UFC 192: Cormier vs. Gustafsson (October 03, 2015)

**JIBBBY** · 10-02-15, 09:31 PM

Final props I'm hitting up for value... Thought to share...

1011 Gustafsson wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +473

(DC is hard to finish and this is the most likely way of victory for Gus)

1129 Bader wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_43" size="4"> +750

(Bader has improved with his striking and Rashad has the ring rust and hasn't shown me anything in years)

1233 Jordan wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_65" size="4"> +275

(Most likely pathway to victory)

1429 Pena wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_103" size="4"> +580

(She has KO power)

1729 Jouban wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_143" size="4"> +525

(Russian could get caught late as Jouban has those kind of wins in him)

2433 Lewis wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_245" size="4"> +170

(Most likely pathway to victory)

**Sanity Check** · 10-02-15, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

But you dont need to see people fight for championship belts. You can just estimate, from the way he goes for a takedown, the way he throw punches etc, that his guy is better. The way he kicks the way he throw punches the way he moves, has nothing to do with the people he has faced. He will still be the same athletic slick moving target that trevino still will noe be able to hit. I mean, common. If you see a black guy run really really fast...do you need to confirm by looking at the watch, to find out if hes faster than a fat retard whos limping next to you? They havent met.......but what do you think is going to happen if the two compete against another? The analogy fits perfect, you just need to let go of this ohh hes 19, of ufc jitters bla bla. The guy f loves to compete, hes like a dog after a bone, guys crazy!!

By logic, ufc also dont care for trevino. Ufc always cheers the talented potential star, thats why they give favourable matchup. Like they always do, just think back, when did the last talented guy in the ufc loose as a favaourite in a debut? Correct, never happens. Weidman, conor, gunny, jimmye rivera, machkachev, carlos diego ferreira - dig deeper into this statistic, you will be shocked to see the numbers...absolutely shocked.

Originally posted by mirinquads

BJPENN get's it. If you know what you're looking at, you can deduct how this guy will do, even against a better guy. Maybe he will get pushed in a way he hasn't before, or crumble under the big lights, but he won't get worse technically etc. This literally never happens if you look back, its just some meme being pushed in the betting community for some reason. " OMFG we gotta see him against better competition, or we can't judge anything!!!" - Probably Lucy Fury's fault.. idiot parrots this all the time.

There's a reason why Holly Holm finished all her fights except for 1 by KO/TKO in Invicta and other small organizations before she got to the UFC. After Holly Holm got to the UFC all her fights went to a decision and she didn't look nearly as impressive as she had when she was fighting in smaller promotions. There can be a noticeable difference in the level of competition when making the jump from KOTC, Invicta and other small promotions to the UFC where pretty much everyone is tough.

If we're talking about Sage Northcutt, other than his physique there's nothing I see that is impressive. When he defends takedowns he doesn't do basic things like pushing on the head, scooting his hips back, hand fighting or making basic adjustments. When he strikes neither his kicks or punches look good, his movement doesn't look good, his jiu jitsu looks average, slow and predictable. Maybe he didn't take those fights he's had seriously and didn't train much for them. Maybe he will look a million times better in his UFC debut when he trains seriously and puts more effort into it. As far as I know, Sage is a kid who has no real training or sparring partners, no real team, no real coaching staff or expertise. On top of that it doesn't seem like he travels to other gyms or places to learn the way a lot of amateur and pro MMA fighters do, he just stays in his own little world. Will that be enough to allow him to do well in the UFC? I doubt it. But anything's possible.

Fracisco Trevino missed weight and looked terrible at weigh ins. Hopefully it won't have a negative impact on his performance but he looked a bit defeated on the scale and might have already gave up mentally. In which case we might have to wait till Sage's next fight to really see if he's any good or not.

**mirinquads** · 10-02-15, 09:55 PM

Agree with Northcutt though, he's nothing special yet, but the base is there. Athleticism, dedication and so forth. He has never drank a soda or eaten candy in his life he said in some interview (Yes, that's creepy as penetrate territory) - But you'd think he'd take the shit seriously in that case at least.

**JIBBBY** · 10-02-15, 10:21 PM

Gambling man I think ya gotta try your luck at +350 with the more experienced and well rounded Trevino ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Trevino-38029

Northcutt is young, explosive, undefeated and full of confidence but if Trevino can get out of the 1st round he might just win this because he is a pressing active tough hard nose fighter.. Gotta take this spunky kid into deep waters..

<small>UFC 192 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Toyota Center - Houston, Texas - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 10/3	2001 Sage Northcutt	<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> -440	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o2½ -140
7:00PM	2002 Frank Trevino	<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> +350	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u2½ +120

Watching Legacy now and even Pat Mill is saying if he was a betting man he'd be on Trevino too..

**Sanity Check** · 10-03-15, 12:00 AM

I don't know. With the way Francisco Trevino missed weight and didn't look confident on the scale, I wonder if he's throwing the fight or something else is going down behind the scenes, because Trevino looked and sounded confident a few days ago.

