Originally posted by KushMoney
Grabaka, did you get kill last ufc card?
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ooooops too late, I took the Dos Santos wins by KO/TKO -135. It might come back down.
Grabaka, did you get kill last ufc card?Comment -
Nope....it may seem like i did but i did not posted my record since there was 70% of live betting and i knew you guys wouldnt believe me. But i won 1000 and a week back 2050.Comment -
Ross Pearson + Rory Macdonald $159.58 200 W 319.16 Ross Pearson $100.00 120 W 120.00 Brad Scott $250.00 150 L -250.00 Colin Fletcher $120.00 -120 L -120.00 Jonathan Brookins $100.00 210 L -100.00 Cody Donovan $100.00 110 W 110.00 Jared Papazian $150.00 140 L -150.00 Reuben Duran $120.00 -120 L -120.00 Manuel Rodriguez $250.00 165 L -250.00 Houston Rockets -2.5 $214.00 -107 W 200.00 Alexander Volkov $150.00 100 W 150.00 Wilkinson vs Loughnane Dec $125.00 -125 W 100.00 Wilkinson Freeroll $2.00 100 W 2.00 Bacz vs Pierce Ends 3rd Round $20.00 1,100 L -20.00 Joey Beltran $100.00 150 W 150.00 Joey Beltran $50.00 120 W 60.00 Rousimar Palhares $50.00 150 L -50.00 Colin Fletcher $100.00 100 L -100.00 Colin Fletcher +3.5 $200.00 300 L -200.00 Brad Scott Dec $100.00 300 L -100.00 Brad Scott $200.00 200 L -200.00 Pearson vs Sotiropulous Ends 3rd Round $40.00 550 W 220.00 Ross Pearson -9.5 $75.00 -150 W 50.00 Ross Pearson KO $150.00 -300 W 50.00 Jonathan Brookins Dec $100.00 300 L -100.00 Jonathan Brookins +3.5 $50.00 150 L -50.00 Jonathan Brookins ML $50.00 240 L -50.00 Barry vs SDR Ends 2nd Round $30.00 125 W 37.50 Pat Barry $100.00 250 W 250.00 Colton Smith $100.00 180 W 180.00 Colton Smith Dec $100.00 300 W 300.00 Mike Ricci $50.00 220 L -50.00 Mike Ricci +3.5 $25.00 800 L -25.00 Not Parke ITD + Khabilov + Pearson KO + Nelson vs Mittrione ITD $50.00 962 W 481.06 Matt Mittrione $50.00 220 L -50.00 Matt Mittrione ITD $50.00 396 L -50.00 Colton Smith + Pyle vs Head O2.5 $50.00 562 L -50.00 Mike Rio $20.00 100 W 20.00 Pyle vs Head O2.5 $150.00 110 L -150.00 Colton vs Ricci O2.5 + Head + Waldburger + Bedford $20.00 1,117 L -20.00 Minnesota Timberwolves -5 $108.00 -108 W 100.00 Carlos Molina $100.00 630 L -100.00 Carlos Molina Over 9.5 $150.00 150 W 225.00 Mike Pyle $130.00 -130 W 100.00 Colton Smith $100.00 245 W 245.00 James Head $80.00 180 L -80.00 Green Bay Packers -3 $60.00 104 W 62.40 New England Patriots ML Paddy $132.91 -110 L -132.91 New England Patriots ML Betcris $185.00 150 L -185.00 Dolphins + Carlos Molina O9.5 + Timberwolves + Waldburger + Bedford $10.00 1,580 W 158.00 Oklahoma City -4.0 $110.00 -110 W 100.00 Costas Philippou $130.00 -130 P Cleveland Cavaliers -4.0 & Live $380.95 100 L -380.95 Golden State Warriors -3 $220.00 -110 L -220.00 Golden State Warriors +3 $120.00 -120 L -120.00 Golden State Warriors ML $250.00 139 L -250.00 Sacramento Kings ML $100.00 141 W 141.00 Sacramento Kings ML $80.00 100 W 80.00 Miami Heat -5.0 Fisrt Half $165.00 -110 W 150.00 Alan Belcher $250.00 130 P Eddie Wineland $110.00 -110 P Comment -
Yeah I bought the Eric Silva hype, almost lost 2.8g, lucky for me, the 'steam' save me. Now I have 4.7g on JDS, not sure when to hedge it. Not sure which line will get steam, hoping for JDS of course.Originally posted by GrabakaComment -
Im glad Giga....im sure the hype will let you hedge this time again. Dont go greedy its a hard fight for JDS.Comment -
I believe you, I don't see the benefit lying about win or lost. How long have you being doing mma bet?Originally posted by Grabaka
Nice wins, I have never try live betting yet, I am a bit of a noob.
