UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs. Jacare (November 16, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Jan Blachowicz vs Ronaldo Souza
Paul Graig vs Mauricio Rua
Jared Gordon vs Charles Oliveira
Antonio Arroyo vs Andre Muniz
Markus Perez vs Wellington Turman

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
James Krause vs Sergio Moraes
Eduardo Garagorri vs Ricardo Ramos
Bobby Green vs Francisco Trinaldo
Warlley Alves vs Randy Brown
Renan Barao vs Douglas de Andrade
Priscila Cachoeira vs Ariane Lipski
Tracy Cortez vs Vanessa Melo

[Sanity Check]

The Luke Rockhold, Ronaldo Souza rivalry was big back in the strikeforce hey days.

I'm going to feel old if Jacare gets taken out, the way Rockhold did.

[PaperTrail07]

Crazy matchups on this card...Brown/Alves-Green/Trinaldo-

Rua should Destroy Craig.....

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Teem]

Crazy matchups on this card...Brown/Alves-Green/Trinaldo-

Rua should Destroy Craig.....

What do you think of Brown/Alves? I was thinking of taking Alves. Cardio has been an issue but he looked good in three rounds vs Moraes his last time out.

[PaperTrail07]

I would lean that direction as well down south and agree w the cardio issue.....Brown will push the pace-tie up and look for takedowns....if it stays on the feet....he should be good...

What do you think of Brown/Alves? I was thinking of taking Alves. Cardio has been an issue but he looked good in three rounds vs Moraes his last time out.

[PaperTrail07]

Liking
Perez,
Rua,
Moraes,
so far....

[bjpenn85]

Liking
Perez,
Rua,
Moraes,
so far....

I see Moraes getting outclassed on the feet, but in traditional sao paulo fashion get awarded the split dec. Playable at +180. Also having a little sneaky chance of a moraes submission also. But first of all i think this will be a loopsided striking affair where Krausse picks Moraes apart standing and loosing a split.

[PaperTrail07]

Exactly....and I know Hugo does not agree....BUT his back is to the wall....needs this W and will come prepared......

I see Moraes getting outclassed on the feet, but in traditional sao paulo fashion get awarded the split dec. Playable at +180. Also having a little sneaky chance of a moraes submission also. But first of all i think this will be a loopsided striking affair where Krausse picks Moraes apart standing and loosing a split.

[bjpenn85]

Exactly....and I know Hugo does not agree....BUT his back is to the wall....needs this W and will come prepared......

Its frustrating to have to bet the likely looser. Its also a small chance here i think that he ends up getting TKOed by Krausse.

But, fight is in Sao Paulo, his hometown, and twice has Moraes get awarded unfair split dec in Brazil, also in Sao Paulo. If hes ever going to be motivated its in this fight. He might fight up to his potential this time. Fight is also high enough up on the card that i think that there will be enough people in the arena to sway the judges. In USA, i would have made a 4 unit bet on Krausse. In Sauo paulo i probably toss in a unit on Moraes to almost get 2 in return. Split dec screen all day here baby.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree-and as crazy as it is to say "type" but when these guy back get to the wall.....IS WHEN THEY USE PED's LOL.....watch him come in stronger tha ever and grapple penetrate Krause looking like Till vs Gast.....

Its frustrating to have to bet the likely looser. Its also a small chance here i think that he ends up getting TKOed by Krausse.

But, fight is in Sao Paulo, his hometown, and twice has Moraes get awarded unfair split dec in Brazil, also in Sao Paulo. If hes ever going to be motivated its in this fight. He might fight up to his potential this time. Fight is also high enough up on the card that i think that there will be enough people in the arena to sway the judges. In USA, i would have made a 4 unit bet on Krausse. In Sauo paulo i probably toss in a unit on Moraes to almost get 2 in return. Split dec screen all day here baby.

[bjpenn85]

Agree-and as crazy as it is to say "type" but when these guy back get to the wall.....IS WHEN THEY USE PED's LOL.....watch him come in stronger tha ever and grapple penetrate Krause looking like Till vs Gast.....

