Originally posted by bjpenn85
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Agree about the cardio. That's probably Hernandez's biggest advantage. He kept a high pace for 5 grueling grappling heavy rounds vs. Allen and did a very good job of taking no short rests in the transitions. He was always working. BUT... he gives up bad positions way too often and Perez is opportunistic with subs and obviously has a strong squeeze as we saw with his arm triangle from bottom vs. Heinisch. I think Hernandez could get caught if he's not cleaner than his fight vs. Allen. Add in the Brazil factor with judges and the fact that Perez has never lost in Brazil and Hernandez has never fought out of the country and I like it for a little value.Comment -
Wow that's quite a limb you're out on /s.Originally posted by UncleChaelComment -
Anybody here know of a fantasy pickem thing the UFC website used to have, or something similar to it? ESPN may come out with one some time but I'm impatient. I miss playing that pickem game with friends and smashing them. Let me know if you guys know of one!Comment -
Would love to see Teymur hit the +110/120 range so I can arb.Comment -
I don't know where to start with this card? Lol. Let the capping begin.
Start with the MMA MANIA prelim write ups I guess.. This is only Part 1. Will bump and add to this post when other write ups come out.
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135 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Despite being known for his grappling, Ricardo Ramos (12-1) scored one of 2017’s most impressive knockouts with a spinning back elbow knockout of Aiemann Zahabi (watch it), winning “Performance of the Night” and extending his UFC record to 2-0. He wasn’t quite as dazzling against Kyung Ho Kang, but nonetheless walked away with a decision over the Korean grinder in Oct. 2018.
He has scored six submissions as a professional.
Said Nurmagomedov (12-1) put together an impressive run on the Russian circuit before joining UFC, losing only to future Octagon competitor Magomed Bibulatov along the way. He dropped to Flyweight for his UFC debut, where he eked out a controversial decision over Justin Scoggins in July 2018.
He will give up one inch of height and two inches of reach to Ramos.
This may just be me trying to rewrite history after unsuccessfully picking against Ramos three fights in a row, but I’m still not all that impressed by him. I’m confident Michinori Tanaka could have beaten him if he’d just focused on his wrestling and I had Ramos losing to Kang. Nurmagomedov, boasting stout takedown defense and fancy long-range kicks, should be able to outwork him.
Ramos will struggle to find himself in top position, and though he has the better boxing, will have issues getting past Nurmagomedov’s kicking arsenal to land them. The size difference is a concern, but Nurmagomedov has had plenty of success at 135 pounds. He holds his own in the clinch wrestling exchanges and lands enough spinning nonsense to take a narrow victory.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Magomed Bibulatov vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Magomed Bibulatov (14-1) joined UFC as one of the top Flyweights on the planet, and his prospects were not dimmed by his workmanlike decision over Jenel Lausa in his Octagon debut. Things went off the rails in his second appearance, however, courtesy of a savage hook from John Moraga at UFC 216.
This will be his first fight in almost 15 months because of a back injury.
Brazil’s Rogerio Bontorin (14-1) went unbeaten in his first twelve bouts before suffering a submission loss to UFC veteran Michinori Tanaka in October of 2017. After a bounce-back knockout victory, he joined “Contender Series: Brasil,” surviving a near-knockout to submit Gustavo Gabriel.
Eleven of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Bontorin is a stud prospect, but this seems a little beyond him. Bibulatov’s superior wrestling will allow him to dictate where the fight goes, and the Brazilian doesn’t seem to have enough power to repeat Moraga’s upset. This will boil down to Bibulatov’s top game against Bontorin’s bottom game, and I have quite a bit more faith in the former.
Bibulatov is still an elite Flyweight who could make a real run at the title now that Demetrious Johnson is out of the picture. His chin’s a question, but not one Bontorin is equipped to answer. Bibulatov uses regular takedowns and conservative top control to cruise to victory.
Prediction: Bibulatov via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Geraldo de Freitas vs. Felipe Colares
Geraldo de Freitas (11-4) opened his career 5-4, including losses in two of his first three bouts, before embarking on his current six-fight win streak. Said streak includes a 2017 decision over Luciano Benicio that earned “Espartano” the Shooto Brazil Bantamweight title.
He has submitted five opponents and knocked out another four.
Felipe Colares has gone the distance just once as a professional, racking up six submission wins and two (technical) knockouts. “Cabocao” has spent his last three bouts in the Jungle Fight promotion, where he claimed the Featherweight belt in Sept. 2017.
