condit is an elite talent at 170 for years , hes a notch above all those guys who maias beat tbh, 5 rounder i just highly doubt maia will be able to keep up with condits pace and if you fade with condit across the cage from you its gonna be a long long night they dont call him the natural born killer for no reason.. you can show gifs and examples of maia taking down lower level guys non are top 5 quality thats always been maias weakness anytime he faces top 5 talent he usually losses , his recent win streak is most definitely impressive hes been hit like 2 times but all against fringe top 10-15 talent , talented nonetheless but condits a different animal especially in a 5 round fight...i could name 10 people easily off the top of my head they have better wrestling then maia as well, hendricks definitely went downhill lately but when he fought condit he was the real hendricks , gsp would mop the floor with maia wrestling wise , i think maia wouldnt be able to come close to taking down woodley either , lawler would be super close i could see that being 50/50 and wonderboy i doubt he could even touch him yet take him down .... i dont see maia doing well againt anybody in the top 5 tbh but thats just me well see this saturday boys
-
Comment -
i think the fight goes to decision unless lauzon gets the finish... miller to me looks like hes dropping off from age/ a ton of fights (34)
watching his past fights .. win against gomi which is nothing imo gomi is an absolute bum at this point even though hes an mma legend... loss to diego sanchez who lauzon just completely starched , loss to michael chiesa i think hes a slightly better version then lauzon , split win against danny castillo which was super close , loss to dariush another similiar version to lauzon imo but throws more kicks, loss to donald cerronne thats the one i dont give him much grief about hes an elite striker but most of those losses are to guys on the level of lauzon with similiar skill sets... miller hasnt impressed me lately all and lauzon has looked good but lauzon tends to look super good for a few fights then randomly losses a fight outta nowhere where you think he can win.... but for +305 ill prob take a small stab with lauzon decision i give him the 60/40 edge in this fight and say 65-70% chance or so he gets the decision if he winsComment -
I'm agreeing with Tpow saying this fight probably doesn't go the full 5 rounds.. Both guys getting up in age both will be looking to finish I believe..
Maia will take the back, Condit will eventually give up the neck and get choked just like Matt Brown did... Maia by RNC or Darse is my best guess..
$100.00 $430.00 Pending 8/27/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Maia wins by submission +430* vs Any other result
Might still hedge the Condit by KO prop.. Feeling a bit greedy and not sure I wanna play this fight conservative with the hedge at only +170 odds.. Still pondering on this..
DM better watch out for those knees though.. I'm just a bit worried about that..1041 Condit wins by TKO/KO +170
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-24-16, 02:57 AM.Comment -
I'm agreeing with Tpow saying this fight probably doesn't go the full 5 rounds.. Both guys getting up in age both will be looking to finish I believe..
Maia will take the back, Condit will eventually give up the neck and get choked just like Matt Brown did... Maia by RNC or Darse is my best guess..
$100.00 $430.00 Pending 8/27/16 9:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1035 Maia wins by submission +430* vs Any other result
Might still hedge the Condit by KO prop.. Feeling a bit greedy and not sure I wanna play this fight conservative with the hedge at only +170 odds.. Still pondering on this..
1041 Condit wins by TKO/KO +170
Both those plays are highest likely outcomes imo.. Good ideaComment -
UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit (also known as UFC on Fox 21) is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) that will be held on August 27, 2016 at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.[1]
Ultimate Fighting Championship August 27, 2016 Rogers Arena Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 UFC on Fox: Maia vs Condit UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Contents
Background
This will be the second time a UFC on Fox event is held outside the United States (the first one was UFC on Fox: Gustafsson vs. Johnson, in Sweden, in January 2015) and the first time in Canada.
