UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 | Saturday 12.2.2017 (Detroit, Michigan)

[Shagdogy]

Love Teymur as a fighter. Still capping Klose there but I'll probably be on Teymur. I've done well with Teymur bets in the past so we'll see if that streak continues. I actually think Pettis has a solid shot here. Want to put some BPs on it?

Spent a lot of time on this fight. Klose's chin has been iron as far as I can tell from watching his fights. He's also going to be clearly the most physically imposing fighter that Teymur has fought, and because of his style, Klose is an excellent round winner.

The question is whether or not Teymur can stay in space for the majority of the fight. Klose is a very effective grinder against the cage and he always comes forward and pushes the action, but Teymur has excellent hips and is really tough to get a clean hold on.

I think this fight is a toss up. Dog or pass IMO.

[Shagdogy]

It's definitely not one of the more exciting fights on this card, but I see no reason to believe Allen Crowder belongs in the UFC. I think Willis wins this fight comfortably, anywhere that it takes place.

[Sato]

Waterson looks interesting to me as well at those odds.

[PaperTrail07]

Klose is gritty.....enjoying beating the shit out of people and wont lose at home....UNLESS he get's KO'd.....he wont be outworked

Spent a lot of time on this fight. Klose's chin has been iron as far as I can tell from watching his fights. He's also going to be clearly the most physically imposing fighter that Teymur has fought, and because of his style, Klose is an excellent round winner.

The question is whether or not Teymur can stay in space for the majority of the fight. Klose is a very effective grinder against the cage and he always comes forward and pushes the action, but Teymur has excellent hips and is really tough to get a clean hold on.

I think this fight is a toss up. Dog or pass IMO.

[JIBBBY]

already got a ton of money on cejudo, wouldnt really be worth putting any points on for me tbh over -200
even though i think its a lock this is mma , dont wanna get buried everywhere haha

I think we are all loving Cejudo but the question is does he win by decision or ITD?

I'm kinda leaning ITD.. Henry looked like he was on a mission in his last fight.. Fighting with a real purpose now.. Looking to finish...

[JIBBBY]

Spent a lot of time on this fight. Klose's chin has been iron as far as I can tell from watching his fights. He's also going to be clearly the most physically imposing fighter that Teymur has fought, and because of his style, Klose is an excellent round winner.

The question is whether or not Teymur can stay in space for the majority of the fight. Klose is a very effective grinder against the cage and he always comes forward and pushes the action, but Teymur has excellent hips and is really tough to get a clean hold on.

I think this fight is a toss up. Dog or pass IMO.

You're talking me into taking Klose.. He certainly has a chance in this fight.. The dog might be the call..

[JIBBBY]

Waterson looks interesting to me as well at those odds.

Karate Hottie seems to me to be to involved in her sex glamour and photo shoots these days.. She got stopped in her last fight as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michelle-Waterson-23091

Tecia Torres is as tough as they come, a decision machine.. I got her out working Waterson to a decision win myself.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tecia-Torres-85096

1411 Torres wins by 3 round decision

-103

Main Card



Tecia
Torres
"The Tiny Tornado"
vs
Michelle
Waterson
"The Karate Hottie"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

9-1-0
Record
14-5-0

0%
KO/TKO
21%

11%
SUB
64%

78%
DEC
14%

61 in
Height
63 in

115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs

60 in
Reach
62 in

35 in
Leg Reach
35 in

Significant Strikes

4.48
Landed per minute
2.65

48.79%
Accuracy
71.97%

2.25
Absorbed P/M
1.78

72.3%
Defense
53.94%

[Hugo de Naranja]

Karate Hottie seems to me to be to involved in her sex glamour and photo shoots these days.. She got stopped in her last fight as well..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michelle-Waterson-23091

Tecia Torres is as tough as they come, a decision machine.. I got her out working Waterson to a decision win myself.. [URL]http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tecia-Torres-85096[/URL

1411 Torres wins by 3 round decision

-103

Main Card



Tecia
Torres
"The Tiny Tornado"
vs
Michelle
Waterson
"The Karate Hottie"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

9-1-0
Record
14-5-0

0%
KO/TKO
21%

11%
SUB
64%

78%
DEC
14%

61 in
Height
63 in

115 lbs
Weight
115 lbs

60 in
Reach
62 in

35 in
Leg Reach
35 in

Significant Strikes

4.48
Landed per minute
2.65

48.79%
Accuracy
71.97%

2.25
Absorbed P/M
1.78

72.3%
Defense
53.94%

I think Waterson is super overrated.

