Yea 10 am pacific time sunday morning fs1
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When i see line drops like this something tell me the books know something about Wonderboys health and we don't. I'll passComment -
Write ups coming in.. MMA MANIA -
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170 lbs.: Claudio Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
After suffering a disqualification loss in his professional mixed martial arts (MMA) debut, Claudio Silva (11-1) worked his way to UFC with eight stoppages in his next nine fights, six of them in the first round. His UFC career has seen him out-grapple Brad Scott and take a contentious decision over Leon Edwards.
Thanks to multiple injuries, this will be the first fight for “Hannibal” since Nov. 2014.
Two unsuccessful runs on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) weren’t enough to dissuade Nordine Taleb (14-4), who has won three of his last four and fought Santiago Ponzinibbio to an extremely competitive decision in that lone loss. His latest win was arguably his biggest yet, a 59-second demolition of Danny Roberts that earned him “Performance of the Night.”
He stands two inches taller than Silva and will have three inches of reach.
One would think that UFC would give Taleb at least a fringe contender at this point, but instead he gets a gimme that will do nothing for his stock. Silva is one of the most one-dimensional grapplers in UFC, absolutely hopeless on the feet and not terribly adept with his takedowns. He barely beat an extremely green Edwards and was getting eaten up by Scott in their stand up exchanges.
Oh, and he’s been out for 2.5 years.
Taleb’s exponentially better than Silva on the feet and is more than capable of stuffing his takedowns all night long. He sprawls-and-brawls his way to a decisive victory, possibly securing a late stoppage.
Prediction: Taleb via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Dan Kelly vs. Tom Breese
Despite his age and knees that look fit to snap at any moment, Dan Kelly (13-3) opened his UFC career 6-1, doing so as an underdog in every single bout. A 76-second knockout loss to Derek Brunson stopped him in his tracks, after which he lost a snoozer to Elias Theodorou in Nov. 2017.
The Judo Olympian has submitted five professional opponents and knocked out another three.
Tom Breese (10-1) made his way to the Octagon on the strength of his ground game, which netted him seven finishes in seven fights, but proved his well-roundedness with knockouts of Luiz Dutra and Cathal Pendred in his first two Octagon appearances. After taking a decision over Keita Nakamura, Breese took on Sean Strickland at UFC 199 and lost a controversial split decision.
This will be his Middleweight debut and his first fight in nearly two years.
It’s impossible not to love Dan Kelly, but I’ve got to be realistic here. Breese is a terrible match up for him even with almost 24 months of cage rust. Breese is three inches taller than Kelly and has just as much reach, not to mention the skills to actually use that length to great effect. Worse, he’s a strong wrestler in his own right and packs more power than Kelly on the feet.
Kelly faces an uphill battle in the stand up and he’s going to struggle to get the clinch he needs to score takedowns. In short, Breese chews him up with one-two combinations for a one-sided decision victory.
Prediction: Breese via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Brad Scott vs. Carlo Pedersoli Jr.
Brad Scott (11-5) — Welterweight runner-up on TUF: “The Smashes” — elected to drop back to 170 pounds after going 3-3 as a UFC middleweight and suffering a knockout loss to Jack Hermansson in his most recent appearance. “The Bear” was set to face Jack Marshman, also making his Welterweight debut — in March before the Welshman botched his weight cut and had to withdraw.
He has knocked out and submitted five opponents apiece.
Italy’s Carlo Pedersoli Jr. (10-1) has not lost since his fourth professional fight, stopping four of his next seven opponents. His most recent victory was his biggest, a split decision over former UFC competitor Nicolas Dalby just one month ago.
He steps in for the injured Salim Touahri on little more than one week’s notice.
Pedersoli is boatloads of fun to watch, mixing aggressive karate with viciously slick grappling, but these aren’t ideal circumstances for his debut. He’s on a four-week turnaround after a grueling fight and is stepping up in weight.
That said, Scott’s been consistently underwhelming in UFC. His three Octagon victories came over Michael Kuiper, Dylan Andrews and Scott Askham, none of whom are currently on the roster. Hell, Askham nearly beat him on one leg. Pedersoli has the better striking variety and is dangerous enough on the mat to keep “The Bear” honest. Pedersoli lands enough heavy kicks and threatens enough submissions to earn a narrow win.
