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This is usually JIBBBY's responsibility here but he's a bit late this time. So I'll go ahead and post the analysis from MMAMania:
One of the most exciting fighters in mixed martial arts (MMA), Justin Gaethje, makes his Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debut this Friday evening (July 7, 2017) when the former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) Lightweight champion squares off with Michael Johnson in the main event of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25: “Redemption” Finale in Las Vegas, Nevada. In addition, Dhiego Lima will face the winner of the match between Jesse Taylor vs. James Krause in the titular finale, while top 155-pound prospects Marc Diakiese and Drakkar Klose do battle, as well as Jared Cannonier slugging it out against Steve Bosse.
We’ve some “Prelims” undercard bouts to get through before then, however, so let’s get to it.
145 lbs.: Gray Maynardvs. Teruto Ishihara
Once inches away from UFC’s Lightweight title, Gray Maynard (12-6-1) has been in freefall since narrowly beating Clay Guida in 2012. “The Bully” is just 1-5 in his last six bouts, including three knockout losses and a lifeless decision loss to Ryan Hall in December.
He will have an inch each of height and reach on Teruto Ishihara (9-3-2).
The charismatic “Yashabo” earned fans with his brawl against Mizuto Hirota, brutal knockouts of Julian Erosa and Horacio Gutiérrez, and his well-documented love of “bitches.” Charisma wasn’t enough to save him from Artem Lobov, who defied two-to-one odds to take a decision in Belfast. He’s scored eight professional wins by knockout.
Yeah, I give up. Maynard is done. Saul Rogers clearly demonstrated that Ryan Hall can be defused with careful top pressure, and yet Maynard avoided the grappling like the plague even when the striking clearly wasn’t working. While Ishihara is a very flawed fighter, his speed and power are more than enough to take out the withering husk of Maynard.
Maynard will likely find one or two early takedowns thanks to Ishihara’s habit of overcommitting to his left hand, there’s only so long he can avoid getting clipped. Ishihara cracks him sometime late in the first round and pours on the hurt during the traditional Maynard meltdown.
Prediction: Ishihara via first-round technical knockout
115 lbs.: Tecia Torres vs. Juliana Lima
Tecia Torres (8-1) — ranked No. 3 on TUF 20 — went 1-2 on the show thanks to the wrestling of Randa Markos and Carla Esparza. She’s fared a bit better in UFC itself, going 4-1 and losing only to Rose Namajunas in a close fight.
She replaces Amanda Ribas, who ran afoul of USADA, on short notice.
Juliana Lima (9-3) originally welcomed Joanna Jedrzejczyk to the Octagon in 2014, then defeated Nina Ansaroff and Ericka Almeida in successive bouts. An 11-month layoff ended with a loss to Carla Esparza, but she managed to right the ship with a decision over JJ Aldrich in December.
“Ju Thai” stands four inches taller than the 5’1” Torres.
This is a much better fight than Ribas-Lima and will give us some good data on Torres. Her speed and volume make her a universal handful on the feet, but she’s struggled with dedicated wrestlers and Lima is nothing if not an enthusiastic takedown artist.
That takedown is pretty much all Torres will have to worry about, though, as her footwork and combinations should let her run circles around “Ju Thai” on the feet. Even with the short notice, her athletic edge will carry her to one of her usual decision wins.
Prediction: Torres via unanimous decision
We have three more TUF 25 Finale “Prelims” fights to preview and predict tomorrow, including one of the most interesting women’s bantamweight prospects in ages. See you then.
We’ve up to five rounds of pure mayhem in store this Friday when knockout machine Justin Gaethje makes his Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) debut against Michael Johnson in Las Vegas, Nevada. The two headline the The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25: “Redemption” Finale, which also features Dhiego Lima against the winner of Jesse Taylor vs. James Krause for all the marbles.Elsewhere on the FOX Sports 1-televised card, Marc Diakiese takes on Drakkar Klose in a clash of top Lightweight prospects and Jared Cannonier faces Steve Bosse in what could be a terrific brawl.
A few Prelims remain, so let’s dive in.
115 lbs.: Angela Hill (6-3) vs. Ashley Yoder (5-2)
Amicably released by the UFC and instructed to hone her craft, Hill did just that with four straight wins under the Invicta banner, winning and defending their strawweight title in the process. She returned to the Octagon in February and put in a Fight of the Night-winning effort against Jessica Andrade that ultimately didn’t go her way. “Overkill” has stopped three professional opponents via strikes.
