UFC on FOX: Maia vs Condit (August 27, 2016)

[bjpenn85]

Pettis looks fit or anorexic now and works with Greg Jackson... He'll probably be game and lose by decision....

Bottom line me tinks ya gotta continue to fade Showtime Pettis until he starts winning fights again.. Oliveira looking good in fights lately on the flip side and winning...

But Oliveira have never shown that he can hang with the top level talents without getting injured and crumbled except from against stephans. So will you then value more that win more than Pettis close fights with the worlds number 1 2 and 3, knowingly that he has never been submitted or knocked out?

Its a difficult question, but one that hunts me, which make it very difficult to wager in on pettis. To lay money on such a fragile entity as oliveira for 15 minutes, without getting finished against pettis, that doesnt sound like a very good bet, so ultimately a pass. I agree with you, i need that one pettis fight win to show me has more left, but then you will never get as good odds as now.

[JIBBBY]

Im also able to bet on 5dimes. But all other bookies, are you not restricted to pennies? How is that possible, if you win medium/large every weekend? How is that possible?

Thats my point, im thrown out of every bookie except 5dimes and pinnacle, like ive pointed out before..

How often are you cashing out and what books? I don't cash out often which I think helps you fly under the radar.. When I do cash out that's when I cross my fingers and hope they deliver..

I've been kicked off a few books thru the years BJ. When it happens you move on, if you like that book then open up another new account under a friend or family member and kick back a commission.. Move to Vegas or get a runner if you're winning big time and the online sportsbooks can't hold your bets anymore.. I haven't got there yet..

BJ, I'm not a high roller, my bets are usually $100 or $200 as you know, once in a while I will hit the $500 bets like you witnessed in the big main card fights.. The online sports books have been able to support my wagering amounts in the big fights... I don't do that with every event though and usually not in the prelim fights...

Books will over look ya for a time as long as you aren't making payout requests every month or week either. Take one or two bigger payouts per year as I think helps..

This is what sucks about online sports betting if you are good and or if you really want to step up your bet amounts, you can get cut off.. It's a good problem to have though BJ if you have it...

[JIBBBY]

But Oliveira have never shown that he can hang with the top level talents without getting injured and crumbled except from against stephans. So will you then value more that win more than Pettis close fights with the worlds number 1 2 and 3, knowingly that he has never been submitted or knocked out?

Its a difficult question, but one that hunts me, which make it very difficult to wager in on pettis. To lay money on such a fragile entity as oliveira for 15 minutes, without getting finished against pettis, that doesnt sound like a very good bet, so ultimately a pass. I agree with you, i need that one pettis fight win to show me has more left, but then you will never get as good odds as now.

He's not that fragile.. Do Bronx has made it deep into the 3rd round in 3 of his last 6 fights.. Oliveira has also only been stopped 4 times in 26 pro fights. Look for yourself.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Oliveira-30300

[bjpenn85]

He's not that fragile.. Do Bronx has made it deep into the 3rd round in 3 of his last 6 fights.. Oliveira has also only been stopped 4 times in 26 pro fights. Look for yourself.http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Charles-Oliveira-30300

Again, youre using the low level competition argument. He has actually lost 4 out of 6 against high level fights in the ufc. So he has a 4-6 record.

- FINISHED BY CERRONE
- FINISHED BY CUB SWANSON
- FINISHED BY JIM MILLER
- FINISHED BY MAX HOLLOWAY
- Not finished by stephans
- Not finished by edgar

Get my point?

[bjpenn85]

How often are you cashing out and what books? I don't cash out often which I think helps you fly under the radar.. When I do cash out that's when I cross my fingers and hope they deliver..

I've been kicked off a few books thru the years BJ. When it happens you move on, if you like that book then open up another new account under a friend or family member and kick back a commission.. Move to Vegas or get a runner if you're winning big time and the online sportsbooks can't hold your bets anymore.. I haven't got there yet..

BJ, I'm not a high roller, my bets are usually $100 or $200 as you know, once in a while I will hit the $500 bets like you witnessed in the big main card fights.. The online sports books have been able to support my wagering amounts in the big fights... I don't do that with every event though and usually not in the prelim fights...

