UFC 200 : DC vs JONES (July 9, 1016)

[JIBBBY]

big john has been named the ref , Jones camp is filing a complaint

big John is the ref who hates eye pokes the most , just the last card he was warning Elias theodorou multiple times during the fight and In-between rounds to close the hand or he'll take a point , this could definitely negatively effect the fight, big John would probably be the worst ref for Jon , plus DC knows about the leg oblique kicks he already said he's just going to bumrush Jon and see if he can take the pressure, his cardio didn't look great last fight, and to say Jones purposely made OSP fight go 5 rounds is laughable , mma fighters don't get paid by the hour they want to finish the fight , when you're in a fight mid battle you never once think oh I should coast this to a decision to get cage time .. Jones is imo the greatest ever but DC is being overlooked here , if value goes up on DC I'll go dog $ if not I'll stick with Jones Ina few parlays but this fight is a lot tougher then people are thinking here

Yep, Big John was warning fighters about keeping fists closed during the fights last I saw.. He is VERY strict on eye pokes and I personally like that..

JJ ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT want Big John to ref his fight with DC.. This certainly makes me think twice about pulling the trigger on the unanimous decision prop now..

JJ could actually get DQ'd if he pokes DC several times after being warned several times.. Big John doesn't mess around but this is such a big main event fight a DQ is hard to fathom... Point deductions could happen for sure though..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep, Big John was warning fighters about keeping fists closed during the fights last I saw.. He is VERY strict on eye pokes and I personally like that..

JJ ABSOLUTELY DOES NOT want Big John to ref his fight with DC.. This certainly makes me think twice about pulling the trigger on the unanimous decision prop now..

JJ could actually get DQ'd if he pokes DC several times after being warned several times.. Big John doesn't mess around but this is such a huge fight so a DQ is hard to swallow. Point deductions could happen for sure though..

I doubt he would get more than one point deducted and even then he would have to get a few warnings and continue to do it anyway.

[THE_RUDESTER]

I think Chiesa has a good chance at beating Ferguson. What are the odds on this parlay?

Right around +200

[firekillex]

Wouldn't be to concerned about multiple points or a DQ .. DC hates Jon to much to let an eye poke stop the fight , at most I see 1 point taken , the thing that worries me most is just adjusting after , he literally always has his paw out to judge distance and range if he's forced to close that hand Cormier could catch him with the overhand much easier, which he's knocked out heavyweights with...


still leaning Jon but saying this is a bigger underdog matchup then bisping over rockhold I cannot comprehend ... This is an extremely close matchup it's the 2 arguably best LWHs in history fighting with DC coming in with huge momentum and confidence this time and Jon coming off doubt and long layoffs



side note Ferguson is going to completely murk chiesa

[JIBBBY]

^^ Fire you went SBR PRO welcome to the club man!!!

[TheCalculator]

This card is a gambler's dream. Will be the most amount of money I've laid on card before live.

Edgar is a steal. Edgar is probably 10-15% better than when they fought. Aldo is 10-20% worst (slower). Aldo's KO is lifetime damage (more likely for another KO). Aldo's confidence has been shaken. Edgar's is at a peak. Edgar always does smart adjustments on rematches and does far better. Aldo's been looking "more natural" in pics in the last few weeks.

5Us on Edgar.

[firekillex]

^^ Fire you went SBR PRO welcome to the club man!!!

Yup used to be pro back in the day then came back and had to do it again cheers

but regarding Edgar I think I'll be on him as well, Aldo's last fight against mcgregor he charged in and got caught this may make him more hesitant which could help Edgar ,5 round fight Edgar can push the pace and outpoint him the thing that scares me is Aldo coming back like a demon looking for revenge but just on the fact that Edgar's one of my favourite fighters ever and the values good I may just take him anyways haha

[TheCalculator]

the thing that scares me is Aldo coming back like a demon looking for revenge

That's always a weakness as a fighter. That's what killed him against McGregor.

[slayer14]

Since the tougher drug testing i believe the fighters in the aldo gym have a losing record something like 3 wins and 10 losses.

[JIBBBY]

That's always a weakness as a fighter. That's what killed him against McGregor.

Frankie Edgar doesn't strike like McGregor.. Aldo won't get dropped in this fight like he did the last..He already has the confidence of beating Frankie clearly to a unanimous decision before also.. He clearly beat Frankie in that fight.

Aldo also needs this win badly so don't bet against him Calculator in this fight.. I don't see him losing 2 in a row, he's too good.. Aldo will be chomping at the bit after that flash KO against McIrish..

Let's just say I warned ya..


He was toying with Frankie in the last fight.. Busted his face up too...

[firekillex]

Just rewatched the last fight , I'm on Frankie Edgar as well 1-2 unit play well see in the next few weeks how the line moves

Jose clearly won round 1 and 2 with his strikes but Edgar out landed Aldo round 3,4,5 and got a takedown landed , round 3 was super close ....