“The Spider Monkey” scraped past Jodie Esquibel in the elimination round of TUF 23, but Team Cláudia’s Kate Jackson ended her run in the quarterfinals. She went on to submit Amber Brown in her Invicta debut, then joined the UFC proper with a decision loss to Justine Kish in Albany. She will have four inches of height and five inches of reach on Hill.
Yoder would have had a solid shot at beating Hill if they’d fought on TUF 20. Now? I doubt it. Hill’s shored up her takedown defense in a big way and she’s got a huge advantage in the striking. Notably, Hill defeated an excellent Jiu-Jitsu fighter in Livia Renata Souza to win her title, while Yoder has no such experience against quality strikers.
Expect a classic sprawl-and-brawl from Hill as she owns Yoder on the feet until the ref decides to show mercy.
Prediction: Hill by second-round TKO
205 lbs.: Ed Herman (22-12) vs. CB Dollaway (15-5)
Herman, a TUF: 3 veteran whose first Octagon appearance came in 2006, went 9-7 (1 NC) as a UFC middleweight before making the jump to 205 in 2016. He started his light heavyweight career strong with a bonus-winning knockout of Tim Boetsch, but came up short against Ukrainian bruiser Nikita Krylov. Seven of his ten UFC victories have come by stoppage.
“The Doberman” breathed new life into his UFC career with a 4-1 run, the sole loss a bogus split decision against Tim Boetsch. Fortune has not been on his side since, as he dropped three straight and suffered a back injury due to a faulty elevator before his planned light heavyweight debut at UFC 203. This will be his first fight since December of 2015.
Two middleweights in their mid-thirties, each with two knockout losses in their last three fights, fighting at light heavyweight. Divisionally relevant this ain’t.
Could be fun, though. The stylistic matchup favors Dollaway, who packs the harder punches and the more effective takedown game. Herman’s tricky off of his back and proved that he’s not to be slept on standing with the Boetsch knockout, but he’s got too much wear-and-tear to pick him over a dedicated wrestler with solid submission defense. Steady takedowns carry Dollaway to his first light heavyweight victory.
Prediction: Dollaway by unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Jessica Eye (11-6) vs. Aspen Ladd (5-0)
“Evil” Eye, once among the world’s top flyweights thanks to a 58-second submission of Zoila Frausto, has yet to find her place in the UFC’s bantamweight division. She’s gone 1-5 since a drug test scuttled her win over Sarah Kaufman, most recently losing a narrow decision to Bethe Correia at UFC 203. Eye is eight years older than Ladd and made her amateur debut nearly five years before the latter did.
Ladd spent almost seventeen months on the amateur circuit, compiling eight wins and a single loss to Cynthia Calvillo, before making the jump to the pro circuit in 2015. Her five fights, all in Invicta, have seen her pick up wins in both the flyweight and bantamweight divisions, including a decision over Team Lloyd Irvin product Sijara Eubanks in January. She owns three professional wins by (T)KO and one by submission.
The big tragedy with Eye is that with the right judging and no marijuana metabolites, she could easily be 4-3 in the Octagon. She’s a sharp, effective boxer whose greatest struggles have come against bigger, stronger grapplers. That said, she’s not blameless for those close defeats; she can be frustratingly inactive in fights she should be dominating.
And if there’s one thing Ladd’s not, it’s inactive. She’s an extremely active striker, working behind a jackhammer jab and a left hook she’ll throw over and over. Eye’s the cleaner boxer and Ladd isn’t an overpowering takedown artist, but sheer activity and Eye’s own lapses should be enough to carry the UFC newcomer to a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Ladd by unanimous decision
There shall be an abundance of violence. See you Friday, Maniacs.Last edited by turbozed; 07-05-17, 11:27 PM.Comment -
jesse taylor going to win the ultimate fighter
dana white fcked up with semis match making imo... shouldve been krause vs lima for a sweet striking / grappling war then had jesse taylor starch that weird hairy tom guy then have the winner of the war krause vs lima against taylor in final..
regardless taylors wrestling will be to much for lima to handle for 3 rounds imo he will grind out a decision here , lima is a solid long striker and has good grappling but hes basically the same guy as Krause , cant see him stopping the takedowns of JT hereComment -
MMA mania write ups -
115 lbs.: Angela Hill (6-3) vs. Ashley Yoder (5-2)
Amicably released by the UFC and instructed to hone her craft, Hill did just that with four straight wins under the Invicta banner, winning and defending their strawweight title in the process. She returned to the Octagon in February and put in a Fight of the Night-winning effort against Jessica Andrade that ultimately didn’t go her way. “Overkill” has stopped three professional opponents via strikes.