This will be his first fight since then.
I’m going to be honest: I can’t find squat for Freitas save for some grappling and a not-terribly-enlightening highlight of one of his recent fights. He’s had some bouts in Shooto Brazil, which has an archive on Fight Pass, but his first appearance was at Shooto Brazil 72 and the archive ends at 69.
Nice, but inconvenient.
I’ve got a better notion of Colares, a submission artist who makes up for weak entries with a lovely array of chain wrestling. Neither man seems terribly adept on the feet, so I expect plenty of fun ground work. Seeing as Colares, a true Featherweight, prefers to do his work against the fence and Freitas doesn’t have the best cage awareness, I say “Cabocão” spends enough time in top position or grinding on the fence to win the decision.
Prediction: Colares via unanimous decisionComment -
Just remember to double down on Uncles picks when your losing come main event.Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
I use MMAPlaygroundOriginally posted by TeemComment -
Thanks! I'll check that out.Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Liking Aldo, Teymur, and Assuncao.Comment -
like aldo, assuncao, but concerned for teymur as olieveira has good takedowns. Teymur still is very orientated around not getting takendown, superb distance management, and have a good trackrecord with tdd, have he ever being taken down. And in this fight he will probably come in even more orientated by not leaving a chance for Oliveira to be taken down + Oliveira very fast get mentally broken down when things doesnt go his way. Perhaps he only has round 1 to go off before he starts loosing faith. Although he did attempt takedowns in the Giagos fight until he got it in round 2. Only one takedown may be suffice for Oliveira. I find this matchup a bit risky but Oliveira round 1 is +300 so ill guess one can compensate for the risk with that prop or go safer with oliveira by sub.Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Teymur was my initial lean but I’ve had to back off that a bit. Last person Oliveira couldn’t take to the mat was Max. His past 8 fights he has taken everyone down and in his recent run at LW he has looked dominant and very strong early with his TDs. If he takes Teymur down even one time, isn’t it just 50/50 from there whether or not he gets the sub?Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
Originally posted by JIBBBYI don't know where to start with this card? Lol. Let the capping begin.
Start with the MMA MANIA prelim write ups I guess.. This is only Part 1. Will bump and add to this post when other write ups come out.
135 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos vs. Said Nurmagomedov
Despite being known for his grappling, Ricardo Ramos (12-1) scored one of 2017’s most impressive knockouts with a spinning back elbow knockout of Aiemann Zahabi (watch it), winning “Performance of the Night” and extending his UFC record to 2-0. He wasn’t quite as dazzling against Kyung Ho Kang, but nonetheless walked away with a decision over the Korean grinder in Oct. 2018.
He has scored six submissions as a professional.
Said Nurmagomedov (12-1) put together an impressive run on the Russian circuit before joining UFC, losing only to future Octagon competitor Magomed Bibulatov along the way. He dropped to Flyweight for his UFC debut, where he eked out a controversial decision over Justin Scoggins in July 2018.
He will give up one inch of height and two inches of reach to Ramos.
This may just be me trying to rewrite history after unsuccessfully picking against Ramos three fights in a row, but I’m still not all that impressed by him. I’m confident Michinori Tanaka could have beaten him if he’d just focused on his wrestling and I had Ramos losing to Kang. Nurmagomedov, boasting stout takedown defense and fancy long-range kicks, should be able to outwork him.
Ramos will struggle to find himself in top position, and though he has the better boxing, will have issues getting past Nurmagomedov’s kicking arsenal to land them. The size difference is a concern, but Nurmagomedov has had plenty of success at 135 pounds. He holds his own in the clinch wrestling exchanges and lands enough spinning nonsense to take a narrow victory.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Magomed Bibulatov vs. Rogerio Bontorin
Magomed Bibulatov (14-1) joined UFC as one of the top Flyweights on the planet, and his prospects were not dimmed by his workmanlike decision over Jenel Lausa in his Octagon debut. Things went off the rails in his second appearance, however, courtesy of a savage hook from John Moraga at UFC 216.
This will be his first fight in almost 15 months because of a back injury.
Brazil’s Rogerio Bontorin (14-1) went unbeaten in his first twelve bouts before suffering a submission loss to UFC veteran Michinori Tanaka in October of 2017. After a bounce-back knockout victory, he joined “Contender Series: Brasil,” surviving a near-knockout to submit Gustavo Gabriel.
Eleven of his 13 stoppage wins have come by submission.
