rematch after than debacle of a first fight. Let’s hope the ref isn’t tripping on acid this time. Or was it poop that I smelled when he decided to stop the fight beyond early – a case of the runs?? This is more of a play against on Shane Nelson that a play on Riley. Nelson hasn’t shown me anything to think he can hang with a veteran like Riley. Sure he trains with BJ Penn…who cares? Name some useful fighters that have come out of that camp. Aaron is stronger, more powerful, and a better wrestler and I’m pretty sure hes planning on unleashing a massive douse of beatdown as a result of the first fight. And for those who say his record is pretty weak at 27-11. Look at who he has lost to – Eddie Alvarez, Spencer Fisher, Chris Lytle, Robbie Lawler, Yves Edwards, etc etc. Let me know where Shane Nelson stands next to those guys.
My Pick: Aaron Riley (-155) 2.5 units to win 1.625 units
Matt Riddle vs Dan Cramer
Both of these guys are quite new to the MMA scene in terms of experience, Riddle with 2 fights and Cramer with 1. Cramer won his first fight beating Matt Arroyo by split decision, not that that says much. He does train with a good team at ATT. Overall, I didn’t see much that I liked of him on the show. On the other hand, Riddle entertained me not only with his fights but with his retarded hair and teenager antics. Both of these guys have similar styles, but I believe Riddle is better in pretty much every category. As well, he should be the bigger guy come fight time and I expect him to use his superior wrestling to get the fight to the ground and ground and pound his way to a win.
My Pick: Matt Riddle (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Danillo Villefort vs Jessie Lennox
I’m not going to lie – Villefort is one of my favourite up-and-comers. The guy is ridiculously entertaining and has looked tremendous in his last 2 fights. He’s got slick submissions and loves to push the pace. He isn’t facing a slouch though in this one. Lennox has good wrestling and great ground and pound. He probably has the edge on the feet as well. However, I don’t think he can avoid the takedown for long in this one, once hes on his back, I think he will be as lost as Bisping after his near-death experience at UFC 100. Indio by whatever submission he wants.
My Pick: Danillo Villefort (-190) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Tamdan Mccrory vs John Howard
I’ll keep this short and sweet – Tamdan will look like Hong Man Choi when standing in the ring with Howard. The guy is a skyscraper and has the skills to back it up. He will have a massive reach advantage and expect him to make use of it. I expect the Barncat to pounce on his prey and get the TKO (see what I did there).
My Pick: Tamdan Mccrory (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Even though I’d love to have action on the co-main event I don’t see any value. If I had to pick a winner id go with Silva, but if Forrest can somehow get it to the ground and lay on Silva for 3 rounds he has a chance.
BJ Penn vs Ken Florian:
Let’s start by saying that I will refuse to refer to Florian has “Ken-Flo” from this point forward. Seriously, he couldn’t google nicknames on the internet to find something a little more creative and less, how should I put this, flaming? But I digress….I tried long and hard to try to justify putting some money down on Florian on this fight and I just couldn’t find a reason to do it. BJ is stronger in pretty much every aspect, other than Florian having pointier elbows. If I had to guess I’m going to assume Kenny is going to try and keep this fight standing, picking his shots and trying to use his muay thai to keep Penn at bay while scoring points. Unfortunately, Penn is no slouch on the feet and I believe he has the faster and more powerful hands of the two. As well, If Penn wants, I don’t see any reason why he can’t take this fight to the ground. Florian’s wrestling is average at best while BJ has great takedowns when he wants to use them. I also think BJ is going to be going for blood in this fight coming off that embarrassing beatdown he suffered at the hands of my fellow Canadian GSP. He is supposedly going to be in the best shape of his life from working with Marv Marinovich, but in all honesty Penn’s cardio hasn’t been all that bad when he fights at Lightweight. Its when he gets fat and lazy at 170 where he struggles. Ultimately I see BJ landing some big shots in the standup that drop Florian to the ground. BJ will then work some ground and pound until he can secure either mount for a TKO or take the back for a RNC. Chalk another win at lightweight up for the Hawaiian.