“The Spider Monkey” scraped past Jodie Esquibel in the elimination round of TUF 23, but Team Cláudia’s Kate Jackson ended her run in the quarterfinals. She went on to submit Amber Brown in her Invicta debut, then joined the UFC proper with a decision loss to Justine Kish in Albany. She will have four inches of height and five inches of reach on Hill.
Yoder would have had a solid shot at beating Hill if they’d fought on TUF 20. Now? I doubt it. Hill’s shored up her takedown defense in a big way and she’s got a huge advantage in the striking. Notably, Hill defeated an excellent Jiu-Jitsu fighter in Livia Renata Souza to win her title, while Yoder has no such experience against quality strikers.
Expect a classic sprawl-and-brawl from Hill as she owns Yoder on the feet until the ref decides to show mercy.
Prediction: Hill by second-round TKO
205 lbs.: Ed Herman (22-12) vs. CB Dollaway (15-5)
Herman, a TUF: 3 veteran whose first Octagon appearance came in 2006, went 9-7 (1 NC) as a UFC middleweight before making the jump to 205 in 2016. He started his light heavyweight career strong with a bonus-winning knockout of Tim Boetsch, but came up short against Ukrainian bruiser Nikita Krylov. Seven of his ten UFC victories have come by stoppage.
“The Doberman” breathed new life into his UFC career with a 4-1 run, the sole loss a bogus split decision against Tim Boetsch. Fortune has not been on his side since, as he dropped three straight and suffered a back injury due to a faulty elevator before his planned light heavyweight debut at UFC 203. This will be his first fight since December of 2015.
Two middleweights in their mid-thirties, each with two knockout losses in their last three fights, fighting at light heavyweight. Divisionally relevant this ain’t.
Could be fun, though. The stylistic matchup favors Dollaway, who packs the harder punches and the more effective takedown game. Herman’s tricky off of his back and proved that he’s not to be slept on standing with the Boetsch knockout, but he’s got too much wear-and-tear to pick him over a dedicated wrestler with solid submission defense. Steady takedowns carry Dollaway to his first light heavyweight victory.
Prediction: Dollaway by unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Jessica Eye (11-6) vs. Aspen Ladd (5-0)
“Evil” Eye, once among the world’s top flyweights thanks to a 58-second submission of Zoila Frausto, has yet to find her place in the UFC’s bantamweight division. She’s gone 1-5 since a drug test scuttled her win over Sarah Kaufman, most recently losing a narrow decision to Bethe Correia at UFC 203. Eye is eight years older than Ladd and made her amateur debut nearly five years before the latter did.
Ladd spent almost seventeen months on the amateur circuit, compiling eight wins and a single loss to Cynthia Calvillo, before making the jump to the pro circuit in 2015. Her five fights, all in Invicta, have seen her pick up wins in both the flyweight and bantamweight divisions, including a decision over Team Lloyd Irvin product Sijara Eubanks in January. She owns three professional wins by (T)KO and one by submission.
The big tragedy with Eye is that with the right judging and no marijuana metabolites, she could easily be 4-3 in the Octagon. She’s a sharp, effective boxer whose greatest struggles have come against bigger, stronger grapplers. That said, she’s not blameless for those close defeats; she can be frustratingly inactive in fights she should be dominating.
And if there’s one thing Ladd’s not, it’s inactive. She’s an extremely active striker, working behind a jackhammer jab and a left hook she’ll throw over and over. Eye’s the cleaner boxer and Ladd isn’t an overpowering takedown artist, but sheer activity and Eye’s own lapses should be enough to carry the UFC newcomer to a narrow decision win.
Prediction: Ladd by unanimous decisionComment -
Hey guys... I've re-upped because I like Valentina and Gaethje. How are we not taking Gaethje at +150?
Both fighters with 17 wins but Johnson with 11 losses...gtho
Johnson was cringeworthy recently with idiot talk and the Nunes fist push have me liking these even more. I may submit soon but any thoughts?Comment -
Hey Hugo.
True...I guess the rounds will be close and it will be a judgement call. I know Johnson can take it from that Diaz fight. It is clear to see on tape that Gaethje doesn't mind getting hit which is a concern.
