UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier (January 03, 2015)

[marzwoody]

skill rules...but size (especially the vertical dimension of it = reach) matters...

skill can and will overcome size/reach disadvantages...if that size disparity in play is matched/exceded by an equally wide skill advantage for the smaller competitor...

for almost any taller fighter on the planet of any weight-class (outside of, perhaps...Gus/Jones/Cain)...Cormier's other-worldly combination of aggression and wrestling easily makes up for any reach disadvantage...

but this "taller guy" is a still early-in-in-his-prime skill-marvel in his own rite, different set of skills to be sure, but among the absolute cream of the p4p crop, a LHW who fights and improvises like no other in history north of MW...

Cormier is definitely elite and a lock to ragdoll damn-near anyone on the planet except a Gus, a Jones, or a Cain

all you guys who are so dismissive of McGregor's continually-strengthening claim to greatness...have somehow been quick to taste a stronger batch of Cormier kool-aid than his credentials have thus far actually put in your glass

Cormier might just prove to be the toughest fight Jones has ever faced (altho' it's hard to imagine anything harder than that provided by Gustaffson--that ultra-violent virtual "dead heat" between two uber-atheletes set the bar for using the words "competitive" and "violent" in the same sentence)

everybody has seen the same tapes but we all weigh the readily-apparent factors differently as we run our own "simulation" tapes of Saturday's clash in our minds...

we'll see...i like DC a lot...I'd have bought his side at north of 200, but at current prices, i'll take the bet that any advantages Cormier is able to employ won't be enough to overcome that "reach" hole he finds himself in, in this bout

if DC surprises, i'll happily lose the bet and fall into the "true believer" camp

btw, i agree with Todd that the results of combat-sporting events (and their financial implications, positive or negative) need non carry any homosexual fellatio implications...unless one be already given to using such currency

Ricardo Lama would starch McGregor brah. so would Edgar Mendes and Aldo. patiently waiting for him to ridiculously be a hype fav against one of them so i can fade the fck out of him.

[fitguy67]

if DC surprises, i'll happily lose the bet and fall into the "true believer" camp and line up for the kool-aid I've been missing out on (as for mcGregor, Frankie looked SO good in his last outing agains Cub, I'm still not convinced he's the shoe-in he and his followers sincerely believe him to be)

i agree, Marzy...in fact, i was probably post-editing the bolded comment regarding McGregor's place in line at the same time as you reacting to me being a Notorious Nuthugger...

syncronicity is a beatuful 'ting

______________

BTW, I'm posting a corrected second sentence to the one you have quoted

skill can and will overcome size/reach disadvantages...if that size disparity is offset by an at-least equally-wide skill advantage for the smaller competitor...

i remember a few years ago when i first started lurking these hauls, one of the nicer posters on sbr ...name of "Gunshard" posted his analysis on a fight and unfortunately said something like

"both fighters have advantages in this area"...small mistake really, possibly even a typo...but they never let the poor guy live that down..."both have advantages" became one of the cruelist of inside jokes back then...and it was all instigated by that evil genius, Vauhany

(reminded me, at the time--and now--of an nonsense-answer to a nonsense riddle...can't remember the question but the answer was "because one of its legs are both the same"

anyhow, V...reminisce about this if you will (I remember you photo-shopping the poster for the movie about the retarded adult starring Sean Penn, changing the title to "I am "Gunshard")...but you were too late to catch me this time
and turn "matched/exceeded by an equally-wide margin" into a mean-spirited sub-forum expression

[brooks85]

it has to be mcgregor, or should be for business sense unless you want to paint a kenny florian image onto Edgar because he isn't going to beat Aldo.

They would be foolish to wait much longer for aldo/mcgregor, it is definitely happening in 2015.

[fitguy67]

it has to be mcgregor, or should be for business sense unless you want to paint a kenny florian image onto Edgar because he isn't going to beat Aldo.