Prediction: Pedersoli Jr. via unanimous decision
125 lbs.: Molly McCann vs. Gillian Robertson
Molly McCann (7-1) — the delightfully nicknamed “Meatball” -- last tasted defeat in her second professional fight, since which she has stopped three of six opponents with strikes. She last fought in February, winning the Cage Warriors women’s Flyweight title with a second-round stoppage of Bryony Tyrell.
She will give up two inches of height to Gillian Robertson (4-2).
Robertson — representing Team Justin Gaethje on TUF 26 — fell to No. 2-ranked Barb Honchak in the Round of 16. She found quite a bit more success at the Finale, though, submitting teammate and No. 8-seed Emily Whitmire via first-round armbar.
“The Savage” went 9-2 as an amateur before debuting professionally in 2016.
McCann is most certainly a welcome addition to the division. She’s a dangerous boxer with legitimate power and a mean streak to match — if you’ve got Fight Pass, her Cage Warrior bouts are well worth watching. Robertson should give us a good idea of her current capabilities, as the former’s wrestling and submissions are a legitimate threat to the occasionally overaggressive “Meatball.”
This match up boils down to McCann’s takedown defense and scrambling ability, as this is her fight to lose if she keeps it on the feet. I say she does, overwhelming Robertson en route to a mid-round technical knockout finish.
Prediction: McCann via secondround technical knockout
185 lbs.: Elias Theodorou vs. Trevor Smith
Elias Theodorou (14-2) has put together a 6-2 UFC record overall since first stepping into the Octagon four years ago for his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Nations” fight with countryman Sheldon Westcott. He was last seen beating Dan Kelly by decision to rebound from a loss to Brad Tavares.
He is two inches shorter than “Hot Sauce,” though their reaches are identical.
Trevor Smith (15-7) put a 2-3 UFC start behind him to win three of his last four fights, including upsets of Joe Gigliotti and Chris Camozzi. Injury scrapped a planned bout with Ramazan Emeev, making this his first fight in 364 days.
Nine of his 15 wins have come by submission, though he hasn’t stopped an opponent since 2012.
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Theodorou is a handsome devil, but God damn is he a chore to watch. His kicks have no power, his boxing is underwhelming, and he has zero inclination to push himself in pursuit of a finish. I doubt this fight will be any more entertaining than “The Spartan’s” other efforts, which actually works against him, as Smith is a big, relentless wrestler who will keep advancing as long as he stays conscious.
Smith is the sort of gritty bastard who can royally frustrate anyone without the pop to crack his chin, a category that includes Theodorou. I’ll bite the bullet and say Smith scrapes by him in a grindfest.
Prediction: Smith via split decision
135 lbs.: Gina Mazany vs. Lina Lansberg
Gina Mazany (5-1) made her first bit at UFC stardom on TUF 18, where she lost to Julianna Pena in the elimination round. Despite splitting her next two bouts, including a rapid submission loss to Sara McMann in UFC, she got another shot in the Octagon, defeating ** Yanan in Shanghai.
“Danger” will have three inches of reach on Lansberg.
Lina Lansberg (7-3) had the unenviable task of facing “Cyborg” Santos in her UFC debut and ultimately succumbed to her foe’s power in the second round. She got back on track with a decision over Lucie Pudilova, fighting through grotesque eye swelling to do so, but suffered a ground-and-pound stoppage loss to Aspen Ladd in Oct. 2017.
She has stopped four professional opponents with strikes, two of them in the first round.
Related
Video: Starving, Depleted Cyborg Is Still Huge
I’ll admit to being a tad underwhelmed by “The Elbow Princess” in UFC, but I think this is a winnable fight for her. Mazany isn’t a great takedown artist and doesn’t have the tightest top control, meaning they’ll spend a significant portion of this fight in the clinch.
As you might have guessed from her nickname, Lansberg is pretty good there.