[JIBBBY]

I think Waterson is super overrated.

Yup Hugo.. Agreed...

[Demonata]

My locks for this card is cejudo,torres and alex oliviera. Probably do a 3 team parlay with these 3. Even thoughtvi hare alex oliviera i think he wins easily. Watersob over rated and torres is the real deal. Cejudo been on fire and so damn tough.

[MMANick]

I love Torres by decision here. She's really tough and will continue to move forward on Karate Hottie all night. I also would love the Karate Hottie to sit on my face.

[JIBBBY]

My locks for this card is cejudo,torres and alex oliviera. Probably do a 3 team parlay with these 3. Even thoughtvi hare alex oliviera i think he wins easily. Watersob over rated and torres is the real deal. Cejudo been on fire and so damn tough.

Yancy vs Alex Oliviera is interesting.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Yancy-Medeiros-27738

Yancy is tough Dem but I'm also leaning Alex Oli and by KO...

FS1



Alex
Oliveira
"Cowboy"
vs
Yancy
Medeiros

BRAZIL
Country
UNITED STATES

17-3-1, 2NC
Record
14-4-0, 1NC

65%
KO/TKO
50%

18%
SUB
29%

18%
DEC
21%

71 in
Height
70 in

170 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

76 in
Reach
75 in

43 in
Leg Reach
41 in

Significant Strikes

2.51
Landed per minute
4.07

51.68%
Accuracy
34.38%

1.59
Absorbed P/M
4.81

44.49%
Defense
49.35%

[JIBBBY]

I love Torres by decision here. She's really tough and will continue to move forward on Karate Hottie all night. I also would love the Karate Hottie to sit on my face.

And fart.. Lol...

[turbozed]

Pettis better bring his chin. Cejudo is a damn wrecking ball. 100% TDD and he just wails power on the feet. I like both these fighters but Cejudo is worthy of that -250 IMO. Pettis is going to have to be incredibly sharp and technical for all 3 rounds to beat Cejudo.

Yeah, and did you know that Henry Cejudo is an Olympic gold medalist? Most people don't know this. It's a closely guarded secret.

[turbozed]

I love Torres by decision here. She's really tough and will continue to move forward on Karate Hottie all night. I also would love the Karate Hottie to sit on my face.

I maxed bet the Torres opener. Really think she'd be unbeatable at atomweight since her skills are hard to deny. Waterson is pretty inconsistent and don't know what sort of performance you'll get out of here. After a pretty tough loss, with media obligations, and mommy duties, it's hard to see her being prepared for someone like Torres.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yeah, and did you know that Henry Cejudo is an Olympic gold medalist? Most people don't know this. It's a closely guarded secret.

Almost never uses it for as much as this is mentioned.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I maxed bet the Torres opener. Really think she'd be unbeatable at atomweight since her skills are hard to deny. Waterson is pretty inconsistent and don't know what sort of performance you'll get out of here. After a pretty tough loss, with media obligations, and mommy duties, it's hard to see her being prepared for someone like Torres.

I think Waterson has to get a finish to win. She’s not a great roundwinner and that’s Torres’ speciality.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah, and did you know that Henry Cejudo is an Olympic gold medalist? Most people don't know this. It's a closely guarded secret.

Noooo waaaaaay?!?!?

For real though many very good wrestlers have trouble bringing it to MMA. Cejudo has iron clad TDD so he knows where his fights are going to take place, and he also knows he's going to bring more power than most in that division. In some ways he's teenie tiny vintage Chuck Liddell. I really like both fighters in this matchup but the power of Cejudo at this weight class is a game changer.

[UncleChael]

The Underground King gonna put a whooping on that boy.

[JIBBBY]

I maxed bet the Torres opener. Really think she'd be unbeatable at atomweight since her skills are hard to deny. Waterson is pretty inconsistent and don't know what sort of performance you'll get out of here. After a pretty tough loss, with media obligations, and mommy duties, it's hard to see her being prepared for someone like Torres.

Spot on post Turbs.. Can't agree more...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Noooo waaaaaay?!?!?