Books will over look ya for a time as long as you aren't making payout requests every month or week either. Take one or two bigger payouts per year as I think helps..

This is what sucks about online sports betting if you are good and or if you really want to step up your bet amounts, you can get cut off.. It's a good problem to have though BJ if you have it...

No, youre not flying under a rader, they have a excel sheet with win and losses and overall profit. Youre insane for believing you can get under a radar.

Betting 4000 dollar on tyrone woodley is not high roller betting?

Are you joking now, cause i dont quite understand..

[bjpenn85]

Again, youre using the low level competition argument. He has actually lost 4 out of 6 against high level fights in the ufc. So he has a 4-6 record.

- FINISHED BY CERRONE
- FINISHED BY CUB SWANSON
- FINISHED BY JIM MILLER
- FINISHED BY MAX HOLLOWAY
- Not finished by stephans
- Not finished by edgar

Get my point?

Sorry, i ment finished by 4 out of 6 high level competition, he obviously won over stephans!!

[Thrilla]

<<<<<< war

[JIBBBY]

No, youre not flying under a rader, they have a excel sheet with win and losses and overall profit. Youre insane for believing you can get under a radar.

Betting 4000 dollar on tyrone woodley is not high roller betting?

Are you joking now, cause i dont quite understand..

BJ you are talking non-sense now... I don't bet $4000 on tyrone woodley, I bet $500 on several different books and it fly's every time I've done that.. They all credited the win and I'm not cut off on $500 straight betting last I checked.. Not sure what else I need to say to you?..

If you don't want to believe me that's ok and I understand BJ, it is what it is.. Will I get cut off soon maybe or maybe not on some of my books, time will tell?.. If I do get limited or cut off it won't be the first time.. I'll create a new account under a different name.. Not sure what books are cutting you off or limiting you BJ for the occasional $500 bets? I also bet other sports as well daily for $100 -$200 range...

Lastly again I don't cash out every month or even 3 months.. I wait.. I think that helps even though you don't.. Try it.. Moving on now to the event and fights.. Good luck BJ..

[JIBBBY]

Again, youre using the low level competition argument. He has actually lost 4 out of 6 against high level fights in the ufc. So he has a 4-6 record.

I understand this, Pettis has fought the best of the best in the division.. In this sport it's what have you done for me lately... Pettis on a 3 fight losing streak and doubt creeps in.. He's getting desperate dropping weight classes, not watching tape on fighters, and trying to mix things up..

Do Bronx is cruising and winning fights, has a good submission game, is long, athletic and a rangy fighter and I think he will give Pettis the same problems Edson Barboza just gave him.. Not saying Do Bronx is as good as Edson Barboza but both are 5'11" and athletic..

Now as far as Do Bronx being fragile and easy to KO or injure, he went the distance against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy little heathen Stevens like you mentioned.. You don't go the distance against those guys if you are fragile.. Those losses to elite fighters were years ago, I believe Do Brox is a better fighter today.. We'll see?

Like I said if the old Pettis shows up he can beat Do Bronx.. I just haven't seen the old Pettis show up anymore.. He's finding ways to lose fights.. Will Fade!!!!

[Snowball]

I like Oliveira in this match.. He's tall, athletic, and should be very game in this fight.. Pettis if findings ways to lose fights lately so I like the match ups and fighter trends.. If the Showtime Pettis of years ago showed up then I wouldn't like this fight.. That's not the case though..

Pettis might be cut if he loses this fight so I'm sure he'll bring it.. Not a gimmie but worth a try with Oliveira at those +150 straight play odds me tinks..

I see +160 - +180

looks like the ppl who don't do much research are pounding Pettis
as a "reasonably expected" favorite. Pettis desperation to stay
relevant can work against him, Oliveira will set traps.

[JIBBBY]

Anyone think Bec Rawlings has a chance against Page Van Zant?..