At 36, Lansberg doesn’t have enough time to make a real run at the division elite. Luckily for her, Mazany doesn’t number among them. Lansberg punishes her with knees and elbows inside to take the decision
Prediction: Lansberg via unanimous decision
Current UFC “Prelims” Prediction Record for 2018: 67-31Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-23-18, 01:16 PM.Comment -
Hyped to see your write up for the main event, Jibby!Comment -
I don't really have a write up for the main.. That fight i really have no clue who will win? Wonderboy tough with his peekaboo karate style, on the flip Darren Till undefeated and tough also..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Darren-Till-73436
I'm actually slightly leaning Wonder boy right now and maybe by decision, Wonderboy keeps distance and fights cautious.. Has big fight experience.. That's why I think it might go the distance and Wonder maybe winning on points.. Till has a chance at the KO if he fights like he did against Cowboy though..
I don't even have any clear cut hedge angles as both can get the KO in this fight.. Very tricky fight to bet in my opinion!!!! No clear winner..
Wonderboy has faced better competition but Till look liked a world beater in his last fight destruction of Cowboy Cerrone..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Darren-Till-73436
Maybe Wonderboy by decision for small might be my only play.. This fight troubles me the most on this card.. NO LIE...
The current odds reflect this as well and they are pretty much spot on IMO...
UFC Fight Night 130 - Welterweight 5 rounds - Echo Arena - Liverpool, England - FS1 Sun 5/27 1001 Darren Till -110 o3½ -115 3:30PM 1002 Stephen Thompson -110 u3½ -105 
Wonderboy always light on his feet and can sharp shoot with kicks and punches.. Wonderboy kicking will be an advantage against Till I think..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-23-18, 03:05 PM.Comment -
Please don't give much credit to Till's win over Cerrone. That was huge size difference and Cerrone was mentally not himself. Till was a +130 dog and people acting like he shocked the world lol.Comment -
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I know Thrilla, Cowboys chin has been cracked with regularity lately.Comment -
British MMA fighters have a tendency to lose 50 fight IQ points when fighting in their home turf.Comment -
Stephen Thompson ‘Not That Impressed’ by Darren Till.
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Stephen Thompson Warns "Predictable" & Overconfident Darren Till: "Don't Underestimate Me"
<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="551.8" height="310" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/J6eY3-RdsaY?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_policy=3&s howinfo=0&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&start=0 &end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>Comment -
Bold statement: Don't be surprised if Davey Grant hands Manny Bermudez his first loss in dominant fashion.Comment -
Don't over-estimate the line motion.
There are plenty of drunken brits who might swear on their mother that hometown hero Paddy Pimblett would finish Conor McGregor inside 1 round.
They have to support the hometown hero and bet ungodly amounts of money on him, even if they know he's going to lose. They wouldn't be patriotic otherwise.Comment -
Darren Till undefeated at this level and point in the UFC is a problem.. Like I said Wonderboy should win on paper but Till hasn't tasted defeat yet.. Finds ways to win...
Tough fight to call!!!! Seriously...
Till may catch kicks and bring the fight to Wonderboy.. Till comes to fight..
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Wonderboy is just such a huge step up from anyone Till has fought. I'll be super impressed if Till wins but I really don't think it will happen.Darren Till undefeated at this level and point in the UFC is a problem.. Like I said Wonderboy should win on paper but Till hasn't tasted defeat yet.. Finds ways to win...
Tough fight to call!!!! Seriously...
Till may catch kicks and bring the fight to Wonderboy.. Till comes to fight..
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Till is a big dude that will come forward and is fighting in his back yard of Liverpool. He will press forward.. Maybe this fight doesn't go the distance the more I think about it.. Wonderboy by KO could be a play here.. Till is a young and confident fighter that is undefeated though.. No gimmie here Hugo.. I think it's a tricky fight to bet...
Like I said MMA logic suggests you take Wonderboy but that undefeated thing is tough to over look at this point.. Till riding a high blasting thru Cowboy as well last fight...
Coin flip I think....