Bontorin is a stud prospect, but this seems a little beyond him. Bibulatov’s superior wrestling will allow him to dictate where the fight goes, and the Brazilian doesn’t seem to have enough power to repeat Moraga’s upset. This will boil down to Bibulatov’s top game against Bontorin’s bottom game, and I have quite a bit more faith in the former.
Bibulatov is still an elite Flyweight who could make a real run at the title now that Demetrious Johnson is out of the picture. His chin’s a question, but not one Bontorin is equipped to answer. Bibulatov uses regular takedowns and conservative top control to cruise to victory.
Prediction: Bibulatov via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Geraldo de Freitas vs. Felipe Colares
Geraldo de Freitas (11-4) opened his career 5-4, including losses in two of his first three bouts, before embarking on his current six-fight win streak. Said streak includes a 2017 decision over Luciano Benicio that earned “Espartano” the Shooto Brazil Bantamweight title.
He has submitted five opponents and knocked out another four.
Felipe Colares has gone the distance just once as a professional, racking up six submission wins and two (technical) knockouts. “Cabocao” has spent his last three bouts in the Jungle Fight promotion, where he claimed the Featherweight belt in Sept. 2017.
This will be his first fight since then.
I’m going to be honest: I can’t find squat for Freitas save for some grappling and a not-terribly-enlightening highlight of one of his recent fights. He’s had some bouts in Shooto Brazil, which has an archive on Fight Pass, but his first appearance was at Shooto Brazil 72 and the archive ends at 69.
Nice, but inconvenient.
I’ve got a better notion of Colares, a submission artist who makes up for weak entries with a lovely array of chain wrestling. Neither man seems terribly adept on the feet, so I expect plenty of fun ground work. Seeing as Colares, a true Featherweight, prefers to do his work against the fence and Freitas doesn’t have the best cage awareness, I say “Cabocão” spends enough time in top position or grinding on the fence to win the decision.
Prediction: Colares via unanimous decision
Part 2 -
185 lbs.: Anthony Hernandez vs. Markus Perez
Anthony Hernandez (6-0) dispatched his first five professional opponents in less than one round apiece before going the distance in victory in his LFA debut. “Fluffy” needed just 40 seconds to destroy Jordan Wright on “Contender Series,” but a failed drug test for marijuana turned it into a No Contest.
All four of his submission wins have come by guillotine.
Markus Perez (10-2) pulled off an impressive submission of Ian Heinisch to earn the LFA Middleweight title and a spot in UFC, where he lost an entertaining decision to Eryk Anders in his debut. “Maluko” bounced back with a submission over James Bochnovic six months later, but came up short against Andrew Sanchez in Lincoln.
Though he is one inch taller than Hernandez, he will give up two inches of reach.
Perez is a tricky bastard, and I mean that in only the most complimentary of ways. His fight with Anders was a Genki Sudo-esque spectacle, complete with sneakily devastating grappling. I’m just not sure he can consistently apply that ground prowess enough to make a real run towards the top, which could prove fatal against a strong wrestler in Hernandez.
“Fluffy” is the bigger hitter of the two and should have the better positional control on the mat. Perez is dangerous, but Hernandez’s punching onslaughts, top control and guillotine threat should earn him the win.
Prediction: Hernandez via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Mara Romero Borella vs. Taila Santos
Mara Romero Borella (11-5) extended her unbeaten streak to seven in her UFC debut, pulling off an upset submission of Kalindra Faria at UFC 216. She struggled with Katlyn Chookagian’s output her next time out, losing a decision in one of the weirder fights in recent memory.
This will be her first fight in more than one year.
Taila Santos (15-0) racked up 12 stoppages in her first 14 fights, 10 of them knockouts and all but one coming in the first round. She was a bit more reserved on “Contender Series,” where she used a stiff jab and hard leg kicks to take a decision over Estefani Almeida.
She stands two inches shorter than Borella at 5’4.”
You may not be surprised to hear that Santos’ record is deceiving; only four of the women she’s fought had winning records and she went the distance against three of them. She does look like she’s got the skills, though, particularly with one of the division’s best jabs.
She could cruise past Borella without issue if she just stays on her feet.
If Borella can get her wrestling going, she can get the submission without too much issue. Santos showed some decent hips on the Contender Series, though, and should be able to repeat her efforts with patient sprawl-and-brawling.