They would be foolish to wait much longer for aldo/mcgregor, it is definitely happening in 2015.

also agree with you Brook that--from a marketing perspective--Conor is the only legit contender not painted with the Aldo "been there, came back empty" brush...

in the cases of Edgar and Mendes (his second crack at it)...they came up just SO short...that if Conor doesn't break thru and solve this puzzle...it's back to the end of line for him...a line with no-one credible at the front except for Edgar/Mendes (which btw would be an almost-lock for FOTFY)...

next best guy, Lamas and all others that spring to mind, not nearly as interesting
a potential challenge for Aldo as McGregor (a fresh challenge)...or Edgar/Mendes(...2nd/3rd time's a charm?)

[Thor4140]

Ricardo Lama would starch McGregor brah. so would Edgar Mendes and Aldo. patiently waiting for him to ridiculously be a hype fav against one of them so i can fade the fck out of him.

i actually believe Aldo is the easier fight for McGregor than the three u listed. Mcgregor never has to worry about a takedown unless Aldo's buddy at 145 teaches him how to go for one.

[fitguy67]

i actually believe Aldo is the easier fight for McGregor than the three u listed. Mcgregor never has to worry about a takedown unless Aldo's buddy at 145 teaches him how to go for one.

great point...as much as i hate to hear Rogan and Goldberg go on about the "threat of a takedown"...it makes a huge difference...conversely, it's why strikers MUST have great TDD (think Aldo and Jones)

biggest thing that Cub/Edgar fight showed me was just how great Aldo's "striking +TDD" package is compared to other highly-rated strikers like Cub/Poirier/Lamas etc...Edgar didn't have to worry about Aldo's or Cub's TD attempts either...but he couldn't take Aldo down at the drop of a hat as he did with Cub, which pretty much blocked any path to victory for the tattooed guy

[JIBBBY]

Speaking of Irish fighters - Me tinks Danny Castillo gets the job done against this Irish man at 9-0.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paul-Felder-68205...

Even at -230 Danny is the call I believe...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Danny-Castillo-26070

Sat 1/3		1501 Paul Felder		<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +190	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o2½ -150
9:30PM		1502 Danny Castillo		<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -230	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u2½ +120

[Retibol]

Who has the edge when it comes to Cardio?
Assuming Cormier will get a takedown 1st and 2nd round, how much will that affect Jones energy in the last rounds?

[marzwoody]

i actually believe Aldo is the easier fight for McGregor than the three u listed. Mcgregor never has to worry about a takedown unless Aldo's buddy at 145 teaches him how to go for one.

That's a good point Thor. i actually think Mendes could wrestle F him for five rounds.

Aldo Vs Edgar would be a crazy fight. i would put my money on Frankie but it could go either way.
Let's hope 2015 gives us all he fights we dream about.

[fitguy67]

That's a good point Thor. i actually think Mendes could wrestle F him for five rounds.

Aldo Vs Edgar would be a crazy fight. i would put my money on Frankie but it could go either way.
Let's hope 2015 gives us all he fights we dream about.

before some wise-ass prick jumps in here to TRY to make him/herself feel better by ridiculing someone else...let me assume that you must have made a poor choice of words, cuz it seems like you might not have known (gasp!) that Edgar-Aldo have indeed fought once before in our lifetimes, lol

it was Frankie's first fight at feather after losing two consecutive decisions to Bendo...

you said it "would be"...well, it WAS a hell of a fight...a fight Frankie clearly seems to have won both the championship rounds, but still lost the decision, but not a particularly controversial one...it was Frankie's third consecutive 5-round decision loss...poor guy, but we see now how that guy bounces back from adversity--i can't believe how thoroughly he made swanson look like a jouneyman

anyhow, that fight with Edgar --along with his second dance with Mendes--were easily the closest Aldo has ever been to losing his belt--and the only real competition he's had in years