Stephen
Thompson
"Wonderboy"
vs
Darren
Till
"The Gorilla"
UNITED STATES
Country
ENGLAND
14-2-1
Record
16-0-1
50%
KO/TKO
63%
7%
SUB
13%
43%
DEC
25%
72 in
Height
72 in
170 lbs
Weight
170 lbs
75 in
Reach
74 in
41 in
Leg Reach
42 in
Significant Strikes
3.81
Landed per minute
3.18
44.01%
Accuracy
52.35%
2.66
Absorbed P/M
3.25
59.79%
Defense
62.78%
Grappling
0.48
Takedown Average
0.8
50%
Takedown Accuracy
33.33%
78.13%
Takedowns Defended
82.35%
000
Submission Average
000Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-23-18, 11:49 PM.Comment -
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LOL Jibbby Thompson Till is far from a 50/50 skill wise. Thompson should have been bet down yet he is a dog now. Ridiculous.
+ How can you think being undefeated is good thing? When I hunt for plays across the thousands of sportsevents on a day I always look to bet against a team on a winning streak or being undefeated. They are due to lose. Less hungry, less focus, underestimation, carelessness etc. Few of the factors. Most importantly market probably value them too much.
You have been talking jibbberish about this fight untill now.
I suggest you start watching tape on Till and Thompson. Last week you won on the card. Well guess what you are due to lose now.
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Years of betting MMA pal since bets first came out for MMA and at a time when the UFC was just born. Jibs was there and watching...LOL Jibbby Thompson Till is far from a 50/50 skill wise. Thompson should have been bet down yet he is a dog now. Ridiculous.
+ How can you think being undefeated is good thing? When I hunt for plays across the thousands of sportsevents on a day I always look to bet against a team on a winning streak or being undefeated. They are due to lose. Less hungry, less focus, underestimation, carelessness etc. Few of the factors. Most importantly market probably value them too much.
You have been talking jibbberish about this fight untill now.
I suggest you start watching tape on Till and Thompson. Last week you won on the card. Well guess what you are due to lose now.
I know if you are undefeated at the UFC level and signed on for a time these days with more then 10 fight wins you can't be over looked. I don't care if it's Wonderboy or not.. Wonderboy has lost a couple fights and isn't anything super special now.. He's very good and proven though..
That is all.. I said I'm leaning Wonderboy by decision ever so slightly.. Probably won't hit though.. Could be a KO one way or the other..Last edited by JIBBBY; 05-24-18, 01:41 AM.Comment -
Don't matter if hits or not right now. If that's the most valuable play just go with it. Moneymanagement and longterm thinking.
All I'm wondering right now is how much and when to bet on Thompson.Comment -
There is now a thread on reddit with people posting their betslips on Wonderboy now that the lines are even.
This would worry me if I were a Wonderboy backer. I'm willing to believe that some of that Till action is degen scouser homers. But some of it has to be sharp action as well.
For the record, I was on Till at +165 and now I'm wondering whether to arb or just let it ride. Think he's got better than 38% implied odds chance here.Comment -
Highest point Wonderboy +112 on Pinnacle. Dropped to +110 atm last two movements. My experience gut tells me this is it. Liverpool highrollers though they crazy about their local fighters. Smell my finger could be right it can rise again.Comment -
Thompson is not knocking Till out. I really think people are underestimating the crowd too. It is going to be RABID. The tix sold out in minutes, first event in Liverpool and an undefeated fighter born and bred there is headlining. I guarantee its going to be crazier than the dublin mcgregor card. I believe the walk is after 11pm, ill be surprised if WB doesnt get debris thrown at him. Another big thing too is WB is completely overlooking Till based on his interviews. I think Till is going to march forward and walk past the karate. Till is so god damn big too. Hes talking about moving up to 205 for gods sake. The size difference will be very visible come fight nightComment -
I would spread at least half of that by decision.Comment -
You guys seriously need to go and re-watch every single one of Bisping's fights in the UK if you are leaning WB by decision. Crazy.Comment -
this is not a good way to look at the fight, some of you guys act like the crowd will be in the damn octagon holding WB down while till swings on him. crowd only counts in close rounds and while i think there can be one or two of them, for the majority of the fight i see wonderboy frustrating till with lateral movement, not giving him opportunities to load up or setup combinations, and capitalizing on the times till over commits, one thing to take in account is tills kicks, he might be the best kicker WB has faced, scoring points on wb with low kicks and even blocked head kicks that get pointed by the judges due to crowd reactions.Comment -
