UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee (October 07, 2017)

[JAKEPEAVY21]

should be an interesting fight

I think Conor needs to KO Ferguson in round 1 or 2 or he is in big trouble when he gasses

[firekillex]

What happens if Tony Ferguson is as tough as Nate Diaz and Conor can't get the KO/TKO?

Ferguson could be a bad matchup for Conor which could be why Conor's coaches were calling for a 3rd Nate Diaz fight.

Meh tony is very hittable and Conor would make him pay for that, if he comes in with the striking defense he’s had his last couple fights he’ll get finished imo... even he knows it by stating he’s working strictly on defense for a camp with mcgregor... tony is super tough but his cardio is the key to him recovering once you get dropped a few times your chin doesn’t heal from that so he needs to change some things.. people really sleep on Conor’s ground game as well he’s no fish outta water there, he was subbed against Nate because he was basically kod on his feet and shot a shitty TD... if he’s gassed whatsoever past round 3 and it’s on the ground it’s most definitely over. But I wanna see if he’s gets taken down round 1-2 what happens that would be really interesting

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think McGregor is actually a better defensive wrestler than people think

[firekillex]

I think McGregor is actually a better defensive wrestler than people think

people just see one instant of him getting tapped out but hes actually a solid submission artist/ grappler imo... he trains with gunnar nelson all the time and his main coach john kavanaugh is a very high level grappler

the move he did to chad mendes before he tkod him is the exact move he tried doing with nate diaz but he was already hurt and nate diaz is 40lbs bigger then mendes so he couldnt slip out and ended up getting full mounted .... being able to sweep nate diaz in a fight is a hard task for a "novice grappler" of course on the ground tony has the advantage but if theyre both fresh i could see mcgregor surviving .... but i agree with the points if it goes past round 3 mcgregor will definitely be in big time trouble .. .round 1-3 i favor the notorious , round 4-5 if it gets there tony ferguson basically wins 90% of the time imo

[Sanity Check]

Meh tony is very hittable and Conor would make him pay for that, if he comes in with the striking defense he’s had his last couple fights he’ll get finished imo... even he knows it by stating he’s working strictly on defense for a camp with mcgregor... tony is super tough but his cardio is the key to him recovering once you get dropped a few times your chin doesn’t heal from that so he needs to change some things.. people really sleep on Conor’s ground game as well he’s no fish outta water there, he was subbed against Nate because he was basically kod on his feet and shot a shitty TD... if he’s gassed whatsoever past round 3 and it’s on the ground it’s most definitely over. But I wanna see if he’s gets taken down round 1-2 what happens that would be really interesting

Your analysis is off in several key ways.

Peace.

[firekillex]

Your analysis is off in several key ways.

Peace.

whats off about any of that analysis ?? most of what i said is technical facts with a few opinions mixed in

[Thor4140]

Lee has a 77" reach, the longest in the entire Lightweight Divison... (facepalm)

Holey shit he doesn't fight like a guy with a reach advantage. I would have never thought that.

[Thor4140]

Lemme know bud

I sent u a response last night im not sure where the heck it went. In short yes i will wager but lets get closer to the fight. As of now i will risk 4000 to win 1000. Just remind me. I doubt i will lose all my points by than but who knows what could happen.

[Sanity Check]

Meh tony is very hittable and Conor would make him pay for that, if he comes in with the striking defense he’s had his last couple fights he’ll get finished imo... even he knows it by stating he’s working strictly on defense for a camp with mcgregor... tony is super tough but his cardio is the key to him recovering once you get dropped a few times your chin doesn’t heal from that so he needs to change some things.. people really sleep on Conor’s ground game as well he’s no fish outta water there, he was subbed against Nate because he was basically kod on his feet and shot a shitty TD... if he’s gassed whatsoever past round 3 and it’s on the ground it’s most definitely over. But I wanna see if he’s gets taken down round 1-2 what happens that would be really interesting

Ehh. I wrote a long reply but it sucked so I deleted it.

[turbozed]

I think Tavares only has 1 finish in a 7-year UFC career. Usually best to take him by Decision.