[marzwoody]

before some wise-ass prick jumps in here to TRY to make him/herself feel better by ridiculing someone else...let me assume that you must have made a poor choice of words, cuz it seems like you might not have known (gasp!) that Edgar-Aldo have indeed fought once before in our lifetimes, lol

it was Frankie's first fight at feather after losing two consecutive decisions to Bendo...

you said it "would be"...well, it WAS a hell of a fight...a fight Frankie clearly seems to have won both the championship rounds, but still lost the decision, but not a particularly controversial one...it was Frankie's third consecutive 5-round decision loss...poor guy, but we see now how that guy bounces back from diversity--i can't believe how thoroughly he made a top-5 compadre look like a jouneyman

anyhow, that fight with Edgar --along with his second dance with Mendes--were easily the closest Aldo has ever been to losing his belt--and the only real competition he's had in years

Thanks for saving me bruh. i had completely forgot they even fought once. i wasen't hyped at all for that fight back then for some reason. i look forward to any FW title fight in 2015. most of all McGregors hype train getting de-railed by Aldo.

[Crassus]

it was Frankie's first fight at feather after losing two consecutive decisions to Bendo...

Second fight at feather, fought Oliveira first! Just messin mate.

So I decided to check out the reach stuff and I went through the top three or four fights of the last bellator and UFC cards, figuring that those guys were top billed so the reach stats would be more accurate. The categories are close (-200 max fav.), average (-450 max fav.) and high odds (-450 +) of the match-up. I know its a small sample size but still kinda interesting.

Fighter A	Fighter B	Fighter A reach	Fighter B Reach	Fighter A Odds	Fighter B Odds	Reach Differential
Lyoto Machida	CB Dollaway	74	76	-860	675	2
Renan Barao	Mitch Gagnon	70.5	68	-1000	800	2.5
Patrick Cummins	Antonio Carlos Jr.	76	79	-145	135	3
Junior Dos Santos	Stipe Miocic	77	80	-400	355	3
Rafael Dos Anjos	Nate Diaz	71	76	-275	250	5	Stats:
Alistair Overeem	Stefan Struve	80	83	-200	185	3	Wins	Close	Average	High
Carla Esparza	Rose Namajunas	64	65	-110	-110	1	Longer Reach	4	3	3
Charles Oliveira	Jeremy Stephens	73	71	170	-185	2	Tie	-	-	1
Yancy Medeiros	Joe Proctor	77	72	-250	230	5	Shorter Reach	4	5	3
Robbie Lawler	Johny Hendricks	74	69	-220	200	5
Anthony Pettis	Gilbert Melendez	72	73	-315	285	1	5+ Reach Advantage
Travis Browne	Brendan Schaub	80	78.5	-450	400	1.5	Longer Reach	0	2	2
Tito Ortiz	Stephan Bonnar	74	80	-165	155	6	Tie	-	-	-
Will Brooks	Michael Chandler	71	69	170	-185	2	Shorter Reach	1.00	2	0
Joe Schilling	Melvin Manhoef	75	71	155	-165	4
Mike Richman	Nam Pham	68.5	70	-380	340	1.5
Emanuel Newton	Linton Vassell	75	82	-330	300	7
Bobby Lashley	Karl Etherington	78	69	-1000	800	9
Marloes Coenen	Annalisa Bucci	67.5	69	-800	635	1.5
Dave Jansen	Rick Hawn	72	71	160	-185	1
Joe Warren	Eduardo Dantas	69	69	450	-525	0
Michael Page	Nah-Shon Burrell	77	71	-475	420	6
Alexander Sarnavskiy	Dakota Cochrane	70.5	72	-500	435	1.5

[Thor4140]

great point...as much as i hate to hear Rogan and Goldberg go on about the "threat of a takedown"...it makes a huge difference...conversely, it's why strikers MUST have great TDD (think Aldo and Jones)

biggest thing that Cub/Edgar fight showed me was just how great Aldo's "striking +TDD" package is compared to other highly-rated strikers like Cub/Poirier/Lamas etc...Edgar didn't have to worry about Aldo's or Cub's TD attempts either...but he couldn't take Aldo down at the drop of a hat as he did with Cub, which pretty much blocked any path to victory for the tattooed guy

i had Edgar winning 3-2 over Aldo. People gave Aldo round 5 because of one punch he landed at the end

[Thor4140]

If Mcgregor somehow beat Aldo which i highly doubt it would be interesting to see who his first challenger would be. Probably Swanson and then they can let Mendes, Frankie and Lamas all fight each other to protect the Irish boy.

