Anderson -280 vs Weidman +220

[Vaughany]

yeah I thought it was the opposite and Anderson didnt want to fight him?

Although I dont think it was because he was scared of him, but because he realises he aint gettin any younger so might as well fight bigger names where there is more dough like GSP

[jakejd82]

Surprised to see how many people are on Weidman here. I really think this is going to be vintage Silva

[Sacrelicious]

Surprised to see how many people are on Weidman here. I really think this is going to be vintage Silva

The hype machine is more powerful then we may give it credit for.

I'm not interested in betting on the ML for this fight at all, I think there may be some value in props though.

Also, given Wiedman's wrestling pedigree, there may be some opportunities for ML arbing here, though I'm hesitant on that as well.

[Rubber Guard]

I expected a lot of people to like Weidman in this fight. Silva's toughest fight in the UFC was against one of the better wrestlers who was relentless with TDs but got sub'd. Weidman is a good wrestler with some BJJ....so on paper it is easy to see where people would get all happy in the pants over Weidman.

Weidman is so good that he will probably KO him with an elbow if he doesn't feel like tapping Anderson out.

[BIGDAY]

Was hoping Weidman's line was better. No play at those odds.

[Sacrelicious]

Was hoping Weidman's line was better. No play at those odds.

I'm contemplating my play on this fight.

If Weidman's line gets very high, I will likely make a small play, and in theory he should wrestlefuck Silva for a bit, and I arb out live.

Otherwise, no plays here.

[Rubber Guard]

It has moved around a bunch already. But I would expect more swings both ways. Not sure why anyone would want to tie up money now. Unless they have a big play on one or the other.

[Rubber Guard]

I'm contemplating my play on this fight.

If Weidman's line gets very high, I will likely make a small play, and in theory he should wrestlefuck Silva for a bit, and I arb out live.

Otherwise, no plays here.

A small play on Weidman? Then arb live? How could you arb a Silva 1st round KO? I think if Silva wins it pretty much will be in the first 2 rounds. That is if Weidman has the cardio to keep up the TDs and control. Which is an unanswered question.

[eligibletackle]

rubber guard’s posts are mind numbing – I think I read that TRT was the reason behind every outcome in MMA over the past 5 years and that Silva has some type of judo game in the clinch


The matchup is horrible stylistically for Silva. His TDD is not good, especially in open space. He’s a gifted BJJ practitioner but there are holes in his game. He gets by w/ a lithe body / long limbs as evident w/ his sneaky triangles, vicegrip body locks, and ability to do stuff most can’t (like pry lutter off in mount w/ his legs). Silva’s guard is surprisingly passable, he’s not that great at regaining it/let’s too many into side control/mount, and his sweep arsenal consists of telegraphed butterfly sweeps and rudimentary 2 leg pushoffs, and I don’t see either being efficient against somebody w/ Weidman’s top game.

I can understand people laying off since the matchup can be summed up w/ GOAT vs somebody w/ less than 10 pro fights, toughest opponent being the beatable Munoz. If you’re willing to drink the kool-aide I think tremendous value in Weidman.

At +250 it’s a certified Tackle Eligible Play, so make sure to inform a ref. I’m not great at predicting line movement - public money will obviously come in on Silva, it’s just a matter of if/when the sharps attack the Weidman line. I can see the line going down more until the week of the fight when Silva backers decide to place their tickets. Would like to think it gets to +280 again but I don't see it and am more than comfortable taking it +250

[pouyasophy]

I'm contemplating my play on this fight.

If Weidman's line gets very high, I will likely make a small play, and in theory he should wrestlefuck Silva for a bit, and I arb out live.

Otherwise, no plays here.

Keep me updated on what you're going to do Sac...my bankroll has grown exponentially ever since I added you to my "to fade" list....

[pouyasophy]

Canderson is the best fighter ever but still overrated...padding his career with wins over Leites, Forrest, Bonnar, Cote, Irvin, pretty pathetic...

[Rubber Guard]

rubber guard’s posts are mind numbing – I think I read that TRT was the reason behind every outcome in MMA over the past 5 years

Hmmm what would make you say that? I simply said TRT is usually used by past roiders. I doubt Anderson was a roider like Chael, Bonnar, Hendo, Wandy, and so on. It is the reason Overeem now needs it.

