UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Poirier (November 11, 2017)

[turbozed]

Man, have really came off the dogs that I liked pre-tape (Pereira, Quinones, and now Arlovski). After watching the tape, I do think this Arlovski fight total is off. Albini isn't this elite finisher that his finish of Timmy Johnson says he is. In his stiffest 3 fights outside of the UFC, he went to a decision in 2 of them and finished by TKO in the 3rd of 5 rounds in the other. Albini isn't Stipe, Overeem, or Ngannou on the feet. He moves well and throws quickly with solid power but no doubt he'll be more measured against the much better striker than Johnson in this fight. At +350 that the fight goes the distance, I think the price is good. I think Arlovski wins the 1st round potentially and this fight surives the first big "scare" of a finish with both guys gassing (Arlovski the worst). You can get Albini +1000 in R3 if you want as well. Arlovski's cardio looked awful last time out and I can't see it getting any better

I'm on board with you here. +157 over 1.5 rounds is a pretty rare number. I get that this is HW and Arlovski's chin is center stage here but most of the dudes Albini has finished in the first round were fat middleweights who had no business fighting at HW. I don't think he's nearly as much of a destroyer as that first fight with Johnson would indicate. Albini will accept being clinched up as well. So Arlovski can just chill out against the cage to recover stamina. That being said, if Albini hits Arlovski with that same left hook that he hit Johnson with, Arlovski is getting KO'd.

Firing on the over 1.5. Good luck to us.

[Shagdogy]

Man, have really came off the dogs that I liked pre-tape (Pereira, Quinones, and now Arlovski). After watching the tape, I do think this Arlovski fight total is off. Albini isn't this elite finisher that his finish of Timmy Johnson says he is. In his stiffest 3 fights outside of the UFC, he went to a decision in 2 of them and finished by TKO in the 3rd of 5 rounds in the other. Albini isn't Stipe, Overeem, or Ngannou on the feet. He moves well and throws quickly with solid power but no doubt he'll be more measured against the much better striker than Johnson in this fight. At +350 that the fight goes the distance, I think the price is good. I think Arlovski wins the 1st round potentially and this fight surives the first big "scare" of a finish with both guys gassing (Arlovski the worst). You can get Albini +1000 in R3 if you want as well. Arlovski's cardio looked awful last time out and I can't see it getting any better

What about Lopez as a live dog? Turbo mentioned Ansaroff earlier but Lopez's number is much better. I think the two of them have a solid shot. Is everyone scared to bet against Assuncao? Lopez's wrestling pedigree and gas tank are huge weapons against a guy that rarely finishes anymore and has made his living off of razor thin decisions recently.

Ansaroff by dec could be ok for a small stab at +300 but I can't take her straight at +160.

[Shagdogy]

I upped my Lauzon+Guida Draw bet to a full unit. Thinking the following could happen:

Lauzon 10-8 R1
Guida 10-9 R2
Guida 10-9 R3

This is a definite possibility. Don't you think if Lauzon really dominated the first that badly, he will prob get the finish?

[turbozed]

What about Lopez as a live dog? Turbo mentioned Ansaroff earlier but Lopez's number is much better. I think the two of them have a solid shot. Is everyone scared to bet against Assuncao? Lopez's wrestling pedigree and gas tank are huge weapons against a guy that rarely finishes anymore and has made his living off of razor thin decisions recently.

Ansaroff by dec could be ok for a small stab at +300 but I can't take her straight at +160.

I'm still looking at the Lopez fight. Specifically looking at the +3.5 line since Assuncao tends to fight closely.

Lopez unfortunately botched his weight cut and came in 2-3 lbs overweight. Being drained is very bad for his particular style.

[Shagdogy]

I'm still looking at the Lopez fight. Specifically looking at the +3.5 line since Assuncao tends to fight closely.

Lopez unfortunately botched his weight cut and came in 2-3 lbs overweight. Being drained is very bad for his particular style.

Seems like 2-3lbs is better than missing by 1-2. Makes me think he made the conscious decision not to deplete himself too far and just give up the 20%.

[turbozed]

Seems like 2-3lbs is better than missing by 1-2. Makes me think he made the conscious decision not to deplete himself too far and just give up the 20%.

Yeah that's what I thought Alvey did when he missed by 3 lbs but he went out there looking like diggity dogshit. I'll probably take a long look at the weigh ins and ceremonial stuff to get a read.