Leites never been KO'd either and it was darned close in the 3rd so hard to fault Tavares for not getting it (had Tavares Rd3 as a flyer at +2525). A lot of the guys he's beat he's had to try to counter-wrestle off of him (Magalhaes, Theodorou, Leites, etc.)
Tavares is looking better and his improved TDD is letting him open up on the feet. I wouldn't be surprised if we see him finish a fight in his next fight or two. That being said, I had the o2.5 in a parlay so Tavares the decision machine is still an angle I subscribe to.

[turbozed]

I sent u a response last night im not sure where the heck it went. In short yes i will wager but lets get closer to the fight. As of now i will risk 4000 to win 1000. Just remind me. I doubt i will lose all my points by than but who knows what could happen.

Can I get in on this action too? Finally SBR PRO now so this would be my first heh heh

Also you said the fight would never happen. What is the line you would set for if fight takes place vs not?

[Hugo de Naranja]

I sent u a response last night im not sure where the heck it went. In short yes i will wager but lets get closer to the fight. As of now i will risk 4000 to win 1000. Just remind me. I doubt i will lose all my points by than but who knows what could happen.

Consider it done. Your 4000 on McGregor to my 1000 on Ferguson. If the fight doesn't happen by 10/11/18 it's a No Bet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Can I get in on this action too? Finally SBR PRO now so this would be my first heh heh

Also you said the fight would never happen. What is the line you would set for if fight takes place vs not?

Welcome to the team my friend.

[turbozed]

Welcome to the team my friend.

Thanks brother. I know I can redeem my betpoints for stuff like sportsbook credits but what else should I be joining to maximize the membership in terms of contests and events?

[Demonata]

Consider it done. Your 4000 on McGregor to my 1000 on Ferguson. If the fight doesn't happen by 10/11/18 it's a No Bet.

Go ferguson

[PaperTrail07]

All kinda of contests ect....Welcome

Thanks brother. I know I can redeem my betpoints for stuff like sportsbook credits but what else should I be joining to maximize the membership in terms of contests and events?

[Sanity Check]

whats off about any of that analysis ?? most of what i said is technical facts with a few opinions mixed in

Alrite, I'll try to break this down.

Conor vs Nate 2 was a close fight. I think most would agree. Nate Diaz is the opponent Conor has faced who is most like Tony Ferguson in terms of height, reach, toughness and body type.

Except, Tony Ferguson has several advantages over Nate. If you watch Nate Diaz fight, he never throws kicks. Maybe its because he doesn't have confidence in his wrestling and is afraid of ending up on his back. Tony Ferguson doesn't have this issue. Not only does Tony Ferguson have a 3 inch reach advantage on Conor, he also will be throwing kicks on top of it. That makes a huge difference as it means Conor won't be able to throw a ton of unanswered leg kicks the way he did against Nate Diaz.

Another advantage Tony Ferguson has over Nate Diaz is his wrestling game. Ferguson is in my opinion a much better wrestler than Nate both offensively and defensively. That makes a huge difference. It means Conor will have to be more careful with loading up on his punches as he could end up flat on his back.

It might be fair to say, El Cucy vs Conor will be like the 2nd Conor vs Nate fight. Except Conor will be facing an opponent who is more dangerous than Nate in several different ways.

[firekillex]

meh i never thought ferguson wasnt more dangerous then nate diaz thats just like saying the sky is blue. its very obvious ferguson has more tools then diaz with his unpredictable strikings with elbows, long punches and his weird funky wrestling where he rolls for takedowns and can pull guard or something crazy... doesnt hide the fact that his striking defense is lacking and hes been dropped multiple times in his last couple fights again lando and now kevin lee who arent even close to the level of strikers mcgregor is.... also mcgregor doesnt load up on his strikes at all , thats what makes him such an elite striker his kill shot is a straight left which he just throws like a piston with 0 load up and it snaps out in a blink of an eye.... ill stick to what i said imo beginning rounds its mcgregors fight , if tony can survive until round 4 mcgregor losses 9/10 times.... either way its a super super tight fight anybody saying one guy or the other will be straight up starched doesnt watch mma

[PaperTrail07]

Ferg would only lose if the ref was quick to step in ....would wouldn't be KO's and I could see him taking that left and the ref stopping it early...otherwise tony rolls easy....his gameplans are too good and the guy is a soldier...