If he lands a takedown their going to score it for Moraes, and he is pretty good from top position, not sold on Krausse takedown defence either, sometimes gives up his back as well. Moraes is very calm on the ground, advance slowly but carefully, youre sinking...and the points rack up while doing it. So one takedown is what he needs during that 3 round span to win 1 round. And the next two rounds he only needs to be competitive, you have another faulty round score for Moraes there...boom, theres your money. Thats how i see this fight going down.

It may also just be a 30-27 where Krausse just pot shot him all day, and even the most kurupt judges on earth cant put their name on the score cards as it would be too obvious and dodgy. But i like my chances here at +180 with the sao-paulo effect and moraes one takedown per fight lol.

[PaperTrail07]

If Krause is walking backwards...he could land shots for 2-3 mins...Moraes gets a TD.....round=Moraes.......BINGO

If he lands a takedown their going to score it for Moraes, and he is pretty good from top position, not sold on Krausse takedown defence either, sometimes gives up his back as well. Moraes is very calm on the ground, advance slowly but carefully, youre sinking...and the points rack up while doing it. So one takedown is what he needs during that 3 round span to win 1 round. And the next two rounds he only needs to be competitive, you have another faulty round score for Moraes there...boom, theres your money. Thats how i see this fight going down.

It may also just be a 30-27 where Krausse just pot shot him all day, and even the most kurupt judges on earth cant put their name on the score cards as it would be too obvious and dodgy. But i like my chances here at +180 with the sao-paulo effect and moraes one takedown per fight lol.

[bjpenn85]

If Krause is walking backwards...he could land shots for 2-3 mins...Moraes gets a TD.....round=Moraes.......BINGO

Outside US scoring is really bad, i at least have slept on this aspect of MMA especially after killing it before summer. Accounts where shutting down more readily than hoes could serve new customers.

I think we actually now after the summer has seen a clear regression on the quality of judging. From before the summer, i think 9 out of 13 events was in US/UK and those where my best month maybe all time in my betting career.

I had an abnormally bad september this year close to one of the absolute worst in my betting career...and no coincidence there, none of the cards where situated in the US or UK, where scoring is reasonably good by MMA standards. So while US judging seems to be doing better i think, in the rest of the world the juding is still outrageous an absolute parody as we all know.

[Teem]

Green or Trinaldo?

[bjpenn85]

Green or Trinaldo?

I think Trinaldo wins, but i can easily see that judges award Green the victory in a robbery type of scenario. Or at least a fight where Trinaldo clearly won. Think Green is more likely to get dropped, but i think the fight is so close its almost a 50/50.

These judges outside US is as mentioned before so difficult to predict. One would think home cooking where the standard but the judges dont care many times, they simply hand out victories randomly. Completely randomly. So i wouldnt bet it since it likely goes to the scorecards.

Another angle is to take Trinaldo, and then when the betting sites heavily favour him hedge out some of the profit on Green at +500 so you get money back if trinaldo loses. Regardless of how loopsided you believe the fight is, they can still give the fight to green even if its pretty clear that Trinaldo won 30-27.

[unlearn]

barao misses weight -1000

[JIBBBY]

MMA MANIA write ups...


170 lbs.: Warlley Alves vs. Randy Brown

Warlley Alves (13-3) hit the ground running after a dominant run through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” 3 tournament, winning his next three Octagon bouts and choking out Colby Covington in the process. A 2-3 skid followed, though he managed to get back on track in May with a brutal, bonus-winning knockout of Sergio Moraes at UFC 237.
He’ll give up four inches of height and six inches of reach to “Rude Boy.”
Randy Brown (11-3) — the inaugural graduate of “Lookin’ for a Fight” — picked up wins in three of his first four Octagon appearances, including finishes of Erick Montaño and Brian Camozzi. Despite suffering losses in two of his next three, most notably an insane technical knockout loss via hammer fists from the bottom, he put on a career-best performance in June en route to stopping the iron-tough Bryan Barberena in three.
He has knocked out six professional opponents and submitted another three.
Warlley Alves fighting to the best of his abilities is a terrifying thought to consider. The guy has so much potential that he’s utterly failed to live up to, but the Moraes fight gave a tantalizing glimpse of his capabilities. If that was the start of a trend for the Brazilian, Brown is in all sorts of trouble; Alves is the bigger hitter, better wrestler, and more potent submission threat.
Alves has had all of those advantages in the past, though, and come up short because of a lack of cardio. The Alves that burned himself out against Bryan Barberena and got dominated at range by James Krause would be in trouble, but the fact that he managed three busy rounds against Moraes has me leaning his way. Alves powers through Brown’s rangy onslaught to drag him to the mat and wrap up his favored guillotine.
Prediction: Alves via second-round submission

