Whats crackalackin my niggas.
I'm not here tryna say im the billy walters of ufc handicapping but I did train extensively in MMA but due to tearing my LCL, the rest is history. BooHoo life goes on.
I do not look at fights with a mathematical standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I am good at math and I believe it is a great tool for handicapping sports. However, in MMA where it is a 1 on 1 sport, math isn't as valuable as emotions. The slightest emotions really can give you that extra boost in the end to keep going/finish the fight.
How I handicap MMA is, basically fight history - win/loss (how they win or lose is just as important as winning or losing), fight styles, height and reach, and finally weigh ins.
My first pick for ufc 167 is... Phil "billy" Harris. +315
Billy at age 30 is truly at his prime. Now battle of their primes would be diff story. I digress...
Billy 5'4 n 64 in reach
Lineker 5'2 n 67 reach
If you calculate height and reach, their ability to get to each other is identical unless one is a outside or counter fighter like lyoto or silva, at which point reach has more value than height (kicks which wont play a big role in this match up should be calculated thru height)
We know that lineker has hands but if you saw the weigh ins, he came out as 138. If you know anything, you know that those last minute cuts kills your cardio and that mmmph you need to get those takedowns or w/e. The longer the fight lasts, billy's chances go up. So if your a live bettor keep a lookout at the lines.
2nd pick is... John Tuck +135
Since I pretty much explained how I handicap mma, ill put the essentials.
John has reach advantage.
John is undefeated( you know how ufc loves preserving records and champions), so if it comes to a close decision you can put money that john is gonna the split.
John Tuck is gonna come out banging, you best believe.
3rd pick is the main event. Mark Munoz +315
Okay you Lyoto fanboys talk your shit and then just gtfo.
I like the dragon just as much as the next person but Mark has advantages in a couple areas.
First, Munoz has more muscle mass and it isn't his first weight cut to 185. If you saw the ufc167 weigh ins, lyoto looked like he had to lose muscle mass to get to 185. (Insert the whole shogun should drop weight argument). People take weight cuts differently and Lyoto decided to go with the overall mass drop instead of the water weight cut. (different advantages)
Although lyoto definitely has an advantage in stand up, due to his fancy footwork and HnR(height n reach), if and when munoz takes Lyoto down and does his donkey kong ground and pound, its bye bye for lyoto.
Yes lyoto has a decent takedown defense vs bjj fighters. But his takedown defense vs wrestlers is just bad. And you can bet money that munoz isn't gonna try to tap out lyoto unless he somehow lets himself into a bad position on the ground.
Bonus! I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons but if you really want another bet take Melvin Guillard(-135) over Ross Pearson.
These are my 2 cents. I am not a professional or even an amateur sports bettor, so take all my information with a grain of salt.
I'm not here tryna say im the billy walters of ufc handicapping but I did train extensively in MMA but due to tearing my LCL, the rest is history. BooHoo life goes on.
I do not look at fights with a mathematical standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I am good at math and I believe it is a great tool for handicapping sports. However, in MMA where it is a 1 on 1 sport, math isn't as valuable as emotions. The slightest emotions really can give you that extra boost in the end to keep going/finish the fight.
How I handicap MMA is, basically fight history - win/loss (how they win or lose is just as important as winning or losing), fight styles, height and reach, and finally weigh ins.
My first pick for ufc 167 is... Phil "billy" Harris. +315
Billy at age 30 is truly at his prime. Now battle of their primes would be diff story. I digress...
Billy 5'4 n 64 in reach
Lineker 5'2 n 67 reach
If you calculate height and reach, their ability to get to each other is identical unless one is a outside or counter fighter like lyoto or silva, at which point reach has more value than height (kicks which wont play a big role in this match up should be calculated thru height)
We know that lineker has hands but if you saw the weigh ins, he came out as 138. If you know anything, you know that those last minute cuts kills your cardio and that mmmph you need to get those takedowns or w/e. The longer the fight lasts, billy's chances go up. So if your a live bettor keep a lookout at the lines.
2nd pick is... John Tuck +135
Since I pretty much explained how I handicap mma, ill put the essentials.
John has reach advantage.
John is undefeated( you know how ufc loves preserving records and champions), so if it comes to a close decision you can put money that john is gonna the split.
John Tuck is gonna come out banging, you best believe.
3rd pick is the main event. Mark Munoz +315
Okay you Lyoto fanboys talk your shit and then just gtfo.
I like the dragon just as much as the next person but Mark has advantages in a couple areas.
First, Munoz has more muscle mass and it isn't his first weight cut to 185. If you saw the ufc167 weigh ins, lyoto looked like he had to lose muscle mass to get to 185. (Insert the whole shogun should drop weight argument). People take weight cuts differently and Lyoto decided to go with the overall mass drop instead of the water weight cut. (different advantages)
Although lyoto definitely has an advantage in stand up, due to his fancy footwork and HnR(height n reach), if and when munoz takes Lyoto down and does his donkey kong ground and pound, its bye bye for lyoto.
Yes lyoto has a decent takedown defense vs bjj fighters. But his takedown defense vs wrestlers is just bad. And you can bet money that munoz isn't gonna try to tap out lyoto unless he somehow lets himself into a bad position on the ground.
Bonus! I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons but if you really want another bet take Melvin Guillard(-135) over Ross Pearson.
These are my 2 cents. I am not a professional or even an amateur sports bettor, so take all my information with a grain of salt.