[turbozed]

I upped my Lauzon+Guida Draw bet to a full unit. Thinking the following could happen:

Lauzon 10-8 R1
Guida 10-9 R2
Guida 10-9 R3

Not sure if this will matter much, but Virginia may not have adopted the new ruleset yet:

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/12/28/14076278/multiple-states-will-not-adopt-full-changes-to-mmas-unified-rules

[TPowell]

What about Lopez as a live dog? Turbo mentioned Ansaroff earlier but Lopez's number is much better. I think the two of them have a solid shot. Is everyone scared to bet against Assuncao? Lopez's wrestling pedigree and gas tank are huge weapons against a guy that rarely finishes anymore and has made his living off of razor thin decisions recently.
Ansaroff by dec could be ok for a small stab at +300 but I can't take her straight at +160.

The +3.5 I didn't see a number on earlier but did think it could have value. Lopez by decision was over +500 which is interesting too. I like hill in the chick fight though. She's the much better striker but yes she can be taken down still. Andrade could have taken her down at will but decided to brawl to get her popularity up. I think the over 2.5 is a good parlay piece though so if you like Nina, the value on that is there definitely.

[TPowell]

Not sure if this will matter much, but Virginia may not have adopted the new ruleset yet:

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/12/...-unified-rules

So they are similar to the unified rules now but they don't have a commission and all rules have to become state laws essentially? Wow can't wait for them to get involved in fights tonight

[TPowell]

Seems like 2-3lbs is better than missing by 1-2. Makes me think he made the conscious decision not to deplete himself too far and just give up the 20%.

Those pounds COULD be huge for a wrestler like Lopez. More size to overpower Raphael to the ground. Maybe sneak a round or two out and then survive in round three.

[Shagdogy]

Yeah that's what I thought Alvey did when he missed by 3 lbs but he went out there looking like diggity dogshit. I'll probably take a long look at the weigh ins and ceremonial stuff to get a read.

Alvey had 10 days notice and had to travel overseas. In this one Lopez has a full camp preparing for this opponent and Assuncao is the one traveling. Not sure the distance will play a huge role for him, but not getting the benefit of his home judges could be a big deal. Brazil already gifted him decisions over TJ and Moraes (closer and Moraes is Brazilian too but not a hometown guy like RA, but almost all media outlets had it for Moraes). I just think the current price is much too wide for a guy who hasn't won with authority in a while.

[Shagdogy]

Not much talk about Dodson here but kind of surprising he's not favored, right? He's never been finished and has only lost in the UFC to mighty Mouse and a split dec to Lineker. Moraes has some decision wins but less than KO and Sub. Dodson was pretty much entirely unhittable vs Wineland. For as small as he is, he uses his quickness to control distance very well. He's all the way out and then all the way in and you only have a split second to catch him. Prob not a lot of value but might be worth a small play? What do you guys think?

[TPowell]

Not much talk about Dodson here but kind of surprising he's not favored, right? He's never been finished and has only lost in the UFC to mighty Mouse and a split dec to Lineker. Moraes has some decision wins but less than KO and Sub. Dodson was pretty much entirely unhittable vs Wineland. For as small as he is, he uses his quickness to control distance very well. He's all the way out and then all the way in and you only have a split second to catch him. Prob not a lot of value but might be worth a small play? What do you guys think?

Just thinking that. Dodson doesn't have to worry as much about the KO shot here and he's certainly the quicker guy and very sharp. I like +177 by decision but man it was +255 for a little bit. Crazy.

[TPowell]

Passing on Lopez all around. His striking just isn't good enough for me to feel good about even +480 by decision. Dropped by Gagnon in the first and proceeded to grapple fuk him the rest of the way for the decision. Took Johnny Eduardo down early and finished him quick. Outgrappled by Yahya predictably (bet Yahya in that one).

[TPowell]

Think I'm going to round robin this card. Have the following that I like so far. May take Marquardt ML out for something else and do a bunch of round robins for those plays.

Arlovski/Albini OVER 1.5 (+152)
Marquardt (+250)
Dodson by DEC (+177)


Suarez ML (-300)
Northcutt/Quinones OVER 1.5 (-172)
Hill/Ansaroff OVER 2.5 (-260)

[TPowell]

Trimmed some legs off. I love Suarez after film study so played her straight. Took Nate out of the parlays because I'm just not sure enough. I think he may only be able to win this by KO so I'll have to decide. I took Arlovski Over out as well and just played it straight.

http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

EDIT: Hope nobody thinks this is some kind of tout deal. Just an easy place to keep track of bets+ I'm a huge fan of the guy who owns the site.