[firekillex]

ferguson is no doubt a beast and imo the most overall skilled fighter at 55... but i dont like how hes taking shots lately and getting dropped by lesser strikers.... he said he is going to work on this but im not sure how thatll work out . Weve seen Mcgregors power and accuracy many times people just hate him so they discount his skills... Overall tony is no doubt a more skilled mixed martial artist but conors one elite skill could still stop all that with one punch / combo

[Sanity Check]

meh i never thought ferguson wasnt more dangerous then nate diaz thats just like saying the sky is blue. its very obvious ferguson has more tools then diaz with his unpredictable strikings with elbows, long punches and his weird funky wrestling where he rolls for takedowns and can pull guard or something crazy... doesnt hide the fact that his striking defense is lacking and hes been dropped multiple times in his last couple fights again lando and now kevin lee who arent even close to the level of strikers mcgregor is.... also mcgregor doesnt load up on his strikes at all , thats what makes him such an elite striker his kill shot is a straight left which he just throws like a piston with 0 load up and it snaps out in a blink of an eye.... ill stick to what i said imo beginning rounds its mcgregors fight , if tony can survive until round 4 mcgregor losses 9/10 times.... either way its a super super tight fight anybody saying one guy or the other will be straight up starched doesnt watch mma

Lando Vannata took the fight with Cucy on very short notice. Ferguson wasn't prepared to deal with his awkward & unusual style, that's why he got hit so often. That's an illusion. Full fight camp would have been very different.

Kevin Lee's hands when he fought Ferguson, were very crisp. You're underestimating Lee's striking by a significant margin. His kickboxing has improved ridiculously since his fights with Leonardo Santos and Massaranduba.

If the 2nd Nate vs Conor fight was very close. And you agree Ferguson is more dangerous than Diaz. How did you conclude that Conor has an advantage?

I might go so far as to say that El Cucuy WILL straight up starch Conor. You're giving Conor's punching power way too much credit. He doesn't have 1 shot KO power unless someone is charging at him the way Aldo did. Conor normally takes 4-5 punches minimum to finish someone. Conor will run out of cardio and takedown defense before Ferguson runs out of chin.

Conor's trainers, they know what I'm saying is true. That's why they're trying to set up another fight with Nate Diaz. They're targeting the guy they know is less dangerous.

[firekillex]

i think theyre actually targeting a fight with tony ferguson now imo
if you think tony ferguson will starch mcgregor you think hell be -200 or more odds then??

mcgregors standup is light years above kevin lees, i like kevin lee a lot and he is improving his boxing a ton i was very impressed with his striking ... but if mcgregor was landing those shots imo thats a tko in the making

id like to make a bet but youre not pro or id say lets put some betpoints

[Sanity Check]

mcgregors standup is light years above kevin lees

Floyd Mayweather sparred Kevin Lee to help him prepare for his fight with Conor. Kevin Lee's striking is very underrated & he has worked with a lot of top talent.

Conor is good at some things but if he doesn't get an early TKO/KO finish against Ferguson, he's going to lose the fight. I don't think Conor will get it.

I might go pro if SBR would stop canceling my baseball plays everytime I won. I don't even bother with their book anymore.

[firekillex]

i dont think floyd sparred with kevin lee at all , i think theyve just sparred or kevin lee has been in his camp before because his main striking coach is a high level boxer whos cool with mayweather.... kevin lee has a ton of potential and is actually one of my favorite fighters at the moment but pure striking wise mcgregor is light years ahead of him.... i hope to see kevin lee vs khabib and mcgregor vs ferguson on the same card would be insane


gl on your bets though , i actually like ferguson ton as well , just really not impressed with his striking defense ... he knows he needs to fix it , well see if he can... mcgregor needs to work his cardio and ferguson needs to work his striking defense well see who can make the most adjustments ( if this fight happens )

[Sanity Check]

Tony Ferguson vs RDA is the fight you should look at to judge where El Cucuy's striking defense is at. Lando Vannata was on 2 weeks notice and no one knew anything about him. Abel Trujillo was like 2-3 years ago.

Kevin Lee has trained out of Floyd's boxing gym for a long time. He has sparred with Floyd to help him prepare for his fights in the past, kind of like how the Diaz bros are known to spar with Andre Ward.

One thing to consider is Tony Ferguson fought Edson Barboza who is one of the best and most technical strikers @ lightweight. Did Barboza dominate Ferguson in the stand up? I'll have to rewatch that 1. That's another good fight to look at to guess how well Ferguson will do against Conor.

