The psychological edge in fighting -- a 10-25% edge?

[TheCalculator]

I'm sharpening my handicapping skills and I'd thought I'd share my own personal integrations.

I lost 2 significant wagers in the last week and I made the same mistake in both.

To be fair, the way that fight ended, you could make no argument with any sort of certainty as to who was the right side (Pettis vs. Benson).

I felt like this at first also (for the record I was BIG on Benson).

However -- I was aware at the interviews, the weigh-in and especially at the walk-in that Pettis had the psychological edge. I literally said to myself "Holy penetrate he's focused." when he walked out.

The man was DA ZONE.

Moving forward -- I'm just betting on the other side in these situations.

I'm definitely going to start using the psychological factor far more significantly in my capping moving forward.

Other recent examples that come to mind: Dos Anjos (vs. Cowboy), Ellenberger (vs. Nate).

I saw the same focused drive with Dos Anjos in the walk in. Plus Cowboy was a NEGATIVE in the psych dept. So that should of been my clue.

It's a good reminder that fighting comes down to: WILL AND SKILL.

As fawkin cheesy as this sounds... When a guy has the "eye of the tiger" he will beat a man with equal skill who is not as determined almost every time.

Here's one of my favorite Bruce Lee quotes:

"You must have complete determination. The worst opponent you can come across is one whose aim has become an obsession. For instance, if a man has decided that he is going to bite off your nose no matter what happens to him in the process, the chances are he will succeed in doing it. He may be severely beaten up, too, but that will not stop him from carrying out his objective. That is the real fighter."

[Noleafclover]

Ya, a good point. And you can still bet during the walkout @ 5dimes, correct?

[NunyaBidness]

While there is definitely a psychological component involved, to throw out some numbers like 10 - 25% when you have absolutely no data to back it up is pretty silly.

There's also the problem of hindsight bias, you are going to tend to remember the fighters who appear 'focused' or whatever when they win, especially if its an upset, and forget about it when they lose.

You can only work with data going forward, not backward. You're always going to find patterns that fit looking backwards.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Because I usually go big or stay home. I spend hours watching/listening (analyzing) interviews. Reading articles of the two fighters that I am breaking down. I find out about drug habit's, injuries, girl friend problem's etc. I take everything into consideration. I usually only bet one or two fights per event. If I do not feel certain about the outcome then I stay away. If I have to stay away from one or two events in a row, then so be it. I have seen guys let fear overcome them & have melt down's on their way to the ring or cage in both boxing & MMA. The power of belief is huge.

[cheeese]

If you can't quantify it how do you know if it has been priced into the line already? If you are correct and then the market adjusts later, you won't know until you have lost a pile of money.

[TheCalculator]

While there is definitely a psychological component involved, to throw out some numbers like 10 - 25% when you have absolutely no data to back it up is pretty silly.

Silly? So what are saying? Wait 5 years to build up the data?

Isn't any number better than NO number?

Your comment (and overall thought pattern) reminds me of guys that say "N1 studies are useless. Anecdotal evidence is garbage."

In my field of business -- the BEST OF THE BEST (guys with over 450 trained champions) were doing wild crazy things in the gym 2 decades ago. There was absolutely no research proving what they did worked. BUT IT WORKED. And only now 20 years later is scientific studies starting to catch up and prove "why" it worked. I've seen this over and over again in different fields.

Nunya -- are you discounting intuition? Maybe if you would of fought a few dozen times you KNOW intuitively that what I'm saying is TRUE... I could share a few interesting street fighting stories to illustrate my point, but I don't have time.

I have my formulas that I use and for now (I'm sure it will change and get more precise with more data) -- I will use this silly thrown out number to tweak things.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Ya, a good point. And you can still bet during the walkout @ 5dimes, correct?

With many websites you can live bet in between rounds as well.

[TheCalculator]

Ya, a good point. And you can still bet during the walkout @ 5dimes, correct?

As Ron said... This is where Live Betting is the best.

With 5Dimes -- it's in between rounds for the main card.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

With many websites you can live bet in between rounds as well.

I got Condit @ -185 after the first round against Kampmann. If you have never live bet before I must warn you that the odds can change while you are trying to place your bet. You must be quick.

[Beelzebubzy]

Nunya is there any data on 'gut' plays?


Regarding psychological advantages - V is always mentioning things that guys say in interviews week before the fight. Cerrone admitted he was scared.

