I think Marquardt is a complete lock

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  • JKD
    SBR High Roller
    • 01-04-13
    • 149

    #36
    Just wanted to re-iterate what Vaughany said really; you'll probably win this bet and good luck t'ya, but if you keep applying that 'lock' logic over time you'll lose. This card has a BUNCH of locks, almost every fight is mismatched to some extent.. but try putting $10 on each and see how well you do...

    Fact is, if any two fighters fought each other 100 times there's no way one would in all 100. You just have to accept that and work with it. It's not a perfect world, they're human's not Top Trumps and they're fallible. Just think how many fighters have fought each other multiple times and the fights have played out differently each time. That's why odds exist, and that's why you gotta work with them.
    Last edited by JKD; 01-11-13, 02:02 PM.
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    • Rubber Guard
      SBR MVP
      • 06-22-11
      • 1550

      #37
      How many times out of 100 times would Court McGee beat Anderson Silva? Assuming they were both 100% and ready to fight.
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      • JKD
        SBR High Roller
        • 01-04-13
        • 149

        #38
        Probably once or twice. Only takes an injury, a ridiculous judges decision, a bad ref stoppage (Anderson could easily have been DQ'd wrongly for the knee on Chael everyone other than the ref thought hit him in the head for example)...

        How many times do you think Chonan or Okami beat Silva outta 100?
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        • Rubber Guard
          SBR MVP
          • 06-22-11
          • 1550

          #39
          I saw a vast majority see that knee hit the chest. If you can't hit a guy with the top part of your thigh then a lot of people would be getting called on it. The knee hit his chest. His head was up around his waist.

          Yea I see what you are saying. Especially on injury. But even if Anderson tore his ACL he would still beat McGee. Anderson hasn't seen a bad decision yet vs. many more worthy opponents than McGee in what 30 fights? He hasn't saw an injury either. Would that trend continue for 100 straight? I don't know. More than half of those fights would see Anderson taking it serious and ending it in the first round quickly. Maybe first 2 minutes. The only real dominant fighters that saw a fluke injury loss that come to mind is Fedor and Shogun. Rich Franklin broke his arm then proceeded to KO Chuck, so injury doesn't always mean fight is over either.
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          • JKD
            SBR High Roller
            • 01-04-13
            • 149

            #40
            He got DQ'd against Okami completely unnecessarily via brainfart... there's your 1 in 30 fights. Fedor 'lost' to whathisname via the other guy illegally striking him. Sure, he didn't really lose but if you'd bet on him you would have lost.

            I lost my bet on Sakara>Cote a few weeks ago, not to mention a shit loada horrible decisions. These things happen.
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            • Rubber Guard
              SBR MVP
              • 06-22-11
              • 1550

              #41
              Originally posted by JKD
              He got DQ'd against Okami completely unnecessarily via brainfart... there's your 1 in 30 fights
              Yes I know. Vs. a guy who was a top 3 MW for quite some time. A guy who had him down and was on top of him with good top control. So the chances of that happening with a lesser opponent, a much lesser opponent seems like it would go down quite a bit.
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              • JamesKim
                SBR Sharp
                • 09-03-12
                • 392

                #42
                Originally posted by JKD
                Just wanted to re-iterate what Vaughany said really; you'll probably win this bet and good luck t'ya, but if you keep applying that 'lock' logic over time you'll lose. This card has a BUNCH of locks, almost every fight is mismatched to some extent.. but try putting $10 on each and see how well you do...

                Fact is, if any two fighters fought each other 100 times there's no way one would in all 100. You just have to accept that and work with it. It's not a perfect world, they're human's not Top Trumps and they're fallible. Just think how many fighters have fought each other multiple times and the fights have played out differently each time. That's why odds exist, and that's why you gotta work with them.
                The term lock is probably a poor word for MMA or in any sport really. I really do mean it when I say Marquardt wins more than 9/10 times. I think he'd win 95 out of 100 times against Tarec, not because he outclasses Tarec in unbelievable way, but because Tarec has no path of victory as I tried to explain. Maybe that number is a bit optimistic, since I'm sure the chances of DQ and injuries are pretty good in MMA. But I still see huge value discrepency in what I think Marquardt is worth and what his odds are.
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                • Rubber Guard
                  SBR MVP
                  • 06-22-11
                  • 1550

                  #43
                  I don't think Marquardt is quality enough to say he wins 95 out of 100 vs. anyone decent.