Edgar definitely has gotten better, knocking out mendes was a huge win and Aldo definitely looks softer since USADA , hopefully he doesn't come out like the old Aldo but I have enough faith in Edgar to play, hopefully he gets the belt , mcgregor relinquishes the belt then he drops to 135 and fights Cruz to become the first ever to hold 3 belts

[JIBBBY]

^^ I need to watch that fight again.. I remember it being pretty one sided...

[firekillex]

^^ I need to watch that fight again.. I remember it being pretty one sided...

just watched it no commentary best way
plus looked up fight metric stats Edgar out landed him3,4,5 but Aldo outlanded him by 10 significant strikes total since he dominated round 1,2 compared to Edgar's close rounds but with the scoring system could've given a 48-47 to Edgar wouldn't be crazy .... Plus gotta think Edgar's looked better, Aldo hasn't looked great it's tough

[Ultimatemeatball]

I believe Frankie will get this done one way or another.

[Thor4140]

Quite clearly you mean worse than ever? Full of ring rust and wasnt close to finish OSP which Glover demolished within 3 rounds. People went: Woooaw look how bad jones jones look. People said, if that guy faced Cormier he will have lost a 50-45. Did you see 1 sec of that fight?

Not sure he saw a second of the Aldo/Edgar 1 either

[JIBBBY]

Not sure he saw a second of the Aldo/Edgar 1 either

Yep Thor I never saw either fight even though I bet on them and posted live during them both on this forum on the event threads..

Thor you're really not the sharpesst tool in the shed are you pal?

That fight was over 3 years ago and yes I don't remember it like it was yesterday but I remember it enough to know that Aldo won that fight and I didn't have a second thought about it.. He had the speed, reach and technical advantage standing and won it by unanimous decision.. Judges saw him winning it clearly also..

I clearly remember Frankie Edgars face being swollen and busted up more then Aldo's at the end of that fight.

My opinion won't change even after I watch the fight again which I'll do right now.. I'm still on Aldo at +100 which I think is a gift...

Aldo is only 29 years old, he's been one of the most dominate champions in the UFC over the years.. He's fought everybody... Just look at his record and all those consecutive wins on this sherdog link.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jose-Aldo-11506

You gotta be crazy to bet against Aldo coming off the loss he just had.. He got clipped fresh against McGregor because he was jacked up and that doesn't mean he's slipping as a fighter, it just means he got caught dry.. McGregor got into his head too, Aldo was pissed off and it showed.. He didn't fight smart coming out and trading like he did right out of the gates.....

Frankie has looked good in recent fights I can't lie and I like the guy but I don't think he's gonna win this fight period... This fight is a no brainer for me... ALDO all day long!!!

[GoBlue77]

Going heavy on a 4 leg parlay
Dos Anjos
Jones
Tate
Ferguson

Might add Cain as well.

What do you think Jibby?

Northcutt
Dillashaw
Cain

and thats it!

And Tate will wreck Nunes. Nunez has a very poor fight IQ, very poor

[GoBlue77]

This card is a gambler's dream. Will be the most amount of money I've laid on card before live.

Edgar is a steal. Edgar is probably 10-15% better than when they fought. Aldo is 10-20% worst (slower). Aldo's KO is lifetime damage (more likely for another KO). Aldo's confidence has been shaken. Edgar's is at a peak. Edgar always does smart adjustments on rematches and does far better. Aldo's been looking "more natural" in pics in the last few weeks.

5Us on Edgar.

Have to admit when the fight was announced I was on Aldo. Since then, I'm backing off that lean myself.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Northcutt
Dillashaw
Cain

and thats it!

And Tate will wreck Nunes. Nunez has a very poor fight IQ, very poor

Do you think Dillashaw has value at (-390) against a guy who beat him (albeit in a very close fight) recently?

[TheCalculator]

Do you think Dillashaw has value at (-390) against a guy who beat him (albeit in a very close fight) recently?

No

Value is on Assuncao

[Hugo de Naranja]

No

Value is on Assuncao

No doubt about that. Dude is highly underrated. Dillashaw should still be the favorite but closer to the -150 range

[firekillex]

I think dillashaw smokes him , first fight he won in my opinion
plus he's probably gotten 3-5x better since that fight , while assuncao has been on the shelf injured, this is a set up fight for dillasnake to win and get a title rematch

-390 is terrible value though basically no play unless you put him in some parlays or take props , I'll have to see what he unanimous decision money would be I see him getting a 30-27

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think dillashaw smokes him , first fight he won in my opinion
plus he's probably gotten 3-5x better since that fight , while assuncao has been on the shelf injured, this is a set up fight for dillasnake to win and get a title rematch

-390 is terrible value though basically no play unless you put him in some parlays or take props , I'll have to see what he unanimous decision money would be I see him getting a 30-27

Gotta disagree with you there. Assuncao has the jitz to sub Dillashaw and could also outstrike him to a decision.