145 lbs.: Renan Barao vs. Douglas Andrade

Renan Barao (34-8) — once a pound-for-pound staple — the former Bantamweight king is now just 1-6 since 2014, the only win a narrow one over Phillipe Nover. His current four-fight skid includes a brutal knockout loss to Luke Sanders last February in his most recent effort.
Though the shorter man, he’ll have a two-inch reach advantage.
Douglas Andrade’s (25-3) UFC career has seen him compete just six times in five years, racking up a 3-3 record overall. He currently finds himself in a 1-2 rut, a decision over Marlon Vera sandwiched between stoppage losses to Rob Font and Petr Yan.
He has scored 19 knockouts and one submission as a professional.
A 3-3 record may not look good on paper, but it’s worth noting that Andrade’s only lost to really solid fighters in UFC — when the worst among them is Zubaira Tukhugov, there’s not much to be ashamed of. The guy still hits like a freight train and was durable enough to take a mauling from Yan before his corner stopped things.
Barao, meanwhile, is an absolute shell of his former self. His killer jab and A+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu are nowhere to be found, while the chin that stood up to heinous damage from T.J. Dillashaw looks to have finally cracked against Sanders. Barao’s habit of getting caught up in brawls and losing them in violent fashion rears its head once again as Andrade obliterates him with power punches.
Prediction: Andrade via first-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Ariane Lipski vs. Veronica Macedo

A nine-fight win streak and a KSW title earned Ariane Lipski (11-5) considerable fanfare before her Octagon debut, but Joanne Calderwood’s wrestling proved more than “The Violence Queen” could handle. Her sophomore effort put her up against Molly McCann, who handed Lipski her second consecutive upset loss in Greenville.
Six of her eight stoppage wins have come via (technical) knockout.
Venezuela’s Veronica Macedo (6-3-1) stumbled out of the UFC gate, losing her first three fights to Ashlee Evans-Smith, Andrea Lee, and Gillian Robertson. With her back against the wall, she took on jiu-jitsu expert Polyana Viana in August, scoring a bonus-winning armbar in just 69 seconds.
She steps in for Priscilla Cachoeira, who failed a drug test, on less than two weeks’ notice.
I’m honestly not ready to write Lipski off yet — both Calderwood and McCann are quality fighters who’ve accomplished quite a bit more than Macedo during their Octagon tenures. Macedo is a far more limited takedown artist than those two and I don’t see her surviving a striking battle with “The Violence Queen,” who hits much harder and delivers a higher output of strikes.
This may just be me trying to save face after hyping Lipski up in New Blood, but I do think she’s got the potential to do some real damage with a little more seasoning. She batters Macedo on the feet for her first UFC victory.
Prediction: Lipski via second-round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Vanessa Melo

A submission loss in her professional debut didn’t stop Tracy Cortez (6-1) from embarking on a five-fight win streak, two of those victories coming under the Invicta banner. This led to a “Contender Series” appearance against Mariya Agapova, whom Cortez dominated on the mat to claim a contract.
Neither she nor Vanessa Melo (10-6) were originally part of this match up; Cortez replaced Leah Letson against Duda Santana, who was replaced in turn by Melo.
Five straight wins, capped off by a decision over veteran Jan Finney, brought Melo to UFC for a short-notice debut against the surging Irene Aldana. The Brazilian wound up grievously missing weight before losing a striking battle by unanimous decision.
This will be her second fight in two months and her third in the last four.
Even if she didn’t get the finish on the Contender Series, Cortez is a quality signing, a powerhouse wrestler with quality passing and ground-and-pound once it hits the mat. She’s already a top-10 caliber fighter at 125 by my reckoning, which is far more than I can say about the decent-but-unspectacular Melo.
“Miss Simpatia” does have a couple things going her way, namely her skill on the counter compared to Cortez’s face-first striking style, but Cortez’s takedown onslaught looks like more than she can handle. Plus, despite Cortez moving up from 125 and Melo failing to make 135 last time out, the latter’s history of competing at Flyweight suggests that foul-up was more a product of poor preparation than any notable size advantage. Cortez dominates on the mat for the full 15.
Prediction: Cortez by unanimous decision