My Pick: BJ Penn (-235) 2.5 units to win 1.1 units
Kurt Pellegrino vs Josh Neer
I’ve always liked Batman, whether it was the cheesy old movies or the new Chistian Bale with the annoying voice versions. I guess that translates to MMA as well. Kurt is always one of those guys who’s going to put on a show no matter what, and for the most part he’s been successful in his UFC career. His only 2 losses in the UFC came to Nate Diaz and Joe Stevenson – no sloutches that’s for sure. I was really impressed with his poise in his win against Tavares, especially when it looked like he was gunna get tapped once again. This is a big test for him against a large and well rounded fighter in Josh Neer. Neer has been on quite a run himself. He’s beaten the likes of Danzig, Din Thomas, the previously mentioned Stevenson. He also was more competitive against Nate Diaz than was Pellegrino, losing a close split decision. He’s got great stand up, decent wrestling and underrated submissions. If you look at his record, 11 of his 25 wins have come by submission, although some of those were due to some serious ground and pound striking. So based on this you would assume I’m taking Neer. Well, I should be, but I just see a lot of value in this line for Pellegrino. Although I do believe he should be a dog, I just wasn’t expecting the line to be this high. I think if Pellegrino can get this fight to the ground and use his superior grappling to frustrate Neer, he may be able to work towards a submission or decision. There’s obviously the chance that Pellegrino’s ego gets the better of him and he decides to stand and trade. If that’s the case my money will be disappearing like Affliction – a blink of a eye.
My Pick: Kurt Pellegrino (+180) 0.75 units to win 1.35 units
Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida vs Kendall Grove
Ill keep the name theme going and say that the name Ricardo “Big Dog” Almeida is quite bad ass. Now to the fight. I know a lot of ppl will disagree with me here but I’m just not that impressed with what I’ve seen from Almeida as of late. I realize hes coming off an extremely long layoff but he just doesn’t seem to have the same fire that he had before his abrupt early retirement. Yes he’s a wizard on the ground, but I have a feeling this fight might not make it there. Grove is a towering man with great muay thai. Yes his chin is like porcelain but when’s the last time you’ve seen Big Dog knock a brotha out? Ricardo’s standup is weak and his takedowns are nothing to brag about. He will have a great shot to win if he can pull guard and trip Grove up, but I’m betting on the fact that Grove will be able to use his gorilla like reach to keep Almeida away. And if Almeida gets in close, Ill hope Grove can use his excellent clinch game to level Ricardo’s giant melon. To note, Almeida has already mentioned that he will most likely be dropping to 170 following this fight, so to me that’s just some extra incentive to think this fight isn’t a game changer for him. Ill take my chances with a decent size dog.
My Pick: Kendall Grove (+150) 1.5 units to win 2.25 units.
Aaron Riley vs Shane Nelson
So this is the rematch after than debacle of a first fight. Let’s hope the ref isn’t tripping on acid this time. Or was it poop that I smelled when he decided to stop the fight beyond early – a case of the runs?? This is more of a play against on Shane Nelson that a play on Riley. Nelson hasn’t shown me anything to think he can hang with a veteran like Riley. Sure he trains with BJ Penn…who cares? Name some useful fighters that have come out of that camp. Aaron is stronger, more powerful, and a better wrestler and I’m pretty sure hes planning on unleashing a massive douse of beatdown as a result of the first fight. And for those who say his record is pretty weak at 27-11. Look at who he has lost to – Eddie Alvarez, Spencer Fisher, Chris Lytle, Robbie Lawler, Yves Edwards, etc etc. Let me know where Shane Nelson stands next to those guys.
My Pick: Aaron Riley (-155) 2.5 units to win 1.625 units
Matt Riddle vs Dan Cramer
Both of these guys are quite new to the MMA scene in terms of experience, Riddle with 2 fights and Cramer with 1. Cramer won his first fight beating Matt Arroyo by split decision, not that that says much. He does train with a good team at ATT. Overall, I didn’t see much that I liked of him on the show. On the other hand, Riddle entertained me not only with his fights but with his retarded hair and teenager antics. Both of these guys have similar styles, but I believe Riddle is better in pretty much every category. As well, he should be the bigger guy come fight time and I expect him to use his superior wrestling to get the fight to the ground and ground and pound his way to a win.
My Pick: Matt Riddle (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Danillo Villefort vs Jessie Lennox
I’m not going to lie – Villefort is one of my favourite up-and-comers. The guy is ridiculously entertaining and has looked tremendous in his last 2 fights. He’s got slick submissions and loves to push the pace. He isn’t facing a slouch though in this one. Lennox has good wrestling and great ground and pound. He probably has the edge on the feet as well. However, I don’t think he can avoid the takedown for long in this one, once hes on his back, I think he will be as lost as Bisping after his near-death experience at UFC 100. Indio by whatever submission he wants.
My Pick: Danillo Villefort (-190) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Tamdan Mccrory vs John Howard
I’ll keep this short and sweet – Tamdan will look like Hong Man Choi when standing in the ring with Howard. The guy is a skyscraper and has the skills to back it up. He will have a massive reach advantage and expect him to make use of it. I expect the Barncat to pounce on his prey and get the TKO (see what I did there).
My Pick: Tamdan Mccrory (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Even though I’d love to have action on the co-main event I don’t see any value. If I had to pick a winner id go with Silva, but if Forrest can somehow get it to the ground and lay on Silva for 3 rounds he has a chance.
Loved it.
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