[Sykes]

Everything about Mir looked like he was up for it last night but it didn't work out. It plays into it for sure would just have it in your thinking though rather than bet on in because of it.

[MD]

Nunya is there any data on 'gut' plays?

I feel like there is.

[Beelzebubzy]

I feel like there is.

I think that is just your gut telling you that

[TheCalculator]

Everything about Mir looked like he was up for it last night but it didn't work out. It plays into it for sure would just have it in your thinking though rather than bet on in because of it.

Mir did look solid. But psychologically -- very few people can beat Josh. I think Josh is one of those guys that let you take out his eyes on his way to eat your nose.

[Sykes]

I agree with what your saying, just dont see it as a reason to bet, even after the fight Mir says hes up for it and all this, it plays some part for sure.

Oh an get a DSI account through the place you got the pic : ) - whe you see Hendo wincing from the body kicks bet the fuk out of Pettis. Sickened I didn't, I instead bet the fuk out of Vera in r1 + 2

[MD]

Mir did look solid. But psychologically -- very few people can beat Josh. I think Josh is one of those guys that let you take out his eyes on his way to eat your nose.

Hindsight. All of the discussion beforehand here was about how Barnett looked especially fat and unmotivated, while Mir looked the best he ever has. I'm pretty sure you even said the same thing in a PM.

[TheCalculator]

Hindsight. All of the discussion beforehand here was about how Barnett looked especially fat and unmotivated, while Mir looked the best he ever has. I'm pretty sure you even said the same thing in a PM.

YES I was worried about Barnett at the weigh-in but not because of his mind, but his body. Guy looks like a bag of milk, which worried me and I was NOT as confident in my bet (but had nothing to do with his psyche). Still had the vibe of an assassin. He didn't touched gloves. Shaved his head like a warrior, etc...

[MD]

YES I was worried about Barnett at the weigh-in but not because of his mind, but his body. Guy looks like a bag of milk, which worried me and I was NOT as confident in my bet (but had nothing to do with his psyche). Still had the vibe of an assassin. He didn't touched gloves. Shaved his head like a warrior, etc...

This post tells me that what you look for as a psychological edge is completely disconnected from what I would consider to be a psychological edge.

[TheCalculator]

This post tells me that what you look for as a psychological edge is completely disconnected from what I would consider to be a psychological edge.

That's probably very true. But something tells me that if we sat down for a hour to hash it out... we might arrive to similar conclusions.

[Catchn_Picks]

First of all The Calculator major props for opening up such an interesting thread. It has brought out the best and brightest MMA cappers around here to comment. Interesting post.

The truth is everybody is right, imo! lol I mean sure all betting is one continuous motion of information changing constantly. Live betting gives you all new information to restructure your opinion with...The walk out is information...if they touch gloves ...it is endless. But compared to those who try to figure out the motivation for say a football team, MMA gives you only the need to figure out a couple of fighters (and maybe management). Far less information to digest. Better odds.

On the other hand the reason why technical cappers rely upon the numbers is because it is quantifiable. It is a constant. On the other hand the impact on the bet based upon stats could be dwarfed by the "eye of the tiger" motivation look.

Years ago I was trained by some sharp people at looking at racehorses before they race and learning what the horse was telling them (or any other race goer that wanted to watch). Their results were good. The problem was most times the horse really is not telling you anything. And once in awhile it screams out loud..."BET ME!!!" I saw it many times and it was powerful...not that often though.

You might use your late betting strategy and it could be powerful but probably not that often. So the key may be for you to consider is waiting until the fighters screams "BET ME !!!"

And we have yet another set of fights 9/4 to check it out so it could be fun.

BOL all.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Don't forget to take into account the fighter's walk out music.

[cheeese]

Quick question: Prime Ghandi fights prime Buddha. How do you cap it? They are both pacifists so no 10-25% psych edge. I'm thinking Ghandi -150 because Buddha gasses carrying the extra weight. Maybe Ghandi straight hedged with Buddha in rd 1. Thoughts???

[Beelzebubzy]

Don't forget to take into account the fighter's walk out music.

Old school
post sadollah win Hendricks says he picks winnerz by weigh in eye looks

[MD]

Quick question: Prime Ghandi fights prime Buddha. How do you cap it? They are both pacifists so no 10-25% psych edge. I'm thinking Ghandi -150 because Buddha gasses carrying the extra weight. Maybe Ghandi straight hedged with Buddha in rd 1. Thoughts???

