UFC FIGHT NIGHT 98: RDA vs FERGUSON (NOV 5)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Oliveira missed weight by 9 pounds

[JIBBBY]

Oliveira missed weight by 9 pounds

Wow not even close either.. Not sure how to play that fight now???? Still like Oliveira I guess. Geezz!!!!

[Thrilla]

- Paul Shaughnessy (@PaulShag) and Cody Saftic (@CJSaftic) break down all the action from UFC Fight Night Mexico City.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Oliveira missed weight by 9 pounds

what a disgrace..I hope Lamas beats the shit out of him

[JAKEPEAVY21]

My strategy this year is very simple and that's just to play the hot teams (at home especially) and don't get spooked with the big spreads - with the strong hot offenses - I also like and have been playing the overs regardless of the big lines and defenses they face also.....

For example - Like last night I took Atlanta -4.5 (x2) because I knew how potent that Falcons offense is.. Figured they would simply out score the Tampa Bucs which they did... Liked the Over as well.. I was right..

So teams like the Patriots I have also been riding since Brady came back, Greenbay finally looked good last week so I think that carries over to this week at home, Miama Fins got a big win against Buffalo last week so I like them against the struggling Jets at home, Dallas Cowboys just keep finding ways to win and cover so I've been riding them all year, lastly Drew Brees and that offense is as potent as they come right now and like the Falcons I think they will simply out score the 49ers (quarterback struggles) and cover this week..

In the past I would get spooked by large spreads or large overs and pass, not this year.

That's about it for my change in NFL capping.. How about you Jake? Got any tips to share that you look for in general?

not a bad strategy, ride the hot hand...I do like green bay this week as well but I'm awful at the NFL..

I honestly don't really have a strategy. I do try to keep an eye on teams that are hot as well as teams that are awful and play or fade accordingly. I've been selecting quite a few overs in college, usually when 2 teams that have good offenses and poor defenses play each other and that has worked pretty well.

Sometimes I look for spots when a good team lost the week prior and usually they come out swinging the next game.

Also I try and look for teams that I think are over or undervalued based on public perception.

best of luck this week

[CaptChaos145]

Unc you're selling this Russian short.. Tough Stylistic match up I believe for Dariush going into this one IMO... Russian I think is better with his striking and hits harder..

Dariush probably better on the ground..

We'll see what happens and where this fight goes?

The Russian IS the better striker and Dariush IS the better ground fighter. Dariush needs to get this fight to the ground. Russian waits & likes to counter. Dariush plays right into his game plan. The only way I bet this fight is Dariush winning and hedge with the Russian winning by ko.

[JIBBBY]

The Russian IS the better striker and Dariush IS the better ground fighter. Dariush needs to get this fight to the ground. Russian waits & likes to counter. Dariush plays right into his game plan. The only way I bet this fight is Dariush winning and hedge with the Russian winning by ko.

Yep, can Daruish close the distance and actually put the Russian on his back is the million dollar question? If the fight remains standing the entire time I agree Daruish might get dropped and or a lose the decision on points..

[UncleChael]

Yep, can Daruish close the distance and actually put the Russian on his back is the million dollar question? If the fight remains standing the entire time I agree Daruish might get dropped and or a lose the decision on points..

I dont agree with tbe Russian being better striker. Ill watch more tape coach. Not tryna come at your neck, i just have high praise for Dariush.

[JIBBBY]

I dont agree with tbe Russian being better striker. Ill watch more tape coach. Not tryna come at your neck, i just have high praise for Dariush.

All good Unc, I'm not ruling out the fact that Daruish can't win this fight.. Like I said if this fight hits the ground I then do like Daruish's chances...

Good luck Unc.. I'll probably end up hedging this fight myself.. Just slightly leaning towards the Russian because of his striking and power that's it.... Russian is also on a very long 12 fight win streak so that is not easy to over look either.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Rashid-Magomedov-41524

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Oliveira missed weight by 9 pounds

Wow this is after 3 Brazilians missed weight (Lineker, Oliveira, Dias) at the last fight night card.

[JIBBBY]

Last post off topic... Locky^^^ noticed all your beat the prick badges..

We got another solid football capper lurking in the MMA section fellas!!!! ..

Solid play bud!!!! 59th place beats me keep it up..

