UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs. Lee (May 18, 2019)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Rafael dos Anjos vs Kevin Lee
Vicente Luque vs Derrick Krantz
Ian Heinisch vs Antonio Carlos Junior
Megan Anderson vs Felicia Spencer
Nik Lentz vs Charles Oliveira
Austin Hubbard vs Davi Ramos

ESPN+ 5:00 pm ET
Sijara Eubanks vs Aspen Ladd
Desmond Green vs Charles Jourdain
Michel Pereira vs Danny Roberts
Grant Dawson vs Mike Trizano
Patrick Cummins vs Ed Herman
Zak Cummings vs Trevin Giles
Julio Arce vs Julian Erosa

[Hugo de Naranja]

Magny out against Luque

[jacharron17]

I have the main event as 60/40 in favor of Kevin Lee. I think there is some value on Nik Lentz as well.

[turbozed]

Felicia Spencer vs Megan Anderson

Looks like I've made a rookie error when capping this fight when Megan peaked at +115. I took a look at Spencer's Tapology, saw some sub wins, saw she was a BJJ black belt on her instagram, then watched the first round of her last fight with Pam Sorenson, and noped right out. Had I continued watching, I would've gotten a great line on what looks to be a huge physical mismatch and great price for Anderson.

On paper, an undefeated BJJ black belt going 6-0 in Invicta would seem like a nightmare matchup for Megan Anderson, when the last time we saw any significant fight time of her she was pinned to the mat by Holly Holm for 3 rounds. Tape tells a different story.

First thing that you'll notice about Spencer is that she does not look at all like a featherweight, despite having fought there her whole pro career, and even having taken some LW and even WW fights in her amateur stint. Standing at only 5'6 and looking very soft, with a pronounced 'pear shaped' body, she looks smaller than some UFC BW. This only makes sense as there really aren't many true Invicta or UFC featherweights that cannot make BW. Megan Anderson and Cyborg may be the only two that maximize the weight limit. As a result, Spencer has been fighting other soft featherweights her size (including Sorenson, who is Spencer's latest and best win).

Megan, as we are all aware now, is a straight Amazon, an absolute unit standing at 6'0 and carrying around no fat. The size disparity is stark, but why not let these pictures do the talking:





Despite her size being a huge problem for her here, the biggest problem for Spencer is her very obvious poor athleticism, which should set a very hard ceiling for any success she may have against UFC level opponents. It's been noted by many that she is like a featherweight Sarah Moras, with her lack of athleticism, bad defense, and unstructured striking that features way too much spinning kicks. I'd argue that there's no need to specify 'featherweight' because Moras is actually taller than Spencer and actually be stronger than Spencer. For all her faults, Moras was able to land takedowns against Pudilova and Chiasson, winning the first 4 minutes of the 1st round in each fight before getting blasted.

While Moras can get some legit fighters to the mat, Spencer struggles to even land takedowns in nearly all of her fights. Often failing or being reversed in the effort. Her lack of strength is a huge liability and most of her successful takedowns have occurred along the fence with Spencer having to lock her hands and use 100% effort. In open mat attempts, she fails miserably (e.g., her second round attempt against Koselnyk who is one of the worst Invicta FW fighters). This is important because, despite Megan's grappling failures against Holm, Megan's clinch defense against the cage was surprisingly competent. Holly is one of the strongest girls in the UFC and was able to stick Cyborg to the fence. Megan did a good job getting a hook and controling the opposite side arm with wrist or bicep control. This same defense allowed Sorenson to neutralize Spencer's clinch, and Pam was able to punish her with knees to the body in the clinch. Spencer was forced to attempt sacrifice throws which several times resulted in her pulling Pam on top of her. I see Megan brutalizing Spencer along the cage if Spencer tries to bring the fight there.

