Haven’t looked into the fight yet but interested in Johns at +100. I respect the skills of Aljo, but Johns might be someone that you have to just ride until he loses, and at even money it’s tempting.
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i like what i've seen from jones, but when i'm thinking about how it will play out i think we will be betting on a range kickboxing fight between 2 grapples with brief moments of clinching, and i'm not too sure who wins that, aljo has better kicks and jons might be the better boxer, the more i think about it the more i want to stay away from it
if you think jons is worth a bet here i can see why it would be tempting, but it might be at that price because it really is a coinflip and might come down to x-factors and luckComment -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iu-9XukiIzk i really like these 2 guys and listen to their breakdowns before handicapping ever card, maybe of some use to anyone with 2h to spareComment -
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Really think Edgar starches Swanson here. Jumped on Edgar -3.5 (+175) for 2.5u plus some on Edgar ITD/R2/R3Comment -
I'm on the opposite end. Watched tape on Johns a while back and have been looking for a good spot to fade him ever since. Maybe I'll have to go back and watch again. What specifically do you like about Johns? Looking through my notes, it seems he's able to barely outwrestle poor non-UFC level opponents, and has bad striking.Comment -
Dominant TD artist who can win rounds from inside guard with smothering style against cage. Has done it to anyone and everyone he’s faced. Maybe it’s a product of his competition, but in 15 fights no one has stopped him from implementing his game. Getting even money to bet that he will do for a 16th time what he has already done 15 times seems okay to me.
Devil’s advocate: Can’t remember seeing Aljo taken down and held down consistently by anyone. His hands definitely are improving and he’s learning to fight more aggressively and win rounds more clearly.Comment -
i think we can come up with enough pertinent reasons to go either way in this match-up that is why i'm leaning towards no bet. it seems too hard to predict who will win the wrestling (or if it will be a stalemate), what will be more of a factor : aljo's kicks and athleticism, or jons pressure game and boxing. plus unanswered questions like : how would have jons looked vs the guys sterling faced, we've seen sterling vs almost all you can get in the ufc now (pure strikers - johnny edwardo, wrestle-boxers - assuncao, pure grapplers - carraway, and even the ghost of renan barao, that he beat ) i'm pulling for you to win the bet hugo, i like jons and i want new blood in the division, but find a small hedge on sterling by dec, or be with your finger on that livebet button just in case
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I guess the "dominant wrestler" part is where we diverge. Prior to his UFC run, his wrestling looked like it wouldn't work at higher levels. Against regional competition like James Brun, he wasn't able to get the guy down in the first 3 rounds. Looked bad against Gutierrez barely scraping by a split decision.
Maybe his wrestling improved when he got to the UFC because it looked good against Albert Morales and Kwan Ho Kwak, but those aren't quality strong UFC level grapplers. His wrestling game is pretty single minded though. He's putting 100% into getting a guy down so in clinches he's not going to be landing offense in clinches. If he runs into a guy who is able to counterwrestle and out-strength him, this stalling is going to look like desperation instead of effective grappling.
Aljo's wrestling has been pretty solid and tested against high level competition. First guy to land a takedown against Barao (okay maybe the shell of Barao). But still, the point is that it's on a different level than Kwak and Morales. If Aljo ends up stronger than Johns, Johns has no avenue of victory it seems. If Aljo just neutralizes Johns' wrestling, he might win a horrible wall and stall fight where at least he lands a bit more on the feet while Johns' wrestling looks ineffective.
Johns may grind out Aljo like his previous opponents but I don't like those odds since I think Aljo's wrestling is at least slightly better than those guys Johns has already fought and most likely much better. It only takes slightly better for Aljo to win IMO.
Then again, I'm not very good at judging grappling fundamentals and techniques and am kinda just eyeballing it. Value-wise, I think Johns with his undefeated record and impressive recent Rd1 win will be more expensive than actual value.Comment -
Hooker/Miller
Not super familiar with Hooker, but from what I see, guy seems built perfect for Muay Thai. That being said, I also see in his fights he never really uses distance to his advantage even when not looking for a clinch. Leads me to maybe see a game Miller (always game) having a chance for a ko. Don't think Hooker has lost by ko, so odds should be pretty good , worth a shot.Comment -
I said dominant TD artist not wrestler. He is lifelong Judo and has trips and every type of TD from bodylock and clinch. Look at Kwak fight again and count how many different ways he took Kwak down: single leg, double leg, outside and inside trips. He can adjust. Now look at Aljo/Caraway. Aljo lost that fight against the cage because Caraway grinded him out with pressure to cage and sucking out single legs or with bodylock and outside reap of leg.
Aljo has excellent skills and good defense, but I don’t think he has damaging enough offense to put an end to the relentless forward pressure of Johns which is what I think will win him a decision similar to Caraway’s.