After Silva stuffs a TD and jab KOs Weidman, I reserve the right to call all who bet on Weidman, idiots....again. For now, bet how you want. Sling that cash around on Weidman. GSP just said he expects Weidman to not only win, but finish. Now what would he know about that? But either way...wait for the Weidman inside prop. Maybe even Weidman by sub or in the 1st. Get back to me in July on how that all goes for you guys.

[CDMKMP]

People go on and on about wrestling pedigrees, but newsflash, this isn't wrestling.

Chael gave an interesting interview the other day where he broke this topic down. GSP is arguably the best wrestler in all of MMA if you go by takedown stats, and he never wrestled formally. He only uses 1-2 wrestling techniques, each with a couple different setups, but he has perfected them.

Just because you wrestled for a million years doesn't mean you are a better "MMA wrestler." One reason is the first thing you need to do is go and learn all the illegal techniques from wrestling that are now legal in MMA, because those are often the most effective (hence why they were banned in wrestling). So you've spent your entire life trying NOT to do those things or avoid certain situations that are now advantageous.

Obviously a wrestling base is a great asset to have in MMA, but just because you tore it up in Division 1 NCAA doesn't mean it will translate that well unless you can distill it down to the most useful techniques and step your game up in striking/jiujitsu.

[Grabaka]

People go on and on about wrestling pedigrees, but newsflash, this isn't wrestling.

Chael gave an interesting interview the other day where he broke this topic down. GSP is arguably the best wrestler in all of MMA if you go by takedown stats, and he never wrestled formally. He only uses 1-2 wrestling techniques, each with a couple different setups, but he has perfected them.

Just because you wrestled for a million years doesn't mean you are a better "MMA wrestler." One reason is the first thing you need to do is go and learn all the illegal techniques from wrestling that are now legal in MMA, because those are often the most effective (hence why they were banned in wrestling). So you've spent your entire life trying NOT to do those things or avoid certain situations that are now advantageous.

Obviously a wrestling base is a great asset to have in MMA, but just because you tore it up in Division 1 NCAA doesn't mean it will translate that well unless you can distill it down to the most useful techniques and step your game up in striking/jiujitsu.

Yep.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/3/9/4081332/technique-talk-chael-sonnen-mma-wrestling-interview-takedowns-ufc-news

Great interview.

[Rubber Guard]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=IJ2G0t6zzdM#!

[MD]

People go on and on about wrestling pedigrees, but newsflash, this isn't wrestling.

Chael gave an interesting interview the other day where he broke this topic down. GSP is arguably the best wrestler in all of MMA if you go by takedown stats, and he never wrestled formally. He only uses 1-2 wrestling techniques, each with a couple different setups, but he has perfected them.

Just because you wrestled for a million years doesn't mean you are a better "MMA wrestler." One reason is the first thing you need to do is go and learn all the illegal techniques from wrestling that are now legal in MMA, because those are often the most effective (hence why they were banned in wrestling). So you've spent your entire life trying NOT to do those things or avoid certain situations that are now advantageous.

Obviously a wrestling base is a great asset to have in MMA, but just because you tore it up in Division 1 NCAA doesn't mean it will translate that well unless you can distill it down to the most useful techniques and step your game up in striking/jiujitsu.

Isn't that Gleison Tibau? Much higher TDD, and a similar number of takedowns landed.

After Silva stuffs a TD and jab KOs Weidman, I reserve the right to call all who bet on Weidman, idiots....again.

Get over yourself.

[Sacrelicious]

A small play on Weidman? Then arb live? How could you arb a Silva 1st round KO? I think if Silva wins it pretty much will be in the first 2 rounds. That is if Weidman has the cardio to keep up the TDs and control. Which is an unanswered question.

Oh, Silva by rd 1 kockout? Excellent idea for a play. He has had 3 of them in his last 9 fights, and one of them was against Stephan Bonnar,

And Silva is most certainly not the type of fighter to toy with and feel out his oponent for the first round, and usually most of the second, definately not his style. </sarcasm>

Terrible idea.

[Rubber Guard]

Silva could look like he losing and win out of no where with 1 strike. So how does one go about betting Weidman and attempting to feel out if Silva will win or not?