[rocky16]

i had Edgar winning 3-2 over Aldo. People gave Aldo round 5 because of one punch he landed at the end

Had same. Gave Edgar last 3 rounds.

[fitguy67]

Hey Crass, yeah you're right about Frankie meeting Oliveira first..

good stuff on the reach thing

____________

you're obviously quite solid on the data-mining stuff...maybe can help me out with a basic beginner question

where can i find historical (just from Jan01, 2014 to present is adequate for now, going further bak even better) UFC results

ultra-simple: apart from the even date/name and fighters' name just need>>>Closing Price/Fight Result

______________

key requirement it's all in one place and already in or readily "cutnpastable" into excel.xls format

once i've got data in excel i'm fine...but i've never picked up any "scraping" skills to automate the process of getting it there, and it's too time-consuming to eyeball and type things out one event at a time

i thought for sure oddsbreaker.com would have something but seems not...

for team sports oddsportal is good for cutnpastable odds&result, but nothing for MMA

_____________

anybody else knowing where to get a simple set of excel-compatible prices & results data...
to prevent wiki-insanity/carpal-tunnel...can chime in too

i want to quickly whip something up and don't want to spend hours manually getting the data

[fitguy67]

If Mcgregor somehow beat Aldo which i highly doubt it would be interesting to see who his first challenger would be. Probably Swanson and then they can let Mendes, Frankie and Lamas all fight each other to protect the Irish boy.

agree...lamas, swanson, poirier in that order are all in the second teir...Aldo, Edgar, and Mendes are a different kettle of fish...Zuffa would milk whatever "reign" they get out of Connor by dealing out challengers from the bottom of that 6-card deck

they do a similar thing with Rousey...and if Connor were champ, we'd likely be getting guick stoppages at the earliest of his flurries...like Rousey over McMann...fuckin' Herb Dean calls the fight due to the "threat of follow up punches"...fishiest stoppage ever (well that and Faber's last shot at Barao...don't remember the ref in that one...but just like Rousey/McMann it was in the main event and ripped off everybody of a fair scrap, especially the challenger)

Zingano's the toughest broad that Rousey will have ever faced (judging from their fights with common-opponent Tate, seems like the two at least belong in same cage and the current+750 on Zinger is a bargoon)...she's durable as hell...and if she gets quick stopped it won't be to "protect" her...it'll be to protect the "bitchy blonde armbar machine" they seem to love so much...just like McGregor, but 10 pounds lighter and sits down to pee

don't you love "sports entertainment" when the second word gets increasingly more emphasis...

[Crassus]

just need>>>Closing Price/Fight Result

anybody else knowing where to get a simple set of excel-compatible prices & results data...
to prevent wiki-insanity/carpal-tunnel...can chime in too
i want to quickly whip something up and don't want to spend hours manually getting the data

I'm going to go out on a limb and say if you hope to get all of those odds it's gonna take a few hours regardless. UFC had like 50 events this year alone, then Bellator and WSOF, lotta fights.

I'd say the easiest thing to do is go Event by Event on BFO and copy and paste that directly into excel, then just quickly delete whichever odds you don't want but it's still simple enough. Then I'd go on a website that lists the event results in a universal format I.E. WINNER vs LOSER, copy and paste those into the spreadsheet with the appropriate labels. Then you just make a new page for each event, copy the WINNER vs LOSER info and then put a sumif formula linking to the BFO page and just copy down. Something along those lines.

[fitguy67]

thanks, about what i'd expected...couldn't hurt to ask iin hopes that there's some nice google-doc everybody was massaging and sharing...