The event is expected to be headlined by a welterweight contest between former WEC Welterweight Champion and former interim UFC Welterweight Champion Carlos Condit and former UFC Middleweight Championship challenger Demian Maia. The bout was scheduled to take place at UFC 202, but was moved a week later to headline this event.[2]
The Ultimate Fighter: China winner Ning Guangyou was expected to face Marlon Vera at UFC 202. However, due to an out-of-competition failed test and following investigation concluding Guangyou ingested the substance without fault or negligence, the bout was moved to this event.[3] In turn, the bout was postponed again due to alleged vısa issues for Guangyou, which restricted the timing of his travel.[4]
Josh Emmett was expected to face promotional newcomer Jeremy Kennedy at the event. However, Emmett pulled out of the fight on August 19 with an undisclosed injury.[5] He was replaced by promotional newcomer Alex Ricci.[6]
Official fight card
[7]Welterweight Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit Featherweight Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira Women's Strawweight Paige VanZant vs. Bec Rawlings Lightweight Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller Middleweight Sam Alvey vs. Kevin Casey Featherweight Enrique Barzola vs. Kyle Bochniak Middleweight Garreth McLellan vs. Alessio Di Chirico Lightweight Shane Campbell vs. Felipe Silva Lightweight Chad Laprise vs. Thibault Gouti Middleweight Ryan Janes vs. Adam Hunter Lightweight Alex Ricci vs. Jeremy Kennedy
Last edited by Thrilla; 08-24-16, 02:57 AM.Comment -
I would so love to see a late finish by condit. Maia is terrible for the sport, no one can deny it. I'm on the over too. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see maia win the first 3, either one win round 4 and then maia survives round 5 for a W.Comment -
maybe the judges do their job because in that scenario I'd imagine round 5 being 10-8 condit after the scoring changes.Comment -
Anyone know anything useful about any of the prospects on this card?Comment -
It's a shame most MMA fans feel that way.. Probably why the UFC heads are making him work so hard to earn that next title shot.
You're surely not gonna get the exciting KO finish from DM, but you will see mastery on the ground.. If you're a fan of Jits like I am you can then appreciate Maia. He doesn't exactly lay and pray like a wrestler might either...
Cash it again!!!.. Maia has been a money tree for me over the last couple years as I've absolutely cleaned up betting big on the guy in his last 5 fight wins.. Hense the avatar pic.. RSPK shown..
I say the Demian Maia winning streak continues....
Comment -
Draws are a long shot.. You'd be lucky if you get 1 draw happening with every 2 or 3 cards.. Still if you keep laying a 5 spot on each draw prop with every fight you will eventually hit and get paid..
Can be profitable if all the draw prop odds remain in +6000's, +7000's range... Hmmmm?
I typically look for the draw in live betting when I see a point deduction or a 10-8 round.. I've played that a few times and still can't say for sure if I ever hit on a draw play??? Probably not if I had to guess.. Draws are tough to hit...Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-24-16, 04:12 PM.Comment -
Can't wait to watch condit win.Comment -
big fan and maia is still terrible for the sport. His BJJ is not what is winning him fights. Anyone cal slap on a rnc, he just manhandles people and doesn't risk much until they are desperate. Very boring to watch.It's a shame most MMA fans feel that way.. Probably why the UFC heads are making him work so hard to earn that next title shot.
You're surely not gonna get the exciting KO finish from DM, but you will see mastery on the ground.. If you're a fan of Jits like I am you can then appreciate Maia. He doesn't exactly lay and pray like a wrestler might either...
Cash it again!!!.. Maia has been a money tree for me over the last couple years as I've absolutely cleaned up betting big on the guy in his last 5 fight wins.. Hense the avatar pic.. RSPK shown..
I say the Demian Maia winning streak continues....
also doesn't help he isn't a title contender. The only thing he is doing is preventing entertaining matchups for the belt because he sure as hell isn't going to provide one.Last edited by brooks85; 08-24-16, 05:20 PM.Comment -
MMA MANIA write up in!!!! Prelims -
185 lbs.: Garreth McLellan vs. Alessio Di Chirico
South Africa’s Garreth McLellan (13-4) entered UFC on a six-fight win streak, five of those wins by submission. "Soldier Boy" has gone 1-2 in the promotion itself, pounding out Bubba Bush between losses to Bartosz Fabinski and Magnus Cedenblad.