I dunno, but I hope the winner fights Lucas Martins.

[GunShard]

The psychological factor that I noticed is that when a fighter who talks trash before a fight, are most likely to lose their fights.

Chael Sonnen talked trash to Anderson Silva. Sonnen lost both fights.
Dave Herman talked trash to Antonio Nogueira. Herman lost the fight.
Alistair Overeem talked trash to Antonio Silva. Overeem lost the fight.
Nick Diaz talked trash to GSP. Diaz lost the fight.

Maybe it's a just coincidence.

[MD]

The psychological factor that I noticed is that when a fighter who talks trash before a fight, are most likely to lose their fights.

Chael Sonnen talked trash to Anderson Silva. Sonnen lost both fights.
Dave Herman talked trash to Antonio Nogueira. Herman lost the fight.
Alistair Overeem talked trash to Antonio Silva. Overeem lost the fight.
Nick Diaz talked trash to GSP. Diaz lost the fight.

Maybe it's a just coincidence.

Three of those four were squash matches, and the fourth is Overeem/Bigfoot... which was also a squash match.

[TheCalculator]

The psychological factor that I noticed is that when a fighter who talks trash before a fight, are most likely to lose their fights.

Chael Sonnen talked trash to Anderson Silva. Sonnen lost both fights.
Dave Herman talked trash to Antonio Nogueira. Herman lost the fight.
Alistair Overeem talked trash to Antonio Silva. Overeem lost the fight.
Nick Diaz talked trash to GSP. Diaz lost the fight.

Maybe it's a just coincidence.

Nice.

I call that the "pride activates the fall" karmic factor. I'm going to piss off Nunya and give that a -13% edge.

[Noleafclover]

Chicken or egg. Fighters who are at a disadvantage/likely to lose feel the need to try to get into opponents head for extra advantage.

[GunShard]

Nice.

I call that the "pride activates the fall" karmic factor. I'm going to piss off Nunya and give that a -13% edge.

lol

[NunyaBidness]

Silly? So what are saying? Wait 5 years to build up the data?

You're completely missing the point.

I'm not talking about sample size or building a database of whatever color a fighters mood ring is.

I'm saying you are doing post hoc analysis which results in hindsight bias and muddled conclusions.

The entire field of cognitive psychology should be studied by a handicapper. But not to study the fighters, so much as to study the sort of cognitive mistakes we make (and you are making here) as handicappers. The anchoring heuristic is particularly interesting to me, especially when working with lines that have already been released.

[TheCalculator]

I have studied cognitive psychology since it helps me be a stronger marketer/business owner. However I still have a lot to learn.

For the record -- my observations were made BEFORE the fight and I didn't give them enough weight and that was my mistake.

I know what you are talking about... the people who trained me in c.p. call it "seeing only validation".

And I'm working HARD on overcoming my remaining focalism. FAWK FOCALISM!!!

[Noleafclover]

The entire field of cognitive psychology should be studied by a handicapper. But not to study the fighters, so much as to study the sort of cognitive mistakes we make (and you are making here) as handicappers. The anchoring heuristic is particularly interesting to me, especially when working with lines that have already been released.

Any reading recommendations?

[Vaughany]

Don't forget to take into account the fighter's walk out music.

Quick question: Prime Ghandi fights prime Buddha. How do you cap it? They are both pacifists so no 10-25% psych edge. I'm thinking Ghandi -150 because Buddha gasses carrying the extra weight. Maybe Ghandi straight hedged with Buddha in rd 1. Thoughts???

Lmao

[Vaughany]

The psychological factor that I noticed is that when a fighter who talks trash before a fight, are most likely to lose their fights.

Chael Sonnen talked trash to Anderson Silva. Sonnen lost both fights.
Dave Herman talked trash to Antonio Nogueira. Herman lost the fight.
Alistair Overeem talked trash to Antonio Silva. Overeem lost the fight.
Nick Diaz talked trash to GSP. Diaz lost the fight.

Maybe it's a just coincidence.

Lmaaaooooooooooo



jeezus, i nearly love gunshard as much as i love josheph gordon levitt!

[Vaughany]

Any reading recommendations?

Gunshards autobiography