I'm tempted to say that the Megan that entered the cage against Holly with sheer strength and power would be able to fight off Spencer's weak takedowns. It's happened to Felicia in the past. In her fight against Akeela Al-Hameed, a 0-0 fighter, Akeela's strength alone (girl is jacked) was enough to neutralize and reverse Spencer's grappling attempts numerous times. Luckily Al-Hameed made a ton of mistakes. But we should all expect a much better version of Anderson in the grappling department. First of all, Anderson won't be at all surprised by Spencer's gameplan like she was by wrestler Holm. Second, she's had the whole year to improve her grappling under The James Krause, with Megan herself stating that she had trained wrestling intensely for 5 months to prepare for Zingano. Now Megan has had a few more months to deal specifically with Spencer's obvious gameplan.

It's pretty obvious to anyone at first glance that this is going to be a striker versus grappler matchup, and that Megan would dominate at range. It's worth noting that Spencer does have a TKD black belt, and it shows in her fights as she spams high kicks and spinning shit at a high rate. However, Spencer's boxing is poor and her head movement non-existent, losing most exchanges to Pam Sorenson who was smaller than her. Against a girl with a 6 inch height and probably 6 inch reach advantage, who was able to hurt Holm within the span of a few exchanges, Spencer should get mauled. Spencer's 'defense' at range is basically to duck her head down and come charging in with her hands forward. While this somewhat worked against girls who close to and in front of her, this won't work well against Megan who will keep a much longer range, and has tools to deter rushes.

I don't know if Megan has been specifically training for Felicia here, but this 1-2 to draw out a rush and then throw the uppercut while backing up seems like exactly the thing that will punish Felicia for putting her head down and rushing forward looking for a TD.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BusPMLzD4Au/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

Without a way to reliably get Megan to the ground, Spencer's chances look pretty slim. Sure, anything can happen in a fight, and there's the outside shot of an opportunistic submission, but Spencer isn't really even a wizard on the ground. Spencer doesn't have good top control, and usually girls along the cage will just simply get up from under her. Spencer will often sacrifice position to go for loose sub attempts and back takes as well, not establishing position before attemping them. This will give Anderson opportunities to just power out of any bad positions she finds herself in. So a TD may not even equal a winning round for Spencer given the likelihood that she may have taken a lot of damage before hand and after.

At current odds, we are looking at Megan's odds of winning at 60%. I see them at 70% or more, meaning that anything under -200 still has value.

[bjpenn85]

I agree man. I was wiki capping this fight...i also sat the +115 and thought...man..this has to be wrong, went in to wiki cap the fight and thought ahhh for fakk sake, its a grappler...at -130 i watched tape and instantly was like fakk...thats 0.6 lost out of share lazyness.

I will never ever wiki cap like that again. Costly mistake.

Great effort man!

[Teem]

Very nice analysis, Turbozed. Definately taking Anderson. Thoughts on Ladd/Eubanks? I was going with Ladd. These two have fought before and Ladd won a decision but I haven't watched their first fight.

[TPowell]

Very nice analysis, Turbozed. Definately taking Anderson. Thoughts on Ladd/Eubanks? I was going with Ladd. These two have fought before and Ladd won a decision but I haven't watched their first fight.

Was a decent scrap and I think 1-1 going into the last round but I forget now. I think Eubanks has the type of style to frustrate Ladd as she's struggled with elite grapplers in the past

[Sanity Check]

Thoughts on Ladd/Eubanks?

Sijara "Queen of the Buffet Line" Eubanks.

She should fight Bethe @ 125 for her next.

Then they both can miss weight by 10 pounds and it'll be even.

[firekillex]

Sijara "Queen of the Buffet Line" Eubanks.

She should fight Bethe @ 125 for her next.

Then they both can miss weight by 10 pounds and it'll be even.

that gave me a good laugh

[magpie878]

I've not done very well with UFC lately, and had a few bigger losses in the last month or two.

I've somehow hit my last few bets, and I'm counting on you guys for some good advice here.

I always appreciate everyone's input, regardless. The 18th is my birthday and I'd like to win on UFC for once!

[bjpenn85]

I've not done very well with UFC lately, and had a few bigger losses in the last month or two.

I've somehow hit my last few bets, and I'm counting on you guys for some good advice here.


I always appreciate everyone's input, regardless. The 18th is my birthday and I'd like to win on UFC for once!

Theres really not a any typical good bets this weekend imo. Arce and oliveira are "locks", but their juiced up as a mf.

