UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes (June 08, 2019)

[Teem]

Actually, I question Ivanov's fight IQ based on that fact that he has no takedowns or at least doesn't attempt them.

[turbozed]

Like Hill, Moraes, Ferg, and Petr Yan here.

Lots of value on Hill and Moraes atm. Slight value on Ferg and Yan.

[PaperTrail07]

Value tossing $1200 at $300......easy $300 maybe-sure but Value?

Like Hill, Moraes, Ferg, and Petr Yan here.

Lots of value on Hill and Moraes atm. Slight value on Ferg and Yan.

[bjpenn85]

Like Hill, Moraes, Ferg, and Petr Yan here.

Lots of value on Hill and Moraes atm. Slight value on Ferg and Yan.

I canceled my Cerrone bet, or hedged it out, and then i put 1 unit on Hill instead. Couldnt agree more.

I like Kattar and Bewon Lewis as well.

Shapes up to be a gigantic night, even with a loss or two, i doubt this isnt going to be one of the most profitable nights this year.

I hope i didnt jinx it

[Enfuego]

Micro w Rivera in there and besides that-Yes...so 2 Lotto tickeys...

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : H. Cejudo 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line +115 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Ferguson 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -135 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : T. Tuivasa 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -145 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : E. Wineland 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -130 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : B. Lewis 6/8/2019 6:00PM - (PST) Money Line -225 for Game

Risking : 50.00 To Win : 758.02 USD

.

Awesome, thanks. Good luck to us.

[Enfuego]

Like Hill, Moraes, Ferg, and Petr Yan here.

Lots of value on Hill and Moraes atm. Slight value on Ferg and Yan.

How is there value on Yan?

[PaperTrail07]

No doubt---if it comes down to 1-for the love of god-HEDGE LOL.....ive been on a streak of whiffing by 1 on my lotto's....

Awesome, thanks. Good luck to us.

[PaperTrail07]

The line was getting out of control IMO....its dropped to the -300 range and I expect it to stay there.....

How is there value on Yan?

[jacharron17]

55/45 Ferguson to win, 60/40 decision
55/45 Moraes to win, 55/45 decision.
52/48 Kowalkiewicz to win, 62/38 decision.
52/48 Sterling to win, 60/40 decision.

Those are my implied probabilities for this event. I see value on the Over on both Cejudo/Moraes, and Ferg/Cerrone.

[Thrilla]

Your hourly reminder: Henry Cejudo won a gold medal in the olympics!

[PaperTrail07]

Wineland Fight off? Nothing about it---line pulled and off the card on UFC...

[Retibol]

Will Ferguson be able to handle Cerrone's leg kicks? Ferguson is coming off a knee injury so that may play a factor...

The issue is,, Tony is very good against kickers
He puts tremendous pressure and never stops,
Almost impossible to throw a kick at him;

Check Barboza, Pettis fights

[PaperTrail07]

Agree but Lando ALMOST got him LOL...

The issue is,, Tony is very good against kickers
He puts tremendous pressure and never stops,
Almost impossible to throw a kick at him;

Check Barboza, Pettis fights

[Baraldsson]

Agree but Lando ALMOST got him LOL...

El Cucuy was really hanging in there for a while against Lando, still can't believe how well he recovered after nearly being KOd.

[PaperTrail07]

Why Tony is the GOAT....I really hope he comes out looking like himself....here is that fight-vredit to Big John for not stepping in.....have seen refs step in w less...

https://ok.ru/video/77623986693

El Cucuy was really hanging in there for a while against Lando, still can't believe how well he recovered after nearly being KOd.

[Baraldsson]

Why Tony is the GOAT....I really hope he comes out looking like himself....here is that fight-vredit to Big John for not stepping in.....have seen refs step in w less...

https://ok.ru/video/77623986693

Such a great fight, had completely forgotten the way Tony backed up towards the cage looking badly rocked (just after 4:00 on video) then immediately throws a spinning elbow. As you say, Paper, that's why he's the GOAT

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking Yan here. Got a few other fights that I'm thinking about as well.

[THE_RUDESTER]

Tony Ferguson Workout -CSO-

https://youtu.be/Qk_rGwGkzHg

[THE_RUDESTER]

Tony Ferguson

https://youtu.be/1VDnqt74QMk

Donald Cerrone

https://youtu.be/I99u6NBgLMk

[JC2008]

Liking Yan here. Got a few other fights that I'm thinking about as well.

What other leans do you have?

[turbozed]

Value tossing $1200 at $300......easy $300 maybe-sure but Value?

