hus7ler's UFC 167 picks

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  • hus7ler
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-25-13
    • 274

    #1
    hus7ler's UFC 167 picks
    Whats crackalackin my niggas.
    I'm not here tryna say im the billy walters of ufc handicapping but I did train extensively in MMA but due to tearing my LCL, the rest is history. BooHoo life goes on.

    I do not look at fights with a mathematical standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I am good at math and I believe it is a great tool for handicapping sports. However, in MMA where it is a 1 on 1 sport, math isn't as valuable as emotions. The slightest emotions really can give you that extra boost in the end to keep going/finish the fight.

    How I handicap MMA is, basically fight history - win/loss (how they win or lose is just as important as winning or losing), fight styles, height and reach, and finally weigh ins.

    My first pick for ufc 167 is... Phil "billy" Harris. +315
    Billy at age 30 is truly at his prime. Now battle of their primes would be diff story. I digress...
    Billy 5'4 n 64 in reach
    Lineker 5'2 n 67 reach
    If you calculate height and reach, their ability to get to each other is identical unless one is a outside or counter fighter like lyoto or silva, at which point reach has more value than height (kicks which wont play a big role in this match up should be calculated thru height)
    We know that lineker has hands but if you saw the weigh ins, he came out as 138. If you know anything, you know that those last minute cuts kills your cardio and that mmmph you need to get those takedowns or w/e. The longer the fight lasts, billy's chances go up. So if your a live bettor keep a lookout at the lines.

    2nd pick is... John Tuck +135
    Since I pretty much explained how I handicap mma, ill put the essentials.
    John has reach advantage.
    John is undefeated( you know how ufc loves preserving records and champions), so if it comes to a close decision you can put money that john is gonna the split.
    John Tuck is gonna come out banging, you best believe.

    3rd pick is the main event. Mark Munoz +315
    Okay you Lyoto fanboys talk your shit and then just gtfo.
    I like the dragon just as much as the next person but Mark has advantages in a couple areas.
    First, Munoz has more muscle mass and it isn't his first weight cut to 185. If you saw the ufc167 weigh ins, lyoto looked like he had to lose muscle mass to get to 185. (Insert the whole shogun should drop weight argument). People take weight cuts differently and Lyoto decided to go with the overall mass drop instead of the water weight cut. (different advantages)
    Although lyoto definitely has an advantage in stand up, due to his fancy footwork and HnR(height n reach), if and when munoz takes Lyoto down and does his donkey kong ground and pound, its bye bye for lyoto.
    Yes lyoto has a decent takedown defense vs bjj fighters. But his takedown defense vs wrestlers is just bad. And you can bet money that munoz isn't gonna try to tap out lyoto unless he somehow lets himself into a bad position on the ground.

    Bonus! I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons but if you really want another bet take Melvin Guillard(-135) over Ross Pearson.

    These are my 2 cents. I am not a professional or even an amateur sports bettor, so take all my information with a grain of salt.
  • MD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-31-12
    • 9728

    #2
    Comment
    • PunisherIND
      SBR MVP
      • 02-24-11
      • 4979

      #3
      Originally posted by hus7ler
      I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons
      what are the reasons?
      Comment
      • Ron_Paul_2012
        SBR MVP
        • 01-31-13
        • 3953

        #4
        Originally posted by hus7ler
        Whats crackalackin my niggas.
        I'm not here tryna say im the billy walters of ufc handicapping but I did train extensively in MMA but due to tearing my LCL, the rest is history. BooHoo life goes on.

        I do not look at fights with a mathematical standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I am good at math and I believe it is a great tool for handicapping sports. However, in MMA where it is a 1 on 1 sport, math isn't as valuable as emotions. The slightest emotions really can give you that extra boost in the end to keep going/finish the fight.

        How I handicap MMA is, basically fight history - win/loss (how they win or lose is just as important as winning or losing), fight styles, height and reach, and finally weigh ins.

