UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit (August 27, 2016)

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 05:21 PM

UFC on Fox 21 Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000)
Sam Alvey ($10,200)
Carlos Condit ($10,000)
Jim Miller ($9,100)
Shane Campbell ($8,800)

**JIBBBY** · 08-26-16, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Jibby for the love of god, don't put your money on Casey. He's a PED wasteland. Guy has no gas tank, no technique on the feet, and an awful chin. He's facing a guy who picks his shots well and has a lot of power. Casey will try to bully him with takedowns and when that fails, he goes night night

Maybe Tpow..

I just said Casey has a chance if he can get the take downs going over 3 rounds and last. Casey has never lost a decision and he has gone the distance in 2 of his last 4 fights and also went deep into the third round with Natal in his recent loss. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Casey-24121

Also Sam Alvey isn't a high out put fighter and is typically challenged to win rounds on points and or win fights by decision lately.. The last 2 fights that went the distance Sammy lost by decision...

I hedged with the Sam Alvey KO prop... I'm not stupid.. If Casey gets the early KO on Alvey I'm screwed but I don't think it will happen.. Alvey has a pretty good chin..

This is how I played the fight...

$100.00

$350.00

Pending

8/27/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Casey wins by 3 round decision +350* vs Not Casey by 3 round decision

hedge

$100.00

$160.00

Pending

8/27/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1433 Alvey wins by TKO/KO +160* vs Any other result

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Maybe Tpow..

I just said Casey has a chance if he can get the take downs going over 3 rounds and last. Casey has never lost a decision and he has gone the distance in 2 of his last 4 fights and also went deep into the third round with Nadal in his recent loss. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kevin-Casey-24121

I hedged with the Sam Alvey KO prop... I'm not stupid.. If Casey gets the early KO on Alvey I'm screwed but I don't think it will happen.. Alvey has a pretty good chin..

This is how I played the fight...

$100.00

$350.00

Pending

8/27/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1407 Casey wins by 3 round decision +350* vs Not Casey by 3 round decision

hedge

$100.00

$160.00

Pending

8/27/16 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1433 Alvey wins by TKO/KO +160* vs Any other result

Does anybody else think Sam Alvey looks like the lovechild of Ronald Weasley and the Pillsbury Doughboy?

**yisman** · 08-26-16, 05:40 PM

The R. Janes vs A. Hunter fight has been cancelled due to a failed drug test.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 08-26-16, 05:40 PM

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by yisman

The R. Janes vs A. Hunter fight has been cancelled due to a failed drug test.

You're always the bearer of bad news yisman. Thanks for the info.

**Thrilla** · 08-26-16, 05:42 PM

**JIBBBY** · 08-26-16, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

Looks like Pettis picked up a crack habit.. Lol.. Why do you think they call Jon Jones "bones Jones"...

**Chael Sonnen** · 08-26-16, 07:18 PM

going to pound town on Oliveira

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by Chael Sonnen

going to pound town on Oliveira

Seems like a good spot for him. Let's get that dog money

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 08:21 PM

Interesting stat on Joe Lauzon. Of his 26 wins, he has 25 finishes (7 KOs, 18 Subs). He is 1-4 in fights that go the distance.

**bjpenn85** · 08-26-16, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Looks like Pettis picked up a crack habit.. Lol.. Why do you think they call Jon Jones "bones Jones"...

Pettis appears concerned, no that confident etc. But what a bad style matchup for oliveira...

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-26-16, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Pettis appears concerned, no that confident etc. But what a bad style matchup for oliveira...

What are your final bets on this card?

**firekillex** · 08-26-16, 08:47 PM

pettis looking much better tonight, tough call looks like he recovered pretty well... -200 wouldnt lay anything big maybe still hit some props ... oliveria at + money is enticing though

whats everybodys favourite bet for this card ??

**JIBBBY** · 08-26-16, 09:04 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Pettis appears concerned, no that confident etc. But what a bad style matchup for oliveira...

I don't know about about a bad style match up, not much to compare too.. All I know is Do Brox hasn't really lost a fight since 2013 and that was by decision against Frankie Edgar.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Oliveira-30300

That last loss was to Max Holloway when he had that freak neck or throat injury when he was grappling and that made him quit and go right to the hospital... So I don't count that as a loss..

Do Brox has been on it and winning since 2013.. Tough to bet against that especially when you see Pettis losing fight after fight..

Match up problems maybe, but that's hard to nail down IMO...

**Chael Sonnen** · 08-26-16, 09:53 PM

^^ this guy gets it. So much value on Oliveira in this spot, regardless of what you say about style matchups. Pettis is a broken fighter now.

Also thinking of a small play on Miller as the dog, he's going to have a war with Lauzon and I think it should be a 50/50 result.

**UncleChael** · 08-26-16, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by Chael Sonnen

^^ this guy gets it. So much value on Oliveira in this spot, regardless of what you say about style matchups. Pettis is a broken fighter now.

Also thinking of a small play on Miller as the dog, he's going to have a war with Lauzon and I think it should be a 50/50 result.

Omg, wtffffff. what has the world come too. Im the only Uncle Chael around these parts.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-27-16, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Omg, wtffffff. what has the world come too. Im the only Uncle Chael around these parts.

Who ya got on this card Uncle?