170 lbs.: Sergio Moraes vs. James Krause

Sergio Moraes (14-5-1) put a loss to Cezar Ferreira in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Brazil” behind him to go 8-1-1 in his next 10 Octagon bouts, stopping the likes of Neil Magny and Omari Akhmedov along the way. The 37-year-old now finds himself on a two-fight losing streak, however, courtesy of Anthony Rocco Martin and fellow TUF: “Brazil” alum Warlley Alves.
He is the shorter man by two inches and will give up 1.5 inches of reach.
“The” James Krause (26-7) has quietly assembled a five-fight win streak since 2015, the only blemish a loss to eventual winner Jesse Taylor in the third round of TUF 25. His most recent effort was among the most impressive, as he defied significant odds to knock out Warlley Alves in Aug. 2018.
Fifteen of his 22 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Moraes is a frustrating man to analyze. He seems to spend 80 percent of his time as a wild brawler, completely forgetting that he’s a legitimately world-class grappler until I start to bank on him brawling. Moraes the slugger loses this by a wide margin; Krause is the rangier, more seasoned, and more versatile striker by a considerable amount. Moraes the grappler has a real shot at victory, as Krause has a paltry 46 percent takedown defense.
I already know I’m going to regret this, but I’ll bite the bullet and say Moraes takes it. He was willing to wrestle against Ben Saunders and Anthony Rocco Martin, the latter of whom is not easy to take down, and is up against a natural Lightweight he looks to be able to out-muscle. “The Panther” once again shows a young’un what-for, dragging him to the mat and tapping him from there.
Prediction: Moraes via first-round submission
Related
UFC Demotes ‘Jacare vs Hermansson’ To ESPN+


145 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Eduardo Garagorri

Ricardo Ramos (13-2) earned “Lookin’ for a Fight” redemption in his second effort, choking out Alfred Khashakyan to land himself a spot in the Octagon. He’s gone 4-1 since that victory and was last seen defeating Journey Newson to bounce back from a February stoppage loss to Said Nurmagomedov.
He has scored six first-round finishes as a professional, three of them in less than one minute.
Eduardo Garagorri (13-0) rode a streak of six consecutive first-round stoppages into his August Octagon debut, which pitted him against Humberto Bandenay in the former’s native Uruguay. Though he had to go the distance for the first time in three years, Garagorri battled his way to a dominant victory over the three-fight Octagon veteran.
All but one of his 10 finishes have come in the first round.
Stats obviously don’t paint the whole picture, but when one fighter is an elite submission artist and the other one got taken down four times by a mediocre wrestler in his last fight, it’s hard not to see the writing on the wall. Even if Ramos is probably better-suited for 135 pounds than 145, he’s so much more proven than Garagorri and so stylistically favored that this looks like a wash.
While Garagorri’s gas tank means he’s a threat from bell to bell, he’ll be a lot less of a hassle once Ramos dumps him on his rear and gets to work. “Carcacinha” works his way to the back and it’s easy work from there.
Prediction: Ramos via first-round submission
Related
Free Fight! Blachowicz Flatlines Rockhold In Vegas