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 12:20 AM

^ This kid Northcutt is super hyped and I'm sure the UFC heads want to see him win.. I hope the fight isn't fixed like that but you never know?..

I'll be able to tell in the first round as I've seen both these guys fight a few times.. Trevino is not easily stopped in fights either.. Tough as nails... If Trevino takes a glancing shot and gets dropped early I'll have to believe something is fishy..

**bjpenn85** · 10-03-15, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

There's a reason why Holly Holm finished all her fights except for 1 by KO/TKO in Invicta and other small organizations before she got to the UFC. After Holly Holm got to the UFC all her fights went to a decision and she didn't look nearly as impressive as she had when she was fighting in smaller promotions. There can be a noticeable difference in the level of competition when making the jump from KOTC, Invicta and other small promotions to the UFC where pretty much everyone is tough.

If we're talking about Sage Northcutt, other than his physique there's nothing I see that is impressive. When he defends takedowns he doesn't do basic things like pushing on the head, scooting his hips back, hand fighting or making basic adjustments. When he strikes neither his kicks or punches look good, his movement doesn't look good, his jiu jitsu looks average, slow and predictable. Maybe he didn't take those fights he's had seriously and didn't train much for them. Maybe he will look a million times better in his UFC debut when he trains seriously and puts more effort into it. As far as I know, Sage is a kid who has no real training or sparring partners, no real team, no real coaching staff or expertise. On top of that it doesn't seem like he travels to other gyms or places to learn the way a lot of amateur and pro MMA fighters do, he just stays in his own little world. Will that be enough to allow him to do well in the UFC? I doubt it. But anything's possible.

Fracisco Trevino missed weight and looked terrible at weigh ins. Hopefully it won't have a negative impact on his performance but he looked a bit defeated on the scale and might have already gave up mentally. In which case we might have to wait till Sage's next fight to really see if he's any good or not.

Sage is impressive, what youre saying about his skills is def not true. He does actually look impressive. but against nobody, we can all agree on that. Is he as good as donald cerrone, or adriano martins, or even k.j. Noons, not at all, i am to not convinced he can compete at the top in at least two-three years. But can he beat Trevino, yes he can, and he probably will.

**GoBlue77** · 10-03-15, 01:11 AM

northcutt aint losing. neither is bader

**Sanity Check** · 10-03-15, 03:54 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

^ This kid Northcutt is super hyped and I'm sure the UFC heads want to see him win.. I hope the fight isn't fixed like that but you never know?..

I'll be able to tell in the first round as I've seen both these guys fight a few times.. Trevino is not easily stopped in fights either.. Tough as nails... If Trevino takes a glancing shot and gets dropped early I'll have to believe something is fishy..

Exactly.

BTW, did anyone notice the bizarre stretch marks on Trevino's shoulders during weigh ins?

Has he always looked like that?

edit - nevermind, I checked the UFC 188 weigh ins and Trevino has the same marks just never noticed em before.

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Sage is impressive, what youre saying about his skills is def not true. He does actually look impressive. but against nobody, we can all agree on that. Is he as good as donald cerrone, or adriano martins, or even k.j. Noons, not at all, i am to not convinced he can compete at the top in at least two-three years. But can he beat Trevino, yes he can, and he probably will.

From what he's shown thus far, he doesn't look impressive to me. His punching technique isn't very good. His kicking technique isn't very good. The way he moves his feet, his movement in the cage isn't very good. His wrestling and jiu jitsu looked extremely basic and rigid, robot'ish, rather than fluid.

**GunShard** · 10-03-15, 07:39 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gambling man I think ya gotta try your luck at +350 with the more experienced and well rounded Trevino ..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Francisco-Trevino-38029

Northcutt is young, explosive, undefeated and full of confidence but if Trevino can get out of the 1st round he might just win this because he is a pressing active tough hard nose fighter.. Gotta take this spunky kid into deep waters..

<small>UFC 192 - Lightweight 3 rounds - Toyota Center - Houston, Texas - UFC Fight Pass</small>
Sat 10/3	2001 Sage Northcutt	<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> -440	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o2½ -140
7:00PM	2002 Frank Trevino	<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> +350	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u2½ +120

Watching Legacy now and even Pat Mill is saying if he was a betting man he'd be on Trevino too..

I'll bet against you by betting on Northcutt.

I believe he's like Erick Silva, strong enough to win against bad fighters but will struggle against good fighters.

**bjpenn85** · 10-03-15, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

I'll bet against you by betting on Northcutt.

I believe he's like Erick Silva, strong enough to win against bad fighters but will struggle against good fighters.

Sure, i dont care but the future, for now im going to make money on whats being served to me on a silver platter. Who cares if he loses by 3 sec KO after getting blitzed by anthony pettis in 2018. Bon apetite monkeys!