For real though many very good wrestlers have trouble bringing it to MMA. Cejudo has iron clad TDD so he knows where his fights are going to take place, and he also knows he's going to bring more power than most in that division. In some ways he's teenie tiny vintage Chuck Liddell. I really like both fighters in this matchup but the power of Cejudo at this weight class is a game changer.

He's got one finish (over a super chinny FW in Wilson Reis) in his last nine fights! Hasn't really hurt many opponents before that Reis finish either.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I maxed bet the Torres opener. Really think she'd be unbeatable at atomweight since her skills are hard to deny. Waterson is pretty inconsistent and don't know what sort of performance you'll get out of here. After a pretty tough loss, with media obligations, and mommy duties, it's hard to see her being prepared for someone like Torres.

With you on this one. Put 5u on Torres/Cyborg (+120). Hedged with Waterson Submission (+1465) since I think that's actually her best path to victory here.

[firekillex]

i think cejudos finishes will start coming, hes improved a TON in the standup imo in his last few fights, ive been very impressed
think fight im not sure hell get a finish since i could see him using some takedowns and clinches to waste clock, but imo hes much better then Pettis whos overrated in a shallow division

[Hugo de Naranja]

I remember putting a sizable bet on Holloway Scorecards = No Action at (+104) in their first fight. It's (-942) for the rematch.

[Hugo de Naranja]

i think cejudos finishes will start coming, hes improved a TON in the standup imo in his last few fights, ive been very impressed
think fight im not sure hell get a finish since i could see him using some takedowns and clinches to waste clock, but imo hes much better then Pettis whos overrated in a shallow division

Too bad you won't back it up with some BPs

[Hugo de Naranja]

I see Cejudo as the more likely finisher here but Pettis is a great roundwinner. I could see him winning a close decision where both guys have their moments throughout.

[firekillex]

-200 or more betpoint bets have really no benefit imo
even though id say its 90% chance cejudo wins this fight , pettis hasnt even hit his prime yet he still has a ton of room to grow this match it moving up to fast imo, because the division is so shallow hes forced to take this fight against a clear cut top 3 125er , gonna show that theres levels to dis shitt

[Hugo de Naranja]

-200 or more betpoint bets have really no benefit imo
even though id say its 90% chance cejudo wins this fight , pettis hasnt even hit his prime yet he still has a ton of room to grow this match it moving up to fast imo, because the division is so shallow hes forced to take this fight against a clear cut top 3 125er , gonna show that theres levels to dis shitt

(-900) seems to be overrating Cejudo's chances.

[firekillex]

80-90% chance depending how his weight cut and everything goes
cejudo is the 2nd best 125er on the planet imo and the only true flyweight who can contend with DJ

unless TJ drops down but im not sure about that if he can make weight
Pettis is a solid fighter but hes not top 3 level yet , a ton of holes in his game , he is improving but so is Cejudo at a rapid rate

[turbozed]

Aldo KO at +1255 seems a bit high.

Aldo should know that he lost that last fight because he tried to play a technical boxing game like he did against Frankie. That won't work against Max and he just took over when he found Aldo's range. His best chance is to just pressure and throw a lot and try to keep Max off balance. Maybe we'll see a firefight in which case a KO might happen. More likely for Max but setting implied probability of Aldo KO at 7% is not giving him enough credit.

[Shagdogy]

He's got one finish (over a super chinny FW in Wilson Reis) in his last nine fights! Hasn't really hurt many opponents before that Reis finish either.

Like fire said, I think he's clearly improving and gaining confidence there. I don't expect a lot of finishes in this weight class, not KO's at least, but I think he's coming into a point where you can say he's a hard hitter.

[turbozed]

Here's my writeup on Herrig/Casey:

Both Herrig and Casey seem to have grown by leaps and bounds since their UFC beginnings. While Herrig technically won her UFC debut, she has a TUF loss to Randa Markos and a loss to Tecia Torres in Invicta. After her loss to VanZant, people were writing her off as occupying the very bottom of the women's strawweight barrel as she closed as a underdog to perennial loser Kailin Curran.