Prediction: Santos via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Thiago Alves vs. Max Griffin
Once the terror of the Welterweight division, Thiago Alves (22-13) finds himself just 1-4 since his ridiculous comeback knockout of Jordan Mein. “The Pitbull” was last seen in May 2018, following up a grievous knockout loss to Curtis Millender with a surprisingly competitive decision defeat against unbeaten Alexey Kunchenko.
Twelve of his 14 stoppage victories have come by form of knockout.
Max Griffin (14-5) — who had struggled with the power of Elizeu “Capoeira” in his “Fight of the Night” defeat — surprised most with his one-sided victory over Mike Perry four months later. He went on to face the rising Curtis Millender, ultimately losing a decision to the towering “Curtious.”
He is two inches taller than Alves and will have a six-inch reach advantage.
The sad thing about Alves’ decline is that the technique is still there ... he’s just not fast or durable enough to make it work anymore. Griffin is a quality Welterweight, but the Alves of yore would tear him to pieces.
Too bad he’s not the one fighting, though.
Alves is going to have tons of trouble getting past Griffin’s reach, especially since he can’t walk through incoming fire with confidence anymore. Alves could, theoretically, leg kick and counter his way to a classic “Pitbull” victory. More likely, Griffin clocks him on the way in for a quick finish.
Prediction: Griffin via first-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Junior Albini vs. Jair Rozenstruik
Junior Albini (14-4) came out of nowhere to knockout spoiler Timothy Johnson in his Octagon debut, winning “Performance of the Night” in the process. He has since lost two straight, a sedate decision against Andrei Arlovski and an Ezekiel choke courtesy of Alexey Oleinik.
He has knocked out and submitted six men apiece, 11 in the first round.
Jair Rozenstruik (6-0) put together a 76-6 record as a kickboxer, including 64 knockouts, and has knocked out five of his six mixed martial arts (MMA) opponents. In his biggest fight to date, he took on unbeaten Andrey Kovalev in Rizin and took home a split decision.
He replaces the injured Dmitry Sosnovskiy on short notice.
Albini is one of the biggest men in UFC and has legit power — he really should be doing better than he is. His size advantage and Rozenstruik’s inexperience on the mat gives him a clear avenue to victory, but if he comes in with the same torpor that he did against Arlovski, Rozenstruik is going to eat him alive on the feet.
Even beyond that self-sabotage, Albini is facing a hard 180 in terms of opponents, going from the all-wrestling-all-the-time Sosnovskiy to a kickboxing veteran. Plus, he hasn’t really been the takedown type in the Octagon. So long as Rozenstruik doesn’t grease again and get disqualified, he tears apart his lumbering foe early in the first round.
Prediction: Rozenstruik via first-round knockoutComment -
^ hoping that write up is way off about the Albini/Rozenstruik matchup. I’m heavy Albini. #TeamDiaperComment -
What are you banking on, Albini take it to the mat or outstriking Roz?Originally posted by ShagdogyComment -
I think he can win anywhere as long as he doesn’t get KO’d. Albini has shown a decent chin and I’m not sold on the overwhelming power of Rozenstruik. On the feet, Albini out lands Roz 2-1 IMO. He’s faster, more crisp, and throws better variety. On the mat should be a clear advantage for Albini if he can land the TD (a bit of a question mark). Clinch control I’m banking on Albini with his size and cage experience (both UFC fight experience and literal fighting inside of an actual cage experience). Cardio should be a clear edge to Albini especially given the short notice for Rozenstruik. Camp/level of training goes to Albini as well. He’s not the one training out of the basement of a Marriot in Aruba. And finally the Brazilian judges won’t favor Roz like they apparently did in his one decision win which I think he easily could have lost. Rozenstruik looks very scary on paper but I don’t believe he’s up to the task here, even if the task is a grown man in a diaper. Albini is young and improving and surprisingly athletic for his size. I think he styles on Roz wherever this fight takes place, only losing if he gets his lights put out by one wrong shot. At pretty much even odds give me the guy with every path to victory except one punch KO. Albini has also never been KO’d for what it’s worth.Originally posted by bjpenn85Comment -
Interesting LM in all of these fights.Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
Kudos if you got Aldo and Assuncao early. Teymur went from fairly heavy fav. to almost a pick em, currently sitting at -105.
