UFC 190: Rousey vs. Correia (August 01, 2015)

[fitguy67]

fair pay on 4# -bet in sz-roul is +825=10.81%P(W)...if +900 1-spin promo, you in?

Bethe's any 4#'s u choose

people thinkin' that "slim=none" is the promo

[JIBBBY]

we're 100% on the same page here Jibs...this is the highest-value "far more than just alive" dog that leaped off the card at me, based on my first-pass of simple record-comparison...

"quality of competition" difference is night and day

very similarly-aged but Cummins has a considerably less-experience on the one hand (and what there is, is of generally a far lower calibre, with exactly 2 glaring exception in which he did not distinguish himself at all)...

only "plus" you can orchestrate is if you spin the above backwards and say Cummins suffered far less wear and tear=is younger in fight years=is less likely to be "shot"...but Cavalcante's last outing was going 15mins a year ago against the currently-very-beastly Bader...something i'd have a part time picturing Cummins being able to endure...

gun to the head, price-ignorant pick'da'winna: Cavalcante

throw in the +155 and it's a no-brainer...only way to lose is if Cummins is suddenly better than we've ever seen him before AND/OR Cavalcante has worsened markedly (aka. is now "shot" as can happen to long-on-the-odometer fighters without warning)

even if the latter is the case...unless the first one is also sufficiently true the diff in baseline-quality is strongly in favor of Feijao...and even a slower/de-chinned version may very well be enough to survive and win on guile, grit and power (thevery last thing to "go") against Cummins who's never demonstrated a chin against good UFC-calibre opposition

Yep...PC will hold the wrestling advantage and probably will have is way Cav in that department early on though.. He did that with OSP..

I just remember Patrick breathing really hard after a round and then getting knocked out shortly after by OSP... He clearly gassed in that fight and became very lazy and slow with his stand up.. He does that with Cav he will go to sleep again.. At home in Brazil I think Cav weathers the early wrestling storm anyways...

Dog is live....

[UncleChael]

last 3 ronda fights combined = 1 minute and change.

Good luck with that.

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!! !

[JIBBBY]

Soa + Rousey under

Like these 2 plays alot UNC.... Hit them books hard make em sweat!!!!!

I'd be worried about the under if Rhonda Rousey was fighting Meisha Tate but she's not...Rhonda comes out charging hard and on fire in fights... She's looking to get out of there in a hurry and usually does of late.....

Bigfoot is complete garbage on stick these days also. Couldn't pay me to bet on that chump against anyone right now in the UFC...

Bigfoot literally looks like a diseased cripple in the cage these days without the TRT.. It's sad. I almost feel bad betting against him for some reason.. Arms are all skinny and he looks boney and not muscular like before..

Arlovski just knocked his lights out in Brazil in no time and see no reason to think anything will be different when Soa connects early on either.. The 265 pound Aussie Soa probably hits harder then Arlovski as well..

Like the Soa under more then the straight play as well... It's better value.. Don't think this fight gets out the first round.. Better yet wait for that 1st round finish prop to come out for Soa and it's golden..

If impatient and like better odds then this is probably the call and a winner too..

1505 Palelei wins inside distance

<input id="editx" name="M1_61" size="4"> -150

[fitguy67]

thing i'm most worried about this next card is ronda rousey will have to pull out with blown pouting/scowling muscles...

[UncleChael]

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UFC: Rousey v.s Correria countdowns -
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[JIBBBY]

^^^Fitguy If you're crazy enough to bet against Rhonda Rousey then take this prop for best value below.. If by miracle Rhonda Rousey loses this fight I doubt the champ will lose it by decision.. It's gonna be by KO most likely if the miracle does happen.. A perfect shot to the chin... Rhonda doesn't get sub'd out easily either and tap.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bethe-Correia-103069

Just trying to think most likely fight out come for best odds with the massive dog.. It's good insurance if anything else..