I never said arb out with Silva rd 1. I meant, how will you side with Silva as the fight goes longer?

[Rubber Guard]

Did you bet on Chael and then after he won the first feel no need to arb on that one? Or what?

[rocky16]

In a brief interview with Sportsnet, GSP said he thinks "The All-American" will not only beat Silva, but will also finish him.

“My friend Chris Weidman, when I see him in training, I believe he’s going to beat Anderson Silva,” GSP recently told Sportsnet. “I believe it’s a bad matchup for Anderson Silva. It’s very bad. Not only is he going to beat, I believe he’s going to finish Anderson Silva,” GSP explained. “I believe it’s not going to be too long, that fight. People will be shocked.”

[Rubber Guard]

And the Bonnar example is not a good one. Bonnar had never been stopped on anything other than cuts. So what do you mean 1 of his 1st round stoppages was vs. Bonnar? That is only showing that Anderson finishes when he wants to finish. That is hard to predict. Some fights he will toy. Some he will go for the kill right away. Other he will be getting beat and win quickly later on. It is fairly hard to cap or live bet Anderson.

[Rubber Guard]

In a brief interview with Sportsnet, GSP said he thinks "The All-American" will not only beat Silva, but will also finish him.

“My friend Chris Weidman, when I see him in training, I believe he’s going to beat Anderson Silva,” GSP recently told Sportsnet. “I believe it’s a bad matchup for Anderson Silva. It’s very bad. Not only is he going to beat, I believe he’s going to finish Anderson Silva,” GSP explained. “I believe it’s not going to be too long, that fight. People will be shocked.”

What does GSP know about finishing?

[Sacrelicious]

Yep.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2013/3/9/4081332/technique-talk-chael-sonnen-mma-wrestling-interview-takedowns-ufc-news

Great interview.

Awesome interview, thanks for the link.

[Rubber Guard]

Get over yourself.

Don't be so grumpy. Mr. Paleo Basher.

[MD]

Don't be so grumpy. Mr. Paleo Basher.

I will bash paleo to my dying day. I will also never understand how you could take it so personally that people bet against Anderson.

[rocky16]

Bumping this shit for the phagets who started watching MMA 3 months ago. Getting on their knees everytime they see "Anderson Silva" posted some where. Shit is no game for me. Watching phaget Silva bury you assholes no skin off my back. Go back to playing Nintendo after you lose, I'll be at strip club throwing dimes around on fly honey's.

[SEKTAUR]

In a brief interview with Sportsnet, GSP said he thinks "The All-American" will not only beat Silva, but will also finish him.

“My friend Chris Weidman, when I see him in training, I believe he’s going to beat Anderson Silva,” GSP recently told Sportsnet. “I believe it’s a bad matchup for Anderson Silva. It’s very bad. Not only is he going to beat, I believe he’s going to finish Anderson Silva,” GSP explained. “I believe it’s not going to be too long, that fight. People will be shocked.”

Who cares what GSP thinks. Hes backing up his friend so of course hes gonna amp him up. Thats ok all you Silva haters will learn again who the best fighter in the world is but go ahead bet against him for good odds LOL thats really worked out alot in the last several years. F'n idiots

[SEKTAUR]

Plus boring GSP is about to lose his belt to Hendricks

[raag]

Isn't that Gleison Tibau? Much higher TDD, and a similar number of takedowns landed.

Naw.

GSP:
88% TDD Rate
75% TD Rate

Tibau:
93% TDD Rate
57% TD Rate

GSP has also faced way better takedown artists

[oldscho0led]

Silva got this. GSP next.

[rocky16]

12 more days til new champ.

[Grabaka]

12 more days til new champ.

Amen

[Sacrelicious]

I would not be so confident.

But I believe this to be the worst matchup for Silva possible, don't be so close to count him out though. This is very close to a 50/50 fight imo, but betting wise, the value is on Weidman.

[Rubber Guard]

Has everyone posted their slips yet for Weidman? Eazy money fellas. The most bet Silva opponent ever.

[sideloaded]

I cap every mma fight 50 /50 then bet the underdog. If I win Im f-cking smart. if I lose I at least was on the right side because I took the value play.

This shit is ez son.