I take a shot at Megan Anderson, though.

But since there are so many close fights this may be a good event for livebetting.

[turbozed]

Very nice analysis, Turbozed. Definately taking Anderson. Thoughts on Ladd/Eubanks? I was going with Ladd. These two have fought before and Ladd won a decision but I haven't watched their first fight.

Ladd is the rightful favorite but the line seems way too wide to me. When they first fought, Eubanks was making every round close, but she just didn't have the tools to handle the pressure and volume.

Eubanks has sharpened up her striking by quite a bit since moving to Mark Henry's gym. She's shown longer combinations, goes to the body more often, added an uppercut to her game, stands her ground a bit more, added a dangerous headkick, and has timed some level change TDs with girls coming forward. Of course, Ladd is much more imposing than girls like Mueller and Roxy.

Ladd will have the size and strength advantage, which will be very bad for Eubanks if Ladd winds up in top position. But Ladd may be hesitant to shoot for TDs here because of Eubanks' bjj cred. So in a kickboxing match, I see this fight going pretty close, and Eubanks with her adjustments may find a way to eek out a decision. At +380, Eubanks decision was all that I considered here.

[Thrilla]

Event Background

The event will mark the promotion's first visit to Rochester, New York.^[1]

A welterweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael dos Anjos and former interim lightweight title challenger Kevin Lee has been slated to serve as the event headliner.^[3]

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was briefly linked to a welterweight matchup with Neil Magny at the event. However on March 28, dos Santos announced that he had not been contacted by the UFC about the match.^[4] Magny was instead scheduled to face Vicente Luque.^[5] In turn, Magny pulled out of the bout on May 13 due to testing positive for Di-Hydroxy-LGD-4033.^[6] He was replaced by promotional newcomer Derrick Krantz.<sup>[7]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Fi..._Anjos_vs._Lee</sup>

[Thrilla]

MMA Pros Pick

[turbozed]

Megan Anderson ML now in the -220 to -235 range. Looks like it might hit -250 after tomorrow's weigh-in. Hope ya'll got in earlier.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Megan Anderson ML now in the -220 to -235 range. Looks like it might hit -250 after tomorrow's weigh-in. Hope ya'll got in earlier.

Sure did. Let's get it Turbo!

[bjpenn85]

Megan Anderson ML now in the -220 to -235 range. Looks like it might hit -250 after tomorrow's weigh-in. Hope ya'll got in earlier.

as predicted boi!!!

[JIBBBY]

Part 1 - https://www.mmamania.com/2019/5/16/1...-rochester-mma

Part 2 - write ups -

145 lbs.: Megan Anderson vs. Felicia Spencer

Megan Anderson (8-3) — who brought a four-fight knockout streak and the Invicta Featherweight Title into UFC — stumbled out of the Octagon gate, withdrawing from a planned debut against Cris “Cyborg” and getting thoroughly outwrestled by Holly Holm afterward. She went on the face Cat Zingano at UFC 232, claiming victory in 61 seconds after a head kick inadvertently drove one of Anderson’s toes into Zingano’s eye (details).
She has knocked out five professional opponents and submitted another two.
Felicia Spencer (6-0) has not tasted defeat since losing her amateur debut in 2012, ending her run in the unpaid ranks at 5-1 and picking up a win over Macy Chiasson. “Feenom” has spent her entire professional career in Invicta, where she claimed the Featherweight title with a submission of Pam Sorenson in Nov. 2018.
She will give up six inches of height to her Australian foe.
First things first: Spencer is not a true Featherweight. She entered her last fight at 143.7 pounds and didn’t look particularly lean; she should easily be able to make 135 ... maybe even 125 with proper weight management. That’s an issue against the towering Anderson, who legitimately needs this weight class to be able to compete.
Spencer is, however, a terrific grappler while her two-round gas tank holds up, boasting slick wrestling technique and lovely transitions to the back. Anderson got torched on the mat by Holm, and while she did manage to avoid getting submitted, I’m not sure how much credit I can give her submission defense against someone with zero submission wins. Essentially, Anderson has to either catch Spencer on the way in, which is possible, survive at least a round on the bottom against a legit BJJ black belt, which is less so. Unless Anderson has made massive strides in her wrestling, Spencer muscles her way in for an early takedown and secures the rear naked choke soon after.
Prediction: Spencer via first-round submission
145 lbs.: Mike Trizano vs. Grant Dawson