[Pr0ph3t]

Risked 5.25 units to win 2.5 Karl Roberson -210 vs Darren Stewart
Risked 5.3 units to win 2Tatiana Suarez -265vs Viviane Pereira
Risked 5.5 units to win 5Clay Guida -110vs Joe Lauzon
Risked 0.25 units to win 0.6Nate Marquardt +240vs Cezar Ferreira
Risked 1 unit to win 2.2Andrei Arlovski +220vs Junior Albini
Risked 4.35 units to win 3UNDER 2.5 -145vs Matt Brown
Risked 5 units to win 5.25Dustin Poirier +105 vs Anthony Pettis

[Shagdogy]

Trimmed some legs off. I love Suarez after film study so played her straight. Took Nate out of the parlays because I'm just not sure enough. I think he may only be able to win this by KO so I'll have to decide. I took Arlovski Over out as well and just played it straight.

http://www.betmma.tips/TPowell90

EDIT: Hope nobody thinks this is some kind of tout deal. Just an easy place to keep track of bets+ I'm a huge fan of the guy who owns the site.

I hate to bet -300 at all and especially for girls, but I said earlier Suarez might be worth it. Her wrestling is powerful and she has already faced some decent competition. With 15months off and no injuries that I know of, I really expect her to look her best which should be too much for Pereira to handle. From what I can tell Pereira hasn't faced a wrestler like Suarez and this could be an initiation for her.

[Shagdogy]

Risked 5.25 units to win 2.5 Karl Roberson -210 vs Darren Stewart
Risked 5.3 units to win 2Tatiana Suarez -265vs Viviane Pereira
Risked 5.5 units to win 5Clay Guida -110vs Joe Lauzon
Risked 0.25 units to win 0.6Nate Marquardt +240vs Cezar Ferreira
Risked 1 unit to win 2.2Andrei Arlovski +220vs Junior Albini
Risked 4.35 units to win 3UNDER 2.5 -145vs Matt Brown
Risked 5 units to win 5.25Dustin Poirier +105 vs Anthony Pettis

Hey man - some big plays in there. How do you feel so confident in Roberson? I feel like it's really hard to know what these two guys really are. Stewart has never been finished.

I'm with you on Guida, Suarez, and Poirier, but I don't see that much value in the Poirier line to bet it big. Why so confident in him?

(I'm assuming 5u plays are decent sized plays for you?)

[Shagdogy]

I hate to bet -300 at all and especially for girls, but I said earlier Suarez might be worth it. Her wrestling is powerful and she has already faced some decent competition. With 15months off and no injuries that I know of, I really expect her to look her best which should be too much for Pereira to handle. From what I can tell Pereira hasn't faced a wrestler like Suarez and this could be an initiation for her.

Nevermind... shoulder surgery.

[TPowell]

Nevermind... shoulder surgery.

Yep shoulder surgery. At her age and with her obvious heart I'm okay with it. Here's something from Wiki on her

Suarez has Mexican ancestry.^[3] She is a two-time bronze medalist in the world championships of freestyle wrestling. In 2011, she was ranked the number one freestyle wrestler in the USA at 55kg. While training for the 2012 Summer Olympics in London Suarez suffered a neck injury, which would derail her Olympic aspirations. An MRI and CAT scan not only revealed a bothersome disc in her neck, but a cancerous growth on her thyroid. Radiation therapy ensued, along with the removal of Suarez’s thyroid and several lymph nodes around her neck. After successful treatment her thyroid cancer was gone, but so was her wrestling career. Longing to compete again she eventually joined a Brazilian jiu-jitsu, which led her to discovering mixed martial arts.^[4]

[Shagdogy]

Yeah. Read that. Cancer survivor myself... lymphoma so similar. I guess that means I have to root for her? Haha, regardless I like her here. Didn't feel like paying the -300 so I went for a parlay, Suarez/Fortuna/Arlovski o1.5 for +350.

[JIBBBY]

I think you gotta fade Nate Marquart and Arlovski.. Both washed up now and on the verge of being cans.. Both probably lose ITD as well..

[Shagdogy]

I think you gotta fade Nate Marquart and Arlovski.. Both washed up now and on the verge of being cans.. Both probably lose ITD as well..