155 lbs.: Francisco Trinaldo vs. Bobby Green

An unsuccessful TUF: “Brazil” run and shaky Octagon start gave way to seven consecutive victories for Francisco Trinaldo (23-7), capped off by an impressive stoppage of Paul Felder in Brasilia. “Massaranduba” has since lost three of five, though the mixed martial arts (MMA) media had him almost unanimously beating Alexander Hernandez in their July bout.
He is eight years older and an inch shorter than Bobby Green (24-9-1).
Four consecutive victories, among them a bonus-winning submission of Jacob Volkmann and split decision over Josh Thomson, brought Green to the brink of Lightweight contendership. Sailing hasn’t been quite as smooth since, as he’s gone 1-4-1 amidst a cavalcade of injuries.
This will be his first fight in 11 months.
As annoying as some of Green’s in-cage antics are, it’s hard not to feel for him. He absolutely deserved the win over Drakkar Klose last time out, and he’s become exponentially more fun to watch since that destructive loss to Dustin Poirier. Trinaldo’s a tank, though, and is coming off of a loss against Hernandez.
Both of these guys stand to benefit from karma.
Even though he’s over 40, “Massaranduba” is still my boy. His pressure looks like the answer to Green’s fancy boxing, and the former’s ability to deal huge damage on the inside should serve him well. A heavy body attack and relentless advance carry Trinaldo to the narrowest of victories.
Prediction: Trinaldo via split decision


MAIN CARD -


Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon

Best Win for Oliveira? Jeremy Stephens For Gordon? Hacran Dias
Current Streak: Oliveira has won five straight all via finish, while Gordon enters off a single win
X-Factor: Gordon’s toughness
How these two match up: What the hell does Charles Oliveira have to do to face off with a top 10-ranked opponent?
Look, I understand that Oliveira’s career has seen some ups-and-downs, but the jiu-jitsu ace has never looked better. His Muay Thai is genuinely punishing, his opportunistic submissions remain otherworldly, and overall, Oliveira has simply put it all together at 30 years of age. He’s not a scrappy young prospect anymore — “Do Bronx” is the real deal.
Jared Gordon, meanwhile, has definitely shown some talent in his much shorter UFC career, winning three of five fights. “Flash” pushes a really hard pace, constantly throwing heavy punches and looking for takedowns. Gordon thrives in wars of attrition, where cardio and grit determine the winner.
Oliveira has lost fights in the past simply because opponents were tougher, it’s true, yet he is an absolutely terrible style match up for Gordon. For one, toughness no longer seems a concern for the Brazilian, who’s happy to throw down and no longer backs away from adversity.
Besides that, Gordon simply gets hit too much. Oliveira is going to land a lot of hard shots, and there will be no safe place for “Flash.” If he stays standing, the damage will build very quickly, while even the slightest misstep while taking a shot will result in strangulation.
I don’t expect this one to last long.
Prediction: Oliveira via submission

---

Middleweight: Andre Muniz vs. Antonio Arroyo

Best Win for Muniz? Bruno Assis For Arroyo? Stephan Regman
Current Streak: Both men are making their UFC debut, but Muniz has won four straight and Arroyo has five consecutive wins
X-Factor: Cardio!
How these two match up: This is two jiu-jitsu guys fighting at 185 lbs. — the potential for ugly fighting is high.
In short, this is a mirror match up. Let’s briefly compare these two Brazilians: both men won twice on “Contender’s Series” to earn their spot on the roster. Both athletes win a majority of their bouts via submission. Muniz is 29 years old, Arroyo is 30, and they both stand precisely 6’2”.
Shockingly, the betting odds have them at even odds.
I’m not going to pretend to be an expert on the regional Brazilian scene, but I like what I’ve seen better from Muniz. Of the two grapplers, he seems the more natural kickboxer, which could be a deciding factor. Plus, he has a pretty significant reach advantage, which is actually among the best success indicators in this goofy game of fighting.
Prediction: Muniz via decision

---

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Middleweight: Markus Perez vs. Wellington Turman

Best Win for Perez? Anthony Hernandez For Turman? Marcio Alexandre Jr.
Current Streak: Perez enters off a win, Turman following a close defeat
X-Factor: Perez’s slick submission game
How these two match up: I hope everyone is excited for even more Middleweight grappling.
Perez has evenly split four fights in the Octagon, proving himself something of a wild man in the process. He’s a jiu-jitsu fighter with fairly mediocre takedowns, but Perez can surprise his foes with a spinning back fist or ripping body kick on the feet. Plus, if he does hit the mat, Perez is quite dangerous.
Turman was handed an incredibly difficult task in his UFC debut, when he squared off with Karl Roberson in Sacramento. The Brazilian nevertheless found a great deal of success with his wrestling, only to controversially lose the decision anyway.
Turman is the younger fight by eight years.
Perez is likely the more dangerous hitter, but neither of these men are particularly great strikers. Instead, it seems a match up of Turman’s wrestling and top control vs. Perez’s jiu-jitsu acumen. Perez is genuinely dangerous on the mat, and a submission would not surprise me, but betting on the better wrestler is the safer play.
Plus, there’s always a chance that no takedown is scored, and Turman wins just by holding him against the fence.
Prediction: Turman via decision