Also, I’m that Gutierrez fight I believe he had a right knee injury which could explain why he didn’t look as dominant with TDs.Comment -
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<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="569.6" height="320" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DB6C3-o5iqA?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_policy=3&s howinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&start=0 &end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="569.6" height="320" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vGwQP7ZLo_A?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>Last edited by Thrilla; 04-20-18, 09:19 AM.Comment -
In my notes, I have him injuring his leg in the 4th round. In that fight Gutierrez had success in the 2nd and 3rd round defending TDs and reversing positions it looks like.
I think it's weird that he didn't look great at all against lesser competition and then does well against Morales and Kwak. I'm just thinking there's a good chance it might be one of those Jeremy Kennedy scenarios where a one dimensional style works well against lower level UFC guys but looks bad against a higher level stronger opponent.Comment -
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<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="569.6" height="320" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/K2_A8Wm4XEs?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>
<iframe frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0"width="569.6" height="320" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/l0NujP3u6YM?autoplay=0&fs=0&iv_load_poli cy=3&showinfo=1&rel=0&cc_load_policy=0&s tart=0&end=0&origin=https://youtubeembedcode.com"></iframe>Last edited by Thrilla; 04-20-18, 09:32 AM.Comment -
guys i think we are wasting a bit too much time and precious internet ink on this match up, i'm sure none of us will go broke on this fight and we can look for some decent value in some other lines
on that note : santos vs branch fight won't start round 3 is -105 or santos R1 +275
sasaki v bibulatov WGTD +150
seem like they have some valueComment -
I don't think Johns can outwrestle Alja. He can definitely win on the feet, but if this is a grapple heavy match up, it'll favor Alja. I actually think he'll win by DEC or Sub.Comment -
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The over I assume?Comment -
Last of the MMA write ups.. Main card.. This is not Stumberg the normal writer, but these write up seem legit...
155 lbs.: Edson Barboza (19-5) vs. Kevin “Motown Phenom” Lee (16-3)
Kevin Lee has been talking about beating Conor McGregor, because alongside Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov, he’s one of the “big three” in the lightweight division. He also said he would “sell big” as a “marquee” headliner against any of the aforementioned fighters.
Didn’t this dude just get submitted a few months back?
I understand that it’s a new era in combat sports and every fighter thinks they have to ape Chael Sonnen in order to finagle a title fight (Hi Colby), but at least “The American Gangster” was in on the joke.
Lee actually believes this shit.
That’s not to suggest “Motown Phenom” is not a talented fighter. He’s a great wrestler with outstanding offensive grappling, but it’s kind of shocking how an athlete with his physique can’t punch with any real power.
One technical knockout win in 19 professional fights is not exactly the stuff of legend and let’s face it, Lee has 12 fights under the UFC banner and only one of them has been against a fighter ranked in the top 15 (Michael Chiesa).
Edson Barboza hasn’t been lighting the world on fire either, but he did beat a former UFC champion in Anthony Pettis, as well as a former Strikeforce champion in Gilbert Melendez. His most recent losses came to Nurmagomedov and Ferguson, the champion and the interim champion.
The Brazilian is a terrific striker with solid takedown defense, but I’m not sure he can hold up long enough to keep Lee at bay. One thing I’ve never liked about Barboza as a fighter is how easily he’s flummoxed when the fight does not play out exactly the way he wants it to.
Lee will need to be a pressure fighter in “Dirty Jersey” because even with all of his posturing, I doubt “Motown Phenom” and his lone TKO will try to turn this into a kickboxing match. To win it has to be diverse and perhaps more importantly, it has to be ugly.
The gameplans on both sides are simple. Barboza will try to stay upright and out of the pocket, while Lee will look to close the distance and drag this thing to the floor. The former is a lot harder than the latter, particularly across a 25-minute fight.
Prediction: Lee def. Barboza by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (22-6-1) vs. Cub Swanson (25-8)
I don’t want to get into the “too soon” conversation because we’ve kinda talked about it ad nauseam. I think we all agree that it’s a bad idea for Frankie Edgar to jump back into the Octagon less than two months removed from his first knockout loss.
And it should be noted “The Answer” turns 37 in just a few months.
But just because we’re against it doesn’t mean failure is a foregone conclusion. Edgar can steamroll Cub Swanson and look like the No. 1 contender again, just like he did the first time they fought back in 2014.
It wasn't a close fight.
Swanson has gotten sharper and more polished since then, but hasn’t really evolved much as a fighter over the course of his career. He’s a great boxer with outstanding cardio and he’s tough as nails, too, but he can be taken down by good wrestlers and his submission defense is ... well, six submissions in eight losses tells you everything you need to know.
He’s a puncher, so we’ll give him the proverbial chance.
Edgar is going to stick to what got him to the big dance and more importantly, what got him into the win column against “Killer Cub” at UFC Fight Night 57. He’s going to bounce around, stick-and-move, then shoot for the takedown and soften him up on the ground.