Teymur was almost above plus money early in the week, interesting to see what happens to that line of the day of the weigh in. If you can change your mind and back Olivera, maybe you can move the line to plus money for Teymur so I can freakin arb.Comment -
Loving moicano, rising star, height and reach against Aldo, ( just like Holloway and McGregor) got a really good jab, Aldo been talking about finishing his career, Moicano all day.Comment -
Not that sold on Diaper man. He's facing a stand up fighter with a good kickboxing record.. I'm fading Diaper boy myself in this one... Albini has lost his last 2 fights..Originally posted by Shagdogy
Facing an undefeated big black boy that can bang.. https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jair...nstruik-102803
1933 Rozenstruik wins by TKO/KO +177 Comment -
I did get Aldo and Assuncao early but also got Teymur before he came back to dog odds.Originally posted by HurlSweatPantsComment -
Magic can land a head kick at any range, it comes at you like a drop of dime, and when it hits, it's over. Magic is hard to bet against imo.Comment -
Over 1.5 at -148 for the Lyman Good and Demian Maia fight is great value.Comment -
#TeamDiaperOriginally posted by ShagdogyComment -
Albini lost to Arlovski and then Oleinik. He couldn’t outpoint Arlovski and got subbed like everyone does when Oleinik gets it on the mat. Neither is representative of what will happen in this matchup though, and at least both of those guys are UFC level competition. Who has Bigi Boy fought? Has he ever fought in a cage? Who does he train with in Aruba’s Marriot? I’m prepared to be wrong with this pick given the amount of pushback I’ve seen against Albini, but I’m hoping what I’m seeing is right and I can just thank you all for keeping the Albini line nice for me.Originally posted by JIBBBYComment -
Biggest concern in backing Albini is his lack of finishing power. He may just give Roz one too many opportunities to hunt for that finish and eventually find it in Black Beast fashion.Comment -
Don't get me wrong, Moraes is a great fighter but I think the value is on Assuncao. He's the better grappler, better roundwinner, and more likely to make adjustments. I think this is a Pick 'Em fight so (+170) on a side is definitely appealing. Assuncao is also 11-1 at Bantamweight in the UFC.Originally posted by UncleChaelComment -
When you lose 2 fights in row and you are fighting a big scary black man that can strike I tend to think doubt creeps in.. Good luck Shag gotta fade Diaper man.. Always bet on black comes into play here me tinks buddy..Originally posted by Shagdogy
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Assuncao is very underrated but 11-1 i think he lost against TJ the first time and that Moraes fight was a coin toss i thought Marlon won though... i think Marlon has got rid of those UFC jitters and is really looking like a beast but Assuncao is super tough this could be a close fight again probably a decisionComment -
Moraes looked pretty much perfect in his last two fights. Good luck.Comment -
He is super dangerous for sure. Love his kicks.Originally posted by UncleChaelComment -
Perez's problems in the UFC have been that he's always been undersized, and has been relatively short notice (less than a month) for every single of his fights. Here, he won't have that problem as it looks like Hernandez might be even smaller than him and can make WW, and Perez has finally had a full camp. Allen is a good grappler, but made a ton of mistakes in that 5 rounder that I don't expect Perez to make (failing to GnP in dominant positions, losing position for low percentage sub attempts).Originally posted by Shagdogy
Hernandez does look like the sharper striker, but Perez's left kicks at range are surprisingly fast and accurate. It should also keep Hernandez's right hand attached to his body. I think the striking disparity will be less of an issue here because Hernandez punches himself into the clinch in almost all of his fights, and the clinch is where he seems to have a lot of issues due to his lack of grappling physicality. Perez, on the other hand, was holding his own clinching with strong and big wrestlers like Sanchez. This eventually wore down his cardio but should be less of a problem against a smaller, weaker Hernandez, especially with a full camp fighting at home now.
I like Perez here, and took some ML, SNA, sub, +3.5 for small. If I had taped this when Perez was +200 ML, I probably would've gone bigger. Another lesson to not procrastinate.Comment -
Also, some argues that hernandez striking will be a problem, but defensively he did a decent job against erik anders. So he likely wont get KOed and probably not submitted. So +3.5 sounds reasonable considering that aspect.Originally posted by turbozedComment -
Parlaying props at + odds with this event.. Need a big parlay hit.. Gotta away from that this year.. 3 and 4 team parlays but back on it now for 20 bucks a pop... I'm gonna try 5 of them..Comment -
knows the point game too.....like him for sure...Originally posted by Hugo de NaranjaComment -
I love that we are seeing things the same. Hope we’re right.Originally posted by turbozedComment -
agree....hate laying juice on it.....lean moraes but hope line gets closerOriginally posted by firekillexComment
