WSOF 24: Fitch vs. Okami (October 17, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

NBCSN, 9 p.m. ET
Jon Fitch vs. Yushin Okami
Blagoi Ivanov vs. Derrick Mehmen (for heavyweight title)
Tom Marcellino vs. Nick Newell
Matt Hamill vs. Vinny Magalhaes
Magomed Bibulatov vs. Donavon Frelow (for inaugural flyweight title)

preliminary card, 7 p.m. ET
Rick Glenn vs. Adam Ward
Alexandre Almeida vs. Saul Almeida
Rodrigo Almeida vs. Bruce Boyington
Washington Nunes da Silva vs. Colton Smith
Rex Harris vs. Justin Torrey
Nicolai Salchow vs. Louis Taylor
Tyler King vs. Patrick Walsh

[Unwritten Law]

Went with the heavy chalk taking Magomed Bibluatov -1000 along with some college football action.

[JIBBBY]

Was waiting for a thread start on this.. Okami, Ivanov and Vinny Maghalhaez... I'll comment on 2 fights..

Okami is better then Finch in just about every area.. Finch could grind on Okami with this fighting style but I don't see it happening.. Finch can wrestle but Okami is a beast and probably will be the stronger grappler and end up in top position if it does go to the ground.. If it stays standing which it probably will both kinda suck but I give Okami the slight stand up edge as well... Finch should be game but I'm leaning Okami barely....


Matt Hamill is done in MMA as far as I'm concerned, looking for a paycheck probably and Vinny should get the fairly easy win here.. Matt Hamill has been out of the octagon for a long time now (2 years). Let's just put it that way - http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Hamill-16695

I'm liking Vinny big time in this match up and he probably wins by submission.... If Vinny can grind out a submission win against tough nosed Jason Brilz another wrestler like he did in his last fight he should have his way with Matt Hamill in this one..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Vinny-Magalhaes-10709

Props I'm still working on -

<small>Jon Fitch vs Yushin Okami - Welterweight 3 rounds</small>
Sat 10/17		3003 Fitch / Okami goes 3 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">-260
9:00PM		3004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">+180
Sat 10/17		3005 Fitch wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_1" type="checkBox">+543
9:00PM		3006 Not Fitch inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_1" type="checkBox">-1027
Sat 10/17		3007 Fitch wins by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_2" type="checkBox">+210
9:00PM		3008 Not Fitch by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_2" type="checkBox">-290
Sat 10/17		3009 Okami wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_3" type="checkBox">+326
9:00PM		3010 Not Okami inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_3" type="checkBox">-477
Sat 10/17		3011 Okami wins by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_4" type="checkBox">+131
9:00PM		3012 Not Okami by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_4" type="checkBox">-171
Sat 10/17		3013 Fitch / Okami draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_5" type="checkBox">+15000
9:00PM		3014 Fight not a draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_5" type="checkBox">-45000

Thinking maybe Okami ITD at +326 perhaps.. Finch wins ITD at +543 is also tempting to take at those odds I can't lie.. I do think this will be a closer fight then most think..

<small>Derrick Mehmen vs Blagoi Ivanov - Heavyweight 5 rounds</small>
Sat 10/17		3103 Mehmen / Ivanov goes 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_6" type="checkBox">+325
9:00PM		3104 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_6" type="checkBox">-475
Sat 10/17		3105 Mehmen wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_7" type="checkBox">+369
9:00PM		3106 Not Mehmen inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_7" type="checkBox">-559
Sat 10/17		3107 Mehmen wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_8" type="checkBox">+548
9:00PM		3108 Not Mehmen by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_8" type="checkBox">-1042
Sat 10/17		3109 Ivanov wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_9" type="checkBox">-185
9:00PM		3110 Not Ivanov inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_9" type="checkBox">+145
Sat 10/17		3111 Ivanov wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_10" type="checkBox">+600
9:00PM		3112 Not Ivanov by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_10" type="checkBox">-1200
Sat 10/17		3113 Mehmen / Ivanov draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_11" type="checkBox">+20000
9:00PM		3114 Fight not a draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_11" type="checkBox">-60000