Van Zant is doing dancing with the stars and is all over the place.. Bec has won her last 2 fights, seems to be improving and hasn't lost in almost 2 years.. If anything she should give Page a stiff challenge.. Page got her ass beat also by Rose in her last fight so no telling where her head is at. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bec-Rawlings-84964

I'm tempted to play the dog in this one.. I'm not that good with calling these chick fights for some reason so I'm up for ideas on this fight? Over round bets seem solid but the odds are stiff ..

UFC on Fox 21 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Rogers Arena - Vancouver, Canada - Fox

Sat 8/27		1201 Bec Rawlings		+190	o2½ -260
8:00PM		1202 Paige VanZant		-230	u2½ +220

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anyone think Bec Rawlings has a chance against Page Van Zant?..

Van Zant is doing dancing with the stars and is all over the place.. Bec has won her last 2 fights, seems to be improving and hasn't lost in almost 2 years.. If anything she should give Page a stiff challenge.. Page got her ass beat also by Rose in her last fight so no telling where her head is at. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bec-Rawlings-84964

I'm tempted to play the dog in this one.. I'm not that good with calling these chick fights for some reason so I'm up for ideas on this fight? Over round bets seem solid but the odds are stiff ..

UFC on Fox 21 - Strawweight 3 rounds - Rogers Arena - Vancouver, Canada - Fox

Sat 8/27		1201 Bec Rawlings		+190	o2½ -260
8:00PM		1202 Paige VanZant		-230	u2½ +220

If Rawlings gets to +200 or better, I'll probably put a unit on her straight. For now, I like VanZant R3 and Decision for small.

[JIBBBY]

If Rawlings gets to +200 or better, I'll probably put a unit on her straight. For now, I like VanZant R3 and Decision for small.

Most are picking Van Zant by decision.. Probably the smart play... Maybe I'll work a hedge play angle with this fight. Bec straight, Van Zant by decision maybe..

1211 VanZant wins by 3 round decision

+114

[Hugo de Naranja]

Interesting line movement on Condit/Maia Fight. Here's a few bets that might be worth checking out:
Maia +5.5 (-135). If you like Maia here this seems like a steal. Cashes if Maia wins by finish or decision. Also, cashes if the fight goes the distance and Condit loses a close decision. So basically, as long as Maia does not get finished (a big IF) this is money.

I still like Condit late round finish props even though they've dropped a lot since openers.
Condit Round 3 (+750)
Condit Round 4 (+875)
Condit Round 5 (+1075)

Finally, I think the Condit decision and split decision props are being undervalued at current odds (+510) and (+1175).

[firekillex]

Most are picking Van Zant by decision.. Probably the smart play... Maybe I'll work a hedge play angle with this fight. Bec straight, Van Zant by decision maybe..

1211 VanZant wins by 3 round decision

+114

the plays vanzant decision and possibly small on submission prop
agreed if rawlings gets to +200 the value would be on her

[firekillex]

I still like Condit late round finish props even though they've dropped a lot since openers.
Condit Round 3 (+750)
Condit Round 4 (+875)
Condit Round 5 (+1075)

i like these good find Hugo , if condit finishes which i think he will itll be late most likely when maia is gassing .. still good value hoping it finishes in the 5th but regardless youre profitable if he finishes round 3-5 i think ill play condit straight 2 units then put .5 on each those rounds

[firekillex]

and just finished watching some tape on oliveria im putting 2 units on pettis here ... i really dont like oliverias takedowns or striking defense.. hes mainly an offensive fighter when hes dishing out all the strikes he looks great but he has a tendency to not move his head much and if he cant get the takedown and starts to get hit he begins to wilt, you could say the same for pettis lately but hes been fighting much better competition then oliveria imo ( bigger guys that have bullied and wrestled/grinded pettis) i dont see oliveria being able to do that at all pettis will most likely be the stronger guy and may even be able to show his wrestling off a bit, i think pettis has an impressive fight here and proves a lot of doubters wrong.. i like the value since hes coming off 3 losses people are low on him so -160/-170 is a steal for me hes an elite striker whos had a bad string of fights.. Jibby youre right in mma its a what have you done for me lately business but oliveria isnt a top 5 talent imo and pettis has shown me he can be i see a finish here for pettis or a decisive decision ... lets go showtime

[JIBBBY]

I'm thinking Kevin Casey has a grinders chance against Sam Alvey.. Sam Alvey kinda sucks period.. If he can't get you to trade with him he usually gets out worked and out pointed.. If KC can avoid getting KO'd by Sammy I think he grinds out a decision win here...