1037 Correia wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_18" name="radiox" type="radio">+1815

[JoshKnows46]

The plays to be made, I put in the hours for this event gents.... If you're going against any of these, you're in for a bad time..... Re-evaluate or think about passing. This is the cheat sheet, use it.

Magny wins by 3 round decision
Rousey inside the distance
Magny/Maia over 2.5 rounds
Patrick Cummins
Soa inside the distance
Big nog inside the distance
Rousey by Ko/Tko
Soa by ko/Tko and in the 1st round
Vitor Miranda

[JIBBBY]

^^ Thanks for sharing Josh.. Props can payoff big if you can figure out the most likely way a fight will end.. Fish out props for best value..

For example - You suggested Magny wins by decision above.. Magny could possibly pull off an Anderson Silva on Demain Maia and just completely run, stick and move til the final bell..

1707 Magny wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_74" name="radiox" type="radio">+220

Since I'm playing Maia I'm thinking once this fight gets to the ground Maia gets the submission or pound out win.. His most likely pathway to victory is by submission win IMO... I suppose he could lay and pray on Magny and win by decision but I'm thinking Sub win or pound out in Brazil.. No sub prop out yet, but this ITD prop at +300 is kinda juicy...

1709 Maia wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_75" name="radiox" type="radio">+300

[JoshKnows46]

^^ Thanks for sharing Josh.. Props can payoff big if you can figure out the most likely way a fight will end.. Fish out props for best value..

For example - You suggested Magny wins by decision above..

1707 Magny wins by 3 round decision

<input id="radiox" value="M1_74" name="radiox" type="radio">+220

Since I'm playing Maia I'm thinking once this fight gets to the ground Maia gets the submission or pound out win.. His most likely pathway to victory is by submission win IMO... I suppose he could lay and pray on Magny and win by decision but I'm thinking Sub win or pound out in Brazil.. No sub prop out yet, but this ITD at +300 is kinda juicy...

1709 Maia wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_75" name="radiox" type="radio">+300

Whens the last time Maia subbed someone? This fight is going the distance 100%.... 3 years ago, you'd have to go back 6 years ago to find another against the king of getting subbed charl sonnen... Maia itd has zero chance of happening, Maia's tough to finish though, so he'll survive the 3 rounds. Maia will struggle to get the takedown against magney who uses his reach very very well, he also won't be able to keep up with Magnys pace, and output, and footwork, a takedown will be virtually impossible midway thru the 2nd as Maia starts to gas. Easy decision victory for Magny, will extent his winning streak to 9 straight. Maia's on the downslide of his career, and Magny is at his peak. We are getting outstanding value because of Maia's name value, the straight line shoulda been -180 Magny if we're going purely off skill set and matchup.

[JIBBBY]

Whens the last time Maia subbed someone? This fight is going the distance 100%.... 3 years ago, you'd have to go back 6 years ago to find another against the king of getting subbed charl sonnen... Maia itd has zero chance of happening, Maia's tough to finish though, so he'll survive the 3 rounds. Maia will struggle to get the takedown against magney who uses his reach very very well, he also won't be able to keep up with Magnys pace, and output, and footwork, a takedown will be virtually impossible midway thru the 2nd as Maia starts to gas. Easy decision victory for Magny, will extent his wiring streak to 9 straight. Maia's on the downs life of his career, and Magny is at his peak.

Rick Story was Maia's last submission win back in October 2012. Maia does have 9 wins by way of submission and 9 wins by way of decision as a pro.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Demian-Maia-14637

Magny has been sub'd out twice in his pro career and being that this fight is in Brazil and how very good Demian Maia has looked in recent fights I just think once it's on the ground the former world jits champ will be able to lock in something or pound him out. (from the top position or in full mount).. Maia's TD's are better then ever right now.. Is fighting in his own backyard as well....









Against Rory Mac..full mount..

[JoshKnows46]

Maia/Magny over 2.5 rounds shoulda been set at -600, this is robbery at -220.

fighting is Brazil is gonna be more of a detriment to him in this fight that a reward, Magny clearly has the cardio advantge, Maia will gas hard in the Brazilian heat.

maia has 9 subs, 7 of them are over 6 years ago, Magny sub defense and takedown defense has clearly improved since the last time we saw him subbed. Absolutly zero percent chance Maia wins inside the distance.