[firekillex]

styles make fights , nobody in 155 fights like mcgregor striking wise imo...
barbosa was winning that fight standing up as well but hes muai thai based he doesnt have hands like mcgregor but he has much better leg kicks , mcgregors kicks are more taekowndo kicks that arent super effective in mma other then his stomach tipe kick is solid


rda was a very drawn out 55er i dont think his last few fights were really him and hes striking isnt the greatest imo hes just super aggressive and breaks people.... tony ferguson is actually one of my favorite fighters as well but he has clear striking defensive flaws... but hes super rangy and has amazing elbows with some super solid ground work where hes dangerous in any position

either way in the stand up fresh in the first 2 rounds i think mcgregor will have a solid advantage... well see though

[Thor4140]

Can I get in on this action too? Finally SBR PRO now so this would be my first heh heh

Also you said the fight would never happen. What is the line you would set for if fight takes place vs not?

Where did i say it will never happen

[Thor4140]

Can I get in on this action too? Finally SBR PRO now so this would be my first heh heh

Also you said the fight would never happen. What is the line you would set for if fight takes place vs not?

will see but u only get 280 for 100. I'm being nice to Hugo cause he drives a shitty car

[Thor4140]

whats off about any of that analysis ?? most of what i said is technical facts with a few opinions mixed in

I liked to know also. Pretty much spot on to me.

[turbozed]

Where did i say it will never happen

You didn't. You said it likely wouldn't happen. Totally misquoted you.

will see but u only get 280 for 100. I'm being nice to Hugo cause he drives a shitty car

Fine with that. He's also one of the biggest contributors here so no problem him getting a better price. We'll use same expiry date that Hugo stated unless you'd like other terms. Cheers

[Hugo de Naranja]

Tony Ferguson vs RDA is the fight you should look at to judge where El Cucuy's striking defense is at. Lando Vannata was on 2 weeks notice and no one knew anything about him. Abel Trujillo was like 2-3 years ago.

Kevin Lee has trained out of Floyd's boxing gym for a long time. He has sparred with Floyd to help him prepare for his fights in the past, kind of like how the Diaz bros are known to spar with Andre Ward.

One thing to consider is Tony Ferguson fought Edson Barboza who is one of the best and most technical strikers @ lightweight. Did Barboza dominate Ferguson in the stand up? I'll have to rewatch that 1. That's another good fight to look at to guess how well Ferguson will do against Conor.

I think Ferguson's striking defense is mostly a problem in R1. Since he pressures so relentlessly, he gets hit a lot on the way in. Eventually his opponents can't keep up with his pace. He lost Round 1 on points in the Trujillo, Barboza, Vannata, RDA, and Lee fights before getting comeback wins.

[Hugo de Naranja]

will see but u only get 280 for 100. I'm being nice to Hugo cause he drives a shitty car

Too bad I won't be able to use the Betpoints I win from you to upgrade my whip haha

[turbozed]

I think Ferguson's striking defense is mostly a problem in R1. Since he pressures so relentlessly, he gets hit a lot on the way in. Eventually his opponents can't keep up with his pace. He lost Round 1 on points in the Trujillo, Barboza, Vannata, RDA, and Lee fights before getting comeback wins.

Connor Ruebusch makes a pretty interesting observation about it in the latest Heavy Hands episode. He thinks that Tony's distance management is not just based on vision but based on feel. So he has to feel his opponent with his jab, and maybe take some shots first, before he gets the right range. This sort of 'dancing partner' proprioception is definitely possible, and would explain a lot.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Connor Ruebusch makes a pretty interesting observation about it in the latest Heavy Hands episode. He thinks that Tony's distance management is not just based on vision but based on feel. So he has to feel his opponent with his jab, and maybe take some shots first, before he gets the right range. This sort of 'dancing partner' proprioception is definitely possible, and would explain a lot.

Definitely an interesting point. Connor and Pat are great analysts. I talk fights with them on Twitter every now and again

[turbozed]

Definitely an interesting point. Connor and Pat are great analysts. I talk fights with them on Twitter every now and again

If you don't mind sharing, we should have a chat one of these days to exchange information sources and resources.

One more thing I found that helps is to post my analysis and then ask good analysts and handicappers to find the biggest flaw in my assumptions. Sometimes I can spend a couple hours building a case for an outcome and be missing a key observation that makes the whole thing fall apart.