Liking Ivanov ITD at -185

<small>Matt Hamill vs Vinny Magalhaes - Light Heavyweight 3 rounds</small>
Sat 10/17		3203 Hamill / Magalhaes goes 3 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_12" type="checkBox">+200
9:00PM		3204 Fight won’t go 3 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_12" type="checkBox">-280
Sat 10/17		3205 Hamill wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_13" type="checkBox">+800
9:00PM		3206 Not Hamill inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_13" type="checkBox">-1700
Sat 10/17		3207 Hamill wins by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_14" type="checkBox">+350
9:00PM		3208 Not Hamill by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_14" type="checkBox">-530
Sat 10/17		3209 Magalhaes wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_15" type="checkBox">-194
9:00PM		3210 Not Magalhaes inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_15" type="checkBox">+154
Sat 10/17		3211 Magalhaes wins by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_16" type="checkBox">+500
9:00PM		3212 Not Magalhaes by 3 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_16" type="checkBox">-900
Sat 10/17		3213 Hamill / Magalhaes draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_17" type="checkBox">+18500
9:00PM		3214 Fight not a draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_17" type="checkBox">-55500

Magalhaes ITD is a lock IMO at -193... No submission win prop


Nick Newell probably locks in that nub choke submission of his as well in that fight...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

wow Okami made 170




Jon Fitch (170) vs. Yushin Okami (170)
Champ Blagoi Ivanov (252) vs. Derrick Mehmen (237) – for heavyweight title
Tom Marcellino (155) vs. Nick Newell (156)
Matt Hamill (205) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (204)
Magomed Bibulatov (124) vs. Donavon Frelow (124) – for inaugural flyweight title
Rick Glenn (145) vs. Adam Ward (145)
Alexandre Almeida (145) vs. Saul Almeida (148)*
Rodrigo Almeida (148)* vs. Bruce Boyington (145)
Washington Nunes da Silva (173)* vs. Colton Smith (170)
Rex Harris (184) vs. Justin Torrey (185)
Tyler King (240) vs. Patrick Walsh (228)

[JIBBBY]

^^^Okami and Fitch could have been a huge UFC match up like 5 years ago come to think of it.. This is actually a great fight if you think of it like that.. I'm on Okami and just can't go Fitch.. The verdict is in!!!!!

That chick in behind Okami and to the right in the picture above is hot by the way!!


These are all my prop plays and how I will be betting them for value.. How I think the fights will play out - Thought to share why not...

$50.00	$82.10	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3309 Newell wins inside distance -165* <small>vs</small> Not Newell inside distance
				Pending	10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3409 Bibulatov wins inside distance -155* <small>vs</small> Not Bibulatov inside distance

$82.80	$107.00	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3109 Ivanov wins inside distance -185* <small>vs</small> Not Ivanov inside distance
				Pending	10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3209 Magalhaes wins inside distance -205* <small>vs</small> Not Magalhaes inside distance

$50.00

$90.00

Pending

10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3004 Fight won’t go 3 round distance +180* <small>vs</small> Fitch / Okami goes 3 round distance

[Unwritten Law]

Jibbby, surprised you're not going against the Asian fighter in Okami. I actually ran into Yushin Okami after a Thursday afternoon game at Petco Park a couple years ago. Dude was cool and we took a pic with our fist pose, although not many people recognized who he was, which totally isn't surprising.

So far I'm only on Bibulatov in an existing parlay with college football (Houston, Utah State).

In the main event, I am also leaning towards Okami to get the win via decision. Both are good wrestlers and do not possess KO power and both have somewhat of a respectable submission defense. This fight may turn out to be boring to the American audience. Not really expecting much fireworks, but who knows? Maybe a surprise but I doubt it. Okami -165 isn't a bad bet which I'll likely take tomorrow.

I might as well throw in Bibulatov in a 3 separate parlays since he's the biggest favorite on the card with Okami, Ivanov, and Magalhaes.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Okami is a physical specimen that can wrestler his ass off. The Asian fade rule doesn't apply here ...

I'll tell you though unwritten I was on the fence with this fight, read Jon Fitch has been working hard on his stand up, new trainers, camp, and he claims to be the best fighter he's ever been, etc... He looks and sounds very confident..

However, Okami now at 170 should be an absolute beast. Fitch likes to fight physical and wrestle and that's playing right into Okami's wheel house..

This fight I'm really looking forward to seeing... Should be a good one!!!

[JIBBBY]

Event write ups -

http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/10/17/9547005/wsof-24-predictions-fitch-okami-mma-news

http://www.mmamania.com/2015/10/15/9474263/wsof-24-predictions-preview-for-fitch-vs-okami-nbc-sports-main-card

[JIBBBY]

In the main event, I am also leaning towards Okami to get the win via decision.

I can't blame ya for thinking these 2 guys make it to a decision, both wrestlers, Jon Fitch is a grinder and usually goes to decision if he doesn't get knocked out first..