59

THE_LOCKSMITH

25-14-2

64.10 %

L 1

51.0

+10.02

4 pending

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[eddycash]

Hi lol

[UncleChael]

The house on El Cucuy...

[TPowell]

Looking at Montano fight now. Fight screams Montano winning to me by garbage decision or a sub but can't decide which. No value in taking him on the ML at +120 or so. Will probably just pass. If these two end up rolling very long, one will probably get a sub. Griffin's sub game isn't good but Montano can do stupid stuff. I think Montano can get the fight to the ground though, which is different from most people.

[JIBBBY]

The house on El Cucuy...

House it is and I'm sold on it but only betting the shack myself.. El Cucuy it is though!!! Let's get it Unc!!!

[TPowell]

Think the much safer play is RDA/Ferg don't make it to the 5th round at -125

[GoBlue77]

Oliveira missed weight by 9 pounds

super unprofessional. all in lamas.

[JIBBBY]

super unprofessional. all in lamas.

Just because a fighter misses weight doesn't mean he will always lose.. Sounds to me like Oli gave up trying to cut weight early on and will be fresh and ready to go tomorrow night..

We will see???? Tread with caution.....

[LBfightlife]

^^ Diego was never all there Locky.. I'm rolling with him.. I think it's a great style match up for him.. This is how I'm playing it so far..

$50.00

$340.00

Pending

11/5/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1305 Sanchez wins inside distance +680* vs Not Sanchez inside distance

$153.00

$336.60

Pending

11/5/16 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1201 Diego Sanchez +220* vs Marcin Held

Still might hedge with the Held sub but haven't yet... Hard to envision Diego tapping from an ankle lock.. I think he'd rather have it break in a fight like this..

Could Held win by decision like he did against Wil Brooks perhaps but I doubt it, Diego is a high energy fast paced fighter so I'm kinda ruling that out especially since this fight is in Mexico.. I'm not convinced Held can out wrestle and put DS on his back either in this fight..

1231 Held wins by submission

+250

Jibbs, I know you are the undisputed king here and all.. and I can't disagree with your read here.. But you recall that Diego got his face (literally) by Joe Luazon last time out.. Do you think he could recover that quickly and be ready for another war? I read that his nose and orbital were badly broken, not to mention yee ole' brain.

If he can come back looking sharp from that, more power to him. After seeing that surgical boxing clinic he absorbed last time out i'd like to see him take longer time off.

[lokihayze]

I like diegos chances in this one but I also like
polo
Beltran
Ferguson
Briones
Grasso
Montano
Thoughts? Anyone else thinking the same?

[bjpenn85]

I like diegos chances in this one but I also like
polo
Beltran


if you have long term goals, you should probably stay out of most of these fights. Odds are well set and potentially you loose more than you gain.
Ferguson
Briones
Grasso
Montano
Thoughts? Anyone else thinking the same?

if you have long term goals, you should probably pass on most of these fights. Odds are well set and potentially you loose more than you gain. Maybe you succeed after betting on this event in particular, but most of these types of cards your ending up as a looser. Thats at least my opinion.

[JIBBBY]

Jibbs, I know you are the undisputed king here and all.. and I can't disagree with your read here.. But you recall that Diego got his face (literally) by Joe Luazon last time out.. Do you think he could recover that quickly and be ready for another war? I read that his nose and orbital were badly broken, not to mention yee ole' brain.
If he can come back looking sharp from that, more power to him. After seeing that surgical boxing clinic he absorbed last time out i'd like to see him take longer time off.

Diego wouldn't be cleared to fight if his face still was still busted up or broken.. That's not gonna be a problem.. Held is not a big puncher anyways.. Diego is as tough as nails anyways and face injuries never stopped him from bringing it in the past.. I think he will be ready to go...

I have been wrong before though and with that being said, Held is no push over and I know this...

I've actually bet on Held for many fights in the past and won as he was usually the dog going into fights, I think he's good fighter, mostly a one trick leg submission pony though.... Held also has very good trip take downs, his stand up is just good enough to set up those take downs as well..

Still Diego is fighting in Mexico and should be fired up for this one..I think his stand up is as good as Helds which isn't saying much, I think his wrestling and Jits is just as good also.. Diego has very good cardio and Held's cardio may come into question late in this fight if it's a war....