I always enjoy your pick with $$$ amount because I respect your picks. I respect Jesus picks and MR219 at Cover forum too but they are doing so bad, I am not sure if they running bad or their analysis is off. I am doing pretty good myself but I am not 100% sure if is skill or luck. Next year, mma will be even bigger, I should able to tell end of 2013 if is luck or skill. I hope you stick around to continue to share your picks with us.Comment -
Thank you man. 3 Years doing mma betting. All done starting with $200 so im a proud papa.
I will never claim to be the best, my analysis are often shallow (specially lately in this hot streak).
My analysis i think have been wrong lately but i have done great at live betting and done my best year by far in 2012 (the year of the dog). I dont know what to say because i do consider myself wild and lucky (sp. 2012)...of course i know all these fighters and im huge fan of the sport so i have skill too but i cant deny the luck either.Comment -
BTW i always share my picks first at zewkey and then here so when im having too much work (regular work) i just post/update them over there. Specially live.Comment -
I agree.Originally posted by ShotgunRua
Cain could be over hyped and over rated than JDS for fighting weaker opponents like Lesnar.
Just like there's a difference between fighting noobs compared to fighting UFC caliber fighters. Fight records can become over rated or under rated.Comment -
Same could be said about JDS. Fact of the matter is heavyweight division was not deep. Both guys beat sub par competition.Comment -
Just read this as well. Does this change your mind even though there's so much value on Cain?Originally posted by getlucky2win
(I agree with OP's premise but after reading this article, can't seem to bet against JDS..)Comment -
Nice Grabaka I'm also on Phillipou, Wineland, and Belcher
That's a Kushmoney fukkin parlay right there!!
Just threw 100 on it.
Wins $580Comment -
I'm also on Wineland and Belcher. It should be a good night for cashing some picks.Comment -
Theres no chance in hell this fight goes 5 rounds on damage alone its not really possible....cain gets the takedown and works ovee jds or cain probably gets battered on the feet but no way in hell this goes all 5 thats just throwing money away.Comment -
There a chance in hell bro. Havent you ever seen 2 heavyweights tired? Anyway, you do you.Comment -
Nice bro Good luckOriginally posted by KushMoneyComment -
I don't think you should be betting if this is your thought process.Originally posted by KushMoney
It is IMPOSSIBLE for you to think that both Cain and JDS are value in this fight.Comment -
Originally posted by Grabaka
This is what im worried about, If the fight goes the distance its going to break almost all of my parlay combos. If the fight does go 5 rounds it will be cain that wins I dont really wanna hedge out of my parlays though, I'm thinking about playing fight starts round 2 or over 1.5 at +odds.Comment -
yep, or you could use livebetting on Bookmaker if you have account there and play fight goes distance if it goes two rounds and looks like it may go distanceComment -
Cain has had problems time and time again with good strikers if you look at his previous opponents the only two top strikers he's faced have been Cheik Kongo and Dos Santos and both of them gave him problems so he's probably not gonna win unless he can completely swarm JDS with wrestling and ground and pound for the majority of the fight which I can't see him doing against Dos Santos who has good takedown defense and a danger zone. Cain gonna have a lot harder time winning the fight then JDS who can just throw one punch at you and change the fight in his favor. Cain has to close the distance every time and that leaves him open for JDS to just throw a haymaker so it makes it dangerous.
