UFC on FOX 23: Shevchenko vs. Pena (January 28, 2017)

3 Team Parlay

1/28/17 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Francis Zavier N'Gannou -425* vs Andrei Arlovski

1/28/17 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Nate Marquardt/Sam Alvey Over 1½ -135*

1/28/17 6:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Li Jingliang -160* vs Bobby Nash

JC2008 · 01-24-17, 01:10 AM

- My best advice on the Alvey fight is to not bet on it altogether... My instinct says Nate by decision but again, he could very easily get put on queer street by one shot.

Jibbby -- I agree that Masvidal scorecards or no action may be the best (draw even!??!), Cerrone has won how many fights in a row now... Masvidal has been consistently f ucked by the judges. We'll see.

All I know is Ngannou is a strong f ucker, as evidenced by that disgusting Kimura sub in his last fight.

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by JC2008

- My best advice on the Alvey fight is to not bet on it altogether... My instinct says Nate by decision but again, he could very easily get put on queer street by one shot.

Jibbby -- I agree that Masvidal scorecards or no action may be the best (draw even!??!), Cerrone has won how many fights in a row now... Masvidal has been consistently f ucked by the judges. We'll see.

All I know is Ngannou is a strong f ucker, as evidenced by that disgusting Kimura sub in his last fight.

Was live for that sub. Ngannou fuckingg destroyed Hamilton's arm. Cerrone has won 4 in a row.

JC2008 · 01-24-17, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Was live for that sub. Ngannou fuckingg destroyed Hamilton's arm. Cerrone has won 4 in a row.

All I know is Arvlovski is 398 years old so I don't see how he is going to hold FN off of him. Either way, let us all work together and cash the f uck in!

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by JC2008

All I know is Arvlovski is 398 years old so I don't see how he is going to hold FN off of him. Either way, let us all work together and cash the f uck in!

Wish I didn't miss the (-280) opener. That lasted seconds

JIBBBY · 01-24-17, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I see that angle but I still think Alvey takes it. I guess we'll see. If the fight makes it to the bell it will probably be awful lol.

I can't get that Elias fight out my head.. Alvey looked like shiiit..

JC2008 · 01-24-17, 01:36 AM

- Agreed... Like I said, My instinct says this is legitimately a coin-flip fight. Seeing Nate win a decision would not shock me in the least. I'm staying away. Maybe LIVE bet it with Alvey R2 or 3 if the odds are stupid-good but aside from that.. there's just too much good boxing to pass up on for me to allow the books to shit on my head in this fight.

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 10:10 AM

The rest of the card is up on 5Dimes. Jiangliang went from -140 to -205 quickly. I was able to put a bet on him at -190.

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

The rest of the card is up on 5Dimes. Jiangliang went from -140 to -205 quickly. I was able to put a bet on him at -190.

Yeah I'm surprised to see them open these odds so early in the day.

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 10:25 AM

Spicely went from a dog to a favorite pretty quickly, as he should be.

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:04 PM

I'm not so sure honestly...Spicely pulls guard....tough to lay 2:1 on that when you know he will 1/2 give up the TD....the Thiago win was simply a fluke.,

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Spicely went from a dog to a favorite pretty quickly, as he should be.

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

I'm not so sure honestly...Spicely pulls guard....tough to lay 2:1 on that when you know he will 1/2 give up the TD....the Thiago win was simply a fluke.,

Do you have to lay 2/1 though?

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:17 PM

IMO Bobby Nash does not impress....BIG for the division....but he slows down and does not APPEAR that he will have enough power to KO The Leech....IMO the leech will Grapple him to death...

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:17 PM

No your right....misread that....he's 135 Now.......

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Do you have to lay 2/1 thought?

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:19 PM

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:20 PM

Hell-it seems like over under 1 round....SAM usually dances for a SOLID 1:30-2M at the beginning...

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

IMO Bobby Nash does not impress....BIG for the division....but he slows down and does not APPEAR that he will have enough power to KO The Leech....IMO the leech will Grapple him to death...

Leech him perhaps?

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 02:27 PM

LOL -Zing! For sure...he will overload him IMO....Nash last win didn't even look that good IMO----just watched it..