[BIGDAY]

This card is a gambler's dream. Will be the most amount of money I've laid on card before live.

Edgar is a steal. Edgar is probably 10-15% better than when they fought. Aldo is 10-20% worst (slower). Aldo's KO is lifetime damage (more likely for another KO). Aldo's confidence has been shaken. Edgar's is at a peak. Edgar always does smart adjustments on rematches and does far better. Aldo's been looking "more natural" in pics in the last few weeks.

5Us on Edgar.

[JIBBBY]

Edgar might get stopped in this fight as I'm reluctant to play the decision props.... I'm just happy to get the +100 odds on the Aldo straight.

Not sure what you guys are seeing with Frankie Edgar? He's still the same fighter that fought and lost in that first fight.. Like DC fighting JJ I'm not sure what DC or Frankie can do differently to win these fights this time around? I'm expecting to see the best Aldo ever in this rebound fight..

Frankie is gonna get picked apart at distance just like he did in the first fight.. Remember I said that fellas.

[GoBlue77]

I think dillashaw smokes him , first fight he won in my opinion
plus he's probably gotten 3-5x better since that fight , while assuncao has been on the shelf injured, this is a set up fight for dillasnake to win and get a title rematch

-390 is terrible value though basically no play unless you put him in some parlays or take props , I'll have to see what he unanimous decision money would be I see him getting a 30-27

This guy gets it

[Sato]

Also one thing to keep in mind is Frankie is bitter. He aims for that Conor payday but couldnt get it. Now he needs to make a statement against an aging fighter that has been bingod cleanly.

[PaperTrail07]

KG over Hen.....all Day

[PaperTrail07]

This month of July is going to be EPIC.....6 cards

[PaperTrail07]

at -390 ill be on the other side NO DOUBT

This guy gets it

[firekillex]

This month of July is going to be EPIC.....6 cards

Yup, has to be the best month in mma history probably.... just looking at 200 that could honestly be an entire month and nobody would complain , then you throw in 5 other cards with championship fights ( Alvarez / rda should be crazy, Joanna champ vs Claudia will be another crazy fight )


regarding the dillashaw-assuncao fight like I said the only value for tj would be props basically, he'll prob control the fight pretty easily 3 rounder to most likely win every round , I see him coming out strong in the first his movement and footwork will be to much for assuncao and I think the speed difference will be evident this fight... Point on assuncao he does have great jitz but I doubt he gets to take down dillashaw and all those guys from alpha male ( even though he's not there anymore) seem to be the best in the game at getting up right away after being taken down so I honestly don't really see anyway tj loses and the books unfortunately agree.. If he was at -200 that would be probably one of my biggest plays in the year

[Hugo de Naranja]

Also one thing to keep in mind is Frankie is bitter. He aims for that Conor payday but couldnt get it. Now he needs to make a statement against an aging fighter that has been bingod cleanly.

I don't think things like a guy "needing a win" or "being bitter about not getting a payday" have much of an effect on how fights play out. You think Frankie didn't want to win the first fight against Aldo really badly? You think Aldo doesn't want to make a statement coming off his first loss in a decade? Such considerations don't change how a fighter matches up with an opponent and bettors often give too much significance.

Look at Pettis for example. He was a worldbeater at LW before getting embarrassed by Dos Anjos. He "needed a win" against Alvarez to get another title shot. After that fight, he "needed a win" against Barboza to still be considered an elite fighter. Just last weekend, Rory Macdonald would have helped his life situation greatly by beating Wonderboy and increasing his value before he goes to free agency. Did that change how he matched up against his opponent and help him win? No, not at all. My point is that fighters are almost always coming to the octagon and doing their damnedest to get the job done, regardless of external factors so we shouldn't let these factors influence how we bet fights.

[Ty$]

Northcutt
Dillashaw
Cain

and thats it!

And Tate will wreck Nunes. Nunez has a very poor fight IQ, very poor

Have fun with Northcutt... Too risky for me

[JIBBBY]

Have fun with Northcutt... Too risky for me

I agree at those odds it's a bit sketchy as the kid really got beat down and exposed in his last fight KO loss to tough guy Barberina.. I do expect Sage to rebound well in this next fight but if things don't go well for him early on we could see a repeat of what happen to him against Barberina.... Mentally you just don't know what that last fight did to the kid also..

The Spaniard Enrique Marin seems like a tailor made rebound fight for Sage but he does seem durable as he hasn't been stopped in 7 fights.

Marin hung in against Erick Montana in his UFC deput last fight where he lost by SPLIT decision.. I'm sure Marin is gonna give his best as he doesn't want to lose 2 straight fights in the UFC and probably lose his job in the process..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Enrique-Marin-27077

[Thrilla]