                  When you get a Fedor vs. some of the goofs he has fought over the years....those are 95/100 type fights.
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                  • JKD
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 01-04-13
                    • 149

                    #44
                    Originally posted by Rubber Guard
                    Yes I know. Vs. a guy who was a top 3 MW for quite some time. A guy who had him down and was on top of him with good top control. So the chances of that happening with a lesser opponent, a much lesser opponent seems like it would go down quite a bit.
                    Yeah exactly, chances are that they would. That's the whole point.
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                    • JKD
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-04-13
                      • 149

                      #45
                      Originally posted by JamesKim
                      The term lock is probably a poor word for MMA or in any sport really. I really do mean it when I say Marquardt wins more than 9/10 times. I think he'd win 95 out of 100 times against Tarec, not because he outclasses Tarec in unbelievable way, but because Tarec has no path of victory as I tried to explain. Maybe that number is a bit optimistic, since I'm sure the chances of DQ and injuries are pretty good in MMA. But I still see huge value discrepency in what I think Marquardt is worth and what his odds are.
                      He does have a path to victory, it's stay on the outside and use his range; circle off the fence, test Nate's gas tank in cutting to 170 for only the 2nd time and hope the judges like him.

                      I do think Nate should win, he has a ton of power and explosiveness and if he can cut Tarec off he should be able to overwhelm him. But long-term you should listen to what some of the people like Vaughney, Oblivian etc are advising you, they're not trying to be dicks in contradicting you they're experienced/successful gamblers giving some decent advice.
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                      • JamesKim
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 09-03-12
                        • 392

                        #46
                        Originally posted by JKD
                        He got DQ'd against Okami completely unnecessarily via brainfart... there's your 1 in 30 fights. Fedor 'lost' to whathisname via the other guy illegally striking him. Sure, he didn't really lose but if you'd bet on him you would have lost.

                        I lost my bet on Sakara>Cote a few weeks ago, not to mention a shit loada horrible decisions. These things happen.
                        I lost on Sakara too, as well as the Arlovski bullshit. I think bad judging hurts everyone in MMA betting :/

                        Originally posted by JKD
                        He does have a path to victory, it's stay on the outside and use his range; circle off the fence, test Nate's gas tank in cutting to 170 for only the 2nd time and hope the judges like him.

                        I do think Nate should win, he has a ton of power and explosiveness and if he can cut Tarec off he should be able to overwhelm him. But long-term you should listen to what some of the people like Vaughney, Oblivian etc are advising you, they're not trying to be dicks in contradicting you they're experienced/successful gamblers giving some decent advice.
                        I don't understand how Tarec is going to completely fail pulling that gameplan against Woodley and then suddenly make it work against Nate. As I've said I understand what they're trying to tell me, and I'm very aware of why their advices are good, but I've decided that I cap Marquardt as a much heavier favorite than the odds so I will play him as such.

                        In order for Tarec to win, he needs to stop Marquardt from cutting him off while oustriking him (who I believe is quite a better striker than he is) at the same time. He needs to avoid the knockout shots while shaking off the bigger/stronger/more experienced grappler from clinching and taking him down. He then needs to repeat this act for 5 rounds straight on a guy whose shown no cardio issue in a high paced 4 round fight in his last fight. This is combined with the fact that Tarec has admitted that he has nerve issues in big fights, while Marquardt has vast high profile fight experience.
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                        • Kaladarus
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-11-09
                          • 1876

                          #47
                          I play these high price lines all the time. This one is not really one that I feel is that great. Marquardt has 10 losses in his record and he hasn't really beat anyone good. He also has not proved himself at 170.

                          Going to his last fight, was he dominating Woodley? Woodley is a great decision winning fighter, but he wins 3 round decisions and is usually gassed to the point that he loses the 3rd round. Marquardt finished him in the 4th. Sure the KO was impressive, but Woodley was beyond tired and has no stand up.