1407 Casey wins by 3 round decision

+350

or

1433 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+180

Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"
vs
Kevin
Casey
"King"

USA
Country
USA

27-8-0, 1NC
Record
9-4-1, 2NC

63%
KO/TKO
44%

11%
SUB
33%

26%
DEC
33%

74 in
Height
71 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

75 in
Reach
77 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

[bjpenn85]

BJ you are talking non-sense now... I don't bet $4000 on tyrone woodley, I bet $500 on several different books and it fly's every time I've done that.. They all credited the win and I'm not cut off on $500 straight betting last I checked.. Not sure what else I need to say to you?..

If you don't want to believe me that's ok and I understand BJ, it is what it is.. Will I get cut off soon maybe or maybe not on some of my books, time will tell?.. If I do get limited or cut off it won't be the first time.. I'll create a new account under a different name.. Not sure what books are cutting you off or limiting you BJ for the occasional $500 bets? I also bet other sports as well daily for $100 -$200 range...

Lastly again I don't cash out every month or even 3 months.. I wait.. I think that helps even though you don't.. Try it.. Moving on now to the event and fights.. Good luck BJ..

I really did have the golden touch with this event last night.. We all have one of these nights once in a while.. It's fun when that happens...

Hitting those last 3 dogs at $500 each a pop really did the trick on all my books..... I was up on the card even before these last 3 fights started as well..

I usually risk around $500 or so for each of the final 2 or 3 fights with every card but with hedge play and what not.. This go around I just went for it with the dog straights and that's it. I didn't get cute.. It paid off tremendously..

I honestly figured 2 of 3 would hit and I'd win money with that but to my surprise all 3 dogs hit..

I really raped all my books last night, no lie.... $3500 x 8 accounts on average..

Quick recap of the final 3 fights, not showing off, well maybe just a little since this is one of my biggest event wins of the year.. You guys understand..



Am i talkin non-sene?

You clearly stated that you bet 3500 dollars x 8, or was it 500 dollar x 8?


I obviously wondered if you have some crazy trick to hide from the bookies or whatever. I understand that you felt a little bit uncomfortable with the questions im asking, sorry for that, but you clearly stated it, so yeah...it was only a question.

[bjpenn85]

I understand this, Pettis has fought the best of the best in the division.. In this sport it's what have you done for me lately... Pettis on a 3 fight losing streak and doubt creeps in.. He's getting desperate dropping weight classes, not watching tape on fighters, and trying to mix things up..

Do Bronx is cruising and winning fights, has a good submission game, is long, athletic and a rangy fighter and I think he will give Pettis the same problems Edson Barboza just gave him.. Not saying Do Bronx is as good as Edson Barboza but both are 5'11" and athletic..

Now as far as Do Bronx being fragile and easy to KO or injure, he went the distance against Frankie Edgar and Jeremy little heathen Stevens like you mentioned.. You don't go the distance against those guys if you are fragile.. Those losses to elite fighters were years ago, I believe Do Brox is a better fighter today.. We'll see?

Like I said if the old Pettis shows up he can beat Do Bronx.. I just haven't seen the old Pettis show up anymore.. He's finding ways to lose fights.. Will Fade!!!!

Its a pass for me, i think it hard to know where pettis is and oliveira has been quite fragile in the past to the extent i do not trust him enough to make a bet. I dont think Oliveira at +150 is a bad bet, i can see him win if it goes out of the first round.

[JIBBBY]

^ Yes BJ that's correct.. I bet $500 on all my books and the bets were accepted, I do that only on occasion and not with every event.. I'll do that again in the future I'm sure at some point with main event fights..

I'm not uncomfortable about sports betting, gambling and or sharing on SBR what do I care?.. I'm an open book and post my bets pending with amounts and always have..