Both main events are gonna be pretty competitive but I think JDS TKO + Jim Miller Decision
I think JDS has a better chance at victoryComment -
I wouldnt be too worried. Slim chance but teaserpleaser was pissing my play and saying theres zero chance. A bit of a stretchOriginally posted by Dwil125Comment -
Umm.. it isn't impossible to think that, because there is.. or was value on both sides in this fight. Caught JDS Inside the distance recently and now will eventually bet Cain Velasquez ML before the event starts.Originally posted by fattytrellis
I will get a good number bet small and hedge out of my JDS bet or win my initial wager on Junior ITD.Comment -
You initially said that you thought there was value on JDS to win and Cain to win.Originally posted by KushMoney
At the odds available this is mathematically impossible.
Even if you beleived the value was solely in JDS inside the distance and Cain to win outright, the value in both is so so marginal that I fail to believe you know how to price anything up.Comment -
JDS is going to win. Only question is to who to parlay him with.Comment -
Man some people on this forum are so negative, it's really sad.Originally posted by fattytrellisComment -
Your entire theory falls short at the beginning when you mention square money having any effect on the price of this fight.
The true value of Cain is what the fight closes at on fight night. If you can get in at a better number at some point before that then you have value.
MMA lines are nothing like they were 5 years ago when a number could be off by 80 cents, they are pretty sharp these days.Comment -
Surprised to see how how the Cain-JDS line has been moving. Figured it wouldn't have gone higher than +160 but up to +170 @ my book. Here's hoping for hopefully +200 and grab the Cain ITD prop.Comment -
They're negative because they don't understand the concepts of value and bankroll management.Originally posted by Bradbatross
Once they improve those deficiencies, they can get back to positive territory.Comment -
Originally posted by Bumble29
MMA lines are nothing like they were 5 years ago when a number could be off by 400 cents, now they're only off by 150 or so.Comment -
u sound like a sharp guy, please tell me who sets all the openers.Originally posted by NunyaBidnessComment -
The first fight showed that Velasquez indeed has a very suspect chin. I took Velasquez the first fight pretty much just because of the hype around his collegiate wrestling. I thought Velasquez could get the takedown at will and that he could hold his own standing against anyone based on TKO's of Big Nog and Brock(What the heck was I thinking?) Really if we look at who has Cain fought whose strength is standing and actually wants to keep it standing with him we only get Kongo and JDS himself, and last time I checked Cain didn't have a torn meniscus when Kongo nearly KO'ed him.
On JDS' side, he's fought several fighters who would have loved to have taken him down (Nelson, Mir, Carwin, Gonzaga, Werdum, Cain himself), and in his near 10 fight UFC career I've never once seen him take any damage on the ground. I don't even recall him having to pull any type of guard, he's always been able to pop right back up if he lost his balance.
So this time around, I'm taking JDS. I just don't think it's a smart move to bet against a guy who's never been in trouble on the ground in the UFC and who can pretty much thrash the other guy standing up. Why put your hope on a single surgery? How do you know that's enough for Cain to help him win the fight? Too much of a gamble atnot nearly good enough odds. That said the torn meniscus really does bother me, not to mention the defiling of the easter island monument. So I'm only going 1.8u to win 1u. BOL.Comment -
All I'm getting out of the OP's argument is that he wants to fade the public-induced shift on the line to -185, but ignore the first fight results completely. However if you ignore the first fight's results, you can't very well take the opening line and subsequent movement at face value either, and seeing as that's the baseline by which the -185 is being judged, the entire argument falls apart...Comment -
I had to bump you for pissing in my bet.Originally posted by teaserpleaserComment -
Great call grabaka. I didn't see anyone else make that play.Comment -
That means you weren't paying attention.Originally posted by PunisherINDComment
