UFC on ESPN+ 20: Maia vs. Askren (October 26, 2019)

**fudy213** · 10-21-19, 04:43 PM

I like Askren more as a raconteur and personality than as a fighter at this point. Id like to see him win because I like to hear from him on the mike. 2 fights into his MMA career and I dont think we really know much about him. He took a good punch and came back in the Robbie Lawler fight, ending notwithstanding. Crazy deal in the Masvidal fight. Who knows what would have happened if Jorge didnt go Superman in the first 5 seconds.'
This fight will tell us much more about the mercurial Mr. Askren. Maia is a full-on strangler. Give him an opening and he will go constrictor on you before you know whats up. Jiu Jutsu guys seem to have problems with good takedown wrestlers. Woodley took him down at will. I tend to think Askren will grind out a decision that might be boring to the average fight fan, but very interesting on a grappling/jiu jutsu level.
-180 right now on 5dimes. A little pricey for a fight that could end either way. I wont be playing this one. Ill be hoping for a FUNKY win and some fun on the mike afterward.

**freelee** · 10-21-19, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by fudy213

I like Askren more as a raconteur and personality than as a fighter at this point. Id like to see him win because I like to hear from him on the mike. 2 fights into his MMA career and I dont think we really know much about him. He took a good punch and came back in the Robbie Lawler fight, ending notwithstanding. Crazy deal in the Masvidal fight. Who knows what would have happened if Jorge didnt go Superman in the first 5 seconds.'
This fight will tell us much more about the mercurial Mr. Askren. Maia is a full-on strangler. Give him an opening and he will go constrictor on you before you know whats up. Jiu Jutsu guys seem to have problems with good takedown wrestlers. Woodley took him down at will. I tend to think Askren will grind out a decision that might be boring to the average fight fan, but very interesting on a grappling/jiu jutsu level.
-180 right now on 5dimes. A little pricey for a fight that could end either way. I wont be playing this one. Ill be hoping for a FUNKY win and some fun on the mike afterward.

Woodley had 0 takedowns against Maia

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-19, 05:22 PM

How many did Woodley attempt? The real stat is that Maia had no takedowns on Woodley and he attempted over 20.

**fudy213** · 10-21-19, 05:37 PM

I was listening to Askren on a podcast and he said that Woodley "took Maia down at will" Thats where I got that. Funky must have been watching a different fight. Since I didnt see that fight Im going to accept your point. Makes me even more firm in my opinion not to bet on that fight. Its always dangerous going to the ground with a high level Jiu Jitsu guy. Askren has to do that in order to win.
VERY interesting fight indeed.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-19, 06:20 PM

Askren and Woodley are like best friends so not surprising that he would have a different perspective on that fight than most.

**Thrilla** · 10-21-19, 07:24 PM

MMA Pros Pick

**freelee** · 10-21-19, 11:05 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

How many did Woodley attempt? The real stat is that Maia had no takedowns on Woodley and he attempted over 20.

Yeah for sure I think Askren needs the takedowns to win which he can probably get but would probably lose a stand up only fight so it comes down to if Maia can sub Askren for me it's a no bet. He attempted 0 takedowns btw.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-19, 11:19 PM

Is this the first time Maia has ever had an advantage standing?

**freelee** · 10-21-19, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Askren and Woodley are like best friends so not surprising that he would have a different perspective on that fight than most.

I'm a little surprised you think Gastulem will beat Till I feel like it's a stand up fight for sure and Till will be huge at 185 he should be favored imo

**freelee** · 10-21-19, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Is this the first time Maia has ever had an advantage standing?

It's definitely the first time in a long time but I don't think it matters much since Askren should be able to get a takedown when he wants

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-21-19, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by freelee

I'm a little surprised you think Gastulem will beat Till I feel like it's a stand up fight for sure and Till will be huge at 185 he should be favored imo

Fighter height and reach isn't that important to me. I think Gastelum is more skilled. Higher volume + better cardio.

**bjpenn85** · 10-22-19, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Fighter height and reach isn't that important to me. I think Gastelum is more skilled. Higher volume + better cardio.

Mark hunt comes in with a 10-12 inch reach disadvantage in every fight. Gastelum had the same against Israel, but still tagged Israel a lot. I dont think Till can go from those losses to suddenly beat Gastelum who basically oustrikes every fighter he faces, except israel.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-22-19, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Mark hunt comes in with a 10-12 inch reach disadvantage in every fight. Gastelum had the same against Israel, but still tagged Israel a lot. I dont think Till can go from those losses to suddenly beat Gastelum who basically oustrikes every fighter he faces, except israel.

Yup. He gave the best striker in the UFC a hell of a fight and clearly won 2 rounds.

**Demonata** · 10-22-19, 09:44 AM

I think maia going to give up the takedowns and try to sub from his back a few times....Going to be a weird fight. Neither going to knock the other out. To go the distance might be good bet.

**firekillex** · 10-22-19, 02:48 PM

rewatch shields vs maia

askren going to get takedowns and just lay ontop/ damage him up for a decision win most likely

**PaperTrail07** · 10-22-19, 03:08 PM

Salikhov for the house

**PaperTrail07** · 10-22-19, 03:09 PM

Exactly-Woodley was hitting and moving Very well

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

How many did Woodley attempt? The real stat is that Maia had no takedowns on Woodley and he attempted over 20.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-22-19, 03:11 PM

Maia too willing to go to his back.....Askren will be MORE than OK with that lol...