My thinking is Okami has 10 ko's in 30 of his wins, he does pack some striking power and Jon Fitch's chin is has been borderline glass in the recent past.. Flip side Jon Fitch is BBJ black belt and capable of locking in a submission win if Okami gets stunned or is on the bottom at some point.. Both fighters are aged now and I'm just not convinced this goes the distance..

This is why I was leaning towards the ITD props on both guys in my above posts.. Just wanted to explain my reasoning and not seem like a fool calling finishes from 2 guys that are both wrestling based fighters first...

[Unwritten Law]

I was thinking they would be conservative and fight at their own pace which would make it a long fight. Fitch is going to have to prove himself first to convince me he's improved, the best shape ever, etc.. 26 of his wins 16 were by decision for a 62% rate. Nearly half of Okami's wins were by decision (14/30). Leaning the over 2.5 but I would parlay it and not play it straight up - too much juice.

[Unwritten Law]

Congrats on the Trivia as well!

[JIBBBY]

I was thinking they would be conservative and fight at their own pace which would make it a long fight. Fitch is going to have to prove himself first to convince me he's improved, the best shape ever, etc.. 26 of his wins 16 were by decision for a 62% rate. Nearly half of Okami's wins were by decision (14/30). Leaning the over 2.5 but I would parlay it and not play it straight up - too much juice.

Maybe you're right Unwritten as you make good points.. I just think Okami at the new lower weight finishes Jon Fitch, or the new and improved Fitch wears down Okami and stops him... Tough fight to call all the way across the board.. Don't think either can just lay and pray for 3 rounds though..

I'm on Okami ITD for really small myself, fight won't go the distance, and on the under 2.5 rounds at +243 for more..Not super confident on all though but decided to go with it anyways...

$60.00

$145.80

Pending

10/17/15 9:00pm WSOF Fighting 3001 Jon Fitch/Yushin Okami Under 2½ +243*

[JIBBBY]

Game time in a few minutes!!!!

Anyone on line and tuning in for this event?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

settle down jibby

[JIBBBY]

settle down jibby

I know right.. lol..

Watching a couple of fat guys now all gassed out with no action. I'm not that amused..

[JIBBBY]

Chael Sonnen commentating.. This should be interesting....

[Unwritten Law]

Parlay:

Vinny
Nick
Blagoi

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Bibulatov throwing the spining shit

[JIBBBY]

Went with the heavy chalk taking Magomed Bibluatov -1000 along with some college football action.

Scary bet, congrats on that unwritten as you should get this decision..

I was hoping that Bibluatov would end this with a submission win, oh well.. Little guys are hard to finish even in a 5 rounder.. Gotta remember that when betting ITD...

[Killer_Demo]

Fukkin chael got notes written on his palms lol

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

This guy would smash mighty mouse

[JIBBBY]

That was the most awkward translating interview I have ever witnessed in the cage.. I don't think either Russian knew what Chael was screaming out, that was funny.... Lol...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

stripping Palhares was a terrible idea, he is the only interesting thing going in WSOF

[JIBBBY]

stripping Palhares was a terrible idea, he is the only interesting thing going in WSOF

He was breaking limbs... No one in their right mind would wanted to take a fight with him.. Jake Shields was crazy enough and he almost got his arm snapped..

Palhares is dangerous.. Yeah, but he is a draw for sure..

[JIBBBY]

Yep Matt Hamill got sub'd fast. Poor guy.. I almost feel bad for the deaf dude... Needed that.. That was my big bet..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

easy peasy...

[JIBBBY]

Had to hammer Nick Newell ITD now too.. Let's see if this sticks?

Pending

10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3309 Newell wins inside distance -165* <small>vs</small> Not Newell inside distance

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

i wonder is he can knock someone out with the nub

[UncleChael]

Had to hammer Nick Newell ITD now too.. Let's see if this sticks?

Pending

10/17/15 9:00pm MMA Props Fighting 3309 Newell wins inside distance -165* <small>vs</small> Not Newell inside distance

You do realize he has a nub at the end of his left arm, right?

[JIBBBY]

You do realize he has a nub at the end of his left arm, right?

I also realize Nick Newell couldn't successfully lock in the nub submission choke thru 2.. Be lucky to win this one now even by decision. Nub is a one trick pony.. If it doesn't work he's struggling...

[JIBBBY]

Beating on a handicap in this third round not cool.. Could be a draw? 10-8 third you never know? ..

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

dude really thought he won?

[Unwritten Law]

Nicktorious!!

[JIBBBY]

Parlay:

Vinny
Nick
Blagoi

Good hit!!!

[Unwritten Law]

Wait! Blagoi is next!