He has submitted nine opponents overall and knocked out another three.
Alessio Di Chirico (9-1), meanwhile, made his Octagon debut last April with nine professional wins and three amateur victories to his credit. In a competitive bout, Di Chirico settled for a decision loss to Elevation Fight Team’s Bojan Velickovic.
He has stopped eight opponents, four each by knockout and submission.
The core of McLellan’s struggles is his underdeveloped wrestling. He was being handily outgrappled by Bubba Bush before a well-timed fence grab turned the tide and, while his top game may have been able to stand up to Magnus Cedenblad’s grappling, he was left at the mercy of the taller man’s striking.
Di Chirico’s a physically strong man with a solid wrestling game and that’s all he needs to be to take McLellan out. The Italian gets his first official UFC win with a grapple-heavy onslaught.
Prediction: Di Chirico via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Ning Guangyou vs. Marlon Vera
Ning Guangyou (5-3-1) scored two impressive knockouts on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "China" before dispatching Yang Gianping in Macau. A knockout of Royston Wee followed, after which he dropped to Bantamweight and lost an uneventful split decision to Marco Antonio Beltran.
Three of his five wins have come by knockout.
Marlon Vera's (9-3-1) upkick knockout produced one of the best highlights on TUF: "Latin America," although a skin infection sadly cut his run short. The jiu-jitsu specialist has gone 1-2 in UFC itself, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus for his submission of Roman Salazar.
He is three inches taller than Ning at 5’8."
Vera simply hasn’t shown the level of wrestling a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist needs to excel in UFC. Attacking from his guard worked against Roman Salazar, but he had few answers for Davey Grant’s takedown game. Even though Ning is fairly raw, he’s an excellent wrestler out of a great camp in Tiger Muay Thai, giving him the edge in the stylistic match up.
Ning’s power makes him the bigger threat on the feet and I’m not convinced Vera can put him on his back. If he can avoid the passivity that screwed him against Marco Beltran and allowed a woefully outclassed Royston Wee to last two rounds, I expect TUF winner to earn the victory.
Prediction: Ning via second-round knockout
185 lbs.: Adam Hunter vs. Ryan Janes
In Canada’s Elite 1 promotion, Adam Hunter (7-1) won both the Light Heavyweight and Middleweight titles with first-round knockouts. After defending the latter with another stoppage, he took just 40 seconds to crush former UFC competitor Chris Dempsey in his first stateside appearance.
All seven of his wins have come by stoppage, six of them via knockout.
Ryan Janes (8-1) cut his teeth in Armageddon FC before a one-time appearance on World Series of Fighting (WSOF): "Canada." He went on to win Battlefield FC’s Middleweight belt and successfully defended it in July 2015. He’s scored rear-naked choke submissions in seven of his eight wins.
There’s very little footage out there of Janes, but what little I’ve seen compares favorably to Hunter’s body of work. While the latter can hit, he’s a fairly awkward and labored striker who doesn’t seem to have any consistent plan of attack on the feet. Plus, his knockout of Chris Dempsey is mitigated by the fact that it was Chris Dempsey, who got knocked out three times in UFC in increasingly brutal fashion.
Janes has more experience going the distance and I expect his grappling attack to pay dividends. He finds an eighth rear-naked choke once Hunter starts to fade.
Prediction: Janes via second-round submission
185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Kevin Casey
After smashing his way into flirting with Middleweight contenders status thanks to three consecutive first-round knockouts, Sam Alvey (27-8) hit a major snag with underwhelming losses to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou. Less than one month after the latter bout, however, he returned to his finishing ways thanks to a brutal guillotine finish of Eric Spicely.
Seventeen of his 27 wins have come by knockout.