                          For the Dan Miller fight... Marquardt beat Dan Miller...

                          Other than that he's lost to Okami by not fighting a smart fight, beat Palhares because Palhares was not defending himself and got dominated by Sonnen. Before that he had 3 wins against 2 guys who were really undersized for the weight class and 1 guy who isn't even in the UFC. No good wins ever.

                          When it comes time to bet this fight though, Marquardt has the tools to get it done. His fight IQ and previous performances though make it really hard for me to lay that high price. Marquardt has shown in many fights that he is willing to play the opponents game and this may cost him.
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                          • MD
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 01-31-12
                            • 9728

                            #48
                            Originally posted by Kaladarus
                            I play these high price lines all the time. This one is not really one that I feel is that great. Marquardt has 10 losses in his record and he hasn't really beat anyone good. He also has not proved himself at 170.

                            Going to his last fight, was he dominating Woodley? Woodley is a great decision winning fighter, but he wins 3 round decisions and is usually gassed to the point that he loses the 3rd round. Marquardt finished him in the 4th. Sure the KO was impressive, but Woodley was beyond tired and has no stand up.

                            For the Dan Miller fight... Marquardt beat Dan Miller...

                            Other than that he's lost to Okami by not fighting a smart fight, beat Palhares because Palhares was not defending himself and got dominated by Sonnen. Before that he had 3 wins against 2 guys who were really undersized for the weight class and 1 guy who isn't even in the UFC. No good wins ever.

                            When it comes time to bet this fight though, Marquardt has the tools to get it done. His fight IQ and previous performances though make it really hard for me to lay that high price. Marquardt has shown in many fights that he is willing to play the opponents game and this may cost him.
                            He has four losses in the last nine years, one of which was a horrendous ref-induced loss to Thales Leites in a fight he deserved to win, or draw at worst. He has only been finished in the last nine years by Anderson Silva, and lost two decisions to Okami and Sonnen, both elite. Please don't wikicap this fight.

                            As for "beating anyone good", he KO'd Maia, Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley. ???.
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                            • MD
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-31-12
                              • 9728

                              #49
                              Originally posted by Kaladarus
                              Going to his last fight, was he dominating Woodley? Woodley is a great decision winning fighter, but he wins 3 round decisions and is usually gassed to the point that he loses the 3rd round. Marquardt finished him in the 4th. Sure the KO was impressive, but Woodley was beyond tired and has no stand up.
                              Uhm, Woodley lost the first and second rounds, won the third round decisively, and then was finished in the fourth.
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                              • Crassus
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-08-12
                                • 1538

                                #50
                                Originally posted by MD
                                He has four losses in the last nine years, one of which was a horrendous ref-induced loss to Thales Leites in a fight he deserved to win, or draw at worst. He has only been finished in the last nine years by Anderson Silva, and lost two decisions to Okami and Sonnen, both elite. Please don't wikicap this fight.

                                As for "beating anyone good", he KO'd Maia, Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley. ???.
                                Granted the Palhares KO should always have an asterisk on it.
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                                • MMAbetMASTA
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-24-11
                                  • 1931

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Vaughany
                                  what's the difference between a "lock" brah and a "complete lock"? Is a lock 100% and a complete lock 200%?
                                  "Super mega lock - there's a difference" - Gabe
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                                  • MMAbetMASTA
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-24-11
                                    • 1931

                                    #52
                                    Can't knock anyone for taking nate at that price, I do think he's gonna win.

                                    However, stylistically this could be a bad match up if it stays standing and tarec's cardio is in check.

                                    For a European, Tarec has some of the best mma wrestling and his tdd is impressive. He put up some good defensive wrestling against twood and has shown some solid tdd against others. I don't see him being effective with offensive wrestling as nate is a monster in size with legit tdd as well. Yet I don't see nate as a monster takedown artist, he's landed some nice ones but I'm not sold he can ground tarec with consistency.

                                    Therefore if the match is mostly on the feet this fight is much, much closer to evens, possibly even favoring saff. Tarec has looked slow in the 3rd and this is 5, so if he can't keep pace then I can see nate gaining the upper hand in the striking in the latter rounds. However if he's fresh and composed I can't say a champion kickboxer on the euro circut and a karate ka will be outstruck by nate.