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Leech him perhaps?

valueguyman · 01-24-17, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

The rest of the card is up on 5Dimes. Jiangliang went from -140 to -205 quickly. I was able to put a bet on him at -190.

why do you like the leech on this one?

his ground game is poor, his striking is good but not too special and his chin might not be the strongest because hes getting rocked by single shots in recent fights. Nash on the other hand is a wrestler who has been KOing some vet fighters from regional, his striking is technical using a widestance and playing distance. He has the wrestling to take LI down and make it difficult for him.

I think Leech is the better striker, a little bigger and has fought (but lost) to much better opponents, but Nash reminds me of less developed version of Colby Covington.. Which might be enough to defeat Leech. Odds makers got this right, this is a trap for betting on Leech imo and you're not getting rewarded enough with Nash.

Pass or parlay Nash imo

Sanity Check · 01-24-17, 02:57 PM

Denver Colorado's pepsi center is @ 5,280 feet elevation, if I'm remembering right.

Anyone fighting on this card who didn't acclimate their cardio could lose their fight.

& more overs usually hit due to people fighting more conservatively not wanting to gas out.

Hugo de Naranja · 01-24-17, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Denver Colorado's pepsi center is @ 5,280 feet elevation, if I'm remembering right.

Anyone fighting on this card who didn't acclimate their cardio could lose their fight.

& more overs usually hit due to people fighting more conservatively not wanting to gas out.

Hmm that's an interesting take on things Sanity. I'm from Denver and I've noticed that altitude has affected some friends who have visited for the first few days that they're here so it's worth watching to see who's in CO early.

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 03:14 PM

was just there for a while---actually took a tour of the pepsi center ...that was also going into my thinking of Nash gassing and the LEEECH being too much...(great point to bring that up though.....it's HUGE to an athlete-not so much to an average JOE.)

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hmm that's an interesting take on things Sanity. I'm from Denver and I've noticed that altitude has affected some friends who have visited for the first few days that they're here so it's worth watching to see who's in CO early.

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 03:15 PM

The KO power USUALLY goes quick and the punches get sloppy...

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 03:21 PM

The Leech has pretty amazing striking. He was beating up Nakamura standing and got a couple recent KOs. Nash isn't the type that does too many takedowns, so I think Leech can win a standup war. I see the line is down to -160 now.

Originally posted by valueguyman

why do you like the leech on this one?

his ground game is poor, his striking is good but not too special and his chin might not be the strongest because hes getting rocked by single shots in recent fights. Nash on the other hand is a wrestler who has been KOing some vet fighters from regional, his striking is technical using a widestance and playing distance. He has the wrestling to take LI down and make it difficult for him.

I think Leech is the better striker, a little bigger and has fought (but lost) to much better opponents, but Nash reminds me of less developed version of Colby Covington.. Which might be enough to defeat Leech. Odds makers got this right, this is a trap for betting on Leech imo and you're not getting rewarded enough with Nash.

Pass or parlay Nash imo

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 03:22 PM

I like your bets. I picked the same ones. Alvey and Marquardt are both cautious. Only risk is if Alvey KOs Marquardt, don't think it would happen the other way.

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

PaperTrail07 · 01-24-17, 03:27 PM

Good Stuff.... Yeah I think when all is said and done we would have loved to bet more on Li....

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 04:58 PM

Money coming back in on Nash. Li is now -140, where it opened, after going as high as -205.

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 05:51 PM

There has been a trend of UFC new guys kicking ass that haven't looked especially that great in the smaller organizations.

JIBBBY · 01-24-17, 06:39 PM

^^^To fade the Asian or not to fade the Asian, that is the question?..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jingliang-Li-26381

He's got a solid chin but his wrestling is a bit suspect, can lose by decision if in with a good wrestler...

I gotta see some more footage on Nash.. What are your guys take on BOBBY NASH so far?.. I really don't know the guy that well.. Just starting to cap this fight.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bobby-Nash-75423

UFC on Fox 23 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Pepsi Center - Denver, Colorado, United States - FS1


Sat 1/28	1601 Bobby Nash	+120	o2½ +100
6:30PM	1602 Li Jingliang	-140	u2½ -120

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 10:07 PM

The Leech is wicked on the feet. It looks like Nash likes to keep it standing from what I've seen in his fights so I favor the Leech. If Nash takes him down, that could be trouble.