Good thing is the o1.5 in Arlovski fight is last leg of my parlay so I will have options if the first two legs win.

[KingHawkins]

Marlon Moraes max bet 4 figures for me. Getting offered -115 now, but closer to fight I should get even or plus money. I'm seeing large majority of action on Dodson.

[Shagdogy]

Marlon Moraes max bet 4 figures for me. Getting offered -115 now, but closer to fight I should get even or plus money. I'm seeing large majority of action on Dodson.

Why?

[TPowell]

I think you gotta fade Nate Marquart and Arlovski.. Both washed up now and on the verge of being cans.. Both probably lose ITD as well..

I disagree on Nate actually. In 11 UFC fights, he has never finished anyone by strikes and has only subbed 2 guys with awful ground games (Hermanson and Thiago Santos). These guys both fight very careful now since realizing they can't take the big shots anymore (or any shot with Ferreira). Even money this fight goes to decision is low to me. Whoever can keep the acting going will win a decision here IMO. When you get beat by Elias like Ferreira just did, you are either too low work rate wise or don't have good cardio. Ferreira's work rate is low because he's scared to death to take a punch. With Nate, he'll be even more scared while Nate survived with Alvey (awful fight) and Belfort last time out. +246 on Nate NO CARDS is very tempting to me.

[KingHawkins]

Why?

I wish I could write out a convincing argument, but basically, I think it is a good matchup for Moraes, if they stand and throw, I think he has a nice advantage. If Dodson shoots, which I don't even know that he will in his gameplan, I think Moraes gets the stuffs, or at least can get back up if he does get taken down, although I do see that as unlikely. I think Moraes wanted to be in the UFC badly, had a super tough matchup his first opportunity, and he makes up for that tough decision loss with a convincing win tonight. I think he gets it ITD, but maybe by UD.
And also it may be stupid, but I like the line holding firm despite majority of action on John.

[TPowell]

Added another unit on a parlay

+133
Brown ITD
Strickland NO CARDS

[Hugo de Naranja]

This is a definite possibility. Don't you think if Lauzon really dominated the first that badly, he will prob get the finish?

Very possible but I like the value. He has had big rounds in recent fights (i.e. the Ray fight) without getting a finish.

[Hugo de Naranja]

It's just 1 toe lol. I dislocated 3 of my toes in the cage once and one also broke all from a stupid foot stomp. It probably won't even affect your job? I had to do security while wearing this big frankenstein boot looking thing. You're acting like matt hammil from ultimate fighter season 3 when he finally hot hit in the head and kept asking people to make him sandwiches and wouldn't leave his bed.

Why were you doing security?

[Hugo de Naranja]

What about Lopez as a live dog? Turbo mentioned Ansaroff earlier but Lopez's number is much better. I think the two of them have a solid shot. Is everyone scared to bet against Assuncao? Lopez's wrestling pedigree and gas tank are huge weapons against a guy that rarely finishes anymore and has made his living off of razor thin decisions recently.

Ansaroff by dec could be ok for a small stab at +300 but I can't take her straight at +160.

Why can't you take Ansaroff ML? I think ITD is a likely path to victory, especially by sub.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not sure if this will matter much, but Virginia may not have adopted the new ruleset yet:

https://www.mmafighting.com/2016/12/...-unified-rules

Good to know

[Hugo de Naranja]

Think I'm going to round robin this card. Have the following that I like so far. May take Marquardt ML out for something else and do a bunch of round robins for those plays.

Arlovski/Albini OVER 1.5 (+152)
Marquardt (+250)
Dodson by DEC (+177)


Suarez ML (-300)
Northcutt/Quinones OVER 1.5 (-172)
Hill/Ansaroff OVER 2.5 (-260)

Can Marquardt win by anything other than KO?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Risked 5.25 units to win 2.5 Karl Roberson -210 vs Darren Stewart
Risked 5.3 units to win 2Tatiana Suarez -265vs Viviane Pereira
Risked 5.5 units to win 5Clay Guida -110vs Joe Lauzon
Risked 0.25 units to win 0.6Nate Marquardt +240vs Cezar Ferreira
Risked 1 unit to win 2.2Andrei Arlovski +220vs Junior Albini
Risked 4.35 units to win 3UNDER 2.5 -145vs Matt Brown
Risked 5 units to win 5.25Dustin Poirier +105 vs Anthony Pettis

Best of luck tonight!