Mike Trizano (8-0) — Team Stipe Miocic’s first Lightweight pick on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 27, stopped Thailand Clark and outclassed John Gunther in the house before scraping past Joe Giannetti at the Finale to claim the fabled six-figure contract. “The Lone Wolf” then faced Luis Pena, whom he was supposed to fight in the semifinals, and survived “Violent Bob Ross’s” back control to win a split decision at UFC Fight Night 139.
The Tiger Schulmann-trained product is one inch taller than Dawson, but will give up an inch of reach.
Grant Dawson (13-1) outclassed Adrian Diaz on “Contender Series” to earn himself a contract, but United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) issues kept him out of action for the next 19 months. He ultimately debuted in March with an entertaining decision over TUF veteran Julian Erosa in “The Prophet’s” first trip to the judges.
His nine professional submission victories include seven via (technical) knockout.
Dawson showed against Erosa that he’s still got room for improvement, even if one does attribute his issues to cage rust. Trizano is the sharper striker by far and will be “The Prophet’s” greatest test to date, but even considering all of that, it looks to be a rough evening for the TUF winner. While he came out victorious against Pena and Giannetti, both found success with their grappling, putting Trizano in some bad spots.
He got out of those bad spots, to be fair, but Dawson tends to finish people when given similar opportunities
Unlike Pena and Giannetti, Dawson wastes no time in getting his wrestling going, limiting Trizano’s ability to slow him down with leg kicks. I don’t see him stopping Dawson’s takedowns while the latter is fresh nor surviving his top game. Trizano joins castmate Brad Katona in getting his first L, absorbing ground-and-pound until he leaves his neck open.
Prediction: Dawson via first-round submission
155 lbs.: Des Green vs. Charles Jourdain

Des Green (22-8) debuted in UFC with an upset split decision over Josh Emmett, but struggled to find his footing, losing three of his next four to the likes of Rustam Khabilov, Michel Prazeres and Mairbek Taisumov. “The Predator” came up big with his back against the wall, however, pounding out Ross Pearson in Philadelphia less than two months ago.
“Air” Charles Jourdain (9-1) enjoyed an 8-2 amateur career before debuting in 2016 with a flying knee knockout. T.J. Laramie handed him his sole defeat in his sixth pro fight, but his current four-fight streak the claiming and one defense of the TKO Lightweight title.
Jourdain is one inch shorter than Green and faces a four-inch reach disadvantage.
Jourdain is an entertaining young fighter with a horrific style match up ahead of him. He’s a natural Featherweight with poor takedown defense going up against a stifling wrestler with the chin to weather Jourdain’s punching blitzes. If Josh Emmett and Mairbek Taisumov couldn’t fluster Green, I have my doubts that Jourdain could.
Jourdain admittedly did a better job of scrambling to his feet in his most recent fight, but he’s never faced a takedown threat like “The Predator.” Green’s size and wrestling carry him to a comfortable decision victory.
Prediction: Green via unanimous decision

[PaperTrail07]

Of course he predicts Anderson losing lol...

[PaperTrail07]

Surprised they found a replacement for Magny....HUGE HUGE HUGE opportunity for Krantz here......Luque going to smash him IMO....but respect for stepping in....

[turbozed]

Of course he predicts Anderson losing lol...

"SLICK WRESTLING TECHNIQUE"

Not sure what Felicia Spencer this guy is referring to but slick is the last word I'd use to describe her wrestling

[bjpenn85]

Of course he predicts Anderson losing lol...

Its a prediction you just skip. He obviously hasnt dont his research. If he told us how bad spencer was, all the issues that she has, + the physicality of Anderson, BUT he STILL went for spencer because of this and that, well then i had 100% taken his opinion seriously.