Herrig has been pretty vocal about how combined health and mental issues have prevented her from performing. The list includes hormonal issues, gastrointestinal imbalances, nutritional deficiencies, anxiety, depression, and fatigue. Having addressed those issues, she promised that we would see a much better Herrig coming into the Curran fight and moving forward. Apparently, these changes made a difference as she steamrolled Curran, and won her next two fights against the heavily favored Grasso and slightly favored Kish.


Against Grasso, Herrig showed off improved striking and a good sense for winning rounds. Though being significantly overpowered, she thoroughly outgrappled and nearly finished Kish, literally making Kish shit her pants (which under many athletic commissions would've been scored a TKO victory and would've cashed my Herrig ITD bet).


Though starting her MMA career as a former kickboxer, she has only one TKO victory back in 2011. Without significant power, her striking is designed to score points. Not particularly strong for her division, Herrig has worked hard to improve her technical grappling and jiu jitsu skills.


Casey also had a rough going early in the UFC. Nobody faults her for losing after flying in on short notice to the UK to fight JoJo Calderwood. She also dropped her next fight to atomweight Seo Hee Ham in Korea. Only in her 3rd fight on home soil against euro debutante Cristina Stanciu was she able to pick up a win (Santicu would be dropped by the UFC soon after). After submitting Randa Markos by armbar only one month later, the UFC matched Casey up with #1 contender Claudia Gadelha. Too much too soon because she soundly lost that fight.


The fight with Gadelha also exposed some of Casey's weaknesses. At a significant wrestling disadvantage, Gadelha landed takedowns at will. One can make excuses for Casey getting tossed to the mat against one of the best TD artists in the division. However, she ended up on her back multiple times against both Jojo Caldwerood in her debut and against Jessica Aguilar 2 years and 5 fights later.


A lot of this propensity to get dumped on the ground is due to her striking style. In many of her fights, the action starts the same way: Casey blitzing forward with a 4 or 5 punch combination. It's become her MO in fights to blitz her opponent like this. The result has been that she has scored points when these combos land, but also it results in her running into a level change and being easily taken down. Calderwood and Aguilar didn't have to shoot doubles like Gadelha, Casey would just rush into them resulting in a relatively easy throw to the ground.


Although being on her back multiple times in fights (often in the same round), most of her opponents have been wary of her guard and upkicks. Calderwood and Gadelha let her up over and over. Aguilar's strategy was to lean forward and eat Casey's accurate upkicks. When she did get Casey to the ground and attempted to control her early in the fight, it seemed like Casey had a hard time getting back up (luckily for Casey the ref stood them up).


Casey is the more athletic and dynamic fighter, but she doesn't seem to have a gameplan as to how to win rounds against her opponents. She fights them all the same way: rush forward, be aggressive, and throw a lot. This along with her willingness to go to the ground will make it tough for her to beat Herrig.


Herrig's path to victory should be the same as the one she employed against Kish. And her corner's advice between the 2nd and 3rd rounds will apply to this fight as well. To paraphrase: "Take her down. Stay on top. Don't worry about being boring just win the fight." Although Casey may be better off her back technically than Kish, she also isn't as strong or explosive, and won't be able to power out bad positions. Although Casey will have her moments, Herrig always has the option to take it to the mat and be in control. Casey is too willing to let her opponents dictate the action, and Herrig has the fight IQ to do just enough on the ground to win rounds.


-140 Herrig may have some value. Although she likely wins by decision, there's a chance she can lock in a sub again, so the ML looks like a safer bet. For those looking for a hedge, Casey DEC +297. Herrig has technically never been stopped in her pro career (although she did tap to an armbar against Markos in TUF). Herrig is also much better grappler now.

[brooks85]

aldo certainly can't fight any worse than he did last fight. Obviously that was no the aldo we are used to seeing. Aldo not throwing kicks isn't aldo.

[Sato]

I know Torres is an absolute decision machine who couldnt bust up a pinata but weird things could happen. Watersons line balooned up to +205. A little stab at those odds is ok.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Aldo KO at +1255 seems a bit high.

Aldo should know that he lost that last fight because he tried to play a technical boxing game like he did against Frankie. That won't work against Max and he just took over when he found Aldo's range. His best chance is to just pressure and throw a lot and try to keep Max off balance. Maybe we'll see a firefight in which case a KO might happen. More likely for Max but setting implied probability of Aldo KO at 7% is not giving him enough credit.

Totally on board with this. 5 Rounds is a long time.