The ignoble exit from Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) for Kevin Casey (9-4-1) gave way to three straight wins on the regional circuit, resulting in his 2014 return. He has gone 1-1-1, 2 NC in his latest run, his win over Bubba Bush overturned because of a drug test failure.
He will give up three inches of height to the 6’2" Alvey.
Generally speaking, Alvey will either look very, very good or very, very bad. Luckily for him, Casey is a perfect foe for him to look good against. I’ve been high on Casey before, but his cardio issues show no signs of abating, he’s chinny, and Rafael Natal amply demonstrated how vulnerable he is to counters. He’s more or less tailor-made for Alvey provided the latter remembers to throw a punch every once in a while.
The fight is basically just a matter of waiting until Alvey finds his mark and Casey’s chin fails him for the fifth time. It will eventually result in a knockout win for "Smile’n Sam."
Final result: Alvey def. Casey by first-round knockout
155 lbs.: Chad Laprise vs. Thibault Gouti
Chad Laprise (10-2) capped off his impressive run through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Nations" with a decision victory over teammate Olivier Aubin-Mercier, then followed that up with wins over Yosdenis Cedeno and Bryan Barbarena. He has since lost two straight to Brazilian hulk Francisco Trinaldo and fellow TUF alum Ross Pearson.
Four of his 10 wins have come via knockout, though none in his last eight bouts.
Thibault Gouti (11-2) punched his UFC ticket with a one-hit knockout of Anton Kuivanen, only to lose his Octagon debut in equally dramatic fashion as Teemu Packalen choked him out in 24 seconds. His next fight saw him survive two rounds against the aforementioned Aubin-Mercier before tapping to a third-round rear-naked choke.
He has stopped nine opponents overall, six via submission.
Laprise’s well-rounded game may not take him to a title, but it’s consistent and effective. He’s the better striker here and ought to have the wrestling to dictate the fight, making Gouti’s submission prowess a non-factor. Physical opponents and superior technicians appear to trouble Laprise -- Gouti is neither. Laprise keeps him at the end of one-two combinations and shuts down his takedown attempts for a decision win.
Prediction: Laprise via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Enrique Barzola vs. Kyle Bochniak
Peru’s Enrique Barzola (11-2-1) had fought just once outside of his home country going into TUF: "Latin America 2." Luckily, he made the transition without issue and scored two wins on the show before outclassing Horacio Gutierrez on the Finale.
"El Fuerte" has knocked out and submitted four foes apiece.
Kyle Bochniak (6-1) didn’t let a little thing like timing stop him from making his UFC debut in Boston just nine days after his previous bout. There, "Crash" managed to drop hometown favorite Charles Rosa early, but ultimately lost a unanimous decision.
Like Barzola, his four finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Bochniak impressed me against Rosa, showing a very solid wrestling game against the grappling specialist. Judging by Barzola’s fight against Gutierrez, he’ll come out with a similar gameplan. Bochniak’s already proven himself able to thwart it, and this time, he should get the win as well.
Barzola has more experience, but his and Bochniak’s records are rather close in terms of quality wins. Odds are, he’ll find Bochniak too big a jump, losing the wrestling battle en route to a decision loss.
Prediction: Bochniak via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Felipe Silva vs. Shane Campbell
Felipe Silva (7-0) blasted through the South American circuit, picking up five first-round finishes in six fights. In his most recent bout, he went overseas to knock out Anton Kuivanen in his native Finland. He has knocked out five opponents and submitted another.
Shane Campbell (10-5) earned viral fame with his Street Fighter-inspired finish of Derek Boyle, setting the stage for his short-notice Octagon debut two months later. "Shaolin" has gone 1-3 in the promotion, most recently suffering a submission loss to Erik Koch in May. Five of his professional wins have come by knockout.
Silva’s obviously got power and Campbell’s struggled recently, but I believe he can avoid the three-fight skid. He’s the cleaner striker of the two and Silva’s grappling pales in comparison to that of James Krause and Erik Koch, who controlled Campbell on the mat. The Brazilian will likely give him the striking battle he wants and I do not see Campbell losing that.