But he doesnnt tell us anything about the most critical aspects of this fight from a betting perspective...its kind of a sloppy breakdown.

Hes an mma journalist, and not a semi pro/ pro....i mean what can we expect?

He just doesnt care that much.

[PaperTrail07]

Right.....wtf was this guy watching to even make him think that....

"SLICK WRESTLING TECHNIQUE"

Not sure what Felicia Spencer this guy is referring to but slick is the last word I'd use to describe her wrestling

[PaperTrail07]

Oh I laugh at these all day.......I just cant believe he continues to spit out that garbage and post his record above like 80% of the winners aren't over -500 LOL....just wow.....everything you said is correct above BJ.......

Its a prediction you just skip. He obviously hasnt dont his research. If he told us how bad spencer was, all the issues that she has, + the physicality of Anderson, BUT he STILL went for spencer because of this and that, well then i had 100% taken his opinion seriously.

But he doesnnt tell us anything about the most critical aspects of this fight from a betting perspective...its kind of a sloppy breakdown.

Hes an mma journalist, and not a semi pro/ pro....i mean what can we expect?

He just doesnt care that much.

[JIBBBY]

Not all the MMAMANIA write ups are always spot on at times.. Patrick the writter does hit more often then not with his predictions though. These numbers don't lie..

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 66-33

[Wohlford]

Not all the MMAMANIA write ups are always spot on at times.. Patrick the writter does hit more often then not with his predictions though. These numbers don't lie..

Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2019: 66-33

That doesn't mean a thing if you don't account for what the odds were. A lot of big favorites in there right?

[turbozed]

Its a prediction you just skip. He obviously hasnt dont his research. If he told us how bad spencer was, all the issues that she has, + the physicality of Anderson, BUT he STILL went for spencer because of this and that, well then i had 100% taken his opinion seriously.

But he doesnnt tell us anything about the most critical aspects of this fight from a betting perspective...its kind of a sloppy breakdown.

Hes an mma journalist, and not a semi pro/ pro....i mean what can we expect?

He just doesnt care that much.

He probably did the same thing I did at first which was go off my memory of Anderson and then watch the first round of the Felicia vs Sorenson fight. Took a couple of older fights for me to see Spencer's lack of wrestling and physicality issues.

[JIBBBY]

That doesn't mean a thing if you don't account for what the odds were. A lot of big favorites in there right?

He's picking how the fight will end.. Prop odds are usually always set at +odds...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Oh I laugh at these all day.......I just cant believe he continues to spit out that garbage and post his record above like 80% of the winners aren't over -500 LOL....just wow.....everything you said is correct above BJ.......

The man did correctly pick Kang to submit Ishihara in R1 as you should remember

[bjpenn85]

Right.....wtf was this guy watching to even make him think that....

He just wiki capped it. Cant blame him, hours of research gets him nowhere. Lets make this write up already an go out an take a coffe and an icecream in the sunny weather, he said, and so he did....

[bjpenn85]

He probably did the same thing I did at first which was go off my memory of Anderson and then watch the first round of the Felicia vs Sorenson fight. Took a couple of older fights for me to see Spencer's lack of wrestling and physicality issues.

Yup. But hes not this sloppy all the time. But thats why you cant trust mma journalist like him, suddenly they slip badly, like in this situation. And many of the mma journalist, they havent lost money. That teach you not to spend your money like a drunken sailor! He wont get punished for a sloppy breakdowns, while it can cost us potentially several hundreds of dollars..

[bjpenn85]

That doesn't mean a thing if you don't account for what the odds were. A lot of big favorites in there right?

It does. Maybe profit wise he gets to 0 dollars won in profit. Have to beat the odds, not your grandmothers favourite horse whos priced at -800.

[PaperTrail07]

Guess a broken clock is even right twice a day lol....

The man did correctly pick Kang to submit Ishihara in R1 as you should remember

[richie360]

He's picking how the fight will end.. Prop odds are usually always set at +odds...

Surely the 66-33 record is just the right fight winner right?

[PaperTrail07]

100%...…-----


Or close to it jibbbs…..

Surely the 66-33 record is just the right fight winner right?