[JIBBBY]

Absolutly zero percent chance Maia wins inside the distance.

I'll remember you said this...We will see Josh we will see???

All depends if Maia can take down Magny... Magnys ground game isn't in the same league as Maia... These are the facts and they are undisputed..

[fitguy67]

^^^Fitguy If you're crazy enough to bet against Rhonda Rousey then take this prop for best value below.. If by miracle Rhonda Rousey loses this fight I doubt the champ will lose it by decision.. It's gonna be by KO most likely if the miracle does happen.. A perfect shot to the chin... Rhonda doesn't get sub'd out easily either and tap.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Bethe-Correia-103069

Just trying to think most likely fight out come for best odds with the massive dog.. It's good insurance if anything else..

1037 Correia wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_18" name="radiox" type="radio">+1815

damn, you're right...this dog's ONLY chance is the storied "puncher's chance" (can't expect anything like what Koreshkov did vs. Douglas Lima last weekend=surprise everyone with a spankin' new previously almost-nonexistent ground game)...

you criminally-devious master of all things prop...I will now have to definitely risk another tootsie-roll to win a down payment on a car, lol

[JIBBBY]

damn, you're right...this dog's ONLY chance is the storied "puncher's chance" (can't expect anything like what Koreshkov did vs. Douglas Lima last weekend=surprise everyone with a spankin' new previously almost-nonexistent ground game)...

you criminally-devious master of all things prop...I will now have to definitely risk another tootsie-roll to win a down payment on a car, lol

(in light of #75 above, tho' might be a little less greedy and go ITD to cover the possibility of Ronda tapping do to spent scowling muscles...the VinceMcMahon-style "story arc" marketing does get tedious, dunnit?)

She has zero submission wins and Rhonda Rousey is a Judo Olympian.. Rouseys ground game is her strength..

Anything is possible in a fight though.. Just 2 people in a cage and we try to bet to their strengths..

[JoshKnows46]

I'll remember you said this...We will see Josh we will see???

All depends if Maia can take down Magny... Magnys ground game isn't in the same league as Maia... These are the facts and they are undisputed..

I just made a parlay on it... Maia not inside the distance -420

3% Maia finishes inside distance.
35% chance he gets even 1 single takedown
10% chance he gets a takedown after the first round.
35% chance he wins by lay n prey desision
65% chance he gets beat on for 3 straight rounds.

[JoshKnows46]

Jibby..


Free money....


Parlay:
Not Maia inside the distance -420
Not Aguilar inside distance -1035
Rousey/Correia doesn't start the 3rd -550
$150 to win $90.69

[JoshKnows46]

damn, you're right...this dog's ONLY chance is the storied "puncher's chance" (can't expect anything like what Koreshkov did vs. Douglas Lima last weekend=surprise everyone with a spankin' new previously almost-nonexistent ground game)...

you criminally-devious master of all things prop...I will now have to definitely risk another tootsie-roll to win a down payment on a car, lol

(in light of #75 above, tho' might be a little less greedy and go ITD to cover the possibility of Ronda tapping do to spent scowling muscles...the VinceMcMahon-style "story arc" marketing does get tedious, dunnit?)

These Two women could fight 100 times over, and Correia would not only lose 100 times, she would never ever ever evvvver make it pass the 2nd round in 100 fights. Should be a boxing line like -8000 and you'd still be Absolutly insane to bet Correia. Lmao seriously....the women she has beatin in the ufc have a combined record of 0-7 in the ufc, huge step down from what Ronda has been facing in the octagon. This is the lock of the century and it's still only at -950 inside the distance, take advantage of this...these beauty's don't come around often, it's basically like putting two -425 guys in a parlay, but it's the lock of the century, you'd be a fool not to be adding her to every single one of your bets. Should have atleast 50% of your bankroll on Rousey inside the distance.