I think it will be a close fight with Diego maybe getting the late pound out stoppage.. Or maybe a decision win.. I think it's worth the dog try but no guarantees for sure as Diego is flirting with can status and did get rudely KO'd by Joe like you said in his last fight...

We see what happens? I'm on Diego as the dog and rolling the dice.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

really looking forward to the main event

I'm on el cucuy but Dos Anjos looked really good at weighins

[richie360]

Signing a contract to fight at weight and missing it by 9 pounds! Fight really should be scrapped and Oliveria should be cut!

[JIBBBY]

Couple of stand up brawlers in this one... Alex Nicholson has never gone the distance to a decision so keep that in mind.. I see a KO happening one way or the other.. Pick a KO prop any KO prop

Odds are good enough to hedge them both just saying... I highly doubt this one ends by decision or sub..

I'm going heavy on the Alvey KO prop and hedging with the Nicholson KO prop just to cover..

2029 Nicholson wins by TKO/KO

+361

2033 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+105

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"
vs
Alex
Nicholson
"The Spartan"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

28-8-0, 1NC
Record
7-2-0

64%
KO/TKO
86%

11%
SUB
14%

25%
DEC
0%

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Picks:
Enrique Barzola Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Marco Polo Reyes Round 2 KO
Sam Alvey Round 2 TKO
Henry Briones Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Erick Montano Round 2 Submission
Marco Beltran Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Erik Perez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Alexa Grasso Round 3 TKO
Rashid Magomedov Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Martin Bravo Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Charles Oliveira Round 2 Submission
Diego Sanchez Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Rafael Dos Anjos Unanimous Decision (49-46 x2, 48-47)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Enrique Barzola ($9,500)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Erik Perez ($8,700)
Marco Beltran ($7,700)
Henry Briones ($7,600)
Diego Sanchez ($7,200)

Risk: 1u


UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alexa Grasso ($9,300)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Marco Polo Reyes ($8,900)
Charles Oliveira ($8,100)
Erick Montano ($7,400)
Diego Sanchez ($7,200)

Risk: .2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC Fight Night 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson

Fight #1: Barzola vs. Avila:
Barzola Decision (-114) 1.14u to win 1u

Fight #2: Polo Reyes vs. Novelli:
Polo Reyes Round 3 (+950) .25u

Fight #3: Alvey vs. Nicholson:
Alvey Round 2 (+425) 2u
Alvey Decision (+461) 1u
Alvey Decision (+529) .5u
Alvey Round 3 (+1000) 1u

Hedge(s):
Nicholson Scorecards = No Action (+210) 1u
Nicholson KO/TKO (+410) 1u

Fight #4: Briones vs. Silva de Andrade
Briones (+145) 1u
Briones Round 3 (+1975) .25u

Fight #5: Griffin vs. Montano:
Montano Submission (+575) .5u
Montano Round 2 (+975) .25u
Montano Round 3 (+1825) .25u

Hedge:
Griffin Submission (+1080) .25u

Fight #6: Beltran vs. Soto:
Beltran (+105) 1u
Beltran (+135) 1u
Beltran Decision (+286) .5u
Beltran Submission (+1200) .25u

Hedge:
Soto Round 3 (+1075) .5u

Fight #7: Perez vs. Arantes:
Arantes Scorecards = No Action (+176) 1u
Arantes Submission (+1005) .5u

Hedge(s):
Perez -3.5 (+140) 1u
Perez Decision (+147) 1u

Fight #8: Grasso (DEBUT) vs. Clark:
Grasso KO/TKO (+475) .5u
Grasso Round 3 (+1150) .25u

Fight #9: Magomedov vs. Dariush:
Dariush KO/TKO (+755) .5u

Fight #10: Bravo vs. Puelles:
No Bet

Fight #11: Lamas vs. Oliveira:
Oliveira Submission (+325) 1.5u

Hedge(s):
Lamas KO/TKO (+460) .5u
Lamas Round 1 (+575) .5u

Fight #12: Held (DEBUT) vs. Sanchez:
Sanchez (+225) 1u
Sanchez Decision (+350) 1u
Sanchez Round 3 (+2550) .125u