        My first pick for ufc 167 is... Phil "billy" Harris. +315
        Billy at age 30 is truly at his prime. Now battle of their primes would be diff story. I digress...
        Billy 5'4 n 64 in reach
        Lineker 5'2 n 67 reach
        If you calculate height and reach, their ability to get to each other is identical unless one is a outside or counter fighter like lyoto or silva, at which point reach has more value than height (kicks which wont play a big role in this match up should be calculated thru height)
        We know that lineker has hands but if you saw the weigh ins, he came out as 138. If you know anything, you know that those last minute cuts kills your cardio and that mmmph you need to get those takedowns or w/e. The longer the fight lasts, billy's chances go up. So if your a live bettor keep a lookout at the lines.

        2nd pick is... John Tuck +135
        Since I pretty much explained how I handicap mma, ill put the essentials.
        John has reach advantage.
        John is undefeated( you know how ufc loves preserving records and champions), so if it comes to a close decision you can put money that john is gonna the split.
        John Tuck is gonna come out banging, you best believe.

        3rd pick is the main event. Mark Munoz +315
        Okay you Lyoto fanboys talk your shit and then just gtfo.
        I like the dragon just as much as the next person but Mark has advantages in a couple areas.
        First, Munoz has more muscle mass and it isn't his first weight cut to 185. If you saw the ufc167 weigh ins, lyoto looked like he had to lose muscle mass to get to 185. (Insert the whole shogun should drop weight argument). People take weight cuts differently and Lyoto decided to go with the overall mass drop instead of the water weight cut. (different advantages)
        Although lyoto definitely has an advantage in stand up, due to his fancy footwork and HnR(height n reach), if and when munoz takes Lyoto down and does his donkey kong ground and pound, its bye bye for lyoto.
        Yes lyoto has a decent takedown defense vs bjj fighters. But his takedown defense vs wrestlers is just bad. And you can bet money that munoz isn't gonna try to tap out lyoto unless he somehow lets himself into a bad position on the ground.

        Bonus! I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons but if you really want another bet take Melvin Guillard(-135) over Ross Pearson.

        These are my 2 cents. I am not a professional or even an amateur sports bettor, so take all my information with a grain of salt.
        Great post! Very useful. I am on the opposite end of all your picks except Guillard. Keep up the great work! Wonderful fade material.
        Comment
        • Educ8d Degener8
          SBR MVP
          • 01-12-10
          • 3177

          #5
          LOL of course you r on the other side RP. This guy is picking dogs.
          Comment
          • MD
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-31-12
            • 9728

            #6
            Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
            LOL of course you r on the other side RP. This guy is picking dogs.
            There's an "All Dogs go to Heaven" airbetting joke in here somewhere.
            Comment
            • mirinquads
              SBR MVP
              • 04-22-13
              • 3927

              #7
              I like that you used a 7 instead of a T to spell Hustler, which I assume is the name?

              That is all
              Comment
              • hus7ler
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-25-13
                • 274

                #8
                Originally posted by PunisherIND
                what are the reasons?
                To explain to a true professional "investor" as yourself, I choose to pick dogs over favorites purely because I would have to be right more often than I am wrong, if i were to pick favorites. Ya its true that lineker might ko billy or lyoto might do his lyoto cross to ko munoz. But if i win either of these fights and lose the other two, I still cover both losses AND still make a bit of chump change. If you follow grand master of ufc Medical Doctor, fade all the fights I handicapped, and you lose this fight to "variance", you wont cover much of your losses.

                P.S. its a good thing that you guys are fading me, that means thats one more chump to give me better lines in the future. Next time I'll just post and then bet after you "1%ers" fade me so I get better lines.
                Comment
                • Vaughany
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 03-07-10
                  • 45563

                  #9
                  DFC is back!
                  Comment
                  • Vaughany
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 03-07-10
                    • 45563

                    #10
                    Originally posted by hus7ler
                    Whats crackalackin my niggas.
                    I'm not here tryna say im the billy walters of ufc handicapping but I did train extensively in MMA but due to tearing my LCL, the rest is history. BooHoo life goes on.