Originally posted by firekillex

rewatch shields vs maia

askren going to get takedowns and just lay ontop/ damage him up for a decision win most likely

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-22-19, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Salikhov for the house

Really? He’s got great power but pretty low volume.

**Pr0ph3t** · 10-22-19, 06:56 PM

Volkov-Hardy 09NOV19 UFC Moscow lol

**Pr0ph3t** · 10-22-19, 07:01 PM

Evloev/Gane parlay. Might be my first UFC ever with only one bet...

**bjpenn85** · 10-23-19, 02:13 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Really? He’s got great power but pretty low volume.

Low volume yes, effective yes. I made that mistake with Taleb. I thought Taleb was the more active fighter. But i do think being effective is more important. I think Starpoli will be quite easy to read, and that he will be very hesitant and underperform as Salihkov picks his shots. I was hesitant first to make this bet, as you said, because of the low volume, but i re-watched his fights and i change my mind. He makes read also, so it its a bit like Israel Adesanya. He will take 2-3 min in the first round and just observe and make reads.

When you say hes got great power but low volume. I think its an understatement. Hes got great technique, power and he picks his shots. Low volume is because he doesnt do what Starpoli does, throwing wasted movement, and gives easy reads that people can counter.

Starpoli will be exposed in the first two rounds, but if Salihkov doesnt get the him out of there, i he might give up the third round for a 29-28 victory. But i think the most likely outcome is that Salihkov times some of those easy readible stance switch attack from Starpoli with a well times over hand right, and finish the fight.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-23-19, 09:53 AM

Agree- but I don't see him walking backwards here-at all----just think he is a class above in all skills here....

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Really? He’s got great power but pretty low volume.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-23-19, 09:55 AM

VERY interesting IMO

Originally posted by Pr0ph3t

Volkov-Hardy 09NOV19 UFC Moscow lol

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-23-19, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Agree- but I don't see him walking backwards here-at all----just think he is a class above in all skills here....

Do you think Salikhov can win a decision?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-23-19, 11:05 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Low volume yes, effective yes. I made that mistake with Taleb. I thought Taleb was the more active fighter. But i do think being effective is more important. I think Starpoli will be quite easy to read, and that he will be very hesitant and underperform as Salihkov picks his shots. I was hesitant first to make this bet, as you said, because of the low volume, but i re-watched his fights and i change my mind. He makes read also, so it its a bit like Israel Adesanya. He will take 2-3 min in the first round and just observe and make reads.

When you say hes got great power but low volume. I think its an understatement. Hes got great technique, power and he picks his shots. Low volume is because he doesnt do what Starpoli does, throwing wasted movement, and gives easy reads that people can counter.

Starpoli will be exposed in the first two rounds, but if Salihkov doesnt get the him out of there, i he might give up the third round for a 29-28 victory. But i think the most likely outcome is that Salihkov times some of those easy readible stance switch attack from Starpoli with a well times over hand right, and finish the fight.

I think Salikhov has a good chance to finish the fight but I personally don’t think he wins if he can’t get Staropoli out of there. I’m always careful laying Moneyline chalk on guys who have low striking output.

**bjpenn85** · 10-23-19, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think Salikhov has a good chance to finish the fight but I personally don’t think he wins if he can’t get Staropoli out of there. I’m always careful laying Moneyline chalk on guys who have low striking output.

It def a factor one i have to pay attention to. I will attempto to reduce loss live if the fight doesnt pan out as expected. If i dont like what i see from the get go, i might livebet Starpoli instantly. I feel like Salikhov should win round 1, he needs the read his opponent, but i cant let him take the round off, then he might go on to loose.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 10-23-19, 01:40 PM

If I was betting Salikhov I would probably take ITD instead (likely at +money) instead of adding the extra juice with the ML since I don’t think he’ll win a decision.

**bjpenn85** · 10-23-19, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

If I was betting Salikhov I would probably take ITD instead (likely at +money) instead of adding the extra juice with the ML since I don’t think he’ll win a decision.

Most likely, but he can win one round and drop him in the second and still win a dec, or he might have the more significant shots, but still be out volumed and win a dec. In this fight i dont want to be fancy with props. It gets complicated sometimes also while im livebetting if i have to many bets on one guy.

Suddenly bookies suspend lines, and i get stressed, or some other fakked up shits, so i will keep it simple here and just hedge out of it, if it doesnt go my way, quite early.

**Teem** · 10-24-19, 11:36 AM

I don't normally bet Heavyweight fights for obvious reasons but I think I'm gonna put Hughes in a parlay and put Pavlovich in one also. Gane is too much. Hughes especially should win here.

**PaperTrail07** · 10-24-19, 01:09 PM

I do-with him advancing and landing the stronger shots---

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Do you think Salikhov can win a decision?

**PaperTrail07** · 10-24-19, 01:15 PM

Staropoli is a game fighter but Vs Alves he had physical advantages...I just think this will be his toughest test and he may have a harder time pulling the trigger with his shots

**PaperTrail07** · 10-25-19, 10:39 AM

So Are the Prelims at 5AM ET or what? That's what it said for a while on UFC.com now they changed it and it shows no Prelims but the whole main card starting at 8am ET.... Anyone?

**bjpenn85** · 10-25-19, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

So Are the Prelims at 5AM ET or what? That's what it said for a while on UFC.com now they changed it and it shows no Prelims but the whole main card starting at 8am ET.... Anyone?

17 hours and 33 min left

You need to go to prelims and then see the countdown from there.

Normally they have Early prelims, and the clock there is different from the prelims.

As far as i have seen, they have not changes the prelims for tomorrow, its 17 hours and 33 min to were locking and loading baby!