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^^^To fade the Asian or not to fade the Asian, that is the question?..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jingliang-Li-26381

He's got a solid chin but his wrestling is a bit suspect, can lose by decision if in with a good wrestler...

I gotta see some more footage on Nash.. What are your guys take on BOBBY NASH so far?.. I really don't know the guy that well.. Just starting to cap this fight.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bobby-Nash-75423

UFC on Fox 23 - Welterweight 3 rounds - Pepsi Center - Denver, Colorado, United States - FS1


Sat 1/28	1601 Bobby Nash	+120	o2½ +100
6:30PM	1602 Li Jingliang	-140	u2½ -120

Rich Benjamins · 01-24-17, 10:08 PM

Alvey said he thinks his fight with Marquardt will be "fight of the night." I hope so, I bet the over.

Sam Alvey not worried about rankings but only wanting “To make all the MMA fans in the world love watching me fight.”

https://fiveroundmma.com/2017/01/23/sam-alvey-not-worried-about-rankings-but-only-wanting-to-make-all-the-mma-fans-in-the-world-love-watching-me-fight/

goldenpenny · 01-24-17, 11:00 PM

For everyone choosing Valentina, what do you think will happen if Pena sticks to what she does best and goes for the take down the whole fight?

JIBBBY · 01-25-17, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by Rich Benjamins

Alvey said he thinks his fight with Marquardt will be "fight of the night." I hope so, I bet the over.

https://fiveroundmma.com/2017/01/23/...hing-me-fight/

Sketchy taking that over, both have finishing power.. Smiling Sammy can drop Nate if he taps that chin.. Nate is borderline glass at this point... On the flip Nate can strike with everything and the kitchen sink if he thinks he has you rocked and backing up.. Very capable of finishing a fighter even like Sam Alvey. Just ask T-Wood about that...

If Nate runs and plays the patty cake game at distance with the cement footed Alvey then Nate wins by decision probably.. Nate is a cerebral fighter so I wouldn't put that past his game planning..

Tough fight to get a grip on IMO..

I've capped it and that's what I come up with in a nut shell.. My gut says go with Nate though.. Just more athletic with more tools in the shed.. Nate's also fought the best in the sport Sammy has not...

Hugo de Naranja · 01-25-17, 01:39 AM

A quick list of some guys that Cowboy Cerrone has beaten in his UFC Career. All of them have solid UFC records and have been ranked in the top 15.

1. Charles Oliveira
2. Jeremy Stephens
3. Evan Dunham
4. Edson Barboza
5. Eddie Alvarez
6. Myles Jury
7. Benson Henderson
8. Alex Oliveira
9. Patrick Cote
10. Rick Story

JIBBBY · 01-25-17, 02:44 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Denver Colorado's pepsi center is @ 5,280 feet elevation, if I'm remembering right.

Anyone fighting on this card who didn't acclimate their cardio could lose their fight.

& more overs usually hit due to people fighting more conservatively not wanting to gas out.

Hmmm? Thanks for that tip Sanity.. Something to consider for sure..

Rich Benjamins · 01-25-17, 08:22 AM

Yea, a lot of people are taking Nate. I do think Sam will take it. He doesn't seem to allow himself to get rocked very much, only happened vs Brunson. And he plays the point fighting game well as long as his opponent doesn't run away like what happened with Theodoro. On paper, you might give Nate the edge, but Sam is a sharp puncher and will likely point himself to victory like Tavares did vs Nate.

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Sketchy taking that over, both have finishing power.. Smiling Sammy can drop Nate if he taps that chin.. Nate is borderline glass at this point... On the flip Nate can strike with everything and the kitchen sink if he thinks he has you rocked and backing up.. Very capable of finishing a fighter even like Sam Alvey. Just ask T-Wood about that...

If Nate runs and plays the patty cake game at distance with the cement footed Alvey then Nate wins by decision probably.. Nate is a cerebral fighter so I wouldn't put that past his game planning..

Tough fight to get a grip on IMO..

I've capped it and that's what I come up with in a nut shell.. My gut says go with Nate though.. Just more athletic with more tools in the shed.. Nate's also fought the best in the sport Sammy has not...