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 10:17 AM

Well I took another look and changed my mind... I think you guys are right..

Trevino does look soft, Sage probably wins also because he's the hyped Karate kid and the UFC adores him. They are talking about him being the future of the UFC.. Bla bla bla.. Trevino takes a paid dive in this one.. It's good for business.. Throw logic out the window in this fight.. I'm gonna back up some of my Trevino play with this prop below..

The kid probably wins in grand fashion so I'm figuring the ITD prop is a lock if he does win, especially since Trevino looks out of shape and missed weight.

MMA betting logic suggests take the tough guy with the experience, fast pace, he's also coming off a decision loss after a long win streak so he should rebound, etc... but not in this case. Too many variables...

2005 Northcutt wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_191" size="4"> +115

**Killer_Demo** · 10-03-15, 10:53 AM

Sage van zant

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by Killer_Demo

Sage van zant

Yep, the UFC loves the pretty faced youngsters with the sparkle in their eyes.. The Sage's should be related... UFC is grooming them both..

**BELM0NT** · 10-03-15, 01:40 PM

DC vs Gus...Fight completes 2 rounds (-250)

**UncleChael** · 10-03-15, 01:42 PM

No idea who the kid is.. but Northcutt by decision is what I went with.

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

No idea who the kid is.. but Northcutt by decision is what I went with.

He's got a legit Karate back ground, kinda fights and reminds me of a quicker more athletic version of Daron Cruishank but still very raw.. In his last fight I think he had short mental lapses though, still a rookie in the cage IMO... Kid is explosive though with his striking and athleticism but hasn't faced anyone legit yet.. Looks like he's not facing anyone legit now looking at the sloppy, missing weight, sacrificial lamb looking Trevino.....

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 02:00 PM

Originally posted by BELM0NT

DC vs Gus...Fight completes 2 rounds (-250)

Very solid bet, but your paying to play that at -250.. Outside chance DC could catch Gus or pound him out early on... Doubt that happens though.. This 2 round bet probably hits.. GL Belmont!!!

I think the fight goes the distance myself...

**UncleChael** · 10-03-15, 02:54 PM

I also took Sergio Pettis by decision and Viktor Pesta.

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 05:20 PM

Almost game time!!

Going with the Black Beast Derrick Lewis in this first early prelim fight.. By KO would be nice.. Let's do this fellas!!!! Get that cheddar....

Pending10/3/15 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2433 Lewis wins by TKO/KO +176* <small>vs</small> Any other result

**latarianmilton** · 10-03-15, 05:23 PM

I've made a complete 180 on the Gustaffson vs Cormier fight, Cormier really only needs one takedown, in the first and second and Gus is gonna break imo.

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 05:53 PM

Great comeback for Lewis and got the KO.. Bingo...

**UncleChael** · 10-03-15, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Almost game time!!

Going with the Black Beast Derrick Lewis in this first early prelim fight.. By KO would be nice.. Let's do this fellas!!!! Get that cheddar....

Pending10/3/15 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2433 Lewis wins by TKO/KO +176* <small>vs</small> Any other result

Nice call Jibbs. Derrick Lewis

**latarianmilton** · 10-03-15, 05:57 PM

Lol Lewis outlasted Pesta, didn't see that happening, i thought he would get flatlined when he started unloading his sloppy combinations

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 05:57 PM

Thanks Unc I was big on Derrick Lewis just for the win.. Great start to this card...

Sergio Pettis overrated... Gotta fade him for small next.... Dogs all night long!!!

Ko prop is +725... Sergio's chin has been cracked before..

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 06:13 PM

Sergio looks like a weight division up.. This dog may not bark.. Size difference is massive..

Not looking good after 2 rounds.. Need a miracle..

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 06:25 PM

LOL, 2 judges gave Serio all 3 rounds. No way he won that 3rd round. Judges shaky already.

.

**nanderson1134** · 10-03-15, 06:33 PM

Got sage inside distance and by decision

**nanderson1134** · 10-03-15, 06:36 PM

Yea!!!!!!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-03-15, 06:38 PM

he's so dreamy!

**JIBBBY** · 10-03-15, 06:39 PM

Hit Sage up last minute with the KO prop for value besides the ITD bet for insurance... Kid exploded and Herb couldn't wait to stop it.. Lol..

Pending10/3/15 7:00pm MMA Props Fighting 2029 Northcutt wins by TKO/KO +314* <small>vs</small> Any other result

**ffffffff** · 10-03-15, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

2005 Northcutt wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_191" size="4"> +115

Hell of a call

**nanderson1134** · 10-03-15, 06:40 PM

Just don't pull a Jon Jones!

**GunShard** · 10-03-15, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

I'll bet against you by betting on Northcutt.

I believe he's like Erick Silva, strong enough to win against bad fighters but will struggle against good fighters.

**UncleChael** · 10-03-15, 06:46 PM

Thug Rose by Submission @ +165.