[Heyeverybody99]

Josh I just maxed out not Ronda in first minute at -350, good bet?

[yacuna island]

I hope that guy is trolling about Correia.
Ronda is safer than bank interest.
0.000001% chance Ronda slips and knocks herself out with her own knee.

[mirinquads]

Ronda has a better chance of knocking her self out, than Betch has. Betch's technique is terrible, arm punches like crazy. She's literally the least skiilled title challenger against the most dominant champion (Even if you dont want to admit it) in the UFC.

[JoshKnows46]

Josh I just maxed out not Ronda in first minute at -350, good bet?

Not a bet I would ever make, if Ronda wants, she can finish it in 10 seconds. Her mom got on her big time when she heard about her wanted to make it last Ronda said, we all know the relationship she has with her mom, I knew the making it last talk was just to sell fights, but now I'm positive Ronda is changing her stance on it, if she did have it on her mind. At the same time, 1 minute is a short time, maybe you get lucky. If I bet over -200, I'm not betting on luck or hoping at all, I'm extremely confident in any bet I place over -200, at -350, that's why I say I'd never make that bet. Something out of the norm would have to happen for it to last longer, which is possible but I'm not confident in that.

[Sato]

The plays to be made, I put in the hours for this event gents.... If you're going against any of these, you're in for a bad time..... Re-evaluate or think about passing. This is the cheat sheet, use it.

Magny wins by 3 round decision
Rousey inside the distance
Magny/Maia over 2.5 rounds
Patrick Cummins
Soa inside the distance
Big nog inside the distance
Rousey by Ko/Tko
Soa by ko/Tko and in the 1st round
Vitor Miranda

Big Nog ITD I dont like. How can you put any money on zombie Nog? THere a million question marks surrounding Nog like is he alive? is his brain alive? can he even move his limbs? I mean come on...

[JIBBBY]

Jibby..


Free money....


Parlay:
Not Maia inside the distance -420
Not Aguilar inside distance -1035
Rousey/Correia doesn't start the 3rd -550
$150 to win $90.69

GL Josh...

I prefer to roll with this 2 teamer myself for better value and less risk - The 40 year old Nog brothers are both going down and out before the final bell.. Shogun knocked out little Nog 10 years ago and it's gonna be even easier this time to do it again.. Canatonic Big Nog is simply gonna be the sacrificial lamb in his fight against Struve..

$100	$290	Pending	2 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1109 Rua wins inside distance +110* <small>vs</small> Not Rua inside distance
				Pending	8/1/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1409 Struve wins inside distance -115* <small>vs</small> Not Struve inside distance

The safest free money parlay play (3 teamer) IMO - Shogun and Lit Nog are gonna stand and trade just like in their first fight and it will end before the final bell. Big Nog can't go 3 rounds if his life depended on it against Struve, and Soa is gonna put the decrepit Big Slow Foot to sleep early or gas out trying and lose himself before the final bell..

$100	$130	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/1/15 11:59pm Props Fighting 1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance -175* <small>vs</small> Rog Nogueira / Rua goes 3 round distance
				Pending	8/1/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1404 Fight won't go 3 round distance -420* <small>vs</small> Rod Nogueira / Struve goes 3 round dist
				Pending	8/1/15 10:30pm Props Fighting 1504 Fight won't go 3 round distance -530* <small>vs</small> Palelei / Silva goes 3 round distance

[omalley21]

Ronda has good Judo.

[mirinquads]

Ronda has good Judo.

Finally someone who understands, you fuken idiots

[Thor4140]

Ronda has a better chance of knocking her self out, than Betch has. Betch's technique is terrible, arm punches like crazy. She's literally the least skiilled title challenger against the most dominant champion (Even if you dont want to admit it) in the UFC.