Expect Campbell’s distance game to pay dividends as he keeps Silva at bay, avoiding his foe’s power clinch to ultimately take home the decision.
Prediction: Campbell via unanimous decisionComment -
Thanks Jibbs. As always, you outdid yourself in this writeup. (J/K!)
Does this guy have a good record?Comment -
I agree they're tough to hit but I think something likeDraws are a long shot.. You'd be lucky if you get 1 draw happening with every 2 or 3 cards.. Still if you keep laying a 5 spot on each draw prop with every fight you will eventually hit and get paid..
Can be profitable if all the draw prop odds remain in +6000's, +7000's range... Hmmmm?
I typically look for the draw in live betting when I see a point deduction or a 10-8 round.. I've played that a few times and still can't say for sure if I ever hit on a draw play??? Probably not if I had to guess.. Draws are tough to hit...
Round 1: Maia 10-9
Round 2: Maia 10-9
Round 3: Maia 10-9
Round 4: Condit 10-9
Round 5: Condit 10-8
is feasibleComment -
Jibb
Im leaning Oliveira over Pettis.
I think he can take what Pettis dishes out, submit him or peck at him on pts with his long frame.
is this a bad idea?Comment -
Very good record and almost better then mine. The dude is solid that's why I post it up with every event.. I'd say 75 percent of the time I agree with his picks.. This guy has a solid winning record to answer your question.. Do I tail? No I do not but the write ups still have something to give most the time..
I'm trying to raise the level of MMA capping here and would not bring it down with copy and paste garbage...
Here's to team play!!!
Comment -
I like Oliveira in this match.. He's tall, athletic, and should be very game in this fight.. Pettis if findings ways to lose fights lately so I like the match ups and fighter trends.. If the Showtime Pettis of years ago showed up then I wouldn't like this fight.. That's not the case though..
Pettis might be cut if he loses this fight so I'm sure he'll bring it.. Not a gimmie but worth a try with Oliveira at those +150 straight play odds me tinks..
Comment -
What? this isnt his write up you dumbass!!!!!!! Are you fakking serious?
Comment -
None of this writeups are jibbys, they are always Patrick Stumburg from MMA MANIA, he only re-post it.Comment -
We already covered this, I think he was being sarcastic..
I always post MMA Mania write ups with every post to start it out. I NEVER CLAIM THESE WRITE UPS TO BE MY OWN AND NEVER DID.. People just assume.. It's understandable BJ..
..
Just sharing information on the event threads.. I'm sure some of you guys appreciate my MMA MANIA copy and paste posts.. This guy does hit em alot of the time..Comment -
If you think I'm out of line BJ I'll stop this.. I use to alter the write ups, add facts and trends and also add sherdog links and 5dimes current betting odds.. I stopped that 6 months ago as I felt that was disrespectful to Patrick..
Just copy and paste now and nothing more... Read and do what you want with it. I just think it's helpful that's why I post it..
I could just copy and paste the links but it's work for you guys to open the links so I just copy and paste the original type for easy reference.. Often times I look back to the post of mine on SBR myself for quick read ins..Comment -
Lol, i didnt get that. But seriously though, you did never get back to my on my questions from a couple of weekends ago, after winning 500 dollars on 8 accounts on woodley, have you been restricted or not?Comment -
-
Pettis looks fit or anorexic now and works with Greg Jackson... He'll probably be game and lose by decision....
Bottom line me tinks ya gotta continue to fade Showtime Pettis until he starts winning fights again.. Oliveira looking good in fights lately on the flip side and winning...Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-24-16, 10:57 PM.Comment -
Im also able to bet on 5dimes. But all other bookies, are you not restricted to pennies? How is that possible, if you win medium/large every weekend? How is that possible?
Thats my point, im thrown out of every bookie except 5dimes and pinnacle, like ive pointed out before..Comment