                                    Ultimately I think nate's size is gonna be tarec's undoing (I actually think saff looks a little small for ww) and will prob get a late stoppage.

                                    BUT! in the upper +200 range I think the value is on tarec, not nate. Can't knock plays on either side tho, this is gonna be an interesting fight and both dudes are underrated imo.. GL meng.
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                                    • JamesKim
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 09-03-12
                                      • 392

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA
                                      Can't knock anyone for taking nate at that price, I do think he's gonna win.

                                      However, stylistically this could be a bad match up if it stays standing and tarec's cardio is in check.

                                      For a European, Tarec has some of the best mma wrestling and his tdd is impressive. He put up some good defensive wrestling against twood and has shown some solid tdd against others. I don't see him being effective with offensive wrestling as nate is a monster in size with legit tdd as well. Yet I don't see nate as a monster takedown artist, he's landed some nice ones but I'm not sold he can ground tarec with consistency.

                                      Therefore if the match is mostly on the feet this fight is much, much closer to evens, possibly even favoring saff. Tarec has looked slow in the 3rd and this is 5, so if he can't keep pace then I can see nate gaining the upper hand in the striking in the latter rounds. However if he's fresh and composed I can't say a champion kickboxer on the euro circut and a karate ka will be outstruck by nate.

                                      Ultimately I think nate's size is gonna be tarec's undoing (I actually think saff looks a little small for ww) and will prob get a late stoppage.

                                      BUT! in the upper +200 range I think the value is on tarec, not nate. Can't knock plays on either side tho, this is gonna be an interesting fight and both dudes are underrated imo.. GL meng.
                                      Finally someone who reasonably explains his position. I can't say I agree with you that Marquardt will get oustruck by Saff, and I don't think Saff could avoid the clinching game of Marquardt even if he has success on the feet.

                                      I'm probably going to get shit on all over this thread after the fight when it looks somewhat competitive, even though I have been adamant from the beginning that I don't think Nate is going to completely destroy Tarec, I just feel that Tarec has no way to win the decision or get a stoppage.
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                                      • MMAbetMASTA
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 05-24-11
                                        • 1931

                                        #54
                                        Good point with the clinch game, that's something to consider that I haven't factored too much.. He could def tire saff out there and then light him up once he slows down in later rounds ala gouvia or twood...

                                        I do think this fight will be competitive, but who cares if you get shitt on, its the way this site works. If shit happens, take a shit on someone else - you'll feel better.
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                                        • Kaladarus
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-11-09
                                          • 1876

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by MD
                                          Uhm, Woodley lost the first and second rounds, won the third round decisively, and then was finished in the fourth.
                                          He has a gas tank for 2 rounds, but conserved it the best he could to try and go 5 since he is a decision fighter. Obviously this fight was different..

                                          His tank was the same though.
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                                          • Kaladarus
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-11-09
                                            • 1876

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by MD
                                            He has four losses in the last nine years, one of which was a horrendous ref-induced loss to Thales Leites in a fight he deserved to win, or draw at worst. He has only been finished in the last nine years by Anderson Silva, and lost two decisions to Okami and Sonnen, both elite. Please don't wikicap this fight.

                                            As for "beating anyone good", he KO'd Maia, Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley. ???.
                                            Maia and Kampmann were undersized MW. Palhares is not that good and was finished because of his stupidity with talking to the ref. Woodley is not a top 10 170lb fighter and there are probably 20+ fighters at WW that would beat him in a 5round fight.

                                            Maia, Kampann, Palhares and Woodley are or were one dimensional and or undersized at the time Marquardt fought them.

                                            Not saying Marquardt isn't good. He has just not beat top level competition ever.
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                                            • Mercersux
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 05-03-12
                                              • 1516

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by MD
                                              He has four losses in the last nine years, one of which was a horrendous ref-induced loss to Thales Leites in a fight he deserved to win, or draw at worst. He has only been finished in the last nine years by Anderson Silva, and lost two decisions to Okami and Sonnen, both elite. Please don't wikicap this fight.