Fighs like those rockum sockum robots with no speed. Im sure Rogan will tell us what a high level JU Jitz artist she is. Kinda like Cats black belt that is worthless. Only reason i give her a chance is because Sonnen almost beat Jones when a fluke almost happen. BTW i think it is time Tate says she will fight Cyborg at 140 to screw it to Rhonda

[fitguy67]

I hope that guy is trolling about Correia.
Ronda is safer than bank interest.
0.000001% chance Ronda slips and knocks herself out with her own knee.

yeah, just fukkin' around at the keyboard...

but weird shit determines L's/W's all the time...and my policy of hitting ALMOST-blindly anything north of +900 has stood me well (trick is to bet to WIN a unit or 2, risking only a pittance...risking a whole unit on fliers like this'll kill da'roll waiting for the occasional surprise hit...Newton over Mo, Brooks over Chandler, TJ over Barao...Christmas comes a few times a year...a little more often than the small price you pay for in these +900/higher raffle tickets)

[JIBBBY]

Combatpress card preview and predicitons - http://combatpress.com/2015/07/toe-t...d-predictions/

Bleacher report reasons to watch (slide show)- http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...eia-fight-card

[fitguy67]

Only reason i give her a chance is because Sonnen almost beat Jones when a fluke almost happen.

that's one of the seminal examples of "weird shit" that can easily happen to help drive in the point that
SLIM CHANCE <> NO CHANCE...
weird shit that can rape you of any substantial "investment you made" (actually a stake you risked) in what you thought was a sure thing (we always forget about the two words "damn near" that must precede "sure thing"...and that when the "damn near" clause gets invoked the huge stake you put up in pursuit of your sure-win vanishes in a catastrophe that more than eats up all $ from those many times you scored u'r small gain and thought u were an undiscovered genius in this game)

another reminder of weird shit that always CAN happen occurred a few weeks ago when Dave Rickels was a shoe-in to squash somebody and pulled a bonehead move that SO easily could have been construed a Loss by DQ...(just as Jones' toe coulda' easily led to a shitty-but-official L vs Sonnen...or his "vertical elbows" could have and DID given him a shitty-but-official L vs. Hammil)

a handy way to remember that SLIM <> NONE and that un-cappable "weird shit" can and will happen, is to think of Jon Jones: vs. Sonnen (where it almost happened) and vs. Hammil (where it did happen)...throw in the realization that shit decisions and inexplicable reff-ing/doctor-ing have been known to occur...and you have an ample case-book of reminders to wisely "Curb your Enthusiasm"

and to never confuse "risking $ in a bet on XYZ" with "investing $ in XYZ"

[PaperTrail07]

Dont Forget Taleb at +$$...otherwise I like it.....might lay off the hester/Vitor fight too...

The plays to be made, I put in the hours for this event gents.... If you're going against any of these, you're in for a bad time..... Re-evaluate or think about passing. This is the cheat sheet, use it.

Magny wins by 3 round decision
Rousey inside the distance
Magny/Maia over 2.5 rounds
Patrick Cummins
Soa inside the distance
Big nog inside the distance
Rousey by Ko/Tko
Soa by ko/Tko and in the 1st round
Vitor Miranda

[Sanity Check]

in related unconfirmed rumour, Bethe Correia's Nova Uniao camp is actually hoping that the Champ's face does hold together long enough...

Bethe training at nova uniao?

Bethe will come in roided and ripped as hell.

I'm calling it.

[fitguy67]

Bethe training at nova uniao?

You caught me failing to do adequate sherdog-search to back up my freestyle keyboarding...forgot she's with the Pitbull Bro's

[Killer_Demo]

Correira already looks horrendous, rousey said she will make her face look even worse than before. How much uglier can that Brazilian broad get?

[JIBBBY]

Correira already looks horrendous, rousey said she will make her face look even worse than before. How much uglier can that Brazilian broad get?

Butterface for sure.. She kinda looks like an over grown midget to me actually.. Short stocky limbs, big head, etc..

She's gonna catch a beating from Rhonda via the dead father disrespect comments. Had Rhonda tearing up on the UFC countdown interview.. That's one girl you don't want to piss off..