My books accept my $500 straight plays and I'm not limited yet on my current accounts.. Sorry if that bothers you or seems bogus.. I don't know what you want me to say? Moving on.. Believe what you want all good.. I have no tricks, if I get limited or cut off I open a new account under a different name (relative or friend with a commission) Reset restart..

That's how I work it for now.. Is what it is... That's it..

At some point I'm probably gonna have to get away from online sportsbooks but I haven't gotten there yet.. I'm also a 5 hour drive away from Vegas or 30 minute flight away in the future and will cross that road when I need too and or if I feel to limited online..

I'll ASK YOU AGAIN, what books did you get limited on for betting $500 straight plays?

[bjpenn85]

^ Yes BJ that's correct.. I bet $500 on all my books and the bets were accepted.. I'll do that again in the future I'm sure at some point with main event fights..

I'm not uncomfortable about sports betting, gambling and or sharing on SBR what do I care?.. I'm an open book and post my bets pending with amounts and always have..

My books accept my $500 straight plays and I'm not limited yet.. Sorry if that bothers you or seems bogus.. I don't know what you want me to say? Moving on.. Believe what you want all good.. I have no tricks, if I get limited or cut off I open a new account under a different name (relative or friend with a commission) Reset restart..

That's how I work it.. Is what it is... That's it..

Cool.

[JIBBBY]

Cool.

I'll ASK YOU AGAIN, what books did you get limited on for betting $500 straight plays?

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah that seems crazy LOL...

I'll ASK YOU AGAIN, what books did you get limited on for betting $500 straight plays?

[PaperTrail07]

Pettis by Decision

[bjpenn85]

I'll ASK YOU AGAIN, what books did you get limited on for betting $500 straight plays?

Just drop a bookie, im restriced.

First ever was paddy power, if i try to make a bet there i can put 1 uk sterling, they have admitted im blacklisted.

So skybet, betsson, unibet, betway, expekt, ladbrokes, its basically all of them. Its unheard to put 500 not a chance, maybe 10 dollars. Its no point.

There isnt one bookie that do not openly admit that im restricted. Their private companies, youre on their territory.

Im glad i can play at this point. 5dimes did limit my open parlay option couple of weeks ago after winning 800 dollars, but i can still play, but i cant save parlays, which was sooooooo freakin nice...i could hit 5 or even 6 parlays easy. I could pick the absolute easiest fights and then just wait, and let the profit build up.

But as long as i can play on 5dimes im pretty happy actually. But i cant just put 500 dollars on any bet. Lets say a fighter is at even odds. Im allowed to put maybe 300 before the line moves, and then maybe another 300 etc.

If i want to put 1000 dollar on a figher at -200. Thats not a problem, so they have some sort of limits in regards to my profit on a bet. They basically want me to pay up big sums for favourites, and less sums for bets at even odds or dogs.

[bjpenn85]

Also restriced at : boylesports, sportingbet and betfred...

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm thinking Kevin Casey has a grinders chance against Sam Alvey.. Sam Alvey kinda sucks period.. If he can't get you to trade with him he usually gets out worked and out pointed.. If KC can avoid getting KO'd by Sammy I think he grinds out a decision win here...

1407 Casey wins by 3 round decision

+350

or

1433 Alvey wins by TKO/KO

+180

Sam
Alvey
"Smile'N"
vs
Kevin
Casey
"King"

USA
Country
USA

27-8-0, 1NC
Record
9-4-1, 2NC

63%
KO/TKO
44%

11%
SUB
33%

26%
DEC
33%

74 in
Height
71 in

185 lbs
Weight
185 lbs

75 in
Reach
77 in

42 in
Leg Reach
41 in

I don't see Casey having a really viable path to victory here. Judges have recently been moving more and more away from awarding rounds to lay-and-pray grapplers and Casey's gas tank is atrocious. Alvey has very good TDD so I think he can keep this on the feet, especially after the first round. I'm on Alvey pretty big here since I'm confident he will put Casey away in the later rounds. Although Alvey has a good chin, I'll probably hedge with Casey Round 1 (+1000) because "King" has good knockout power, especially early.