[PaperTrail07]

[PaperTrail07]

Odds for Oliviera are getting ridiculous.....Ill take Gordon +350 .....

[agendaman]

i might bet all the brazilian dogs

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm liking Oliveira by sub, Rua by ko/tko and Blachowicz.

[PaperTrail07]

Souza, Barao and Moraes........cant hate on that really w the +$ they getting....

i might bet all the brazilian dogs

[PaperTrail07]

Agree w Rua.....and price too high for me on Oliviera.....Also thinking Souza in a 5 rounder......deep water/takedowns and prayers lol...GL GL GL GL

I'm liking Oliveira by sub, Rua by ko/tko and Blachowicz.

[bjpenn85]

Odds for Oliviera are getting ridiculous.....Ill take Gordon +350 .....

Gordon will loose in every area where the fight takes place immediately. I give him max a 20% chance, which implies +400 at best. But Gordon doesnt have 20% chance of wining IMO...i think its much more likely with 15% chance of winning which equals +550.

[PaperTrail07]

For Sure......Maybe I'm banking on the fact I don't think he will get subbed out..........

Gordon will loose in every area where the fight takes place immediately. I give him max a 20% chance, which implies +400 at best. But Gordon doesnt have 20% chance of wining IMO...i think its much more likely with 15% chance of winning which equals +550.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Agree w Rua.....and price too high for me on Oliviera.....Also thinking Souza in a 5 rounder......deep water/takedowns and prayers lol...GL GL GL GL

Oliveira via sub is -130ish

[PaperTrail07]

Don't think he gets the sub here Gordon's little 5"8 frame could help for once...

Oliveira via sub is -130ish

[JIBBBY]

i might bet all the brazilian dogs

Not a bad idea in taking Brazilians in this event as they love their Jits.. Sub prop plays are something to think about for sure on a card like this that is in Brazil.. I think judging will favor the Brazilians as well if fights go to decision.. Death threat factor....

https://www.ufc.com/news/jacare-souza-happy-feeling-dangerous-ufc-sao-paulo-brazil-light-heavyweight

[Sanity Check]

Veronica Macedo pulled out due to severe headaches.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2019/11/15/20966405/ufc-sao-paulo-weigh-in-results-three-fighters-miss-weight

Isabela De Padua will be replacing her.

[JIBBBY]

Veronica Macedo pulled out due to severe headaches.

https://www.mmafighting.com/2019/11/15/20966405/ufc-sao-paulo-weigh-in-results-three-fighters-miss-weight

Isabela De Padua will be replacing her.

Cut massive weight and get dehydrated it's to be expected with headaches.. That sucks that the fight is off... He should have powered thru it or prepared better for the weight cut..

[Sanity Check]

I think Macedo pulling out is kind of, sort of, shady ^.

Veronica Macedo's replacement has a wrestling based style btw.

Ariane Lipski has had trouble with wrestlers in the past.

Don't be too quick to assume Lipski has an advantage here.

[bjpenn85]

For Sure......Maybe I'm banking on the fact I don't think he will get subbed out..........

I guess. I just feel Oliveira always will.

[turbozed]

I think Macedo pulling out is kind of, sort of, shady ^.

Veronica Macedo's replacement has a wrestling based style btw.

Ariane Lipski has had trouble with wrestlers in the past.

Don't be too quick to assume Lipski has an advantage here.

Macedo was on a week notice to replace Cachoeria for the Lipski fight. There's nothing shady about a girl taking a short notice fight and trying so hard to make weight that it affected her health. Smart of her to pull out. She's got a fight in December.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Traveling this week so I've had limited capping time. Will post picks and a few bets shortly.