BestFightOdds.com and lotsa clicking it is

[fitguy67]

BFO conveniently has the 5d prices in the first column...so easy to edit as you suggested

you're right...a countif/sumif approach will overcome any format inconsistencies between the sources

thanks for pointing me in the right dir'n

[Thor4140]

Had same. Gave Edgar last 3 rounds.

Rock u are throwing me a curve ball

[seljobeljo]

Had same. Gave Edgar last 3 rounds.

I had it 4-1 for Aldo.

[rocky16]

Rock u are throwing me a curve ball

Had Edgar winning 3-2. Gave Aldo first two rounds and Edgar last 3 rounds.

[rocky16]

I had it 4-1 for Aldo.

Who the fock asked you Fatboy?

[JIBBBY]

^ Rocky you must be from New York or Jersey??? lol....

[rocky16]

^ Rocky you must be from New York or Jersey??? lol....

From a superior location pal. NY and Jersey filled with focking hardos. Wanna be tough guys who grew up in the suburbs spending all their money on hair gel and fake tans. Grow up and marry some jersey skank who is only good for sucking massive amounts of cokk and shitting out some more ginny trash. I'd like to see one of these hardos step to me, I'll slap the grease right off their phaget heads.

[mirinquads]

I hope Jury isn't paying that quack much. Ridiculous

Don't you steal my old avatar, you lil pussy

[Thor4140]

Had Edgar winning 3-2. Gave Aldo first two rounds and Edgar last 3 rounds.

My old buddy Defact use to argue all the time with me saying Aldo won. I thought the two of you were good friends.

[Vaughany]

i agree, Marzy...in fact, i was probably post-editing the bolded comment regarding McGregor's place in line at the same time as you reacting to me being a Notorious Nuthugger...

syncronicity is a beatuful 'ting

______________

BTW, I'm posting a corrected second sentence to the one you have quoted



i remember a few years ago when i first started lurking these hauls, one of the nicer posters on sbr ...name of "Gunshard" posted his analysis on a fight and unfortunately said something like

"both fighters have advantages in this area"...small mistake really, possibly even a typo...but they never let the poor guy live that down..."both have advantages" became one of the cruelist of inside jokes back then...and it was all instigated by that evil genius, Vauhany

(reminded me, at the time--and now--of an nonsense-answer to a nonsense riddle...can't remember the question but the answer was "because one of its legs are both the same"

anyhow, V...reminisce about this if you will (I remember you photo-shopping the poster for the movie about the retarded adult starring Sean Penn, changing the title to "I am "Gunshard")...but you were too late to catch me this time
and turn "matched/exceeded by an equally-wide margin" into a mean-spirited sub-forum expression

Was more of an accumaltion of gunshard classics that led to that. He was famous for stating the obvious! And of course he also created the much respected youtube fighter highlights comparison system!

[rocky16]

My old buddy Defact use to argue all the time with me saying Aldo won. I thought the two of you were good friends.

Friends disagree everyday pally. Its like the one time I was nailing my buddy's Hoer wife. He didn't think I should be focking her, I disagreed.

[Beelzebubzy]

THE FINAL TALLY
Pros Picking Cormier: 20
Pros Picking Jones: 11

[shabang]

absolutley loving cormier's confidence .. He already has the belt in his mind..I love it. I think this fight goes to decision. I really think dc takes this.

Either way, I'll prob be having a panic attack the entire fight.

[Beelzebubzy]

Didnt Cormier have difficulty taking down Mir and Nelson?

[mirinquads]

Didnt Cormier have difficulty taking down Mir and Nelson?

Didn't really think he wanted Mir down, and he pretty much got Nelson down when he wanted, 3 times or so with some pretty slick takedowns where he kinda fools Nelson and used his own weight against him. Not that he needed it much, as he was slapping him around on the feet.

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins tonight... http://www.mmafighting.com/2015/1/2/...weigh-in-video