Yeah, I misspoke. At -335 range I don't think there's much value at all on Yan anymore. Played it a while back so haven't been paying attention to the movement.

[Hugo de Naranja]

What other leans do you have?

I like Moraes over Cejudo. Would love to see Cejudo get wrecked early. He is one of my least favorite fighters.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, I misspoke. At -335 range I don't think there's much value at all on Yan anymore. Played it a while back so haven't been paying attention to the movement.

Same. Got in from (-195) to (-260) when line opened.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cejudo and his coach are both arrogant clowns

[RussianMike]

I agree with you fully. I just think Cejudo isnt quite yet there when it comes to the striking. My concern is though, that Cejudo seems to make improvements fight by fight, hes trainer is talking about him at some time back, turned a corner and has ever since just become better and better to a ridiculous level. Often those rumours holds water, and as a potential Moraes better i instantly back of, so this may be a fight were im going to pass up i think.

But what a fight ladies and gentleman, this is really the pinnacle of sports competitors. Top shelf athletes, these bodies were made for sport, these gentlemans genes are pure excellence!!!Even with bad fight iq, bad trainers and subpar diet, these guys destiny is at the very top!!

That sounds crazy to me because if you watch his fights, I don't see him doing anything at all different in his fights now, that he wasn't doing back when he fought Reis, or even when he lost to Benevidez and DJ. He looks like the same fighter, but the fights seem to be going his way now.

[RussianMike]

Would just love to give a big shout out to whatever penetrating whale is out there keeping that Ferguson/Cerrone fight hovering anywhere near even money, when I know plenty of people still taking Ferguson at -250 if it got there. All you can eat on that shit, it's free money.

[RussianMike]

(as I often say), I'm pretty new to following UFC.... who beat Ferguson previously, and were they legit losses or flukey? I don't remember seeing him in my brief time. I've gotten to see Cerrone several times now and he hasn't lost, despite being a constant dog.

Tee up his fight against RDA and then get back to us, buddy.

[bjpenn85]

That sounds crazy to me because if you watch his fights, I don't see him doing anything at all different in his fights now, that he wasn't doing back when he fought Reis, or even when he lost to Benevidez and DJ. He looks like the same fighter, but the fights seem to be going his way now.

Especially between the DJ and the Benavidez fight, guy did looked much improved in the benavisez fight to many peoples surprise, especially me who had money on benavidez. He wasnt recognizable at all. After that the improvements have been there from fight to fight, but more subtle.

[Thrilla]

Your hourly reminder: Henry Cejudo won a gold medal in the olympics!

[Demonata]

I like Moraes over Cejudo. Would love to see Cejudo get wrecked early. He is one of my least favorite fighters.

Me too man. I can't stand him!! I hope moraes kicks his penetrating head off!!!

[turbozed]

I like Moraes over Cejudo. Would love to see Cejudo get wrecked early. He is one of my least favorite fighters.

Got a sizeable stake on Moraes around -115 so we're on the same page here.

Here's a great breakdown that someone sent me to look at. Think it hits a lot of the major points and is an entertaining read:

https://mmastudy.com/2019/06/03/cejudo-vs-moraes/

[magpie878]

Tee up his fight against RDA and then get back to us, buddy.

Not sure what you mean. I was asking who BEAT Ferguson and if those losses were legit or flukey.

I now see who beat him, but I know nothing else really.

[PaperTrail07]

Cejudo not getting the respect he deserves IMO.....guy looks freskishly roided LOL.....1 step ahead of the juice game....I expect him to overwhelm.....MM is the better standup but the pace cejudo will keep is going to be insanity....---Somehow the ferg fight needs to become 5 rounds...

Cejudo and his coach are both arrogant clowns

[PaperTrail07]

Also-the more I think of the Sterling-Munhoz fight, I just see Sterling having a hard time winning walking backwards the entire time....he is great with distance and will get in and out OK, but overall it should begin to look like he is running (round 2-3) and Munhoz will take over....this is an AMAZING fight IMO....it will take the Sterlings best performance yet to pull this off.....not saying he cant....but for +100 Munhoz is the side to be on IMo.......he should be the one that is -120......KO power as well and its always a possibility he KO's/TKO's sterling.....I also feel that if Sterling goes to the ground.....he may pull guard and look for subs rather than try to stand....could he land a sub-sure-but in a 3 round fight against a body type of Munhoz, not AS likely.....and that's a round down most of the time...

[Thrilla]

Me too man. I can't stand him!! I hope moraes kicks his penetrating head off!!!

Cejudo can rest his ballsack on your forehead and there is nothing you can do about it.