                                              As for "beating anyone good", he KO'd Maia, Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley. ???.
                                              I w3as a victim of that stupid ass Leites two point deduction robbery. Herb Dean really ****** up that match bad. Cost me a grand parlay. Terribly disappointing ppv. Swick giving Marcus Davis an L on the same card was a nice win for me tho. That same bs win against Marquardt propelled Leites to his title shot with Silva....HORRENDOUS.
                                              Comment
                                              • MD
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 01-31-12
                                                • 9728

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Kaladarus
                                                He has a gas tank for 2 rounds, but conserved it the best he could to try and go 5 since he is a decision fighter. Obviously this fight was different..

                                                His tank was the same though.
                                                That's ludicrous. Did you watch the fight? The pace they fought at was not one meant to conserve a gas tank.

                                                Originally posted by Kaladarus
                                                Maia and Kampmann were undersized MW. Palhares is not that good and was finished because of his stupidity with talking to the ref. Woodley is not a top 10 170lb fighter and there are probably 20+ fighters at WW that would beat him in a 5round fight.

                                                Maia, Kampann, Palhares and Woodley are or were one dimensional and or undersized at the time Marquardt fought them.

                                                Not saying Marquardt isn't good. He has just not beat top level competition ever.
                                                Marquardt was also an undersized MW. Invalid. Palhares is good. Not top ten, but certainly very good. Woodley was top 20 when Marquardt beat him. The only one of those fighters who could be considered one-dimensional is Woodley, and given his good striking display against Marquardt, I'd tend to think he isn't. Marquardt was also undersized, so the "undersized" argument is invalid, unless you believe that he loses points for not fighting people bigger than himself?
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                                                • Vaughany
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                  • 45563

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by Kaladarus
                                                  Maia and Kampmann were undersized MW. Palhares is not that good and was finished because of his stupidity with talking to the ref. Woodley is not a top 10 170lb fighter and there are probably 20+ fighters at WW that would beat him in a 5round fight.

                                                  Maia, Kampann, Palhares and Woodley are or were one dimensional and or undersized at the time Marquardt fought them.

                                                  Not saying Marquardt isn't good. He has just not beat top level competition ever.
                                                  could one not argue tht Nate was also undersized then seein as he fights at same weight as maia and Kampmann now?
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                                                  • Vaughany
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                    • 45563

                                                    #60
                                                    yeah Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley are legit wins for sure...especially seeing as he finished them all. He didnt finish Dan Miller but then who does? And he clearly won each round. Cant bet him at these odds but cant knock those who are backin him
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                                                    • Educ8d Degener8
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-12-10
                                                      • 3177

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                      yeah Palhares, Kampmann and Woodley are legit wins for sure...especially seeing as he finished them all. He didnt finish Dan Miller but then who does? And he clearly won each round. Cant bet him at these odds but cant knock those who are backin him
                                                      Dude he's a 95% lock. Don't over think things. Pick winnerz!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Beelzebubzy
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 06-06-11
                                                        • 6995

                                                        #62
                                                        The Paul Harris win doesn't count. That dude is a screw up
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                                                        • Beelzebubzy
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 06-06-11
                                                          • 6995

                                                          #63
                                                          Lock?
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                                                          • v1y
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-02-11
                                                            • 1138

                                                            #64
                                                            this play isn't looking so hot right now lol.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • NunyaBidness
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 07-26-09
                                                              • 9345

                                                              #65
                                                              Sometimes even 5%ers cash.
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                                                              • JamesKim
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 09-03-12
                                                                • 392

                                                                #66
                                                                I'm here to take the heat now, flame away.

                                                                Impressed with Tarec, what a bright future. I'll never forget this, a lesson well learnt.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Educ8d Degener8
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-12-10
                                                                  • 3177

                                                                  #67
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                                                                  • Educ8d Degener8
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-12-10
                                                                    • 3177

                                                                    #68
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                                                                    • JuicedUp
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-20-10
                                                                      • 3396

                                                                      #69
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                                                                      • JamesKim
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 09-03-12
                                                                        • 392

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Well I'm gonna go drinking or something, cya.
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