oh, 1 off topic thing, can anyone tell me what happened to the capper called MD that used to post her and had the great Jibby vs MD comment wars ..... those were super entertaining
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MD was a clown.. He jumped forums with his side kick pal Nunyabidness years ago.. Last I checked he's posting on another MMA forum.. I forgot the name of the forum as it's been so long..Comment -
Just noticed this question. My initial lean was Lansberg but not at opening prices. After a good win from Mazany against Yanan ** and Lansberg being dominated on the ground by Ladd, you'd have expected Lansberg to not be a heavy favorite at opening. Now the lines are near even which has me intrigued. Mazany strikes me as a hyper aggressive fighter that finds success against girls who are less physically imposing. Not very technical but is a worker. No shame in losing to McMann and Pena. The big question is whether this bully approach will work against Lansberg who may have the physicality advantage. This may be a fight where Mazany charges forward and ends up clinched up and neutralized by Lansberg. In that sort of fight I would favor Lansberg. I'll watch Mazany's fights again closer to see how her takedown game is and make a decision based on that.Comment -
I put a good sized play on Mazany. She was outsized in her last fight and she showed very good motor and diversity of TDs. I don’t think she gets out-physical’d by Länsberg. Check out 3:30 of round 3 again Yanan. Mazany lands two TDs in a row, the second being a nice double on the cage where she bumps Yanan hard into the cage and then uses the momemnetum on the rebound to suck the legs out and dump her. And this is late in the fight against a bigger, younger opponent.
I’m sold. She has been at Xtreme Couture and the UFCPI with good trainers and partners for a while now and it seems to be bringing out the best in her. Meanwhile Länsberg trains with pretty much no one in Sweden and is up in age where she’s prob not making any more marked improvements.
As always, open to any flaws you see in my logic.Comment -
Yanan ** injured her arm in the 2nd round so it's tough to judge how much resistance she was putting up. IMO Mazany doesn't come close to finishing that takedown against Lansberg against the cage.
I rate age as less of a factor when it comes to women. The hormonal change as women go from 20s and 30s doesn't mean quite as much, and it seems like the heavier weight ladies are even less affected.
I'm actually considering betting Lansberg straight here. Will watch the Mazany / ** fight for the 3rd time and then decide. In this matchup, strength is going to be a huge factor. Gina is more spazzy and aggressive fighter and if she can't get the fight where she wants, it's going to be a long night. Lansberg has much more control. If she can stuff the takedowns, she's way better on the feet and in the clinch.
One last thing. Check out Yanan's record. In her 9 wins, 8 of them have been against fighters with 0 wins, with her only win against a fighter with 1 win. I have a feeling Lansberg would have destroyed Yanan worse than Gina did.Last edited by turbozed; 05-24-18, 04:25 PM.Comment -
Not really because not many girls have tried it. We have Cyborg wrenching her off the cage and then Ladd in the last fight. However, even when Lina was taken down by Ladd, Lina almost popped back up and it took some slick second effort from Ladd to change angles and drive again. This was a well timed double leg in open space.
Gina's takedowns against Yanan were against the cage. And it's not like she was an unstoppable force. Yanan at times punished her in the clinch even without proper control. If you watch Lina against the cage that head is right up in her opponents chin and her positions are technically sound. The only time she was really outclinched was against Cyborg and, even then, she had her moments of sticking the mighty 'borg against the cage.
Another thing to watch for is top control. Even if Gina does manage to land a takedown or two on Lina, I doubt it's going to look anything like Ladd on top. There's a moment in round 2 of the fight with Yanan where Gina is on top and Yanan just stands up and puts Gina against the cage. Lansberg has gotten up from the bottom of Cyborg's mount so she's not a dead fish on her back.
I think the lines are close because of recency bias. Yanan ** is an absolute can crusher that may be well below UFC level. People don't realize how good Ladd is and how strong her top game is (a strong CONTROL top game, not the spazzy top game Gina has). Then we see Lansberg's TDD woes against some of the best. It's easy to make that connection but Ladd and Yanan are not in the same league.Comment