[bjpenn85]

Yeah that seems crazy LOL...

Seems crazy? I have a fakking map with all the conversations from the live chat where they admits this. Ive tried dozens of time to send this info to the newspapers, so they could pressure the bookies into allowing me to bet freely, but the newspapers doesnt care at all.

their like...oh...so you loose a lot, maybe its good for you? Im like...no no no...you dont understand, they restrict me. i cant bet.


Can they do that? Sure..im telling you right now heres the evidence..hmmmmm...interesting. But nothing ever happens.

Problem is that many of these bookies actually sponsor the newspaper now, so it can be a conflict of interest. I dont know why they never call back. Its not like the water gate scandal. Its not like a big deal some casino are dodgy.

But if you ask me papertrail, can i bet 500 dollars on a bookie except 5dimes or pinnacle, its a fakking hell no. Thats my reality last three years. When you arrive where i am, i will welcome you to the club, gladly.

[JIBBBY]

I'm not any of those books you mentioned BJ.. I've never even heard of some of them??? Are you in the UK or something?

Stick with the big name books and you probably won't get limited as quickly is my best guess. Like 5dimes, Bovada, etc.... If they've networked your name then I guess it's time to open new accounts under a different name..

I've been restricted on 5dimes prop betting and cut off completely on Bovada last year.. Dumped on the Greek, sportsbookie.com, and Aces. I had to work around all that..

[JIBBBY]

I don't see Casey having a really viable path to victory here. Judges have recently been moving more and more away from awarding rounds to lay-and-pray grapplers and Casey's gas tank is atrocious. Alvey has very good TDD so I think he can keep this on the feet, especially after the first round. I'm on Alvey pretty big here since I'm confident he will put Casey away in the later rounds. Although Alvey has a good chin, I'll probably hedge with Casey Round 1 (+1000) because "King" has good knockout power, especially early.

Interesting take on it Hugo you have..

I have a hard time betting on Sam Alvey these days.. He's laid too many eggs lately in fights.. Casey could get knocked out late are my thoughts when he starts to gas.. Alvey has a solid chin and I don't see him getting dropped early in the fight.. Casey will ground him but might gas..

Thinking hedge play here, Casey by decision and Alvey by KO..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Interesting take on it Hugo you have..

I have a hard time betting on Sam Alvey these days.. He's laid too many eggs lately in fights.. Casey could get knocked out late are my thoughts when he starts to gas.. Alvey has a solid chin and I don't see him getting dropped early in the fight.. Casey will ground him but might gas..

Thinking hedge play here, Casey by decision and Alvey by KO..

Fair enough. You've been watching/betting this sport a lot longer than me so I haven't seen too many Alvey fails. I just think this is a great matchup for him and I'm really bearish on Kevin Casey. I don't think he should even be in the UFC.

[JIBBBY]

Fair enough. You've been watching/betting this sport a lot longer than me so I haven't seen too many Alvey fails. I just think this is a great matchup for him and I'm really bearish on Kevin Casey. I don't think he should even be in the UFC.

Well, just watch his most recent fights with Alias and Brunson, that might change your mind when betting on Sam Alvey.. Casey is nothing special either but he has been picking up wins.. Has a solid wrestling base too.. Can bang standing as well.. His biggest problem is his gas tank.

I think Casey wins the first 2 rounds on points but that 3rd round could get very dicey when Casey starts breathing really hard.. Anything goes at that point including Casey's chin...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Well, just watch his most recent fights with Alias and Brunson, that might change your mind when betting on Sam Alvey.. Casey is nothing special either but he has been picking up wins.. Has a solid wrestling base too.. Can bang standing as well.. His biggest problem is his gas tank.

I think Casey wins the first 2 rounds on points but that 3rd round could get very dicey when Casey starts breathing really hard.. Anything goes at that point including Casey's chin...

Both Elias and Brunson are top flight MWs and I did take Elias in the fight against Alvey. I just think Casey's nowhere near there level.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

It was only 18 months ago that Pettis was -500 against RDA. Imagine back then telling someone you could get Pettis at -180 against Oliveira at 145 lbs... what a difference a couple months makes