The plus odds, undefeated debut and then the antics make it hard to lay off but I am going to consider my other leans...Comment -
usually dont condone huge lines
but man krause -370 over tom gallichio is literally free money
gonna add him in every parlay possibleComment -
just watched the weigh ins
wowww jesse taylor looks HUGE guys a fckin beast for 170... hes going to lay and pray the shit outta lima
-170 great odds or jesse taylor +100 decision odds
edit +1000 tko for jesse taylor.. could get a ground and pound stoppage here as well worth a small shot with decision imo if you like taylor hereComment -
out of curiosity is anyone on Lima? I am probably staying away but damn did JT look good in those exhibition fights, again. It's additionally impressive this time since he's older and is making 170 multiple times in such a short period, whereas he tore though it @ 185 in his earlier years. Outside of TUF his record is very spotty and has lost to lesser fighters than Lima.
Krause seems ironclad.Comment -
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This Michael Johnson/Justin G has me wondering.. I know MJ has a chin, big time experience and is ready to go in this fight.. Justin seems confident will bring the pressure and try to knock MJ's head off on the flip..
I'm still leaning MJ and by KO but I really am thinking Justin has a chance in this one even with it being his octagon debut...
KO either way is probably the call. I'm also not sure this fight is gonna last long either.. The U1.5 at +140 is very tempting..
TUF 25 - Lightweight 5 rounds - T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - FS1 Fri 7/7 1001 Michael Johnson -160 o1½ -160 11:30PM 1002 Justin Gaethje +140 u1½ +140
1041 Gaethje wins by TKO/KO +250
1037 Johnson wins by TKO/KO +115
FS1 Main Card
Michael
Johnson
"The Menace"
vs
Justin
Gaethje
"The Highlight"
UNITED STATES
Country
UNITED STATES
18-11-0
Record
17-0-0
44%
KO/TKO
82%
11%
SUB
6%
44%
DEC
12%
70 in
Height
71 in
155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs
73 in
Reach
0 in
41 in
Leg Reach
0 inComment -
i was actually impressed with krause he came off a war and hes a 55er who fought a huge 170er , he had a few really nice sweeps from bottom but JT was just to big and strong for him, i think itll be the same kind of story with Lima but Lima has a lesser chin and JT may be able to hurt him from ontop, you can tell both guys really need this win so theyre both coming in , in amazing shape it should be a solid fight, basically comes down to can JT can get the takedowns if he does he wins if not hell be picked apart from distance, but Lima loves throwing body kicks and that weapon will be gone this fight unless he wants to be taken down so not sure hell be able to use some of his best weapons here.. really like -170 i told myself anything -200 or under i would go on JT so i gotta do itComment -
I'd be careful with that under JIB, both guys are super durable. But I do think we might see Gaethje get his first KO loss this fight.
I have money on MJ but I wouldn't be mad at all if Gaethje drags him into a slobberknocker and finishes him.Comment -
If there's live betting, a good possibility would be to wait until the 2nd RD to bet Ladd. Eye should be faster and a better boxer than Ladd, so she might be able to outpoint in the first round while still fresh.
I like Ladd a lot though. She's like the terminator. 1000 yard stare, emotionless and keeps moving forward. Gets tagged often but no change in expression whatsoever. Between rounds, she's extremely focused and listening intently to her corner. Thinking she can put enough pressure on Eye until she eventually breaks her. Don't expect it to be an easy fight, but there's a good possibility she shows up with vastly improved skills than just six months ago when she last fought. She seems to improve extremely fast, especially since she's only 22, this is like the "noob gains of mma" phase. Expect her to still plod forward mechanically, but her last fight she tossed in more feints and head movement.Comment -
I'm already heavy on Jordan Johnson. I think his wrestling and Fortuna's lack of TDD or sub game from bottom against Johnson who has never been stopped is a bad matchup. Money keeps coming in on Fortuna though. What am I missing?Comment -
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Hamilton has never been consistent and Johnson is an undefeated fighter with a large advantage in dictating where this fight takes place. If it's going poorly on the feet he can and will take it down. Hopefully this money is just because Fortuna looked muscley at weigh ins and nobody bothered to go watch his fights prior to Hamilton where he gave up takedowns way too easily.Comment -
Also I agree his striking vs Hamilton looked much improved, but it's the takedown defense that I think will be his undoing.Comment -
Just watched few fights of Gaethje. Only thing he is really giving serious damage is his leg kicks. If Johnson keeps those at bay he should destroy him.Comment -
I think Krause is better in every aspect of athletics and mma probably 99% chance of victory imo
tom is absolutely dog shit , seem so like a nice guy but he's just not a good fighter his stand up has many many holes and he doesn't no have good wrestling so he basically can't get his RNC unless in a scramble. Even on the ground I can't see him subbing Krause imo..
free money team hugoComment -
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Both guys are durable though and I can't argue that..