                    I do not look at fights with a mathematical standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I am good at math and I believe it is a great tool for handicapping sports. However, in MMA where it is a 1 on 1 sport, math isn't as valuable as emotions. The slightest emotions really can give you that extra boost in the end to keep going/finish the fight.

                    How I handicap MMA is, basically fight history - win/loss (how they win or lose is just as important as winning or losing), fight styles, height and reach, and finally weigh ins.

                    My first pick for ufc 167 is... Phil "billy" Harris. +315
                    Billy at age 30 is truly at his prime. Now battle of their primes would be diff story. I digress...
                    Billy 5'4 n 64 in reach
                    Lineker 5'2 n 67 reach
                    If you calculate height and reach, their ability to get to each other is identical unless one is a outside or counter fighter like lyoto or silva, at which point reach has more value than height (kicks which wont play a big role in this match up should be calculated thru height)
                    We know that lineker has hands but if you saw the weigh ins, he came out as 138. If you know anything, you know that those last minute cuts kills your cardio and that mmmph you need to get those takedowns or w/e. The longer the fight lasts, billy's chances go up. So if your a live bettor keep a lookout at the lines.

                    2nd pick is... John Tuck +135
                    Since I pretty much explained how I handicap mma, ill put the essentials.
                    John has reach advantage.
                    John is undefeated( you know how ufc loves preserving records and champions), so if it comes to a close decision you can put money that john is gonna the split.
                    John Tuck is gonna come out banging, you best believe.

                    3rd pick is the main event. Mark Munoz +315
                    Okay you Lyoto fanboys talk your shit and then just gtfo.
                    I like the dragon just as much as the next person but Mark has advantages in a couple areas.
                    First, Munoz has more muscle mass and it isn't his first weight cut to 185. If you saw the ufc167 weigh ins, lyoto looked like he had to lose muscle mass to get to 185. (Insert the whole shogun should drop weight argument). People take weight cuts differently and Lyoto decided to go with the overall mass drop instead of the water weight cut. (different advantages)
                    Although lyoto definitely has an advantage in stand up, due to his fancy footwork and HnR(height n reach), if and when munoz takes Lyoto down and does his donkey kong ground and pound, its bye bye for lyoto.
                    Yes lyoto has a decent takedown defense vs bjj fighters. But his takedown defense vs wrestlers is just bad. And you can bet money that munoz isn't gonna try to tap out lyoto unless he somehow lets himself into a bad position on the ground.

                    Bonus! I'm not a big fan of picking favorites for obvious reasons but if you really want another bet take Melvin Guillard(-135) over Ross Pearson.

                    These are my 2 cents. I am not a professional or even an amateur sports bettor, so take all my information with a grain of salt.
                    lmaoooooooo
                    Comment
                    • The iron sheik
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-17-13
                      • 1105

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                      Great post! Very useful. I am on the opposite end of all your picks except Guillard. Keep up the great work! Wonderful fade material.
                      No one would have ever guessed you are going to play every favorite on the card...
                      Comment
                      • Noleafclover
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-06-13
                        • 1349

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Vaughany
                        lmaoooooooo
                        That was my favorite as well. Also liked how 30 is prime age for 135ers, and height + reach is all you need to know. Should be all over Barnatt.
                        Comment
                        • Vaughany
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 03-07-10
                          • 45563

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Noleafclover
                          That was my favorite as well. Also liked how 30 is prime age for 135ers, and height + reach is all you need to know. Should be all over Barnatt.
                          ha you should of been!


                          looks like my dawg picked the wrong dawwwgs!
                          Comment
                          • hus7ler
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-25-13
                            • 274

                            #14
                            I was wrong.
                            Comment
                            • DSSCA
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 03-07-12
                              • 454

                              #15
                              Originally posted by hus7ler
                              I was wrong.
                              Nah man, you did great
                              Comment
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