**UncleChael** · 08-27-16, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Who ya got on this card Uncle?

Since you asked, I got Pettis -170 ML and Carlos Condit -125 ML +150TKO, CC to finish Rounds 1,2, and 3.

**Thrilla** · 08-27-16, 07:54 AM

- Fightnetwork.com / Paul Shaughnessy (@PaulShag) and Cody Saftic (@CJSaftic) break down UFC Fight Night Vancouver: Maia vs. Condit and give you their picks and bets.

- Maia vs Condit predictions, plus full fight card UFC on FOX 21 predictions. All on the Fury's Fight Picks Podcast with pro gambler Luca Fury!
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**Snowball** · 08-27-16, 10:04 AM

at 27:30 that Luca Fury said the exact same thing my neighbor said.
I am definitely scared off Oliveira.

Condit, Pettis, Van Zant and Casey for me.
GL all.

**Alex Hart** · 08-27-16, 10:51 AM

Is there any chance that the Van Zant fight doesn't go the distance?

**GunShard** · 08-27-16, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Snowball

at 27:30 that Luca Fury said the exact same thing my neighbor said.
I am definitely scared off Oliveira.

Condit, Pettis, Van Zant and Casey for me.
GL all.

You know that Luca Fury was once on this forum until everyone pointed out his scams: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...0823-boom.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/2q7mkl/investigating_luca_fury_furys_fight_picks/

**Snowball** · 08-27-16, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Alex Hart

Is there any chance that the Van Zant fight doesn't go the distance?

of course. Van Zandt is not automatic. No women are automatic.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-27-16, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by Alex Hart

Is there any chance that the Van Zant fight doesn't go the distance?

I think PVZ might finish in the third.

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 11:41 AM

Early start time today!! 4:30 Eastern time/1:30 Pacific time.... Tick tock beeeatches...

4 hours from now it begins!!!

**GoBlue77** · 08-27-16, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by Chael Sonnen

^^ this guy gets it. So much value on Oliveira in this spot, regardless of what you say about style matchups. Pettis is a broken fighter now.

Also thinking of a small play on Miller as the dog, he's going to have a war with Lauzon and I think it should be a 50/50 result.

double fail, congratulations

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 11:48 AM

EARLY PRELIM PLAYS.... (First 3 fights) My takes...

Fight #1 -

Going with Jeremy Kennedy by decision prop, straight play and also like the O2.5 for my big play... Went $180 to win $100 on the O2.5, then $75 on the straight $50 on the decision prop.. Too lazy to find and copy and paste those 3 bets.....

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims

Jeremy
Kennedy
"JBC"
vs
Alessandro
Ricci

CANADA
Country

8-0-0
Record
10-3-0

38%
KO/TKO
50%

25%
SUB
0%

38%
DEC
50%

72 in
Height
71 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
69 in

39 in
Leg Reach
39 in

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 11:52 AM

Fight #2 Going with Ryan James by Sub and hedging with Hunter KO... Also like the Under in this fight...

Ryan
Janes
vs
Adam
Hunter
"WarHammer"

CANADA
Country
CANADA

8-1-0
Record
7-1-0

0%
KO/TKO
86%

88%
SUB
14%

13%
DEC
0%

74 in
Height
73 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

76 in
Reach
73 in

44 in
Leg Reach
40 in

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 11:54 AM

Fight #3 -Taking Chad Lapise Straight and by decision small stuff.. No hedging with this fight..

Chad
Laprise
"The Disciple"
vs
Thibault
Gouti
"GT"

CANADA
Country
FRANCE

11-2-0
Record
11-2-0

45%
KO/TKO
27%

9%
SUB
55%

36%
DEC
18%

70 in
Height
70 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
72 in

39 in
Leg Reach
41 in

**firekillex** · 08-27-16, 12:05 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

I think PVZ might finish in the third.

vanzant props hmmmm which to roll with im thinking she gets the decision but late finish could definitely happen
+105 by decision
+330 ITD

**ufcmma36** · 08-27-16, 12:30 PM

Fight #2 cancelled

**Thrilla** · 08-27-16, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by yisman

The R. Janes vs A. Hunter fight has been cancelled due to a failed drug test.

bump this for JIBBBY

Hunter flagged by USADA, pulled from UFC on FOX 21

http://www.mmafighting.com/2016/8/26/12666110/ufc-s-adam-hunter-flagged-by-usada-pulled-from-ufc-on-fox-21-fight

Adam Hunter is out of his fight with Ryan Janes after he was flagged by USADA.

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by ufcmma36

Fight #2 cancelled

Is that right? I didn't even check... Been busy.. Hit this fight days ago.. Not even copy and pasting my bets in the early fights this go around. Checking 5dimes now..

Kinda liked the hedge play I had going with that scrap.. Oh well...

**JIBBBY** · 08-27-16, 01:37 PM

Fight #4 - Going with Shane Cambell by decision $100 to win $265.. No hedge...

FOX

Shane
Campbell
"Shaolin"
vs
Felipe
Silva

CANADA
Country
BRAZIL

12-5-0
Record
7-0-0

42%
KO/TKO
71%

17%
SUB
14%

42%
DEC
14%

72 in
Height
71 in

155 lbs
Weight
155 lbs

71 in
Reach
77 in

41 in
Leg Reach
42 in