Swanson couldn't stop it in 2014, and I don’t believe he’ll be able to stop it tomorrow, either.
Prediction: Edgar def. Swanson by submission
265 lbs.: Chase “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman (11-4) vs. Justin “Big Pretty” Willis (6-1)
Someone in this fight is going to lose, but they are both winners when it comes to nicknames. Sherman is 2-3 in five trips to the cage and two of those losses came by way of violent knockout. He’s an agile, athletic heavyweight ... and not much else. Willis does not have his opponent’s physique, but it doesn’t really matter because he packs power in his punches. You probably haven’t heard of anyone he’s beaten, but let’s not pretend Sherman is a household name.
What we have here are two former college football studs looking to make a name for themselves as MMA fighters. That means fists will fly and bodies will fall. Based on what I’ve seen from both combatants over the last year or so, “Big Pretty” feels like the safe pick. A first-round finish would not surprise me.
Prediction: Willis def. Sherman by knockout
185 lbs.: David Branch (21-4) vs. Thiago “Marreta” Santos (17-5)
When I was a kid, I once had egg foo young that was burnt and nasty. It left such a horrible taste in my mouth I never ordered it again. That’s kind of where I’m at with David Branch, thanks to that abomination against Krzysztof Jotko last May. He followed that up by getting smashed by Luke Rockhold and two fights after he was brought back to UFC, I can’t help but remember why they booted him in the first place. No question he’s a fantastic grappler, but no one was high fiving or butt slapping when this fight was announced.
Thiago Santos had a rough 2016 when he was finished in back-to-back fights, but that must have lit a fire under his ass because since then, “Marreta” has captured four straight with all four contests ending by way of violent knockout. His jiu-jitsu is good enough to thwart Branch’s ground attack and his stand up is leagues above the former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) champ. Oh, and in case you were wondering, “Marreta” means “sledgehammer” in Portuguese. Fitting for a fighter with 12 KO/TKO finishes in 18 wins.
Prediction: Santos def. Branch by technical knockout
135 lbs.: Brett “The Pikey” Johns (15-0) vs. Aljamain “Funk Master” Sterling (14-3)
Aljamain Sterling jumped out to a 12-0 start, which included four straight wins in UFC, but then found himself lost at sea, splitting his next four bouts (2-2) in fights that went to the judges scorecards. Then came his brutal knockout loss to Marlon Moraes and we have to start asking what happened to “The Funkmaster” and why.
Especially because he’s fighting a 15-0 fighter who is already 3-0 under the UFC banner with a submission win by way of calf slicer. Working against “The Pikey” is the fact that he hasn’t fought any big names and Sterling will be his toughest test to date. If he can keep himself from getting taken down, I believe he takes this one by decision. Unfortunately, Sterling is likely to be gun shy after the Moraes loss and will turn this into WrestleMania.
Prediction: Sterling def. Johns by split decision
155 lbs.: Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (15-7) vs. Jim Miller (28-11, 1 NC)
This will be Jim Miller’s first fight in 2018 and I’m sure he’s in a big hurry to put 2017 in the rearview mirror, especially after dropping three straight. They were all by decision and it’s not like he was blown out, but once you get into double digits in the loss column it’s pretty clear the division title is permanently out of reach. The good news is, Miller comes to fight and usually delivers.
Hooker is the exact opposite, coming off a stellar 2017 that included back-to-back wins — and finishes — over Ross Pearson and Marc Diakiese. He’s a well balanced fighter with an even split between knockouts (7) and submissions (7). He’s also six years younger than Miller and competing in his prime. “The Hangman” is unlikely to finish the rugged veteran, but I expect him to be first in every exchange. Barring a sneaky Miller submission, Hooker is likely to win a convincing decision over the hometown hero.
There you have it.Comment -
Update.
Bibulator deemed medically unfit to compete that fight is pulled from the card.
Aspen Ladd weighed 1.8 pounds over the limit. Leslie Smith refused to take the fight. Looks like that one is off the card, too.Comment -
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Kind of dumb for Leslie to refuse to fight. It wasn't like Ladd missed by an obscene amount...
I really liked Leslie in this spot...Comment -
Sounds like Leslie Smith wanted to re-negotiate her contract or reschedule the fight. The UFC refused both and paid her show and win to end the contract.
Honestly seems the UFC is taking advantage of the situation and getting rid of her because of her pro-unionization advocacy. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a strike at some point. The UFC is greedy AF and the chickens will come to roost.Comment -
I just saw my buddies kid lose for the second time in his career (both guys didnt make weight)from another guy that didn't make weight. These fighters are in a tough position having to take these fights with the piss money they make, against these guys not being professional enough to make weightComment -
Listening to the MMAJunkie interview w/ Leslie. I completely change my opinion, she's 100% in the right.Comment
