Wrestlemania Thread

Sacrelicious · 03-11-13, 10:46 PM

Also worth noting, initial plans was for Swagger to go over Del Rio. I was unsure this would occur due to the DUI of Swagger and WWE's opinion on these type of things, but especially after tonight it becomes more and more clear that due to bad booking, and more importantly, bad scripting that Del Rio is not getting over. Very up in the air for this one, could be booked to go either way, we will only know as we approach WM weekend.

nlin · 03-11-13, 11:34 PM

Didn't even know you could bet on WWE, lol.

Will be tailing you though, you've been spot on in your last couple analyses.

Sacrelicious · 03-12-13, 12:03 AM

Its really simple, you follow the news and you already know who are going to win. If you do not, don't make the bet, then follow the market line and make your bets according on how the market moves. This is the reason I wad not betting on The Shield at the Elimination Chamber PPV, I had no actual insider info on them winning, yet the line was about +300, yet I had no insider info on the babyfaces winning at -300, by the time the first few bets came to roll in, the line was higher then -1000 babyfaces, at that time there was little point betting except as parlay filler.

Dave Meltzer has a pretty good pulse on things, and when the betting lines are against what he discusses, best to avoid and be careful on. These usually represent a situation where Vinny Mac might make a last minute decision and penetrate things up.

Appreciate the compliments on my analyses though

.

Sacrelicious · 03-12-13, 12:11 AM

The two most interesting line to watch will be what I suspect they will make a match for in Ryback vs Mark Henry, Ryback can not work and I think they figured that out and dropped the ball on him a few months ago hard, but Mark Henry is clearly in the end of his career.

Also, it appears they are going for a Big Show, Sheamus and Orton vs The Shield match, I'm expecting a Randy Orton heel turn in the next month or two. The bitch of it is that Randy Orton has failed 2 wellness tests, so its questionable as to how hard they will push him.

That being said, there is still a month here, anything can happen, you are literally betting on a television show here, but that being said, once you start figuring out how they book shows it is not too complicated.

Sacrelicious · 03-12-13, 12:13 AM

Oi, typos, the line was +1000 babyfaces, and yeah, typos, sorry champs, its late.

Sacrelicious · 03-19-13, 11:38 PM

As of last nights RAW, and listening to the Meltzer podcast it does appear Jericho/Fandango will be doing a match at WM.

At the moment, my WM picks according to the news I'm hearing are:

Fandango goes over Jericho

Shield goes over Babyfaces, theres been a Randy Orton heel turn brewing, the character has been stale for years and he has voiced his opinion on wanting to go heel again. I think this presents an opportunity for him to do so after the match or in the near future, and the WWE has been crazy protective of the shield. I think they go over here.

Ryback goes over Mark Henry.

Taker goes over Punk.

Cena goes over Rock.

And, with the announcement of the new stipulation, WWE is going to make a creative error and have HHH go over Brock Lesnar, I do not know what they are thinking, but I fully expect this to be the case.

All this is subject to change, naturally, but thats where I'm standing on these matches right now. The unknowns are Team Hell No/Ziggler and Big E, and Cesaro/Whoever, and Wade/Whoever, assuming both are on the card, which I think they will likely be.

Stay tuned, I'll provide news as I hear it.

fitguy67 · 03-20-13, 12:32 AM

Appreciate the effort, Sac. I'm actually looking forward to my very first bet on WWE.

What book(s) are essential (or at least useful) for betting on WWE events?

Sacrelicious · 03-20-13, 12:44 AM

Dimes. Fifty dollar limits but you can use them in parlays, these are just early predictions, I dont know a damn thing until after the last RAW has aired.

Sacrelicious · 03-20-13, 12:45 AM

Skybet also offers the same lines, again, fifty dollar limits, the limits suck, but again, if you do some straight bets and then pet them in parlays, it is highly profitable.

Boxscout · 03-20-13, 12:51 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Appreciate the effort, Sac. I'm actually looking forward to my very first bet on WWE.

Me too. Seems like you could make a nice bit of extra money just on Award shows, politics and the WWE. Who knew?

Sacrelicious · 03-20-13, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by Boxscout

Me too. Seems like you could make a nice bit of extra money just on Award shows, politics and the WWE. Who knew?

Yeah I've been following WWE since I was a kid, a guilty pleasure of mine.

The thing is that you will know who will win several matches on a card once you understand how they book fights, the rest, wait for the market to tell you who will win and parlay them for value.