Hedge:
Held Round 1 (+375) .5u

Fight #13: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson:
Dos Anjos (-120) 4.8u to win 4u
Dos Anjos/Ferguson Under 3.5 Rounds (+130) 3u
Dos Anjos -5.5 (+150) 1u
Dos Anjos -5.5 (+155) 1u
Dos Anjos Decision (+235) 1u
Dos Anjos Unanimous Decision (+370) .5u
Dos Anjos KO/TKO (+393) 1u
Dos Anjos Round 1 (+850) .5u
Dos Anjos/Ferguson Draw (+6500) .25u

Hedge(s):
Ferguson Scorecards = No Action (+112) 2u
Ferguson Submission (+675) 1.5u
Ferguson Round 1 (+900) .5u
Ferguson Round 2 (+1100) .5u
Ferguson Decision (+755) .5u
Ferguson Split/Majority Decision (+970) .5u
Ferguson Split/Majority Decision (+1545) .5u

Prop Parlays:
Grasso -3.5/Oliveira+Lamas Won’t Go Distance (+163) 1u
Barzola-3.5/Polo Reyes -3.5/Alvey -3.5 (+325) .5u
Barzola Decision/Briones Decision/Perez Decision (+1682) .25u
Briones Decision/Perez Decision/Magomedov Decision (+2053) .25u
Polo Reyes/Grasso -3.5/Magomedov/Oliveira+Lamas WGD/Sanchez+Held GD/Dos Anjos+Ferguson WGD (+2149) .25u
Alvey Round 2/Held Round 1 (+2750) .25u
Alvey Decision/Dos Anjos Round 1 (+5229) .125u
Nicholson Round 1/Dos Anjos Round 1 (+6313) .125u

Note: GD = Goes Distance, WGD = Won't Go Distance

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+238) .5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+574) .5u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+1585) .25u
Over 10.5 Fights Go Distance (+6225) .25u

[Hugo de Naranja]

I agree with BJ that there's not a ton of betting value on this card since the lines are mostly set pretty well. As a result, I kept my exposure pretty low on this card but will have some huge bets for UFC 205. Best of luck to everyone tonight.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Couple of stand up brawlers in this one... Alex Nicholson has never gone the distance to a decision so keep that in mind.. I see a KO happening one way or the other.. Pick a KO prop any KO prop

Odds are good enough to hedge them both just saying... I highly doubt this one ends by decision or sub..

I'm going heavy on the Alvey KO prop and hedging with the Nicholson KO prop just to cover..

2029 Nicholson wins by TKO/KO

+361

2033 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+105

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims



Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"
vs
Alex
Nicholson
"The Spartan"

UNITED STATES
Country
USA

28-8-0, 1NC
Record
7-2-0

64%
KO/TKO
86%

11%
SUB
14%

25%
DEC
0%

Really hoping Nicholson's chin can hold up for a round here so I can cash Alvey R2, R3, or Decision at big odds. I think you've found a good way to play it Jibs. Let's say Alvey Round 2 KO so we can both cash our bets.

[UncleChael]

It's finally here ... 10 hours til the fight of the year. I think Sanchez gets it done also.

[UncleChael]

UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Enrique Barzola ($9,500)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Erik Perez ($8,700)
Marco Beltran ($7,700)
Henry Briones ($7,600)
Diego Sanchez ($7,200)

Risk: 1u


UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alexa Grasso ($9,300)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Marco Polo Reyes ($8,900)
Charles Oliveira ($8,100)
Erick Montano ($7,400)
Diego Sanchez ($7,200)

Risk: .2u

Dariush switches to a pick-em. Trying Draftkings out.
UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alexa Grasso ($9,300)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Erik Perez (8,700)
Tony Ferguson (7,900)
Beneil Dariush (7,800)
Diego Sanchez (7,200)
Rem. Salary:0

[JIBBBY]

^^^Dariush line is even now.. I saw that.. On the Russian for the straight win and hedged with the Dariush Sub...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dariush switches to a pick-em. Trying Draftkings out.
UFC FN 98: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alexa Grasso ($9,300)
Sam Alvey ($9,100)
Erik Perez (8,700)
Tony Ferguson (7,900)
Beneil Dariush (7,800)
Diego Sanchez (7,200)
Rem. Salary:0

I like this lineup. Best of luck UNC!