A -1000 bet on a WWE card is shockingly +EV, but due to betting limits, once taken straight up, parlay that shit.

Theres a lot of matches on this years card that can be easily predicted by observing stipulations, but again, one needs to wait until the last raw before the card 2 weeks from now to get a good idea on what will happen.

I suspect Fandango going over Jericho and the Shield going over the babyface team will be the lines that open at reasonable rates, but we shall see.

omalley21 · 03-20-13, 10:22 AM

Thanks Sac, I appreciate the info and recipes.

fitguy67 · 03-20-13, 12:22 PM

seems the lines aren't out yet for the event u're talking about...when they do, will therel be a "WWE" box in the "Fighting" section?? Or are they/will they be somewhere else?

I've always tended to violate the maxim
"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool...than open your mouth {punch your keyboard) and remove all doubt."

NunyaBidness · 03-20-13, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

seems the lines aren't out yet for the event u're talking about...when they do, will therel be a "WWE" box in the "Fighting" section?? Or are they/will they be somewhere else?

They're in the other sports section under Wrestling when they show. Sometimes they're just under futures.

Nova99 · 03-20-13, 01:26 PM

thanks for posting, will keep an eye on it and probably tail, planning to try to attend this year in nj, maybe this can offset the ticket cost.

Sacrelicious · 03-20-13, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

seems the lines aren't out yet for the event u're talking about...when they do, will therel be a "WWE" box in the "Fighting" section?? Or are they/will they be somewhere else?

I've always tended to violate the maxim
"It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool...than open your mouth {punch your keyboard) and remove all doubt."

They usually come out a few days before the show, but with WM being the big show of the year, they might come out during the last week sometime.

Again, all the analysis is totally subject to change, you really dont know whats going on until the last Raw ends, but these are just my suspicions at this point.

fitguy67 · 03-20-13, 08:36 PM

interesting...basically reading between the story-arc lines...kinda' like betting on what-will-happen props related to "The Young and the Restless"...

To see the "writing on the wall" 'ya gotta incorportate the over-riding PT.Barnum/marketing angles as to what result will generate the most sustainable long-term emotion (VERY often it's outrage over yet-another injustice allowing the cheating heels to win, occasionally punctuated with them finally getting what they deserve).

For this ya' gotta log the TV-hours...but if you watch "sharp" lyk you obviously do...you get paid when the surprisingly-obvious $-driven turns in the story arc play out at an event.

I used to watch this shit a lot and feel guilty about it...hell, it's actually a +EV way to polish up your "spidey sense"...for orchestrated entertainment.

Fascinating

Sacrelicious · 03-20-13, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

interesting...basically reading between the story-arc lines...kinda' like betting on what-will-happen props related to "The Young and the Restless"...

To see the "writing on the wall" 'ya gotta incorportate the over-riding PT.Barnum/marketing angles as to what result will generate more emotion (VERY often it's outrage over yet-another injustice allowing the cheating heels to win).

For this ya' gotta log the TV-hours...but if you watch "sharp" lyk you obviously do...you get paid when the surprisingly-obvious $-driven turns in the story arc play out.

I used to watch this shit a lot and feel guilty about it...hell, it's actually a +EV way to polish up your "spidey sense"...for orchestrated entertainment.

Fascinating

Listen to wrestling observer radio, Dave Meltzer is on the ball.

Sacrelicious · 03-21-13, 02:35 PM

Rumor has it that Rock will be booked for the Extreme Rules PPV in May.

Should this be the case, avoid playing Cena. I'll look into this further.

killawookie · 03-21-13, 06:24 PM

Went perfect last year's mania.. parlay paid 10-1 i believe.

My bad.. it was SSlam

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sports/1852832-killawookies-wwe-summerslam-picks-thread.html

nlin · 03-21-13, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by killawookie

Went perfect last year's mania.. parlay paid 10-1 i believe.

My bad.. it was SSlam

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sport...ks-thread.html

Very nice.

Sac already had me interested, but with your post...I'm definitely paying attention now.

dapperandy · 04-07-13, 01:34 PM

Why are Ziggy and Big E. +800 on 5dimes. I can't figure this line out. I don't have time to listen Meltzer audio or anything.

Sacrelicious · 04-07-13, 06:04 PM

Yeah looks like they are probably losing, its one of those matches I have heard nothing about. My full list of plays is in the other wrestlemania thread, page 9 i think.